There has been a lot of talk about Marvel losing sales to DC. Marvel has been doing a variety of things with their comic line that have caused controversy recently. Fans of either side of these issues have been very passionate Rather than debate we decided to sort out the facts of what is happening and look at sales data. The data used was from Chomiccron.com which houses comic sales data of all the Diamond Distributor retailers going back for many years. We then tasked the Toylab data team aka The Black Octopus team with analyzing the data.
We wanted Facts and.... we got them!
Update: 2/6/2017
Marvel sales have continued on a tragically downward spiral. Meanwhile major retailers have begun issuing public letters imploring Marvel to tone down its politics and return to storytelling. The total rejection of the hyper political story telling in Civil War 2 is being cited as a major cause of the events sales woes. The other major reason is the lack of original characters left in their books.
Bleeding Cool is reporting that the Marvel recently finished a summit where they will radically alter course. Apparently, a major talking point at the summit is what DC was doing with Rebirth as to what they were doing. The plan after the summit was for original characters to return. "Marvel brings back the X-Men line with a bang, to expect a return to more of a status quo for titles such as Thor, Iron Man, Hulk and more. A more familiar looking Marvel Universe by the autumn – although, just as with Captain America, as classic-look-characters return, expect new characters to keep a number of their books."
While the company is planning on going on less political tangent it seems they are still locked into the Secret Empire story line. A story line that has already created great lamentation and groans among the fan base. However the story is too far along for them to change course now.
My opinion on all of this:
Sounds great!
I like a lot of the new characters and I am fine with them staying. If the company could keep some of its original characters around though that would be great TOO. Also I think its fine to get political from time to time however the problem with writers like Nick Spencer is that its all they do. Right now the world is full of heated political debate everywhere and I think one reason people buy comics is for escapism or at least to explore things in a different way. Getting a barrage of politics on the comic shelf is a good way to keep people out of comic book stores (Which is exactly what has been happening). I think there is plenty of room for political discourse and certainly for criticism for things going on but pick your places. If your characters are vomiting out political talking points with every issue you have turned your comic into a propagandist rag. Ain't nobody got time for that! Calm down, and pick your spots and above all....ENTERTAIN ME!!!!!!!!!!
THAT IS WHY I AM HERE! ENTERTAIN ME!
Believe it or not most comic readers are smart, read a lot, and already have political opinions. and believe it or not most of us get real political news from "gasp" other sources? Whether it be from a News or "Fake News" source. I really don't think comic book fans need and or want a 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th regurgitation of hot political item of the day. They especially don't want it from a comic book. We don't need to be propagandized to and we know it when your doing it.
Will the shift be enough to stop the surging DC Rebirth? Only time will tell.
I am super excited for the following X-Men returning! and Thor returning! I should also note that to my knowledge no changes have been announced for Wolverine (Likely continue to be Old Man Logan) and the Fantastic Four (I actually have no idea where they are).
I hope they keep these new characters going Ms Marvel, Moon Girl, Miles Morales and Kei Kawade. Honestly though I am not a big fan of Riri Williams to me she is a complete Mary Sue. Also I have grown pretty tired of the Spiderverse characters like Spider-Gwen too. Outside of Miles I think its time to rest them. I would also like to see a return of single solid Guardians of the Galaxy tile instead of 50 crappy ones. That is all just my opinion though and I was not at the summit so we will all have to follow along and see what the company does. Who knows maybe the Secret Empire will do great and they will change gears again and go hyper political.
Also one more thing Marvel, your books are getting pricey. Just a thought but you may need to look at that.
What is the Black Octopus Team
Toylab has built up a group of our bloggers who happen to be data and marketing analyst wizards. They routinely go out into the market place and analyze data to find trends. If you find the Black Octopus team finding interesting or want to join the team you can subscribe to their newsletter on the bottom of the page.
The Top 20 Comics Sales Study:
The Black Octopus Team analyzed November Sales on a unit sales basis. The team decided to focus on the Top 20 sold books as these tend to be the biggest indicator of sales for each company. These are the 20 books that comic community is focusing on in a given month. The Black Octopus team found that Marvel had lost significant market share in this group over the past 5 years.
While it is hard to say that a trend is forming the team did conclude that 2016 marked a low point for Marvel over the 5 year period of analyzed data. While Marvel is still selling well it clearly is not dominating the market place as it has done in years past. In every metric tested DC has risen in to the leading position. This is significant because Marvel had led all categories tested in the previous years and typically by a wide margin.
2016 Ugly Marvel Milestones
Marvel Milestones in the 2016 period were all negative.
Lowest Sales - Over the period analyzed 2016 marked Marvel's lowest unit sales.
Lowest Market Share Position -This was the first November of the 5 period where Marvel had lower market share of the top 20 than DC.
Lowest # of Top 20 Titles - The number of Marvel titles in the top 20 hit a low point of 8. The previous low point was 2013 at 9. In 2015, Marvel had 17 Top 20 tiles meaning that the year over year drop in this category was 9 titles.
2016 Beautiful DC Milestones
DC Milestones in the 2016 period were all positive.
Highest Sales - Over period analyzed 2016 marked highest unit sales by DC.
Highest Market Share Position - First November over period where DC had higher market share than Marvel.
Highest number of Top 20 Titles - DC reached a peak of 10 Top 20 Titles over the period analyzed
Note: Overall units sold were on the low side but not too much below average indicating that DC is picking up at least part of the sales that Marvel is losing. There does appear to be a significant decline in sales from 2015 showing that some sales are being lost from the comic industry as whole.
Percentage of units sold in the top 20 by Marvel vs DC.
Marvel has lost significant market share of the top 20 books sold in 2016.
Marvel held a major lead in this category through the 5 year period right up until 2016. Marvel's biggest lead was in 2015 which coincided with Secret Wars and major Star Wars books that helped the company completely dominate the top 20. In 2016, DC greatly climbed and Marvel shrunk to its lowest point.
Unit Sales:
DC hit a high of 867k units sold in the Top 20 titles while as Marvel hit a low of 712k units sold. 2016 marked the highest point for DC and lowest point for Marvel. Marvel had over a million in sales in the top 20 for 3 of the 5 years analyzed. DC has by far its highest sales in 2016 but did not crack the 1 million mark in any of the 5 years analyzed.
Number of Titles in Top 20:
Marvel reached a dramatic peak in having 17 of the top 20 comics in Nov of 2015. In Nov 2016 the company's fortunes have dramatically inversesd with its lowest showing in the period analyzed of 8.
DC had been sliding downward on this scale while hitting a low in 2015. This trend was reversed in 2016 with the company's highest showing of 10 titles in the Top 20.
Why has Marvel lost market share?
There have been a few reasons cited for the loss of market share and they include:
1) The Inhumans Agenda - There has been a major pushing out characters that Marvel does not own film rights to. This includes the Fantastic Four, and the X-Men some of the biggest flagships Marvel has traditionally had.
2) Diversity Agenda - Replacement of major characters with other characters to increase diversity. To many this is a good thing or even a necessary change to update the universe with modern times. However this combined with the Inhumans Agenda has definetly added to instability. There is a list below of popular classic characters and 1 +2 have made it impossible to find current comics with them in it.
3) Seasonal Event format- Marvel has begun rebooting its universe multiple times a year and even equating it to the seasons of a TV program. The seasonal format is meant to hype titles with each "season" theme but some fans say it leads to fatigue and feeling that stories are gimmiks. This has also made continuity a total mess to explain.
Many Marvel fans tell me they are enjoying series that are outside of the events like Black Panther.
4) DC Rebirth - DC rebooted its universe from the New 52 and into DC Rebirth. During Rebirth the company changed a number of items that had given its fans consternation, DC managed to keep some of the aspects from New 52 that had been popular, while merging it with some classic DC elements. These moves have generally been met with positive acclaim at both Comic Conventions and in stores. While Rebirth is effecting the numbers in this analysis it should also be noted that Rebirth began in May and its new #1s are not effecting the November numbers. In fact none of the DC titles featured a number #1 in Novemeber. Marvel though benefited from the release of #1s and 6 of its 8 titles were #1. Comic Fans tend to buy more #1 of a title than they do of other numbers and it should disturb Marvel that its poor showing would have likely been even poorer if it had not released so many #1 titles. Another disturbing feature of Marvel sales is that Amazing Spider-Man: Renew Your Vows, Unworthy Thor, IVX and Civil War II are not ongoing titles. Also the current Amazing Spider-Man event the Clone Conspiracy was able to crack the top 20 when normally Spider-Man event sales are in the top 10. DC numbers from the past 2 months not analyzed were even more dominating than the November numbers.
Which of these did it?
We do not have any empirical evidence of which of these reasons are driving sales lower for Marvel but it seems likely that all of these in conjunction are weighing down sales. Generally, Marvel feels complicated, and unstable it is hard to invest in storyline and characters when they are going to disappear completely in a couple of months. All the items above have increased this instability.
The drive to increase diversity at Marvel has often been cited as a positive reason for previous years sales growth. Characters from different backgrounds have increased the types of stories Marvel can tell and appeal to a wider base of individuals. However, the company has seemingly hit an inflection point where it no longer has any of the traditional characters left. This has left many longtime fans of the company feeling disillusioned. It has also made it harder for new fans to walk in and buy the book they want. Numerous retailers have complained that children are coming to stores hoping to buy a book of their favorite hero and are not finding them on the shelf.
To illustrate how far Marvel has gone in changing characters consider that right now in Marvel:
Thor - Is not Thor
Iron Man - Is not Tony Stark
Hulk - Is not Bruce Banner
Spider-Man - Is Peter Parker in some titles but not all
Captain America - Is not Steve Rogers
Vision - Is not the Vision
Wolverine - Is not Logan
Fantastic Four - Are dead or something who knows anymore
Ghost Rider- Is not Johnny Blaze
X-Men - Are a confusing mess
Hawkeye - Is not Clint Barton
It should be noted that changes to characters has not been restricted to white characters:
Falcon - Is not Sam Wilson
War Machine - Is dead
Shurri - Has been dead, but recently resurrected
Brother Voodoo - Dead twice but also brought back
Any one of those changes alone is not a problem but consider when all of these are done at once. Its literal chaos. These characters and their stories are what Marvel sells, they are the company's bread and butter and they are not on shelves right now.
If a person came to the comic book store hoping to buy a comic about the heroes they see in film or from cartoons they would find themselves completely and utterly lost. While doing some of these changes can be good, doing it all once has made Marvel books unrecognizable. The whole sale change feels forced and agenda driven. Even fans that were for increasing diversity have begun to buy DC comics in the hopes of finding more stability.
I do not take this data to mean that Marvel should give up on stories with diverse characters.
Marvel has successfully done numerous books recently with diverse characters that include Black Panther's phenomenal series a Nation Under Our Feet, and also Moon Girl and Devil Dinosaur. These series have sold well and have also earned the company critical acclaim. One thing to note though is that these series are not replacements of original characters.
The company has also had great success with Kamala Khan and her mantle of Ms Marvel. While Kamala did replace Carol Danvers, Carol herself moved on to a different mantle of Captain Marvel. This has not been the case when other characters are replaced. In some cases the replacements have rendered the old characters dead, missing, old, evil or otherwise unrecognizable.
While the company should be commended for increasing the diversity of its characters in order to maintain sales I think they will need to find a way to achieve better balance. Getting rid of all the classic characters does not seem feasible over the long-term status quo. Marvel needs to find a sense of balance.
One thing Marvel really needs to think about is where should a new reader start. The continuity escapades of a character like Steve Rogers are a complete and total mess. I could explain 40 years of Captain America history better than I could explain his last 5. Moreover, Marvel's .1s that are supposedly been designed for new readers are not good at explaining anything. They are seen by Marvel fans as cash grabs, because they are.
There is a bright spot on the horizon for Marvel is that in January they will be launching a new event called Monsters Unleashed that really looks exciting and may help them revive themselves. It should worry Marvel some though that there are no plans for any of the major pillar characters to star in the series.
Data:
Here are the Top 20s going back through 2012:
You can find this data at: http://www.comichron.com/monthlycomicssales.html
2016
Comic-book Title
Issue
Price
Publisher
Est. sales
1
Batman
10
$2.99
DC
120,901
2
Batman
11
$2.99
DC
116,690
3
Civil War II
7
$4.99
Marvel
116,447
4
All Star Batman
4
$4.99
DC
99,064
5
Invincible Iron Man
1
$3.99
Marvel
97,713
6
Amazing Spider-Man Renew Your Vows
1
$4.99
Marvel
96,111
7
Batman Annual
1
$4.99
DC
91,033
8
Venom
1
$3.99
Marvel
90,138
9
Walking Dead
160
$2.99
Image
88,367
10
IVX
0
$4.99
Marvel
84,181
11
Avengers
1
$4.99
Marvel
81,885
12
Justice League
8
$2.99
DC
80,696
13
Justice League
9
$2.99
DC
77,905
14
Batman TMNT Adventures
1*
$3.99
IDW
75,974
15
Star Wars
25
$4.99
Marvel
75,234
16
Detective Comics
944
$2.99
DC
71,923
17
Flash
10
$2.99
DC
70,681
18
Unworthy Thor
1
$3.99
Marvel
70,424
19
Detective Comics
945
$2.99
DC
69,942
20
Flash
11
$2.99
DC
68,304
2015
Comic-book Title
Issue
Price
Publisher
Est. sales
1
Dark Knight III Master Race
1
$5.99
DC
440,234
2
Star Wars Vader Down
1
$4.99
Marvel
384,969
3
Deadpool
1
$4.99
Marvel
180,565
4
Secret Wars
7
$3.99
Marvel
177,019
5
Extraordinary X-Men
1
$4.99
Marvel
133,716
6
All New All Different Avengers
1
$4.99
Marvel
128,570
7
Star Wars
11
$3.99
Marvel
126,780
8
Uncanny X-Men
600
$5.99
Marvel
126,447
9
Star Wars
12
$3.99
Marvel
123,133
10
All New Wolverine
1
$4.99
Marvel
119,786
11
Darth Vader
13
$3.99
Marvel
113,448
12
Mighty Thor
1
$4.99
Marvel
112,053
13
Batman
46
$3.99
DC
106,989
14
Amazing Spider-Man
3
$3.99
Marvel
93,848
15
Deadpool
2
$3.99
Marvel
92,008
16
Darth Vader
12
$3.99
Marvel
90,077
17
Batman Europa
1
$4.99
DC
80,721
18
Ms. Marvel
1
$4.99
Marvel
79,222
19
Carnage
1
$3.99
Marvel
69,773
20
All New Hawkeye
1
$3.99
Marvel
68,933
2014
Comic-book Title
Issue
Price
Publisher
Est. sales
1
Amazing Spider-Man
9
$4.99
Marvel
135,280
2
All New Captain America
1
$3.99
Marvel
120,500
3
Batman
36
$3.99
DC
115,183
4
Amazing Spider-Man
10
$3.99
Marvel
100,899
5
Spider-Woman
1
$3.99
Marvel
93,723
6
Thor
2
$3.99
Marvel
89,131
7
Superior Iron Man
1
$3.99
Marvel
83,994
8
Avengers and X-Men Axis
4
$3.99
Marvel
79,068
9
Avengers and X-Men Axis
5
$3.99
Marvel
74,928
10
Justice League
36
$3.99
DC
74,796
11
Avengers and X-Men Axis
6
$3.99
Marvel
73,824
12
Harley Quinn
12
$2.99
DC
71,245
13
Spider-Verse
1
$4.99
Marvel
71,232
14
Walking Dead
134
$2.99
Image
68,093
15
Superman Unchained
9
$4.99
DC
65,478
16
Guardians of Galaxy
21
$3.99
Marvel
62,387
17
Captain America and Mighty Avengers
1
$3.99
Marvel
60,206
18
Wonder Woman
36
$2.99
DC
58,965
19
Wytches
2*
$2.99
Image
58,345
20
Detective Comics
36
$3.99
DC
58,171
2013
Comic-book Title
Issue
Price
Publisher
Est. sales
1
Batman
25
$4.99
DC
125,602
2
Harley Quinn
0
$2.99
DC
114,212
3
Amazing X-Men
1
$3.99
Marvel
112,337
4
Superman Unchained
4
$3.99
DC
110,611
5
Forever Evil
3
$3.99
DC
105,755
6
Infinity
6
$5.99
Marvel
100,292
7
All New X-Men
18
$3.99
Marvel
82,365
8
Superior Spider-Man
22
$3.99
Marvel
81,250
9
Batman Superman
5
$3.99
DC
77,198
10
Superior Spider-Man
21
$3.99
Marvel
74,940
11
All New X-Men
19
$3.99
Marvel
71,044
12
Justice League of America
9
$3.99
DC
71,008
13
Walking Dead
116
$2.99
Image
69,913
14
Walking Dead
117
$2.99
Image
68,818
15
Avengers
23
$3.99
Marvel
66,501
16
Uncanny X-Men
14
$3.99
Marvel
65,655
17
Detective Comics
25
$3.99
DC
64,392
18
Superior Spider-Man Annual
1
$4.99
Marvel
63,595
19
Uncanny Avengers
14
$3.99
Marvel
60,750
20
Superman Wonder Woman
2
$3.99
DC
60,185
2012
Comic-book Title
Issue
Price
Publisher
Est. sales
1
All New X-Men
1
$3.99
Marvel
181,693
2
Batman
14
$3.99
DC
159,729
3
Captain America
1
$3.99
Marvel
123,667<