According to the Irish Times:
Irish Times wrote:
The success rate of exploration activity in Irish waters remains low and the odds against hitting a commercial find stand at 32/1. Fergus Cahill, chairman of the Irish Offshore Operator’s Association says more exploration could result in a higher strike rate.
Does anyone have a breakdown of exactly how this '1 in 32' idea is arrived at and so unquestioningly reproduced by the Irish Times and others?
2Pack says:
2Pack wrote:
The Irish Times has been 'instructed' to take up the slack after the risible efforts by the O Reillys to do so last week.....so it seems to me anyway. None of this 'vidence based' crap anyway but a plain ole ramp. 
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/sect ... -1.1477793
Quote:
It could take up to three or four years before any drilling begins
That was the only true bit of the whole article. The rest is crap, especially the photo of Rabbitte on his way back to offiicial parts like govenment buildings after what looks like a rather enjoyable pissup.
Let us analyse this a bit. The Irish government is content that private oil interests choose a timetable of 3 or 4 years to investigate Irish hydrocarbon potential.
It is a time of national economic emergency.
A hit rate of 1 in 32 means that, at 100 million per well drilled (the upper end of the cost estimates, the average would be significantly lower), it would cost €3.2 billion to drill 32 of them.
The average value of a commercial discovery to date is €6 - €10 billion.
Ergo the lack of exploration in Irish waters and the lack of Irish government exploration in Irish waters is not driven by commercial conditions, which are favourable, but by political considerations, which appear opaque and manipulative.
It is unconscionable that an Irish government worthy of the name would allow private oil and gas interests to dictate that development of Irish hydrocarbon potential be delayed by at least 3 - 4 years in a time of national economic emergency.
Some further considerations: the government has agreed to pay up to €66 billion with a probable final bill of €100 billion in bank debt but will not invest €5 billion in Irish oil and gas with a track record of '1 in 32' for commercial discoveries.
Many sophisticated geological, seismic and drilling analyses point to oil and gas in significant quantities around the Irish coast.
In short, the facts don't add up to anything other than a political manipulation of this resource for reasons that are not apparent to the Irish public.
Statistics: Posted by civic_critic1 — Mon Jul 29, 2013 5:43 am