CLEVELAND – It’s almost not fair. The Indians haven’t won a World Series in 68 years, and even in the competition of the long sufferers, they finish a distant second place. They are 40 years behind.
You don’t have to be from Chicago to know it’d been 71 years since the Cubs even made a World Series, and 108 years since they won one.
“That’s definitely a long drought … it could be even longer after this,” the Indians’ Rajai Davis said with a smile.
The Cubs may be everyone else’s favorite, as well as the strong betting choice (they’re nearly 2-to-1 favorites), but there’s no doubt the Indians mean business. They aren’t here just to admire the Cubs’ beloved team and endearing story.
And no, the Indians didn’t steamroll the American League’s two best-hitting teams by accident. They’ll need a few things to go right against this stacked Cubs team (which is expected to get more stacked with the arrival of Kyle Schwarber, who’s flying in from Phoenix late Monday, and expected to be activated to DH).
A half-dozen rival executives were surveyed about which team will break their drought, and it was an even split, three to three; only one was sure the Cubs are going to win.
“I don’t see it,” that exec said of an Indians World Series win. “I’d be really surprised if the Cubs didn’t win this series.” But that exec did add a caveat, saying, “There was the ’88 Dodgers.”
The Cubs are rightfully favored, but the Indians are better than most think, and it says here they have a legit shot. Here are some keys:
1) Rattling Lester
The Indians need to figure a way to get to Cubs Game 1 starter Jon Lester, who was practically unhittable in the second half and even more unhittable in the NLCS by the Dodgers, who tried to throw him off by faking some running. (Well, actually, according to a Dodgers person, the intention was to do more than fake the run, and to actually do it. But the sedentary Dodgers just couldn’t pull it off.)
Very few teams have been able to rattle Lester, who doesn’t throw to first on pickoffs and doesn’t like to throw to any base under any condition. And despite these alleged deficiencies, hardly any have been able to beat him with some bunting and some running (basically none since the Wild Card Game of 2014, when another A.L. team, the Royals, did it).
(Photo By John Cordes/Icon Sportswire)
But if anyone can do it, it may just be the Indians, who can bunt, and they can run the bases with anyone these days.
“I think this is a great team to match up with all their pitchers. We take advantage of opportunities,” Davis said. “We’re the type of team that tries to get 90 feet closer. We understand it’s hard to score in these games, so we’ll try to get closer to home.”
The Indians can bunt better than most. Davis is a natural bunter, and Francisco Lindor, Jason Kipnis and Jose Ramirez are among the others who are proficient as well.
Lester has negated attempts to beat him with the stolen base by being ultra quick to home (1.5 to 1.1 seconds) and having David Ross catch him, who’s ultra quick to second, especially for a 40-year-old. There’s one other catch, of course.
“The key is to get on base,” Davis said. “They’re not giving that one away.”
And Ross issues this warning. “They can run themselves out of games.”
2) Bullpen
The Cubs can’t let the Indians get the lead. Cleveland’s bullpen is reminiscent of the Royals’ array of relievers the last two World Series, only with Andrew Miller, the floating superstar who can enter in any inning, and dominate in all. The Indians even won an ALCS game when starter Trevor Bauer last only 21 pitches due to profuse bleeding caused by a drone accident. The deadline pickup of Miller by Indians honchos Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff is one of the best ever, and he is the most valuable weapon in this postseason so far.
“I don’t relish seeing their bullpen with a lead,” one Cubs person said. Truer words were never said.
3) Platooning
The Indians have the unseen, subtle lefty-righty advantage against just about everyone. Antonetti and Chernoff have set up the team to give them lefty-righty chances all over the place, thanks to lots of switch-hitters and platoon players. They led the majors in platoon advantages at bat, and were in the top-four when pitching.
It also doesn’t hurt to have Francona doing the matching, either.
“Tito does an amazing job with that,” notes the Indians’ Lonnie Chisenhall.
4) Comebacking
The Indians pitching is in better shape than it was for the A.L. playoffs, though there are still questions. Bauer expressed confidence he’d shake off his drone-inflicted injury and go in Game 2, and he looked decent off the mound later – though that’s not set in stone and Francona could still turn to Josh Tomlin for Game 2.
Danny Salazar has been activated off a simulated game in which he hit 97 mph, and is said to be an option for Game 4, though he could be available for long relief earlier, perhaps Game 2.
“He’s fantastic when he’s on,” one rival exec says.
5) Fielding
Both teams are strong on defense. But there’s no one better than the Cubs, who converted more balls hit into play into outs than anyone.
“That’s how it was all year long,” Hendricks said. “They helped me tremendously.”
However, the Indians are far from shabby, with the double play combo of Lindor and Kipnis, plus third baseman Ramirez and catcher Roberto Perez all exceptionally strong. In short, the Indians will not beat themselves. For the Cubs to break the longest drought in sports history, they are going to have to win it; there will be no giveaways.
(Photo by Gerry Angus/Icon Sportswire)
Notes on a scorecard around the World Series …
– Barring something weird, the Cubs plan to activate Schwarber to be their DH. He’s a special talent, but it’s an interesting decision since they wouldn’t be able to replace him on the roster once he’s on. Schwarber was flying in from Phoenix late Monday after hitting a couple rockets in an Arizona Fall League Game.
– Bauer threw 15 pitches off a mound Monday, and Indians people said he looked good, giving him a chance to start Game 2, despite his finger issue. If not, Josh Tomlin is ready to go.
– The Cubs needed to move Kyle Hendricks to Game 3 to give him regular rest, so he’ll follow Jake Arrieta this round. But Hendricks also happened to be the best pitcher in the majors at home this year, even before his pennant-clinching gem vs. the Dodgers, which impressed everyone.
“One of my best games of the year,” Hendricks said.
– The Cubs will extend the $17.2 million qualifying offer to Dexter Fowler, who’s had a terrific season for them.
“No brainer,” said a person familiar with their thinking.
He’ll probably beat that elsewhere. But don’t forget, he loves the Cubs!
– It wasn’t lost on Fowler that he will be the first African-American Cub to get into a World Series Game. Their last World Series game came two years before Jackie Robinson broke the color barrier.
– Baseball people often suggest the playoffs are a crapshoot, but one Dodgers person conceded after the Cubs beat them in the NLCS, “The better team won.”
– That the Cubs stuck with Javier Baez despite the reputation and strikeouts “shows the excellence of the organization,” one NL exec says. Many teams would have “kicked him to the curb” when they saw the early swings and misses, knowing that he was the pick of the previous regime. But they were smart enough to know they had something special.
(AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)
– Longtime Cubs scout Billy Blitzer waited 34 years – nearly half the jinx time – for a World Series. “Great feeling today,” he texted the night they won the pennant.
– Cubs president Theo Epstein narrowed his managerial choices in 2003 to Francona and Joe Maddon, and went with Francona. He couldn’t have done any better than Francona. But he’s got Maddon now, and that’s not too shabby, either. They are two of the best three managers in the game.
– For the bullpen, the Yankees will target Aroldis Chapman first, and Kenley Jansen next. But this time, they plan to have only a two-headed back-end bullpen, with Dellin Betances the holdover, who’d serve as set-up man.
– The Indians’ offer for Miller was much better than anyone else’s. When the Giants wouldn’t include Joe Panik, that was it for them. The Nats offered some young pitchers but weren’t close. So had the Indians not come up with the goods, Miller probably would have remained a Yankee.
– Among prospects the Yankees acquired, lefty starter Justus Sheffield (Miller trade) tore it up this year, and shortstop Gleyber Torres (Chapman trade) is hitting up a storm in the Arizona Fall League.
“(GM Brian) Cashman did a nice job,” one rival said.
– Some see Luis Severino as a reliever. “He’s a two-pitch guy,” says one exec.
– Who didn’t think the Mets would “slow play” Yoenis Cespedes? That’s what they do with all big free agents, and it worked last year. They don’t like to step out on salary and take a chance of overpaying. That’s not their thing.
– Execs are predicting a lot of trade talk this winter since the free-agent starting pitching market is so sparse.
– To get Chris Sale, rival execs are still saying they believe it would have to be a “Herschel Walker type trade,” with many good players going back. One team that hasn’t been speculated much on but would make sense is the Astros. One rival thinks the Astros could try to build a package around Alex Bregman.
– There’s more speculation Matt Wieters could wind up in Washington, though their young catcher Pedro Severino looks promising. The Nats presumably can’t even give Wilson Ramos the qualifying offer now that he’s out until sometime next summer.
(Juan DeLeon/Icon Sportswire)
– One rival says the Phillies would be “insane” to give Jeremey Hellickson the qualifying offer, adding, “If I were him, I’d take it.”
Then again, in this market, with Ian Kennedy comparisons, he may beat it (though the rival said Kennedy’s better).
– Alan Mills, the Orioles’ Double-A pitching coach, is said to be in the mix for the major-league job. Mills has done a very good job in the minors and knows Buck Showalter from their days together with the Yankees when Mills was a righty out of the pen.
– Something heard: Ex-Indians boss Mark Shapiro turned down a big job with the Browns before going to the Jays to be their president.
– John Lackey will try to be the sixth player to participate in the World Series for three different winning teams. Fourteen received three winning rungs (counting the guys who either weren’t active for the Series or were traded in mid-year). Jack Morris, Lonnie Smith and Dave Stewart are among those with three winning rings.
– Seen in the crowd at Game 6 of the NLCS: Alfonso Soriano. You guessed it, he was rooting for the Cubs.
– Travis Wood’s top-five hitting pitchers in baseball: 1. Madison Bumgarner, 2. Jake Arrieta, 3. Wood, 4. Yovani Gallardo, 5. Adam Wainwright.
– Hendricks enjoyed walking around Chicago after winning Game 5, to a point. “It was so crazy, I tried to stay in as much as I could,” he said, with a smile. He also said it was nice to hear all the thanks from Cubs fans.
– Jason Hammel says he loves Chicago and the Cubs and wouldn’t mind coming back. The Cubs have a $12 million option with a $2 million buyout, and it seems likely they team will pick it up.
– Kris Bryant’s continuing deeds keep raising the question why the Astros didn’t grab him with the No. 1 pick. “Kris Bryant and Buster Posey were probably two of the easiest picks for No. 1 of anyone in the last (decade), and it didn’t work out that way,” one rival exec notes. That’s the loss of the Astros and the Rays, who took Mark Appel and Tim Beckham, respectively.
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