There were three separate deals made on Friday as teams cleared space on the 40-man roster and continued to reshape their rosters. Oakland and Toronto made a pitching swap, Texas and the Cubs traded a reliever for a prospect and the Braves dealt Cameron Maybin for you guessed it, minor league pitchers. This will cover the fantasy ramifications of each deal.
It would seem that the blue print for the Blue Jays trading for Jesse Chavez is in place with the mileage that Toronto received from Marco Estrada during the 2015 season. Milwaukee was frustrated with Estrada and dealt him for veteran first baseman Adam Lind. Estrada went on to win 13 games as the Blue Jays won the American League East.
Now the Blue Jays have traded for swing man Chavez who could either pitch in relief for Toronto or be a fourth or fifth starter for the upcoming season. Oakland acquired former failed starter Liam Hendriks, who pitched well out of the Toronto bullpen.
Texas and the Cubs have swapped pitching for prospects before. On Friday, the Cubs acquired Spencer Patton for minor league second baseman Frandy De La Rosa. Patton has the repertoire to succeed in the Cubs bullpen and the Rangers needed space on the 40-man roster.
Atlanta tried to shop Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher but found no takers so they moved Cameron Maybin and saved six million dollars in the process. Keeping with their form, the Braves have added two more arms to their fold as they restock the farm system during the rebuild. This may be the first of many moves for Atlanta but it stays with the plan. Speaking of the rebuild, the trade of Maybin may speed up the arrival of Mallex Smith to center field in Atlanta.
Here is each deal broken down for fantasy.
Jesse Chavez to Toronto
2015 Stats: 7 Wins, 15 Losses, 157 IP, 136:48 K:BB, 4.18 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 1.35 WHIP
Ground ball percentage 43.1 percent, swinging strike percentage 8.7
On the surface, this looks like a salary dump by the A’s, but it goes a bit deeper. Toronto learned on its run to the American League title that it needs pitching depth to contend and advance. Whether or not Toronto can sign a top free agent pitcher remains to be seen, but one thing is for sure, their window to win a World Series is shrinking. It was the reason that they traded the pitching prospects that they did to Detroit for David Price and management seems to realize that they need to win now.
Toronto also tried to trade for Chavez last summer and Josh Donaldson has sung his praises to the front office. But the fact that Chavez is a competitor is not only recognized by former teammates:
Things #BlueJays fans should know about Jesse Chavez: few players were more popular in clubhouse, w/ coaches than Chavez the past 3 years.
— Susan Slusser (@susanslusser) November 21, 2015
Can Chavez succeed in the plus hitting environment that is Rogers Centre? As listed above, the ground ball percentage for Chavez in 2015 was 43.1 percent. Here is his arsenal broken down:
Fastball: 92.8 MPH, 18.59 whiff per swing percentage, .185 batting average against
Sinker: 92.2 MPH, 8.33 whiff per swing percentage, .357 batting average against
Change: 85.3 MPH, 26.36 whiff per swing percentage, .296 batting average against
Slider: 84 MPH, 30.77 whiff per swing percentage, .290 batting average against
Curve: 76.4 MPH, 46.3 whiff per swing percentage, .200 batting average against
Cutter: 91 MPH, 23.53 whiff per swing percentage, .243 batting average against
Chavez primarily used his sinker (21.5 percent), cutter (34.7 percent) and his change (18 percent) of the time in 2015. But there should be interest in his batting average against and whiff rates with his curve. It is apparent that Chavez is not a top of the rotation pitcher, but he is major league average at least. But for Toronto, his value is in the fact that they have the option of using him as a starter or in the bullpen. Due to the grind of the regular season, having pitchers who can provide flexibility and length are important to a championship contender.
It would appear that Chavez could have an impact for Toronto due to increased run support and if he can morph his pitches to fit his new home, then double-digit wins could be in order. He is not a high strikeout pitcher with 136 in each of the last two seasons, but his FIP suggests he was better than his results in 2015. Toronto is banking on that and fantasy owners can take a chance late in drafts or the reserve round to find out.
Liam Hendriks to Oakland
2015 Stats: 5 Wins, 58 Games, 65 IP, 71:11 K:BB, 2.92 ERA, 2.14 FIP, 1.08 WHIP
Increased swinging strike percentage to 11.3 percent as a reliever in 2015
1.5 WAR in 2015 for Toronto
Due to the signing of Rich Hill, that was already covered by fellow Today’s Knuckleball writer Tim King, Oakland had flexibility in their rotation. This is what allowed them to trade Chavez for Hendriks.
Oakland is known for these types of deals and it also gives them team control of Hendriks for the next four years. Chavez can be a free agent at the end of the 2016 season. With all the struggles that Oakland had in the late innings in 2015, it makes sense to take a chance on a failed starter who thrived in the bullpen last year for Toronto.
Here is Hendriks’ arsenal:
Fastball: 95.6 MPH, 21.5 whiff per swing percentage, .138 batting average against
Sinker: 95.2 MPH, 15 whiff per swing percentage, .377 batting average against
Slider: 87.8 MPH, 36.7 whiff per swing percentage, .203 batting average against
Curve: 77.4 MPH, 24 whiff per swing percentage, .250 batting average against
Hendriks only gave up three home runs in relief in 2015, two off of his sinker and one from his slider. With the move to Oakland, Hendriks will not have to feel he has to rely on his sinker which according to the numbers above, was his least effective pitch.
Oakland’s ball park is much more forgivable to a fly ball pitcher and Hendriks can shelve the sinker if necessary. Using his fastball and slider with an occasional curve may be the best thing for him moving forward. He will need to improve against left-handed batters as he gave up a .283/.321/.425 slash line against. Right handed hitters only managed a .204/.242/.257 line against him so there is hope.
If Hendriks is going to work late innings he will need to be more effective against left-handed batters. Hendriks will have the chance to work in higher leverage for the Athletics and he can succeed, but time will tell is he can handle the lefty bats.
Cameron Maybin to the Tigers
2015 Stats: 141 Games, 65 Runs, 10 HR, 59 RBI, 23 SB; .267/.327/.370
After using Maybin in a trade to the Marlins to acquire Miguel Cabrera, they are now reunited in Detroit. Maybin is now a Tiger coming over in a three-player deal in which the Tigers gave up two pitchers to acquire him. Although Maybin has had a checkered injury past, he managed to play 141 games in 2015 for the Braves and the Padres.
He got off to a hot start but did tail off at the end of the year. This season will tell us if it was fatigue or adjustments. While his stat line for the year looks nice on the surface, here are his splits by half from 2015:
Maybin 1H: 77 Games, 38 Runs, 8 HR, 44 RBI, 15 SB; .289/.356/.418, 115 wRC+
Maybin 2H: 60 Games, 27 Runs, 2 HR, 15 RBI, 8 SB; .240/.289/.311, 86 wRC+
Not only did Maybin show a decline in the second half in counting stats, but his on-base percentage and slugging collapsed. Atlanta is in the midst of a rebuild and they got the most out of Maybin that they could. Moving him now while he still had some value made sense. They also cleared six million dollars from the books.
Of more concern about Maybin was his defense.
Maybin had a UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) of negative seven. For comparison, Maybin had a UZR of 8.4 in 2011. There can be regression in defense as a center fielder ages, but this is something to watch as well since Detroit needs strong outfield defense in their spacious park.
Projecting Maybin to do anything more than 2015 would be a mistake, he may be able to replicate it, keep his second half in mind. Pay for the stolen bases, but watch the average and power to regress. Maybin has slashed .251/.313/.366 for his career.
Ian Krol and Gabe Speier to the Braves and Mallex watch is on
As difficult as this rebuild has to be for Braves fans to witness, the front office has made a concerted effort to add young pitching in almost every trade. The most recent deal in which Atlanta moved Maybin is no different as the Braves added two left-handed relievers in Ian Krol and Gabe Speier. Krol spent time in the majors in 2015 but Speier was only in Single-A for the Tigers. Here is each pitchers repertoire and results from 2015:
Ian Krol
2015: 2 Wins, 3 Losses, 44 IP, 26:17 K:BB, 5.79 ERA, 1.71 WHIP
Fastball 94.2 MPH, Sinker 94 MPH, Change 85.7 MPH, Slider 88.6 MPH, Curve 78.3 MPH
Although Krol is a lefty, he did struggle with left-handed batters last year. He allowed a slash line of .326/.451/.452 to them with a .254/.355/.455 line against right-handed hitters. At the end of the year Krol had streamlined his pitches to his fastball, slider and curve. This is interesting as his slider had the highest whiff per swing rate of 30.77 last year with his curve in second at 29.17 percent. If Krol can get out left-handed batters, he could be a useful piece for the bullpen in Atlanta in 2016.
Gabe Speier
2015: 4 Wins, 2 Losses, 44 IP, 36:12 K:BB, 2.86 ERA, 1.18 WHIP
Fastball is low 90’s and can touch 94, throws a breaking ball and a change
Has already had a Tommy John Surgery
Speier is a left-handed pitcher as well and had success as a reliever at Single-A for the Tigers. It remains to be seen if the Braves will keep him in relief or transition him to a starter. With his ability to touch 94 MPH after Tommy John Surgery, it makes sense for Atlanta to take a chance on the young southpaw.
For fantasy purposes, the most important part of the Maybin trade is that now all that is keeping Mallex Smith out of center field for the Braves is Michael Bourn. At a time when only seven players stole 30 bases or more in 2015, speed is a need for fantasy players in leagues, especially the deeper that they are. Check out Smith’s year in the minors last year:
Mallex Smith (2 levels): 126 Games, 84 Runs, 2 HR, 35 RBI, 57 SB; .306/.373/.386
Smith did get caught stealing 13 times in his 70 attempts, but there are very encouraging signs in regards to his game. For his career in the minors, Smith has slashed .295/.380/.387 with 226 stolen bases in 391 games. He is a high contact hitter and struck out 85 times last year with 51 walks in 484 at bats.
Smith will be 23 in May and could use a bit more seasoning in the minors, but he could be up once the Super 2 date passes in 2016. Stashing him late in leagues with deep rosters or in National League-only formats could pay high dividends. His name will come with more helium as the season approaches, but remember his name next spring.
Spencer Patton to the Cubs for Frandy De La Rosa
In a smaller move, the Cubs acquired relief pitcher Spencer Patton from the Rangers for minor league second base prospect Frandy De La Rosa. Patton could be a bullpen piece for the Cubs but he will be 28 in February so his space on the Rangers 40-man roster was at risk. Here is Patton’s 2015 at Triple-A and with the Rangers:
Patton Triple-A: 2 Wins, 11 Saves, 27 IP, 36:9 K:BB, 1.67 ERA, 1.11 WHIP
Patton in Texas: 1 Win, 1 Loss, 3 Holds, 24 IP, 28:12 K:BB, 9.00 ERA, 5.51 FIP, 1.5 WHIP
Patton throws his fastball at 93 MPH on average and uses a slider at 85.4 MPH. His slider is his out pitch as it generated a 49.12 whiff per swing percentage with the Rangers in 2015. He will need to throw strikes and command his fastball better but he could be a useful piece in the sixth or seventh inning for the Cubs.
As for Frandy De La Rosa, he will only be 20 in January and made it to Low-A as a 19-year-old. De La Rosa hit .273/.315/.367 with no home runs, 30 RBI and 11 stolen bases in 62 games last season. He is a switch hitter and will probably start the year in Single-A for Texas this year but for a full year.
Luis Sardinas was also dealt to the Mariners, but with Robinson Cano manning second base, it is not apparent where he will slot in for Seattle. With more moves sure to come, stay up to date by following us on Twitter @myknuckleballs or by bookmarking our site.
Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com, BrooksBaseball.net, MiLB.com, MLB.com
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