There are few certainties in life: death, taxes and the Houston Rockets chasing after marquee free agents in the offseason.
For the last four summers, the Rockets threw money at big names in an attempt to build a contender. Jeremy Lin, Omer Asik, Dwight Howard, Trevor Ariza and Ty Lawson all wound up in Houston over the years either by trade or signing on the dotted line.
Unfortunately for general manager Daryl Morey, that strategy hasn’t culminated with an NBA championship.
That won’t discourage Morey from scouring the market once again this summer. With up to $46 million in cap space, the club could potentially add a top-tier free agent or two. Houston will need all of the help it can get after an underwhelming 2015-16 campaign.
The team followed up a trip to the Western Conference Finals by backing into the playoffs at 41-41 last season. From there, the Rockets drew the Golden State Warriors in round one and were quickly ushered out of the postseason. Afterwards, they tabbed offensive maestro Mike D’Antoni to be their third different head coach in less than a year.
Houston will also enlist superstar James Harden to recruit free agents to “Space City,” per ESPN.com’s Calvin Watkins.
“Last year was very frustrating as an organization in Houston,” Harden said. “So for me, I think trying to get our winning ways back and back to championship ways. Just being part of that free-agency process and trying to get guys to Houston and trying to win. I think that right now is something I’m trying to focus on.”
The Rockets didn’t do much to help their cause on draft night. With no first-round pick, Morey took a chance on a couple of projects in centers Chinanu Onuaku and Zhou Qi. That puts even more pressure on the embattled GM to come up big in free agency.
Key Free Agents
Dwight Howard
Donatas Motiejunas (restricted)
Terrence Jones
Josh Smith
Jason Terry
Howard’s final year in Houston ended on a bad note. When he wasn’t being shopped during the first half of the season, he was being phased out of the offense. He also reportedly feuded with Harden, who failed to build chemistry with his larger sidekick. After posting his worst offensive numbers (13.7 points on 8.5 field goal attempts) since his rookie season, D12 declined his $23.2 million player option and became a free agent.
Surprisingly, the team is willing to bring Howard back, but refuse to give him the max contract he’s seeking, per USA Today‘s Sam Amick. If it wasn’t already obvious, “Superman” is as good as gone.
Jones will likely follow Howard out the door. After a four-year career hindered by injuries, the team didn’t make a qualifying offer to the restricted free agent. It was a strange decision by Houston, especially considering the fact it tendered the equally injury-prone Motiejunas instead.
Smith’s second stint with the Rockets was a total flop. He was acquired from the Los Angeles Clippers in January, but contributed just 6.6 points and 2.9 rebounds per game before falling out of the rotation. With Michael Beasley as well as second-year prospects Montrezl Harrell and Sam Dekker waiting in the wings, there’s little incentive to retain Smith.
Terry, who will turn 39 in September, wants to play two more seasons before jumping into coaching. He will likely spend his final years on a team that’s closer to an NBA championship. The Rockets signed undrafted Oregon State point guard Gary Payton II, who could take Terry’s spot if no other additions are made.
Of the quintet, Motiejunas is the most likely to return. He was nearly traded to the Detroit Pistons at the deadline, but a bad back forced the deal to be voided. Those concerns may keep the 25-year-old restricted free agent from nabbing any huge offers this summer. However, if he can stay healthy, the graceful seven-footer could be a nice fit in D’Antoni’s scheme.
Team Needs/Targets
Point Guard
Power Forward
Veteran bench help
Anyone who can play defense
Beyond Harden, Trevor Ariza and young center Clint Capela, the Rockets’ roster is an open book. The team could use upgrades at power forward and point guard. The absence of Jones and Howard creates a need up front. Meanwhile, incumbent starting floor general Patrick Beverley is more of a defensive specialist than a long-term answer.
According to Watkins, the Rockets have their sights set on some of the biggest names available this summer: Kevin Durant, Al Horford, Hassan Whiteside and Ryan Anderson. Houston also has interest in top point guard Mike Conley, but the feeling apparently isn’t mutual:
Mike Conley will not meet with the Rockets according to a source.
— Calvin Watkins (@calvinwatkins) June 30, 2016
Even though free agency doesn’t officially start until July 1, the team isn’t faring much better with its other targets either. Despite his relationship with Harden, Durant reportedly gave the idea of reuniting in Houston a hard “no.” As for Whiteside, his choices are supposedly narrowed down to returning to South Beach or signing with Dallas, per The Vertical’s Adrian Wojnarowski:
Sources: As 12:01 AM nears, free agent Hassan Whiteside's focus is centered on Miami and Dallas. Decision could come quickly on July 1.
— Adrian Wojnarowski (@WojVerticalNBA) June 30, 2016
On the bright side, the team was able to schedule a July 1 meeting with Horford, its alleged No. 1 target. Plenty of teams are pursuing the 30-year-old, four-time All-Star, including the Oklahoma City Thunder and Boston Celtics.
However, just because Horford has better options doesn’t mean Houston should be counted out completely. Morey persuaded guys like Lin and Howard to come to town when a championship was less-than-promised. He also came close to landing Chris Bosh a couple summers ago.
If the team can’t land Horford, Anderson is a solid backup plan. The sweet-shooting big man holds a career 37.7 percent mark from downtown, and he could thrive in an offense that loves the three-ball as much as Houston does. Also, after playing mostly a reserve role in New Orleans, Ryno might pounce at the chance of being a starter. Anderson would provide good spacing for Capela, who is more of an interior threat.
The Rockets are also looking at Anderson’s teammate Eric Gordon, per ESPN’s Chris Broussard. The pursuit of the 27-year-old Gordon is interesting because, like Harden, he’s a shooting guard. Would he play a sixth-man role? Could the two play together, with Harden assuming most of the facilitating responsibilities? What about Gordon’s extensive injury history?
Regardless of position, the team’s main concern should be improving the defense. Houston allowed 106.4 points per game (25th in the league) and let opponents shoot 45.9 percent from the field (18th) last season. With Howard gone and walking turnstile Harden leading the way, an infusion of defensive talent is imperative. D’Antoni added Jeff Bzdelik to mold the defense, but he’s going to need some more bodies to work with.
The team should also add veteran depth to its second unit. Beyond Beasley and Corey Brewer, the bench is very inexperienced. Dekker barely played as a rookie due to back troubles. K.J. McDaniels didn’t see a ton of playing time, either. With Terry’s possible departure, the only options behind Beverley are Andrew Goudelock and GP2.
With plenty of money to burn, it’s less about the who and more about the what.
Big Offseason Question: Can the Rockets spend their way back into the NBA title picture?
While Houston has invested heavily in free agency and offseason trading over the years, the money hasn’t been well-spent.
Lin was traded to the Los Angeles Lakers in the final year of his contract, and Morey needed to attach a first-round pick to entice L.A. to take him. Asik was sent to New Orleans that same summer. Lawson was benched two weeks into his first season with the Rockets and eventually waived midseason. Howard was practically dying to opt out this summer.
In truth, the idea of building a contender through free agency and blockbuster trades is old hat. The Warriors were able to win a championship last season and go 73-9 this year with the core of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green. All three were drafted by the team. Before signing LaMarcus Aldridge, the Spurs built a dynasty utilizing mostly homegrown talent and cheap veteran signings. Tim Duncan and Tony Parker were drafted by San Antonio, while Kawhi Leonard’s draft rights were acquired on draft day in a deal with Indiana.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have Kevin Durant (at least as of right now) Russell Westbrook and Steven Adams. They also once had Harden and Serge Ibaka. All drafted by the franchise. The Los Angeles Clippers traded for Chris Paul to go with Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan, who were added on draft night.
Even the defending NBA champion Cleveland Cavaliers are more built than bought. The team drafted LeBron James in 2003, and after taking his talents to South Beach, he returned home. Kyrie Irving was drafted No. 1 overall by the Cavs, albeit thanks to a midseason trade with the Clippers. Tristan Thompson was the glue that held that team together and he was Cleveland’s No. 4 pick in 2011. The club’s biggest move was trading for and re-signing Kevin Love, who made a minimal impact in the Finals.
The main exception would be LeBron’s four straight Finals run with the Heat, but even that came with the help of the Miami-drafted Dwyane Wade.
For years, Houston has burnt both ends of the candle. They’ve invested draft picks in guys like Jones, Dekker, Harrell and Capela, only to bury them behind high-priced superstars. Every February, Morey finds a way to tinker with his roster, which disrupts team chemistry. The result is a fractured group that never gets a real chance to mesh together.
Even if the Rockets are able to land someone like Horford or Anderson or even Durant, that alone doesn’t make them contenders. It’s going to take uncharacteristic patience to both nurture the young talent already on the team and properly assimilate the big names coming in. Otherwise, all of these fancy moves will continue to end like Lin, Asik and Howard’s tenures did.
Championships are won because of the intangibles, and no amount of cap space can buy that.
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