The first week of July featured a shocking turn of events with the Atlanta Hawks and Boston Celtics, as both teams made moves that could dramatically change their style of play for the 2016-17 season.
First, Dwight Howard decided to leave Houston for Atlanta, agreeing to a three-year, $70.5 million deal to return to his home city for the first time since high school. Not soon after, Al Horford rejected the Hawks’ offer and headed north, accepting Boston’s offer of a four-year, $113 million contract.
To line out the details of both the Hawks and Celtics’ offseason changes, I rounded up Colby Giacubeno to discuss everything through an email thread. Together, we touched on the player changes, coaching concepts and both team’s on-court scenarios.
You can follow Colby on Twitter, @ColbyGiacubeno. He’s a fellow writer for Today’s Fastbreak, as well as multiple other outlets. Enjoy our conversation, if you wish.
Shane Young: Good morning Colby,
You’re based in the Baltimore/Washington D.C. area, but just recently took over as editor for the Atlanta Hawks’ FanSided site, Soaring Down South. The news of Al Horford walking away from Atlanta during free agency obviously made a profound impact on the team’s future.
But, we’ll get to the Hawks’ side of things in a bit.
First, this is a massive upgrade for the Boston Celtics, who gained one of the three most impactful big men in the league. For what Horford does on both ends of the court, the only better addition Boston could’ve made in 2016 was adding Kevin Durant. Instead, they were still able to land a player that accounted for 9.4 win shares last season, 17th out of all NBA talents.
At a first glance, how does Horford fit within the structure of Boston’s offense? You’re pairing him with a point guard (Isaiah Thomas) that probably isn’t as skilled as Jeff Teague, but one that’s more dynamic with the ball.
Colby Giacubeno: I feel like Horford fits perfectly within Boston’s offense. The reason why this move was imperative for the Celtics at this point is because they had no dominant player in the frontcourt to force defenses to stretch their coverage. As we saw in the playoffs, the Hawks took the approach when guarding them to crowd their guards on the perimeter and leave their bigs in the paint, simply because Jared Sullinger and Amir Johnson aren’t threats from deep.
Horford also fits in the sense of how much the Celtics run pick-and-roll sets with point guard Isaiah Thomas last season. Thomas ranked 13th in pick-and-roll possessions as the ball handler with a total of 568. Horford was fourth in the league amongst players as the roller with 301 total possessions. My assumption is head coach Brad Stevens will utilize the pick-and-rolls quite often between the All-Star duo, which will ultimately open up Jae Crowder and Avery Bradley for threes as the defense will be forced to react to either a roll or pop from Horford. In Boston, Thomas hasn’t played with a big man that’s as skilled as Horford scoring-wise, so we could see his assist average increase significantly in 2016-17.
AP Photo/John Bazemore, File
Young: Your point about Horford’s screen-roll game helping Jae Crowder and Avery Bradley, more than anyone, is definitely sound. In a general sense, a lot of people only view pick-and-rolls as an offensive weapon between two players. That’s not the case, especially when defenses choose to “hedge” hard. If Horford is a great screen-setter for Boston, defenses may rush two guys at Thomas — to prevent him from getting inside the lane.
That automatically means Horford is alone in open space, able to freely dash inside (Thomas’s height makes it difficult to deliver that pass). Simple math indicates that’s a 4-on-3 for Boston, forcing a defender to rotate and step in front of Horford’s drives. Or, you know, take a few steps toward him to cover his jumper. More defenders collapsing to the middle means one thing: Perimeter allowance. Say hello to cleaner, more open threes for Bradley and Crowder, who are already grooming into solid outside shooters.
Brad Stevens clearly needed the floor spacing and playmaking abilities of Horford, since his team was lamentable from distance last year. They attempted 2,142 long-range shots and only hit 33.5 percent of them. Only three other teams in history have taken that many and shot that poorly. Philadelphia, you guys own two of them. Let’s laugh at Cody Daniel on that note.
What do you think this does defensively? Horford is by far a better team defender and more fundamentally sound than Sullinger, Johnson or Olynyk. Heck, he’s even a little more useful than Dwight on that end, in 2016.
Giacubeno: Having Horford on the defensive end will be a luxury that Stevens and his Celtics will surely enjoy. While a guy like Amir Johnson has the athleticism to switch out on the perimeter, you can’t leave him on an island with a more agile player. It’s a recipe for disaster. On the other hand, Sullinger and Olynyk simply don’t have the athleticism to stay in front of quicker players, which was evident defending the screen-roll last season.
Horford allows Stevens to approach specifically these play types differently. He has the athleticism to switch until the guard can recover, while also obtaining the ability to get back to his original matchup. The big thing here is avoiding a total switch without leaving the guard with a wide-open shot during that process.
Another positive that Horford offers is that he can also bang with the bigger players inside. During his time in Atlanta, Paul Millsap would often guard the more agile big man in the frontcourt while Horford did the battling duties down low. Now that he’s in Boston, along with teams using more of a smaller overall lineup, he’ll be forced to guard on the perimeter more than he is used to. But, it won’t be a rough transition whatsoever for him.
He isn’t a dynamite rim protector by any means, but at 6’10,” he can definitely force distorted shots, which can almost be viewed as effective as a blocked shot. Stevens will have fun with throwing Horford in different situations and he has the freedom to do so considering their elite perimeter guards in Bradley and Crowder can always clean up the mess if there is one.
Young: All true. That’s the foremost reason why this move helps them just as much defensively. Think about this: You’re adding a player in Horford, who was a +2.08 in Defensive Real Plus-Minus, to a team that already had Jared Sullinger (+2.48 in 23.6 minutes per game) and Kelly Olynyk (2.13 in only 20 minutes per). Don’t let those numbers trick you into believing they’re better defenders than Horford, since they likely would’ve dipped had they been given more minutes. But the point is this: you’re adding to the physical toughness you already had near the rim, although Sullinger might be on his way out.
I really do trust Boston’s ability to be the No. 1 defense in basketball next season, considering they were already fourth behind San Antonio, Atlanta and Indiana in terms of points allowed per 100 possessions. We aren’t too sure if losing Andrew Bogut and Harrison Barnes is going to disrupt Golden State’s defense right off the bat, but I would venture to say they’ll be in the top three next year. Boston also rid itself of Evan Turner, who made a few costly mistakes here and there.
At this point, it’s a bit laughable that Crowder and Bradley are only set to make $14.4 million combined next season — while Timofey Mozgov is making more than that alone, and Tyler Johnson is now earning almost 90 percent of that. What a world we’re a part of.
Let’s stick along the lines of Coach Stevens for a second. How do you think this helps Horford? He’s going from one of the three or four smartest X’s and O’s personalities in the league with Mike Budenholzer, to someone in Stevens who values the relationship-building aspect of basketball above all else. Now, that’s not to say Budenholzer isn’t one of the most sociable coaches out there — because he is — but we’ve heard nothing but delightful things about Stevens since he took over for Doc Rivers.
Giacubeno: Talk about a win/win for Horford right? Going from a greatly respected coach in Budenholzer to arguably one of the best basketball minds in Brad Stevens. And as you stated Shane, Stevens is one of the elite in terms of building relationships with his players. In my opinion, the coaches that best connect with their players on a relationship standpoint is Gregg Popovich, Steve Kerr, Brad Stevens, Steve Clifford and Scott Brooks.
It may sound cliche, but when a player can really connect with his coach on a personal level as well as a basketball level, it maximizes their production. It makes them more willing to do things in benefit of the team rather than themselves. The Celtics are one of those teams where it only takes a couple games to figure out the exact role of every single player, and you can look no further than Stevens’ leadership for the reasoning behind that.
From all that I’ve gathered, Horford had no issues with Budenholzer, but playing for a guy like Stevens usually brings out the best in players not only because he puts them in positions to be successful, but also because his players respect him too much to give him anything less than 110 percent effort.
AP Photo/Elise Amendola
Young: Yeah, because if you look back at some of Evan Turner’s interviews or listen to some podcasts he joined during his Boston days, you’ll hear ample praise of Stevens. Seriously, Turner expressed that Stevens is someone who got him back into actually loving the game, and wanting to continue playing it. This stuff isn’t just nonsense; it’s really what players are saying about Stevens. He brings a dynamic of discipline, but not in the same way a coach such as Don Nelson, George Karl or Rick Adelman would bring. It’s more about fun discipline, and being closer to these guys’ age and generational interests.
Keep in mind, Turner said those inspiration things about Stevens AFTER he played for Frank Vogel for a few months. Vogel happens to be one of the six best coaches in the league, and for guys to still favor Stevens’ style is pretty revealing.
Looking at the Hawks’ outlook on things, this offseason has altered their starting lineup in the two most important positions on the floor. All-Star point guard, Jeff Teague, is out the door to Indianapolis. This goes along with Horford being replaced with Dwight Howard, who made a homecoming move to play in his birth state of Georgia.
Now, there are a couple things that concern me about Atlanta’s new challenge. While we’re essentially slobbering over the production a Thomas-Horford pairing could have, I feel the exact opposite about a Dennis Schroder-Dwight Howard element under Budenholzer. It doesn’t seem reassuring after the three years Atlanta’s coaching staff has spent trying to stress pace-and-space, along with going “5-out,” which puts five capable shooters on the court.
How do you view this coming season for Atlanta, given the changes thus far? (There could be more ahead)
Giacubeno: I view Atlanta’s situation in a few different ways.
Yes, they did replace Horford with Howard, which can seem like extreme opposites, but it also means that they have added a new dynamic to their offense. With all signs pointing to Schroder taking over as the starting point guard, the Hawks will finally have a big man they can utilize pick-and-rolls with that end in lob finishes. Horford and Paul Millsap are athletic, but they aren’t above-the-rim big men that have become so valuable in the league since Howard entered. Just having that option once again opens up other scoring opportunities for others — Kent Bazemore hitting corner threes for one example.
It also gives them a legitimate rim protector. Now, Howard finished 15th in the NBA last season with 1.59 blocks per game, which his horrible compared to years past, but I think a lot of his issues had to do with being excluded on the offensive end. Everyone knows to keep the big fellas tuned into what is going on with the game, they have to get their touches. As we all know, a James Harden-run team isn’t going to be the best at making sure all are involved. In Atlanta with Budenholzer’s versatile and free-flowing offense, I think it will make Howard become more of a presence defensively like we’ve seen since he entered the league.
The big thing with Howard is making sure he is happy with the situation. Now that could be easy since he is returning to his hometown, but nothing is predictable with him. My initial thought on the signing was to panic, but after delving into what Howard could potentially return to under a well-run organization, my outlook on the deal changed and I think it adds the spice to this Hawks team it desperately needed to take that next step in becoming potential contenders.
Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Young: You’re right in a couple different ways, with the most accurate being that Howard gives them more of a chance to attack the rim after setting screens. With both at age 30, I think I agree that Dwight is still more athletic than Horford. He hasn’t shown too many signs of physical decline, since he can still get any rebound within his vicinity and loves to run the floor when he’s engaged. So yeah, Dwight is going to be the better option for lobs and keeping defenders scared of his rolls.
That’s the main part: Keeping him engaged. You nailed it by saying he wasn’t remotely connected in Houston. The Rockets were 24th in passes made per game (only 288), while the Hawks finished sixth with 324.5. So, I don’t think that will be an issue anymore. Also, we know Atlanta had nothing resembling a James Harden, who obtained a ridiculously high usage rating over the last couple years. The ball will move under Budenholzer, and Howard will love it the same way he did in Orlando.
Nevertheless, I just don’t see a realistic scenario where Atlanta is better off because of the replacement. After all:
Horford was even better in his attempts within the restricted area, scoring at a 72.5 percent efficiency compared to Howard’s 70.6 percent (both in the top seven). But, you have to consider something. More of Dwight’s sample includes dunks, while Horford’s is more about creating his own post-up opportunities and finishing them.
Dwight has shot a dreadful 52.3 percent from the free throw line since 2013-14, compared to Horford’s increasingly impressive stroke. Since 2013-14, Horford’s foul line percentage has jumped from 68.2 percent to practically 80 percent (79.8).
Horford will forever provide you with positive mid-range results (since there are zero for Dwight), and he’s also a more gifted passer.
Do we need to remind folks that Dwight has likely never made this type of play in his life?:
Horford is literally one step ahead in the offense, knowing where his teammates will be and delivering passes in the shooting pocket of his guards. It’s something Dwight can do, but Horford’s vision surpasses all big men today.
Those points above are all integral components of being a good basketball player in 2016, especially since the most successful and respected bigs in the league are ones that can score, shoot free throws, switch onto different positions defensively and pass with intelligence.
There’s no question Atlanta will miss those traits from Horford, but I’m slightly excited about Dwight having his last 2-3 effective years in a Hawks uniform. It’s a chance for him to restart with an organization that doesn’t have a ball-dominant shooting guard.
Any final thoughts on what Atlanta’s roster (outside of the starters) looks like heading into next year?
Giacubeno: It’s uncertain if they’ll go out and try to sign a veteran point guard as free agency continues, but the addition of Malcolm Delaney was an absolute steal in my opinion. In the eyes of many, he was the top player in the Euroleague as he averaged 16.3 points, 5.5 assists and 4.3 rebounds while shooting 40.2 percent from three for Lokomotiv Kuban Krasnodar last season. Getting the experienced 27-year-old on a two-year, $1.49 million deal was a bargain that they will see pay off immediately.
Another question heading into next season for the Hawks will be whether or not Tim Hardaway Jr. can assert himself as a productive sixth man. He put up forgetful numbers in his first year with Atlanta since being traded from the New York Knicks. We’ve seen what Hardaway can do during his time in the “Big Apple,” but now he has to transition that into Budenholzer’s scheme, which shouldn’t be difficult to do. He will get his chances next season and just has to make the most of them.
This offseason could’ve gone terribly for the Hawks by losing Teague and Horford with the possibility of coming up empty-handed, but they are proving why they are a well-run organization by addressing their weaknesses with smart business decisions. It’ll be interesting to see whether or not the moves they made can help them jump into the top three teams of the Eastern Conference next season.
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