One of the best things about fantasy baseball is the marathon teaches many lessons along the way. No matter the league size and how many you are a part of, each one has different results due to moves along the way. Here is a list of the things I learned along the way.
Trust Your Gut
This not only paid off for me in daily fantasy, but also in leagues to a point. I was never on the Johnny Cueto groundswell and went against my instincts and paid up for him in my home keeper league. Not only did Cueto disappoint, but his injury questions and struggles in Kansas City that were cured by how Salvador Perez positioned his glove makes me worry more about him going forward. In that same league, I traded for Carlos Gonzalez of Colorado with an expiring contract and rode his hot bat to the top of the standings in most categories. In fact, if Cueto of 2014 had shown up, this team – despite its flaws – may have won, but fell three points short for a second place finish.
In the Fantasy Assembly Friends and Staff league, another second place trophy is on the mantle. My draft was solid in the slow email format but I had a feeling about Bryce Harper this year and played it safe taking Ryan Braun at the turn since I had pick number one (Mike Trout) then had to wait until picks 24 and 25. I did find solace in taking Max Scherzer as the pitching run was about to happen and he was strong except for a rough patch in August. But if I had taken Harper over Braun, this may have been a different team. That, along with not winning the bid on Carlos Correa to the eventual league champ, Paul Hartman. Totally was all in on Correa, but at least he will be a part of Alec’s Angels in my home keeper league for some time going forward.
One of the teams I was most proud of was the 15-team writer’s league in which I was the second place finisher the year before. This team was anchored by Miguel Cabrera, who fell to me in the first round, then missed time to injury. I did not trust my gut; taking a pitcher may have been the best move in a league this deep as there were bats available late. This team sunk to near the bottom of the standings due to the losses in the rotation with Marcus Stroman, Brandon McCarthy and Hyun-Jin Ryu all missing most if not all of the season.
In a league this deep, taking that many chances on the pitching staff was a mistake. Not to mention that at one point, Jason Kipnis, Miggy and George Springer were on the disabled list at the same time to go with all the losses to pitching staff. This team somehow finished in the top half of the league, but it was hard work and a struggle right down to the end, when pitching Jared Eickhoff in his last three starts paid off huge dividends. Yes, Eickhoff of the Phillies. Fifteen team leagues do this to you.
Another second place finish was achieved in the FSWA American League-Only writers league I was in, hosted by Fred Zinkie of MLB.com. This team did not have the arms to compete at the top end as one writer just hoarded them in the draft room. Gambling on Drew Hutchison in this format was beneficial in the wins category but he killed my ratios. Hard-luck pitcher Jose Quintana pitched much better than his record would indicate. But the best part of this team was there was not a closer selected in the draft but finished first in saves. This was due to drafting Andrew Miller before he had the job and adding both Shawn Tolleson and Roberto Osuna. You can wait on saves, but not aces. Lesson learned.
On a side note, I was totally invested in Manny Machado in this type of format but got cute waiting one more round to get him at a value. Never again; if I want him, I am taking a player when I think he is worth it, regardless of what the draft room says or reacts to. No one won a league based on the message board. In fact, stay off the message board and stay on your script for the draft and dominate the room. You can be social after. This is, in fact, business.
Health is a Skill
It may be time to really look at players and judge if they do not play full seasons or have lingering health issues. Miguel Cabrera was a prime example of this. Yes, he won the batting title in the American League, but his drop in home runs and RBI could not justify taking him in the first round. Next year’s draft will be very interesting due to the steep increase in players showing age much sooner with the new drug rules in place in baseball along with the infusion of youth this year. A season like this is hard to recall in which so many rookies made an impact not only for their teams, but in fantasy as well.
Back to the health thing, players like Giancarlo Stanton go under the microscope in drafts for 2016. There is something to be said for taking a player like Adam Jones who you know the floor and ceiling of along with being on the field. At some point, the 50 home run allure of Stanton has to happen with him playing 150 games. Stanton has done that once in six years in the majors. He did play 145 in 2013, but if you average out his first six seasons with the Marlins, Stanton averages 119 games a year. People will look to Bryce Harper playing a full season this year and use that as a rallying cry on Stanton, but if you take Giancarlo you almost have to slot in at least one appearance on the disabled list.
There have been numerous studies on the effectiveness of pitching mechanics preventing injury and, almost universally, scouts felt that the delivery by Stephen Strasburg was conducive to injury. Not only that, an injury threw off his release point this year which limited his effectiveness and then had Strasburg back on the disabled list. Do not get me wrong, Strasburg is an elite talent and could be great. But he will not be on any of my teams next year. This is due in part to the inevitable fact he will get hurt and his toughness has been questioned openly by his own beat writers and those in other cities. This goes back to the Cueto thing above, trust your gut. I will be shocked if Strasburg makes at least 25 starts next year.
Stay Active
This seems cliche, but playing a league out until the end is not only in your best interests as a fantasy player, but it does not cause a strain on any relationships in home leagues. While keeper leagues and redraft have different formats, staying active in both makes a difference. Leaving a vampire lineup with three people on the disabled list in a head-to-head league can cause problems for teams that are trying to rise in the standings and your team is a mere road bump for a team that they are chasing.
In a keeper format, sometime after the All-Star Break it can be apparent that a team needs a rebuild, so reload for next year and stash some fliers. My home league presented some opportunity for next year on the waiver wire. I was able to stash Marcus Stroman for a dollar in August before his return and will be able to keep him for the next two years at that price. Another owner dropped Devin Mesoraco due to injuries and he is also on the roster for next year for under five dollars as a catcher who may be in the outfield to unlock his power potential. Think Evan Gattis, but in the National League. These types of moves are important and necessary in deep or keeper leagues to not only play for this year, but in the years ahead.
Hard Work Early Makes Drafting Easy
In effort to double the efforts of last year, the process of projections and rankings will start much sooner for myself this year. It is gratifying to finish second in very tough leagues with other writers or to make a run to the top half with a team riddled with injuries, but second place is not a place I want to reside. In the immortal words of Ricky Bobby, if you ain’t first, you’re last.
Maybe I will be like the Giants and win in even numbered years; suffice it to say, the grind begins now. Marking players who could be potential buys on the cheap like Anthony Rendon and marking down breakout potential players like Aaron Altherr will be pivotal to making next year a success.
There will be reviews of the bold predictions from this year to see what was right, close or just way off as a review segment to see where more lessons can be learned. This is a process my friends, not an event.
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