By Vialii Usenko@VitaliiUFeb 22, 2015
by Vitalii Usenko, the Center of Military-Political Studies and Dmytro Usenko, student at Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto
Putin’s former aide Andrei Illarinov said in one of his interviews that Russia has been preparing for global war since 2003 – starting with war against Ukraine.
According to Illarionov, Russia has been preparing for a major war at least since 2003 and for aconfrontation with Ukraine, including the capture of Crimea, since 2004, when the ‘Orange Revolution’ started in Kiev.
Another contingency plan was drafted for 2010, in case Yulia Tymoshenko had won the presidential election instead of Moscow-backed Viktor Yanukovych. One more potential date for a war was chosen for 2015, according to Andrei Illarionov, when Ukraine would hold its next presidential election. However, Euromaidan happened sooner.
The information campaign justifying the Russian invasion in Ukraine and all sorts of scenarios (including science fiction, alternative history, futurology) of possible Russian aggression against Ukraine started in 2001 but intensified in the period 2006 – 2010. These scenarios were presented in a form of science fiction, futurology or alternative history scenarios. This confirms the suggestion by Andrei Illarionov that, in the event that a candidate other than Yanukovych had won the presidential election in 2010, Russia had prepared military campaign to “handle” this outcome.
The following sections highlight significant works that have contributed to the theoretical underpinnings for Russia’s current aggressive stance.
One of the versions of the military campaign against Ukraine, with the possible use of a nuclear strike against Ukrainian troops near Kyiv, was published on April 21, 2008 in the magazine Russkiy Journalunder the title ‘Operation Mechanical Orange.’
During Operation Mechanical Orange, the entire area of southeastern Ukraine would become an area of Russian intervention, including Crimea, the Black Sea area, Donbass, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk (Novorossiya – New Russia). This is so-called “blue and white” Russian-speaking territory, whose population has steadily voted against Russophobe parties. The authors allege that ethnic identity of the population in Southern and Eastern Ukraine is not yet finally defined, but virtually the entire population, without exception, has a positive attitude towards Russia. The major industries of Ukraine is located in these regions and are closely integrated with Russian industry, especially in the military-industrial complex – including all Ukrainian missiles and rocket science, plants for the production of turbines for nuclear power plants, ships and aircraft. Therefore Russia MUST take control over these territories, either in form of an independent state that is friendly to Russia or through annexation.
To achieve this goal in this scenario, a sort of blitzkrieg operation would be launched from Crimea and the southern regions of Ukraine, together with a sudden attack by Russian airborne troops in Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions. After the initial stage, involvement in the conflict by NATO is possible, first of all by Romania and Poland, either in form of “volunteers” or direct confrontation. In order to scare the older EU states, Russia would start to capture ships from Germany and France operating in the Black Sea and the Mediterranean. According to plan, NATO would split in disagreements and France and Germany, in a state of fear, would request that NATO stop supporting Ukraine.
As part of the operation, Russia plans to seize Kyiv as well as Novorossiya. As resistance near Kyiv is increased, the author proposes to carry out a demonstrative nuclear strike in the stratosphere in the area of Prypyat swampland (Prypyat is the city where the Chernobyl nuclear plant accident took place in 1986). This nuclear strike would supposedly not cause much harm in an area bounded by a 100 km radius from the epicenter but would offer enough deterrence to Poland and Ukraine. As an alternative, conventional air strikes were proposed.
As early as in 2001, Russian science fiction writer Roman Zlotnikovpublished the duology “Empire,” in which Russia creates a “Rurik Foundation” (Ruriks were the kings of Kyiv Rus) with the purpose to create an all-planet Russian Empire. Reformation starts with Russia. The plot resembles the plot of “Highlander” where immortal people attempt to influence historic events in the earth. The head of Rurik Foundation and its members are immortal and have a mission to restore monarchy in Russia and then to institute a Russian empire over the world.
Rurik Foundation has inconceivablly huge financial resources and uses them honestly and unselfishly for the good of Russia by strengthening its army, supporting teachers and doctors, and creating a vast university. The FSB diligently collects information about the Foundation and its president, but to his surprise, finds nothing wrong and starts to cooperate with the Foundation. No one, except the immortals of course, knows that Russia has chosen itself a starting point for the planned unification of humanity and the creation of a world empire, in order to appear before the space (meaning not just Earth orbiting missions) united and not divided into multiple states. To this end, Russia itself should first become a monarchy again.
It is natural for the Russian mentality that after the restoration of monarchy countries such as Ukraine, Poland, Finland and the Baltic states should be incorporated in the new Russian empire in the first wave (the borders of the Russian empire before WWI, that is why Alaska is not the first target). Innovative activities of the Rurik Foundation make the Russian Empire indisputable leader in high-tech providing its technological dominance over the World.
The Rurik Foundation’s financial resources are widely used to influence politicians and public opinion in Europe and United States.
China tries to challenge Empire and the West with nuclear war. Nuclear winter follows, and China defeats by Empire saving the World and becomes undisputed leader on Earth.
The years 2006-2012 saw many futuristic forecasts by Russian analysts of Russian involvement in a global military conflict in the 2010s, with very disastrous consequences for Russia. A series of books, “Baptism with Fire,” authored by the Russian nationalist of Ukrainian origin Maksym Kalashnikov (real name Vadim Kucherenko) describes scenarios of disintegration, the division of Russia into separate territories and the occupation of Russia by the West and China. A joint attack by NATO and China was described in a book in this series, “Star of Captivating Risk.” This scenario also mentions a so-called “Crimean Kosovo” plan. In 2012, Kalashnikov also described an apocalyptic scenario in his book “Collapse of Putin’s Russia: The darkness at the end of tunnel.” The author explores the collapse of Putin’s Russia as a result of disturbances in the financial world and the competition for resources. This serves as the justification for an urgent solution to prevent this negative scenario for Russia, one of which is a more active Russian position in the form of external expansion.
Several books about a war with Russia against Ukraine have been issued in March 2009. The most prominent of them are “Battlefield Ukraine – broken Trident” by Georgiy Savitskiy and “Ukraine – collapse of the project” by Sergey Buntovskiy and Maxim Kalashnikov.
In the scenario of the book “Battlefield Ukraine – broken Trident,” “Orange Nazis” unleash civil war in Ukraine in 2010 by provoking mass riots against the legitimate government of Ukraine. With the help of “peacekeepers” of NATO, under the cover of US aircraft and armored vehicles, Western Ukrainian punitive squads with a trident on their shoulder straps begin to destroy the Russian-speaking population, wiping out entire cities; Poltava perishes in a fire, and Dnipropetrovsk is razed to the ground. All of the Ukrainian Left Bank (east side of the Dniepr), Crimea and Novorossiya (‘New Russia’) rise against the invaders. Russia helps Resistance fighters with the latest weaponry, volunteers and military advisers.
According to this scenario, Ukrainian armed forces suffer a crushing defeat from resistance fighters, after which the Ukrainian army starts to shell all of the South and East of Ukraine with the mobile ballistic missile system ‘Korshun.’ Perhaps the author is referring to complexes ‘Korshun,’ developed by Design Office Pivdenne (KB Yuzhoye), the and machine-building plant Pidvenmash (Yuzhmash) in Dnipropetrovsk. It is unclear who can supply such systems as the author mentions in his scenario that Dnipropetrovsk is razed to the ground.
Back to reality. The new Ukraine Mobile Ballistic Missile System Korshun-2 [Kite-2] was presented to the public in Kyiv at the XI International Arms & Security Trade Fair in 2014.
The maximum range of the Korshun-2 is 280 km for the export version and 350 km for the Ukrainian army version. The minimum range is 50 km. The system will use a cruise missile developed on the basis of the Korshun to destroy ground targets.What is very important is that the Korshun-2 complies with the limits imposed by the Missile Technology Control Agreement (no missiles with a range greater than 300 km can be sold on export markets, and the missile payload may not exceed 500 kg).
Pivdenmash has also presented Grom-2 (Thunder-2), which is a new tactical missile system developed for the Ukrainian armed forces. It uses a cruise missile developed on the basis of the Korshun (Kite) to destroy ground targets. This system forms the basis for other operational missiles with a longer range. In fact, the complex is far better and more advanced than its Russian counterpart, the Iskander (NATO designationSS-26 Stone).
But Russians and the author of the book can relax as Pidvenmash suspended some of its operations in January 2015 because of a lack of defense orders from the Ukrainian government and space industry orders from US and EU. Therefore the future of Grom-2 (Thunder-2) and Korshun-2 [Kite-2] systems, which Russian military experts are afraid of as major counterbalance to Russian Ballistic Missile System Iskander (Nato designation SS-26 Stone), is unclear. As reported recently, the Ukrainian government has starts a program to help Pivdenmash by covering some of its debts for energy resources and paying salaries of the staff. The Ukrainian defense concern UkrOboronProm would like to unify its efforts with Pivdenne and Pivsenmash, both in military and civilian industrial sectors. US and EU support for integration of Pivdenne and Pivdenmash in the their space programs is also on the agenda again. Moreover, both Pivdenne and Pivdenmash have the facilities to do so. The international importance of saving Ukraine’s defense industry was elaborated by Carnegie Endowment of International peace.
Going back to the scenario in “Battlefield Ukraine – broken Trident.” US and NATO support Ukrainian shelling of South Eastern Ukraine by AWACS (Airborne Warning and Control System), supported byF-15C and F-16 fighter jets. Heroic Russian pilots in SU-27SM and SU-30 aircraft destroy AWACS and US fighter jets. The Russians then start the operation “Broken Trident” to destroy the Korshun systems, US tanks and armored vehicles, US ground air-defense systems, US combat robots and to defeat joint NATO-Ukrainian forces.
After this defeat, Ukrainian nationalist terrorists from the organization ‘Tryzub’ (‘Trident’) seize a hospital and maternity home in Pereyaslav-Khmelnitskiy. Ukrainian nationalists request that Russian troops stop resistance in Donetsk within 24 hours or the hospital and maternity home will be blown up. Shocked, the US and the international community start to cooperate with Russia in order to prevent such a horrendous terrorist act. Russian speznaz (special forces) successfully storm the hospital and maternity home, and the cruel animals from ‘Tryzub’ are killed.
Following these tragic events, the US and EU recognize their defeat and mistake in supporting “Ukrainian Nazis.” Next, the Pereyaslav Rada, chaired by the President of Russia, is convened. From US side, representative of US President Zbigniew Kshesinskiy (hint to Zbigniew Brzezinski, Polish-American political scientist, geostrategist, and statesman who served as a advisor to Lyndon B. Johnson from 1966–1968 and held the position of United States National Security Advisor to President Jimmy Carter from 1977 to 1981) attended the conference. The South and East of Ukraine (Novorossiya) has been incorporated in Russia, together with the entire defense industry. Peacekeeping troops under Russian command are placed on the remainder of the territory of Ukraine. EU member states, including Germany and France, sign a new agreement on a common European defense system in the continent.
The book has been so popular in Russia that it was reissued in March 2014.
The next book is “Ukraine – collapse of the project.” The topics and question discussed in the book concentrate on the non-recognition of Ukraine as separate nation: “If the Ukrainians are a separate nation, try then answer a few simple questions. For example, when were the “other” non-Russian peoples born? Where did they originate? When did they move to the lands of Kievan Rus? In what language did they speak?” The authors offer their own answers to those questions answers as, from their point of view, Ukrainian national leaders provide replies that, at best, “cause laughter.” They name such evident things as the following as ‘wrong Ukrainian mythology’: “Ukrainians – this is not Russian, but a special nation, with its own ancient history, culture and with its own language. This particular nation has always sought to create its own state but was constantly thwarted by external forces.” The authors try to suggest to the reader that the main danger of the Ukrainian national myth is the supposed use of Russophobia as the main Ukrainian national idea and creating an image of an enemy from Russia and Russian-speaking people in Ukraine. It has been specially pointed out that Ukraine’s leaders perceive as not only the neighboring country, but also most of the population of Ukraine, branded as an internal enemy. The authors “forecast” that this makes Ukraine even more split, with growing conflict between the West and the East, and if this process is not stopped Ukraine can expect the sad fate of Yugoslavia.
The topic of possible NATO bases in Ukraine and the split of Ukraine as independent state as a Russian preventive measure are discussed. The authors believe that Russia has right to self-defense and the protection of citizens of Ukraine who are willing to be part of the Russki Mir (“Russian World) and who are against “unbridled” and shameless Ukrainian nationalists. The horrors of possible carnage of the Russian-speaking population were provided in full colors.
To prepare Ukrainian population for Russki Mir, the special program of Russian TV broadcasting on Ukraine was highlighted. On top of that, special programs to prepare units of Russian activists in Eastern and Southern Ukraine as well as Russian volunteers are considered to be a decisive factor in seizing key points in these regions of Ukraine. The lightning Russian invasion would follow riots and unrest initiated by Russian activist and volunteers to prevent the destruction of Russian speaking population of Ukraine. The authors’ conclusion is that there is no other way out for Russia but to dismember Ukraine.
Possible scenarios that Russia might try to achieve have also been illustrated in the genre of “alternative history.” The book “Third Empire. Third Empire. What Russia Needs to Become” by Mikhail Yuriev, issued in 2006 elaborates that by 2053, during the Third World War, Russia will leave the US without its ruling elite, annex the whole of Europe, deprive of civil rights the populations of Britain and Ireland, and evict Estonians, Latvians and Lithuanians from their places of current residence. The new Russian empire establishes autocratic “people’s” power based on a caste system, with the leading role of caste “warriors.” The author claims that a Third World War is inevitable, after which the world will be divided between the five superpowers and Russia (one of them). The author provides the following justifications: “The current world is infinitely far from justice. The current world order is no longer acceptable to all. Iran wants to wipe Israel off the face of the earth, the United States promised to do the same with Iran. Russia, fearing Iran, does not love America any more. Muslims set suburbs of Paris on fire…this has already happened in the history of the world, in the XX century, on the eve of the First World War and Second World War, when all the nations and peoples were dissatisfied with their situation and each other. The Third World War is inevitable, as inevitable as a new world order at the end of this war! How the New World could be like after the Third World War, with Russia as the one of the most potent empires among 5 superpowers in a multipolar world, is shown in the “alternative history” book “The Third Empire.” It is worth mentioning that the author of the book, Mikhail Yuriev, was an aide to the government Russia with ministerial authority from 1992-1995 and Deputy Chairman of the Russian Parliament (Duma) from 1995 – 1999.
To make the situation worse, Ukrainian science fiction writers from Eastern Ukraine followed the model of their Russian colleagues. Among the very illustrative books of Fedor Berezin: “War 2010. Ukrainian Front” (issued in 2009) and “2011. The war against NATO” (issued in 2010). One can easily understand by reading these books what values were suggested to the people living in Eastern Ukraine during the 23 years of Ukrainian independence.
Fedor Berezin is a Ukrainian science fiction writer living in Donetsk, Chairman of the science fiction club ‘Strannik’ (‘Wanderer’), deputy commandant of Donetsk, ex-deputy Minister of Defense of self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, and member of Novorossiya (New Russia) “Parliament.” Fedor Berezin was appointed as Deputy Minister of Defense by Russian terrorist Igor Strelkov (aka Igor Girkin) on June 4, 2014. After the resignation of Igor Strelkov, Fedor Berezin remained in the position of Deputy Minister of Defense until November 2014. Since November 2014, he is deputy commandant of Donetsk.
A very poetic introduction to the book “War 2010. Ukrainian Front”: “Above all, Ukraine’s cloudless sky…NATO aircraft are hovering in this sky with impunity. The world “liberal” mass media is silent about the start of the [NATO] invasion [in Ukraine]. No orders to deploy air defense systems [from Ukrainian commanders]. But, there is a call for [Soviet] officer duty and for Soviet-made military equipment. And there is Russia, which is sure to come to the rescue…”
“World War III on the doorstep! World Fire will start in Ukraine. The armed conflict that broke out in Crimea threatens to spread to the whole of Europe. Russia is not going to stay away from the decisive events. The central front of the war for the future will be the Ukrainian front!”
According to the plot, Turkey, with support of the US and NATO, attacks Ukraine. The Ukrainian authorities do not mind this invasion in order to handle the problematic for Kyiv Donbas and Crimea regions. Some “patriotic” service members from the lower echelons of the army power structure decided not to be indifferent and intervened in the process to organize resistance.
“2011. The war against NATO” is a sequel to the book “War 2010. Ukrainian Front.” According to the plot, Ukraine was occupied by American troops after being “betrayed by its own “elite.”. NATO warplanes are hovering in the sky. The Ukrainian island of Zmeiniy (“Snake” Island) in the Black Sea was captured by Romanians; Turks landed in the Crimea. The “democratic” West diligently failed to notice the aggression, Kyiv was silent, and the Ukrainian army provided no resistance to [NATO] invaders.
An annotation to the book: the book: “All of Southeast Ukraine is bleeding to death in any unequal fight against NATO occupiers and ‘banderivsti’ [West Ukrainian nationalist] punitive squads. But there are still patriots, people loyal to the [Russian] military duty and the officer’s honor, all Southeast of Ukraine is raising a wing of fighter planes [in Eastern Ukraine] that refuses to obey the orders of the Kyiv Ukrainian Nazis and here you go – NATO “hawks” downed by rebel missile battalions are burning, urban guerrillas made the occupiers a real hell on earth …”
The books were so popular in Russia and Eastern Ukraine that they were re-issued in 2014 under the titles “Ukrainian Front: Red Stars over Maidan” and “Ukrainian Hell: This is our war.”
What should be pointed out is that Ukraine does not have enough and comparable products providing an alternative to the Russian science fiction, futorology, and alternative history narrative. That is why many people in Eastern Ukraine were “reprogrammed” by such novels in the form of the captivating plots of Russian fiction.
What shall be pointed out that Ukraine does not have enough and comparable products providing alternative to Russia science fiction, futurology, alternative history narrative. That is why many people in Eastern Ukraine were “reprogrammed” by such novels in form of capturing plots of Russian fiction.
Russian TV broadcasting industry has also not lagged behind the trend. The scenario of war by Russia against Ukraine was broadcasted openly on the Russian channel Ren-TV in the program “Military Secret” on September 18, 2009.
The program “Military Secret”on September 18, 2009: How war starts in Crimea
Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and, of course, NATO. This Russian science fiction scenario starts with the cutting off of Russian Black Sea fleet bases in Sevastopol by the Ukrainian army. Shortly before, additional Ukrainian troops, consisting of servicemen from Western Ukraine, had deployed in Sevastopol and Crimea. War starts from Sevastopol. The first assault is borne by 14,000 Russian soldiers stationed in Crimea that time. To help them Russia, sends additional 4,000 marines and 5,000 soldiers from Kuban (region near Ukraine’s southern border). In return, Ukraine brings 5,000 troops from the Kerch brigade, 10,000 troops from Dnipropetrovsk and Mykolayiv, an artillery brigade from Simferopol and 4,000 speznaz (special forces troops). Russia has an advantage in ground forces as Ukraine doesn’t have a fleet comparable to Russia with 40 combat ready ships; moreover, 30% of the Ukrainian fleet is out-of-order.
The only problem for the Russian is Ukrainian air defense. In the war against Georgia, Russia lost 10 planes, but in a situation with high-density air defense and 200 Ukrainian military fighter planes, Russia could lose much more planes. Adding to that, the US Black Sea navy group and NATO member states (especially Romania, Hungary and Poland) interfere in the conflict. Russia has assumed in 2009 that the US and NATO would be involved in direct military confrontations with Russia, unlike the war in Georgia, where they served for deterrence purpose only. Turkey joins the campaign to annex Crimea. After the confrontation, the West decides to declare Crimea an independent state (Crimean Kosovo) with puppet pro-Ukrainian leadership. The US immediately deploys its military bases in Crimea, and Russian Black Sea fleet is ousted from Crimea. Turkey agrees with this scenario.
Replying to the question of when such a scenario would be possible, the Russian expert replied “next year” (2010). To prevent such scenario, Russia acts proactively and a starts preventive war after the Ukrainian provocations. Russia wins and Ukraine is split in two parts – Western and Eastern Ukraine. In this program, Russian expert Victor Baranets evaluated the probability of a Russian war against Ukraine as 60% to 40% (pay attention it was 2009).
One more “masterpiece” of Russian propaganda with “prophecies”: “What will happen with Ukraine in 2015” was put in YouTube on May 2012.
The video clip shows the “alternative future” – June 22nd, 2015. Fierce fighting for the capital of Ukraine rages at full scale. “Freedom” “civilian” fighters from Kharkiv and Donbass named “Eastern liberation corps” after the series of victories over the Ukrainian army have come to Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine. On June 17, 2015, the Ukrainian army was ousted from Poltava, on June 19, 2015, from Cherkassy, on June 20, 2015, Eastern liberation corps sized Chernihiv, and on June 21st, 2015, the Eastern liberation corps entered Kyiv.
Nobody counts killed and wounded. In Kyiv, communications lines are damaged. Internet and mobile communications are not functioning. Bridges connecting the Left and Right banks of the Dniper river in Kyiv have been detonated. No potable water is available as retreating Ukrainian troops poisoned water in the Dnieper. There are problems of where to get food and medication in Kyiv. The civilian population prefers not to leave their apartments.
Marauding groups fighting between themselves when capturing supermarkets, shops with electronics, trade centers, jewelry shops. Ukrainian armed forces, Security Bureau of Ukraine (SBU) and Ministry of Interior (MOI) forces left by Ukrainian government, which fled to the West, are helpless. Mass desertion from troops leave warehouses with armaments without guard. All citizens who can arm themselves do so; the Ukrainian police refuse to maintain law and order in these circumstances. Servicemen from the Ukrainian army, SBU and MOI often change sides supporting fighting parties. The so-called interim government leaves all administrative buildings and moves to Lviv.
The President of Ukraine has disgracefully fled to West. The convicted Prime Minister of Ukraine (as it was 2012 – Yulia Timoshenko was meant) appears in Lviv and asks the UN about the urgent introduction of NATO troops in Ukraine. NATO troops are in high combat alert. The Russian Navy and troops in Crimea as well as on the Russian – Ukrainian border near Luhansk and Donetsk regions of Ukraine are on high alert too.
Close to the end is the speech of “freedom fighter” that he does not want that Washington and West decide future of Ukraine if it be in EU or in Eurasian Union. As Ukrainian authorities selected confrontation route such country as Ukraine disappears from the map of Europe. Clip ends with anti-EU propaganda how bad is EU, that nobody waits Ukraine in EU, how people from Poland, Romania, Bulgaria and Baltic States suffer from inequality within EU. Ukrainian place in such EU will be the lowest grade and Ukrainians will be new slaves for European masters.
Russians were wrong only in one point in their scenarios. NATO and EU proved not to be as strong as Russians thought in 2006 – 2012. Unlike Russian scenarios US, NATO and EU avoided both direct military confrontation with Russia and refused to support Ukraine by providing lethal weapons and military equipment.
Besides this, Russian think tanks have prepared justification for Russian expansion long before events in Ukraine. Among them Alexander Dugin, Russian political scientist known for his fascist views and calls to hasten the “end of times” with all-out war, author of Foundations of Geopolitics, The Fourth Political Theory (available in English in Amazon.com),Eurasian Mission: An Introduction to Neo-Eurasianism,Eurasia in the War of Networks, and group of authors ofRussian Doctrine.
The Russian Doctrine, as was discussed earlier by the experts of the Center of Military Political Studies (CMPS), is a collection of different scenarios, each of which is made not only to describe one variant of the future and to warn against possible threats, but at the same time to lay out strategies outlining the vision of the desired Russia, the Russia that should be. It is a voluminous document, which is why I will highlight some points relevant to the current situation.
In the introduction to the Russian Doctrine, we find quotes from different speeches by Vladimir Putin: “The Russian Federation is doomed in today’s world.” “The collapse of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century.”
The Russian Doctrine sees the “final and irreversible overcoming of the US and Western hegemony by ousting them from geopolitical arena” as Russia’s only chance for survival in the 21st century. “Only those countries which are hard, severe, persistent, and consistent will be successful in the first 20 years of the 21st century.”
“The Russian empire has been revived several times. Based on the values of the Eastern Roman Empire (Byzantium), even after the long-lived Tatar-Mongol yoke, the renewed mighty empire successor of Kyivan Russia of King Svyatoslav has arisen in Eastern Europe.” All succession is synthesized in Moscow as Third Rome.
The crisis of Western civilization inevitably brings to the agenda the urgent need for a new world leader. The international potential of Russian civilization is again on the agenda of history.
The Russian Doctrine defines three major principles of foreign policy:
Concentration: The return and re-unification of all territories of historical Russia, first of all Belarus, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan, followed by reunification with the rest of the Russian world
Fight ‘terror-globalism:’ Russia shall declare openly that Russia does not recognize the civilizing missions of the USA and the West;
‘Big Clench,’ ‘Alternative globalization’: Strategic cooperation with China, India, and Iran, resulting in a military union between Russia, China, India, North Korea, and Syria. Possible further extension to other Arab countries and countries from other regions, such as Africa and South America.
Alternative globalization, ousting the US and the West from geopolitical arena, shall start from ‘the near abroad,’ from countries like Ukraine. Minimal requests for the start could be Ukraine’s Tavria region (Crimea, Mikolaiv Oblast and Kherson Oblast) and Donbas (Donetsk Oblast). Please note that the Russian Doctrine was published in 2005, not in 2014.
Concerning Eastern Europe, “EU enlargement and NATO expansion to the East shall be declared a threat to Russian civilization,” with elaboration on appropriate measures for handling such scenarios.
It is noteworthy that Russian science fiction, alternative history and futurology scenarios as well as extremists concepts and vison of war strangely “migrated” from pure scenarios and concepts to official documents of Russian government and became a part of official Russian foreign policy.
The Kremlin’s approach might be called “non-linear war,” came from Russian science fiction and futurology. This term used in a short science fiction story ‘Without Sky’ (or ‘Cloudless Sky’ in some English translations), written by one of Putin’s closest political advisors, Vladislav Surkov, which was published under his pseudonym, Nathan Dubovitsky, just a few days before the annexation of Crimea. Surkov is credited with inventing the system of “managed democracy” that has dominated Russia in the 21st century, and his new portfolio focuses on foreign policy. This time, he sets his new story in a dystopian future, after the “fifth world war.”
Surkov writes: “It was the first non-linear war. In the primitive wars of the 19th and 20th centuries it was common for just two sides to fight. Two countries, two blocks of allies. Now four coalitions collided. Not two against two, or three against one. All against all.
And what coalitions! Not like the ones you had before – it was rare for whole countries to enter. A few provinces would join one side, a few others a different one. One town or generation or gender would join yet another. Then they could switch sides, sometimes mid-battle.”
Foreign Policy clarified the meaning of what Surkov has meant under the term non-linear war in thearticle “How Putin Is Reinventing Warfare”: “This is a world where the old geo-political paradigms no longer hold. As the Kremlin faces down the West, it is indeed gambling that old alliances like the EU and NATO mean less in the 21st century than the new commercial ties it has established with nominally “Western” companies, such as BP, Exxon, Mercedes, and BASF. Meanwhile, many Western countries welcome corrupt financial flows from the post-Soviet space; it is part of their economic models, and not one many want disturbed. So far, the Kremlin’s gamble seems to be paying off, with financial considerations helping to curb sanctions. Part of the rationale for fast-tracking Russia’s inclusion into the global economy was that interconnection would be a check on aggression.”
Russia was prepared to conduct a new form of warfare in Ukraine, where a non-linear warfare campaign has played a central role. The characteristics of the new form of warfare implemented in Crimea were outlined by General Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the Russian General Staff, in his article for Military Industrial Courier on February 27, 2013, nearly a year before the crisis in Ukraine.
Gerasimov outlined his view about the emergence of a new kind of war in the 21st century, one in which the distinctions between war and peace and between uniformed personnel and covert operatives are continuously diminishing. This combination, especially at a time when “wars are not declared but simply begin.” In these wars of a new type, Gerasimov says, are “mixed together” a broad range of “political, economic, information, humanitarian and other measures.”
The New Russian Military Doctrine, signed by Vladimir Putin on December 25, 2014, in the nature and characteristics of modern warfare conflict points out integrated use of military force, political, economic, informational and other non-military measures nature, implemented with the extensive use of the protest potential of the population and special operations forces. All these tools of hybrid warfare are currently being employed by Russia against Ukraine and would be used not only against Ukraine, but against the US, NATO and the West too.
It seems that the Russian behavior came as surprise to US, NATO and EU experts, but not to the Ukrainian expert community. Experts of the Center of Military Political Studies (CMPS), Kyiv, Ukrainewarned about these developments even before annexation of Crimea. It was clear that the first target of Putin’s Russia is not only Crimea, but also all of Eastern and Southern Ukraine, and that Russia’s race for world domination would start in Ukraine. Experts of CMPS worked on the public Internet project ‘Flot-2017’ (‘Navy-2017’) since 2008. The project was aimed at studying of the problems of regional security in the Black Sea region and the problems of development of national security and defense in Ukraine and actively covered the issues of regional security in the Black Sea region and, additionally as a local assignment, the problems of the Russian Black Sea Fleet on the territory of Ukraine. Based on the results of research, CMPS experts made series of publications in 2009. The publications aimed to draw attention of the government and public to the problem of foreign military bases deployment at the territory of Ukraine. CMPS highlighted foreign bases as factors increasing the likelihood of annexation of the Ukrainian territory by Russia.
The Gorshenin Institute has drawnattention to the article “Slavic brothers in arms. And in money,” written by a Russian journalist and military analyst Vladimir VORONOV, which was published in the Russian monthly magazine Sovershenno Sekretno (Top Secret) on 24 February 2014.
After carefully studying the article, experts of Gorshenin Institute arrived at following conclusions in March 2014:
The myth that Ukraine’s defense industry depends on Russia has been demolished. On the contrary, the Russian military industrial complex in a strategic context is highly dependent on Ukraine.
The Russian leader has been seriously preparing for a Third World War. This follows from the amounts and the nature of orders placed with military industrial companies.
In the light of the hypothetical threat of Ukraine’s association with the European Union and rapprochement with NATO, the goals of the Russian defense enterprises could be in jeopardy, and thus access to the Ukrainian defense enterprises needs to be preserved at any cost.
The geography of the Ukrainian defense enterprises, with which Russia links its strategic doctrine, strikingly coincided with the geography of the points of instability in Ukraine. Experts noted that one of the points with a high concentration of such objects is the city of Kyiv.
Russia could be interested in Ukraine as a huge mobilization reserve of manpower.
At that time, a majority of the Western expert community considered their analysis as a fantasy. If the books, reports and YouTube news clips have been circulating since 2003, why has no one taken notice of them, why has no one in Ukraine or the Western World acted on them? It is high time to make serious reconsideration of Russia’s intentions and to have a unified front to counteract Russian global threat.
Written by: Dr. Vitalii Usenko, MD, MBA, expert of the Center of Military-Political Studies in the sphere of psychology of communications, and by Dmytro Usenko, student at Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto
Edited by: Andrew Kinder
Filed under: Russia Tagged: #RussiaFail, #RussiaLies