First base has historically been where the sluggers play, and the position has been so deep in talent that many fantasy owners have felt a greater sense of urgency about filling other slots. Yet on Draft Day 2016, there weren’t many first basemen that owners could rely on for elite-level production.
That made it all the more important to land one of Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Rizzo, Miguel Cabrera, Edwin Encarnacion, Joey Votto or Jose Abreu. You could have also added Chris Davis to this short list, though he was arguably even more valuable in a thinning pool of elite outfielders.
For the most part, targeting a first baseman from this group paid off. With the exception of Abreu and Davis, the hitters in this cluster were once again among the best that the position had to offer this season, but they had a little more company within the upper ranks. Daniel Murphy made an argument to be deserving of the “elite” label, though owners will probably be more inclined to use him at second base in 2017. Wil Myers and Freddie Freeman had breakouts that put them in the vicinity of Encarnacion and Rizzo in terms of fantasy value. If Hanley Ramirez’s second-half power binge is indicative of things to come, he deserves a place in this conversation.
How we interpret the surges of Myers and Freeman, the resurrection of Ramirez and the fall of Abreu and Davis could have a lot to say about how we determine keeper values. Not only will our interpretations influence how much we value these players for next season, but also the value we place on Goldschmidt, Rizzo, Cabrera, Encarnacion and Votto. As good and as reliable as these five first basemen have been, if we enter 2017 believing that Myers, Freeman, Ramirez, Abreu and Davis all are roughly on a par with them, it makes the former five less valuable as keepers. The less sanguine we are about the latter five, the more of a premium we should place on Goldschmidt et. al.
If the cost of keeping one of the first basemen in the “Goldschmidt group” is a draft pick, it’s almost always going to be a moot point. Each could be worth a first-round pick (depending on where you are in the draft order) and all are no-brainers for any pick after the first round. The potential expansion of the first base elite only cheapens their value if you have to keep them at a given dollar amount.
Even in those formats, there may not be any reason to discount any of these top performers. Aside from the first four months of his rookie season, Abreu has been a merely good power hitter — not a great one. Davis strikes out too much, making him too dependent on the vagaries of BABIP, which is something you don’t want from a fly ball hitter. Myers’ breakout stat line relies heavily on outsized production from two months (April and June). Few doubt that Ramirez still has tremendous upside, but he has fooled us many times before. In terms of consistency and high-level performance, Goldschmidt, Rizzo, Cabrera, and Encarnacion are in a class of their own.
Still, if you are lucky enough to have two top-performing first basemen, you may be able to relate to this owner’s dilemma.
@almelchiorBB @KnuckleballFRS 12 team 10 keep. Votto or Kluber? Freeman or Carrasco?
— LaWallatron (@account_stats) October 3, 2016
Freeman may have made the best case for adding a new first baseman to the elite group. With a fly ball-heavy approach, Freeman increased his Isolated Power from .195 in 2015 to .267 this season. He may have surpassed Votto as a home run threat, but Votto still has the all-around better package, as he profiles to hit for a higher average and on-base percentage. I’m not sure why LaWallatron can’t keep all four players, and in a 10-keeper league, Freeman would be worth keeping around to use in a utility or DH slot. But if we have to choose from these pairings, I’d want Votto and Carlos Carrasco. With Carrasco expected to be completely recovered from his hand injury by spring, there won’t be much separating him from Corey Kluber, but Votto is still a step above Freeman in value.
More likely, your keeper dilemmas — like these two — will involve first basemen on the fringes of eliteness, and not the likes of Votto.
@almelchiorBB @KnuckleballFRS HanRam vs. Freeman 11 team auction roto. Keep at 2017 market rate. May need to save $$ for other keepers
— Kevin Keegan (@SleepyKeegs) October 3, 2016
@almelchiorBB @KnuckleballFRS I have Christ Davis in a keep 5 league. Not sure if I take him over G. Sanchez or W. Myers.
— Mediocrates (@dundundunnn) October 3, 2016
I’m more inclined to buy into Freeman’s 2016 performance than Ramirez’s, given that a sudden breakout makes sense for a someone who just turned 27 in September. Then again, even though he has been wildly inconsistent, we have seen Ramirez perform at this level before. With a strong second half, Ramirez finished with a .219 Iso, but since 2010, he has posted an Iso of .200 or higher only once. That was in 2013 (.293), when he played only 86 games for the Dodgers.
Freeman’s power surge looks more legit, and he’s the better bet to post a high BABIP and a high OBP. Unless his market value is at least $5 above Ramirez’s, I’d keep Freeman.
Davis, like Ramirez, is prone to wild year-to-year swings in value, but both his upside and his overall track record are more enticing than Myers’. So this boils down to a Davis vs. Gary Sanchez dilemma, and it’s a tough one.
Both are hard to project for 2017 — Davis because of inconsistency and Sanchez because of inexperience, and both should be far more productive than the players in the tier that sits just below them. I’d give the nod to Sanchez here, even though I worry that his bust potential is greater than Davis’. I’m much more comfortable with the fallback options at first base, including Carlos Santana, Chris Carter and Mike Napoli, than I am at catcher, where I might have to settle for Yasmani Grandal, Willson Contreras or J.T. Realmuto.
Now how about some deeper league options?
@almelchiorBB @KnuckleballFRS T. Joseph $10. Will he be everyday 1B for Phils, and will he be a more consistent hitter next season?
— Ryan Steffen (@stovetopsteffen) October 3, 2016
@almelchiorBB can keep up to 23 of 30, would you advise keeping 3 "unproven" (Bird, Cron, Vogelbach) 1B guys? Or am I overvaluing "upside"?
— Nando's Rogue Button (@theroguebutton) October 3, 2016
If this is a 12-team mixed Rotisserie league, $10 seems really steep for Tommy Joseph. He looks like close to a lock as the Phillies’ everyday first baseman next season, and he showed this season that he can hit for power against both righties and lefties. I don’t know if Joseph will be more consistent, but he’s limited in terms of his potential for a high batting average and on-base percentage. I doubt he will have more to offer than Justin Bour or free-agent-t0-be Brandon Moss.
Joseph may not crack my top-20 at first base next spring, so in a standard mixed Roto league, a $1 or $2 price tag looks more appropriate. In an NL-only league, $10 seems like a fair price.
As for Bird, Cron and Vogelbach, if this is an AL-only league, I don’t see the harm of keeping all three among your 23. In a mixed league, however, it probably won’t pay off. Unless your roster is on the thin side, there are almost certainly better keepers than Cron and Vogelbach.
Having settled in to a steady level of production in three major league seasons, Cron doesn’t have much upside heading into his age-27 season. Vogelbach could be useful in an on-base percentage format, but it remains to be seen if his power will translate from the Pacific Coast League to Safeco Field.
If I were going to speculate on one of the three in a mixed league, it would be Bird, but he’s not without his own risks. As an extreme fly ball hitter who struck out in 30 percent of his rookie-year plate appearances, Bird could be a drag on your team’s batting average, and if he struggles, he could be supplanted by Tyler Austin.
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