FRANMIL REYES
Organization: San Diego Padres || 2016 club: Lake Elsinore Storm (A-Adv.)
Position: OF || Age: 21 || DOB: July 7, 1995 || Birthplace: Palenque, Dom. Rep.
Acquired: November 1, 2011 (undrafted free agent) || 2016 prospect rank: N/A
2016 stats: 130 games, 493 AB, .278/.340/.452/.792, 32 2B, 16 HR, 47 BB, 108 K, 2 SB
Reyes’ 2016
Franmil Reyes picked the best time to have the best year of his career in 2016, and even in the California League’s generally hitter-friendly ballparks, the tall, hulking outfielder put up numbers impressive for his age at High-A. In doing so, he may have just set himself up to rise into the fringes of the San Diego Padres’ organizational plans entering 2017.
A 21-year-old (he won’t be 22 until next July), Reyes spent 2016, his fifth year in pro ball, sitting in the middle of the lineup for the Lake Elsinore Storm, and he showed off power (32 doubles and 16 home runs, for a .452 slugging percentage) and the faintest budding of understanding of an advanced league’s strike zone (47 walks against 108 strikeouts with a .340 on-base percentage) in 130 games.
He only got better as the summer went on, and the Padres deserve credit for sticking with their development process and allowing him to work things out at the plate. A very, very difficult first half—Reyes was slashing a meager .198/.250/.284 on May 28—turned into a torrid stretch post-All-Star break, including Reyes’ unbelievable month of August, where he slashed .358/.414/.613/1.027 with nine doubles and six home runs in 106 at-bats.
The hot streak itself might have started a few days before August; in a four-game series at Inland Empire to end July, Reyes knocked seven hits, including two doubles, a triple, and a home run, and put up seven RBI, two walks, and scored three runs. From there, he was off to the races and, along with the front office of the Bakersfield Blaze, was probably one of the people least looking forward to the end of the season come early September.
Reyes leads off first base during a 2016 game on the road in Bakersfield. Image by Bobby DeMuro.
Ironically, Reyes may have gotten recognized prematurely by the Cal League; he won the league’s Player of the Month award for June, where he slashed .307/.360/.584/.945 with eleven doubles, five home runs, eight walks, and just ten strikeouts in 101 at-bats. That’s all well and good, and there’s no question that was well-deserved, but considering how much better his August turned out to be… well, perhaps Reyes deserves another Player of the Month honor.
Nevertheless, as you’d expect from such a young player, wire-to-wire consistency eluded him across the season, and his overall strong numbers could have been better had it not been for such an ice-cold April and May.
I saw the outfielder both times the Storm came through Bakersfield, and while he was nearly invisible for much of their first road trip to Sam Lynn Ballpark in late April, he turned things on by mid-August when Lake Elsinore returned; it’s from this series (where Reyes was 8-for-15 with four doubles) that the above video is taken.
Scouting Reyes
Reyes is big, and strong, and very well-built at 6’5″ and 240 lbs.—so well-built, in fact, that he might be maxed out physically already at 21 years old with no real room to grow further. That said, he has enough strength to possibly produce plus power as he develops (and as his 16-homer summer in 2016 would hint towards), along with swing mechanics that stay through the ball to produce some loft and backspin.
Beyond the raw power, Reyes’ hit tool isn’t as well developed and may never flash plus-level ability, though he is extremely raw to this point and grew by leaps and bounds in 2016 alone. He’s done well to keep his strikeout rate relatively low even as he rose to High-A this year, which might be a good sign for his future contact skills and overall hit tool, but he’s not likely the kind of player who will ever hit for average, as he doesn’t consistently barrel up pitches well enough to do that.
He’s a good overall athlete, and even at his size he runs well and can survive in the outfield corners on defense. However, he’s not a burner on the base paths, nor does he have a plus arm that would make him an unquestionable fit in, say, right field.
In a way similar to Reyes’ teammate Josh Naylor, this is where things get interesting in the future: If only one tool exhibits the possibility of becoming above-average at the big league level, that tool better be really above-average to make up for the at- or below-average skills exhibited everywhere else.
In Reyes’ case, that means he better hit for a ton of power if he’s to survive in the outfield, on the bases, and with his hit tool. Now, considering I watched him crush the ball during his breakout summer, I’m likely higher on the chances of this happening than are most evaluators, but even I can acknowledge it’s a tall task to expect him to hit 30+ home runs every year to make up for the rest of his firmly average skill set.
All this said, at least in regards to 2016, Reyes deserves a bit of credit for being a more complete hitter with a maturing approach to all fields, as opposed to the dead-pull you might expect from a 20- and 21-year-old in High-A, per his MLBFarm.com spray chart:
After watching Reyes pull the ball to left and left-center field across two series over five months in 2016, it was a nice surprise to see a good spray and a decent power surge to right-center and right field. Obviously, his 2016 spray chart is but one season in the greater context of facing better pitchers every year in his career, and should be taken with something of a grain of salt considering he’ll have to start all over again in Double-A next summer, but it’s a pleasant graphic that suggests two things: (a) his approach as a whole is maturing and should adjust decently to Double-A pitching, and (b) his home run power to right-center is an encouraging development in regards to whether he can achieve his ultimate power ceiling.
For what it’s worth, though I never had the chance to interview him myself, Reyes seemed remarkably at ease among teammates and had a notably cheery, good-natured, and polite attitude on the field across both series I observed him with Lake Elsinore.
Going Forward
At the very least, after spending two straight summers at Low-A Fort Wayne in 2014 and 2015, Reyes ought to rest easy this offseason in knowing he should be one-and-done with Lake Elsinore and on to Double-A for 2017. There, he’ll be making a big jump, though it’s important to remember that with his July 7 birthdate, playing in the Texas League will actually be his age-21 season, despite being his sixth in pro ball. So if (or when) he scuffles next summer, just as he did to begin his time in Lake Elsinore, it’d behoove the Padres to again be patient with their hulking outfielder and let him adjust through the inevitable growing pains that are sure to come, regardless of degree.
Beyond that, if you’re following him from out of town and looking for the broadest, easiest level at which to analyze Franmil Reyes in Double-A, track three fairly obvious things: doubles, home runs, and slugging percentage. If he’s showing out in those statistical categories, he’s developing the power tool he’ll need to reach the big leagues and stick there one day.
At best, it’s his only path to the big leagues; at the very least, it’s his likeliest path. In either case, it’s his most exciting tool and represents one of the better power strokes I saw from any Padres farmhand all summer in 2016. Thus, its continued growth—or lack thereof—will dictate exactly how far Franmil Reyes can go in professional baseball.
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