The Dodgers have, and spend, the most money on baseball – even on players no longer employed by the team. How will new GM Andrew Friedman use that money to improve his team at the deadline?
At first glance, the National League has three teams at the forefront of the divisional races. Washington, St. Louis and Los Angeles are not only in first place right now, but according to Fangraphs.com’s playoff odds, the triumvirate also are the most likely representatives for the World Series. Here is a chart to reflect that based on the numbers provided by Fangraphs:
For the purposes of this article, the focus will be on the Los Angeles Dodgers and how they will approach the trade deadline. It is obvious that they have two of the best pitchers in baseball in Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw. Their lineup is flawed but has been able to produce the 12th most runs in baseball, but the pitching has kept the Dodgers fifth in baseball in both run differential and run differential per game.
Part of the reason for the Dodgers being the odds-on favorite for the World Series in the National League is the payroll.
No professional team in North American sports has spent more than the Los Angeles Dodgers in payroll. Without the existence of a salary cap, Los Angeles – with its huge television contract and ability to generate income – has spent at will to win a championship.
In all professional sports, they even make the top five overall in salary per player according to this chart courtesy of International Business Times:
Soccer in Europe also works without a salary cap, which opens the door to buy talent. More than that, the Dodgers have spent almost as much “dead money” this year in salaries as the other Major League Baseball teams do in salary.
Arizona, Tampa Bay, Miami and Houston all pay between $71 – $77 million in total salaries for their present rosters. Los Angeles has spent over $60 million in money to players who are no longer on the Dodgers or presently playing.
This year, the total payroll for the Dodgers is over $275 million for the franchise. With that in mind, here is how the Dodgers have allocated that money by position, with the dead money included:
But for all of this spending, the Dodgers will need to not only take on more salary in trades, but they need pitching even though they have allocated over 35 percent of their salary on the position.
One of the reasons that the Dodgers did not win their playoff series last season against the Cardinals was their weak underbelly was exposed, the bullpen. In spite of having one of the best closers in baseball, Kenley Jansen, the Dodgers are presently 23rd in save percentage, which includes all the opportunities to hold a lead from the seventh inning on.
This year, they are 24-for-37 (64.86 percent) in save opportunities. Last year in the divisional series against St. Louis, Los Angeles blew two leads in the seventh inning and the bullpen as a unit had the following stat line:
Los Angeles Dodgers Bullpen NLDS 2014: 7.2 IP, 7:3 K:BB, 7.01 ERA, 1.68 WHIP
While new president Andrew Friedman did not believe in paying high salary to relief pitchers during his time in Tampa Bay, if the Dodgers are going to ride the arms of Greinke and Kershaw into the post-season, they need to improve the arms leading up to Jansen. First, here is a tweet which reflects how Friedman likes to amass a bullpen:
Hallelujah Andrew Friedman: http://t.co/d6W3uNW54y pic.twitter.com/k6scimm40j
— Molly Knight (@molly_knight) April 14, 2015
As noted as his ability to maximize the arms in the Rays bullpen during his tenure in Tampa Bay, Friedman needs to address the Dodger soon. This tweet by Ken Rosenthal exemplifies why:
Take away Kenley Jansen, and #Dodgers’ bullpen ERA since May 15 is 4.90. Team actively looking for starters and surely relievers too.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 22, 2015
The Dodgers leaving in Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw deep into their starts in the regular season because they do not trust the options in the bullpen could have a devastating effect on Los Angeles once again in the post-season. Both of Clayton Kershaw’s losses to the Cardinals came in the seventh inning in the National League Divisional Series last year. Even if the Dodgers win one of those games, they are in the elimination game at home with Greinke pitching last year.
Before going into what the Dodgers may do at the trade deadline, two moves by Friedman have worked out to this point which will allow for flexibility to take on more payroll.
The much maligned trade of Matt Kemp for catcher Yasmani Grandal does not look bad right now. Grandal is the 17th-rated player on Spotrac.com’s value catcher with production in regards to salary. Rookie Joc Pederson is the 14th-rated player and although the two Dodgers are the only ones in the top 20, with the highest salary in baseball it is not a surprise.
Grandal has been one of the team’s best additions this season.
With the knowledge of the dead money the Dodgers already have invested, it stands to reason that Los Angeles will eat some money to move present veterans as the trade deadline approaches. This would include Carl Crawford or Andre Ethier, who are on the trading block but only one will be moved.
With the baseline of the Dodgers salary outlined above and the biggest area of need the bullpen, the Dodgers also need to get at least one more starting pitcher, if not two, before the trade deadline passes. These options will be explored next.
Los Angeles Dodgers Potential Targets
Since the postseason centers around pitching, it stands to reason that the Dodgers are going to target one or two veteran starting pitchers for the remainder of the season. While it may pay off to wait in this market as more teams place pitchers on the trading block, there are some pitchers of intrigue:
Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake, Cincinnati
Cole Hamels, Philadelphia
Jeff Samardzija, Chicago White Sox
David Price, Detroit
Mat Latos, Miami
Kyle Lohse and Matt Garza, Milwaukee
Yovani Gallardo, Texas Rangers
After the off-season deal with the Padres, it is very unlikely that the Dodgers could pry one of their arms away in a trade so they are not included in this list. But the Dodgers do have the depth in prospects and Major League talent to make deals to acquire arms above.
Add in the Dodgers’ secret wish to add Aroldis Chapman to the bullpen to help navigate the late innings and a combination of Reds pitchers could be an option. One month ago it was reasonable to think the Dodgers would ante up the package to get a Cueto and Chapman prize, but the recent outings by Cueto make that questionable.
It could be that the Dodgers would rather make a better package to get Cole Hamels as insurance if Zack Greinke leaves after this season, as he has to invoke his opt-out clause for free agency to cash in from his excellent season to this point.
The wild card in all of this would be if David Price did hit the market, and his ties to Andrew Friedman during their time together in Tampa Bay. Price would be the most expensive rental, but he has the ability to make a huge difference in the playoffs and would give the Dodgers the best chance to win this year. This is not a long-term approach to a championship, but the Dodgers payroll and level of urgency to win is now.
Price’s ability and his relationship with Friedman could swing the entire deadline – and the power structure of the National League.
Which ace the Dodgers target will not only tilt who else gets moved, but for what price – no pun intended in regards to the Tigers. But Los Angeles has Major League talent like Alex Guerrero and Carl Crawford to trade away. Maybe even Justin Turner if necessary.
As for the minors, Friedman has said that Julio Urias and Corey Seager are untouchable, but the Dodgers still have pieces to move. Darnell Sweeney, Zach Lee, Joe Wieland, and Hector Olivera are a few that headline potential trade chips. With that in mind, could the Dodgers be auditioning their trade chips in New York versus the Mets?
Unannounced, but after Kershaw and Greinke, #Mets may face Zach Lee and Joe Wieland in #Dodgers series barring acquisition beforehand.
— Adam Rubin (@AdamRubinESPN) July 22, 2015
There are many moving parts to the Dodgers, which makes them the most interesting team to watch at the trade deadline. Andrew Friedman has never had the backing to buy at the deadline so this is uncharted territory for him.
Much of what the Dodgers will do depends on the Tigers. While the Cueto and Chapman pairing is enticing, my odds would be on the Dodgers paying for a David Price and Yoakim Soria duo from Detroit. Los Angeles has the chips to make this worthwhile for Detroit with Price being a free agent this winter.
The other likely scenario is getting Cole Hamels and one of the Phillies arms from their surprisingly good bullpen, but not Jonathan Papelbon. There are far too many volatile personalities on the Dodgers without adding an outspoken player like Papelbon. Add in the contract clause, along with the money he is owed, to the beliefs that Friedman has for the bullpen and the odds are slim for him being a Dodger.
Andrew Friedman has proven very adept at making moves at the deadline, but it has been on the other side of the table as a seller and not a buyer. His background at the other side of the table should help in the negotiations and targets for the Dodgers.
Stay tuned to the moves, but the highest paid team in sports in our hemisphere is going shopping in the next seven days, and odds are it is not for bargains. Do not be surprised if the Dodgers add a second arm like Mike Leake, whose road ERA is 2.57 and he has pitched great in June and July.
Time will tell if the Dodgers will win a championship this year, but they need to get a starter to take Game Three in the playoffs, at least two arms in the bullpen and potentially another starter to slot in for game four when needed. In spite of allocation over one-third of their salary to pitching, you can never have enough in October. Your move Andrew.
Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com, Spotrac.com, SportingCharts.com