For as long as fantasy football has been around there has been a long-standing theory among fantasy football players that most NFL wide receivers do not really bust out until their third year in the league. Essentially the idea is that a receiver will show growth in each of their first two seasons in the league but then will make the big jump in their third season as a pro.
So as these believers draft for the upcoming fantasy season they will target pass catchers that are about to enter the third season of their professional football careers. This is done with the hopes of finding a break out wide receiver that likely will end up being a steal at the spot in which they were drafted.
Looking at the past there have been some examples of this theory paying huge dividends for fantasy football players. For example Dez Bryant entered the 2012 season as a big name in the NFL but not yet a big-time fantasy producer. He was being selected as the 18th wide receiver in fantasy drafts that year according to Mock Draft Central. But in what was his third year in the league, he finished as the seventh-best fantasy wide receiver in football. In his third season he finally broke out and lived up to the lofty expectations that had followed him since the Cowboys selected him with 24th pick in the 2010 NFL Draft.
Here is how his first three seasons in the NFL played out:
2010
561 Yards
6 Touchdowns
2011
928 Yards
9 Touchdowns
2012
1,382 Yards
12 Touchdowns
Finding the value of drafting Dez Bryant was probably the difference between having a good fantasy season and a great one that year. So while the third-year wide receiver theory is real, it is tougher than just targeting any third-year wide out. Of the 32 wide receivers that were active at the start of the 2015 season whose rookie year was 2013, only 10 of the pass catchers showed an improvement in receptions from the year before.
Third Year WRs that Showed Increase in Receptions in 2015
Wide Receivers
Team
2013 Rec
2014 Rec
2015 Rec
Tavon Austin
LAR
40
31
52
Aaron Dobson
NE
37
3
13
Marquise Goodwin
BUF
17
1
2
DeAndre Hopkins
HOU
52
76
111
Dontrelle Inman
SD
0
12
35
Quinton Patton
SF
3
3
30
Myles White
NYG
9
0
7
Nick Williams
ATL
3
0
17
Terrance Williams
DAL
44
37
52
Marquess Wilson
CHI
2
17
28
And only three of those 10 made a big enough fantasy impact to finish in the top 43 of fantasy scoring wide receivers in 2015: DeAndre Hopkins, Tavon Austin and Terrance Williams. But if you applied this theory and drafted one of these guys you were rewarded with a great return on your investment. For example, according to fftoday.com the Texans’ Hopkins was the 13th wide receiver being taken in last season’s fantasy drafts and finished 2015 as the sixth-best scoring wide out.
So as you prepare for your 2016 fantasy football draft, it is not just about selecting third-year wide receivers but instead finding the right upcoming pass catcher to target. Of the 49 active wide receivers whose rookie year was 2014, four of them (Odell Beckham, Allen Robinson, Mike Evans and Sammy Watkins) own an ADP inside the top eight at the position according to Scout.com so they have already made their mark on the league. But there are a few other wide receivers to target in your 2016 fantasy drafts that could find themselves benefiting from the third season theory and in return providing you with top 10 production at the fraction of the cost.
Kelvin Benjamin, Carolina Panthers
Benjamin, who according to Scout.com’s current ADP is being the 20th wide receiver being selected in fantasy drafts, is not your typical third-year candidate as he was forced to miss the 2015 season after a gruesome knee injury he suffered during training camp. Nonetheless the pass catcher should be 100% healthy for the start of the 2016 season and will give quarterback Cam Newton a big target especially in the red zone. Benjamin finished with 1,000-plus yards and grabbed nine touchdown in his rookie campaign on his way to being the 17th ranked fantasy wide receiver. With Ted Ginn finishing as the Panthers’ top wide receiver in Benjamin’s absence, look for wide receiver to be a big part of the passing attack in 2016 and have no problem building on his 73 receptions in 2014.
Brandin Cooks, New Orleans Saints
The third-year pass catcher finished the 2015 season as the 12th best scoring fantasy wide receiver and finished just two fantasy points behind Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald for the 10th spot. Cooks should have no problem jumping into the top-10 in terms of fantasy scoring at the position in 2016, despite owning an ADP that lands him as the 13th wide receiver being selected in current fantasy football drafts. If he can duplicate his second half performance from 2015, Cooks will make his fantasy owners a true believer of the third-year wide out theory. After scoring double-digit fantasy points just once in his first seven games last season, he scored at least 10 fantasy points in six of his last nine. In those nine games, the Saints’ wide out averaged 12.8 fantasy points. If he maintained that average over the course of the 2015 season, he would’ve finished the season as the seventh-ranked fantasy wide receiver.
Jarvis Landry, Miami Dolphins
Landry made a huge jump from his rookie season to his second year in the league. In his first year in the league, Landry compiled 84 receptions for 758 yards and followed that up with a 110/1,157 sophomore season showing. He finished 2015 as the 15th ranked fantasy football wide receiver despite catching just four touchdowns. While it is tough to imagine he can make another big jump in receptions or yards, there is a growth opportunity in the touchdown department. If he is able to score just two more touchdowns in 2016, he likely will find himself in the top-10 in 2016.
Jordan Matthews, Philadelphia Eagles
The curious case of Jordan Matthews continues. The wide receiver disappointed many fantasy owners in his second season in the league as he was the 11th wide receiver being taken off the board in fantasy drafts but finished the 2015 season as just the 19th ranked pass catcher. But despite the disappointment, he did finish the season with more catches and yards than his rookie year. He ended up with 18 more receptions and 125 yards in 2015 than he did in 2014. If he is able to duplicate that growth again in 2016, look for Matthews to be a top 15 wide receiver this season, despite currently being drafted as the 21st wide receiver in fantasy drafts.
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