2014-09-19

Rolling coverage of the results of the Scottish independence referendum as they come in, with reaction and analysis of the vote that could lead to Scotland leaving the United Kingdom

No campaign on course for victory - read latest summary

Salmond not expected to attend his local count

Gove: UK government to pursue reform for England urgently

Voting day as seen by you

Scottish referendum explained for non-Brits

Share your photos and stories via GuardianWitness

4.47am BST

The Glasgow result is coming soon. Yes have reportedly won.

Senior sources say Glasgow has voted Yes by a 'reasonable margin' #indyref #ScotDecides

4.43am BST

Labour is claiming victory.

Just after 4.30am Labour's Scottish leader @JohannLamont claims victory

4.42am BST

Here are some of the results that have just come in. Ive taken the Press Association summaries.

In East Renfrewshire, No won 41,690 votes, compared to 24,287 for Yes.

In Dumfries and Galloway, No won a convincing majority with 70,039 votes against 36,614 for Yes.

4.41am BST

John Harris reports from Falkirk, which voted no by 53.5% to 46.5%. Some yes campaigners filed out before the result was announced, he says, looking very deflated.

4.31am BST

The results are starting to come thick and fast now.

All the figures are going up on our results page almost as soon as they are announced, and you can also see them in the graphic above.

4.30am BST

Roughly were halfway through. Heres a summary

4.29am BST

Can yes still win? James Ball writes:

Weve got just under 20% of the count in now so its still formally at least quite early but things arent looking fantastic for the yes campaign. Falkirk, one of the larger voting districts and one yes could have expected to win, returned a fairly decisive no vote with a seven-point gap.

The yes campaign did get the crucial win needed in Dundee, but frankly if they hadnt won in Dundee, they might not win anywhere.

4.28am BST

Heres Alex Salmonds deputy Nicola Sturgeon celebrating the yes victory in West Dunbartonshire, where the pro-independence campaign won 33,720 votes to the no campaigns 28,776.

4.27am BST

Alberto Nardelli has been doing the maths. He says:

On the current turnout there are about 2.9m votes left. Yes needs 50.76% of the remainder to win or 1,516,122 in total. The overall turnout, with just five places left to declare their turnouts, is 84.8%.

4.21am BST

Dundee East MP Stewart Hosie (SNP) claimed a stonking victory for
the yes campaign in the city, which broke 57.35% for yes to 42.65% for no, Steven Morris reports.

Im delighted. Its what weve been fighting for in Dundee, Hosie said.

Grassroots supporters had predicted winning 65% of the vote. We never did, said Hosie. This is a substantial win. Weve delivered Dundee. Lets see what happens elsewhere.

Chris Law (below, centre) of the Spirit of Independence group said: This is great. It shows there is a huge wish for independence in this city. It is something to build on. We will get stronger.

But Jim McGovern, Labour MP for Dundee West, said the yes campaign would be disappointed by the result in the city.

The separatists expected 65-35. They havent achieved that. They have failed in their aspirations here and they will fail in their aspiration to separate Scotland from the UK.

Reaction from an Edinburgh casino to the first Yes result #indyref https://t.co/2RnLh0BvvF

4.12am BST

Ewen MacAskill has more on Alex Salmonds movements.

Alex Salmond and his wife Moira in private jet heading presumably for Edinburgh.

4.05am BST

Here is more from Michael Gove , the Conservative chief whip, and his interview on the BBC.

Its worth reading his quotes in full because effectively he was announcing proposals for major constitutional reform.

The Conservative party has outlined a position which I think has a lot of support, not just within Conservative circles, which is that if decisions are taken that effect only the people of England, or only the people of England, Wales and Northern, we need more clearly to respect the wishes of folk in those particular countries.

Gordon Brown outlined a timetable that involves publishing a command paper that sets out some principle and some detail, then having draft clauses early in the new year, and then, by the time of a general election, a pretty clear legislative proposal that would be implemented after the United Kingdom general election for Scotland,

I think what we need to do is to have a similar sense of urgency in bringing forward proposals to ensure that at the same time as we would chose to legislate after the general election for Scotland, we would also make sure legislative change safeguarded the interests of people in England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

I dont think we want to go down the route of an English parliament as has been commonly understood ... But the critical thing, I think is that there needs to be change in order to ensure that Westminster works better for the people of England and Wales and Northern Ireland.

4.01am BST

Its not just the UK thats up late tonight, writes Kayla Epstein in New York: the Scottish referendum has captured the worlds attention. A few tore their eyes from the action to say hello:

@GuardianUS watching in Hanoi, Vietnam - Craig Burgess @dialoguehealthy piping as we wait for results pic.twitter.com/NURoAtUauC

@GuardianUS My small team and I keeping track in Pine Bluff, Arkansas! pic.twitter.com/okNG6BQMus

@GuardianUS in New York.Watching Andrew Marr while on the sofa under my duvet--down with flu :( pic.twitter.com/ieWrlzrEKf

@GuardianUS @guardian a German and a Hongkonger watching results come in from portland, Maine! #indyref pic.twitter.com/c1jxczkDiW

@GuardianUS @guardian Watching from Antigua & appreciating the 5 hour time difference or I'd be in my bed! pic.twitter.com/uTkHZZgJL4

My heart is racing, I feel jittery and I certainly can't sleep! I want to. I've got to look after 2 kids tomorrow and I know it'll be hell but I simply can't. I voted no 2 weeks ago by post. I have seen the fervour of the yes campaign and talked in hushed tones with my no friends about why we felt the UK is better together.

Born in Scotland I have spent as much of my adult life in England as i have in Scotland. I have Scottish and English friends. I consider myself a socialist. I am always the first to argue for a fairer, more equal, more redistributive system. I love Scotland. But I also love Britain. I love our diversity, our achievements, our shared culture. I feel that I will lose a vital part of my ideer British.

Sent via GuardianWitness

By ID032227

19 September 2014, 1:29

My Flag kilt

Sent via GuardianWitness

By Got Kilt

19 September 2014, 1:18

@GuardianUS some of us are struggling to stay awake for the results pic.twitter.com/hcSNN4EU5o

The DC pub we're watching BBC coverage in has turned off the audio, and replaced it with a feed from Braveheart and, now, Trainspotting.

3.58am BST

Here is the result for Dundee. Its the first win for yes - and a good one too.

Yes: 53,620 (57.35%)

3.46am BST

George Eaton of the New Statesman tweets this picture of Alex Salmond at Aberdeen airport.

Mournful-looking Salmond at Aberdeen airport. (Via @Daily_Record). pic.twitter.com/bH8elc2FXm

3.43am BST

Here is the Inverclyde result.

No: 27,329 (50.08%)

3.35am BST

STVs Peter Adam Smith reports somewhat chaotic scenes in Glasgow.

Too many people are climbing on these lorries and portacabins. Still no police. https://t.co/BA7zl4ZvdC

3.31am BST

Josh Halliday and his new friends Alan and Frank are having to leave the Green Tavern in Edinburgh; the landlord is a yes supporter and he is calling last orders. But the night is still young ...

They think it's all over ... It's not when you're with Alan and Frank #indyref #casino https://t.co/BDkxSELNy3

3.30am BST

It is not over yet, my colleague Alberto Nardelli reminds us.

Some context - just 2.3% declared in #IndyRef: yes would need just 50.2% of the remaining votes to turn it around. Still early.

3.28am BST

Two thirds of our traffic for this live blog is currently coming from outside the UK. In Melbourne, Bill Gibson, owner of the House of Scotland gift shop, tells Melissa Davey he is keenly following the blog as the results roll in.

Gibson has been living in Australia since 1965 but visits his home country regularly.

He said no matter how the vote goes, it would be a win for Scotland.

3.22am BST

American readers may be interested in this explanation of why Scotland voting for independence would be so historic.

Just in case you dont understand the significance of #ScotlandDecides, the last time Scotland was independent was before America existed.

3.20am BST

Esther Addley, who is at the northernmost count in Lerwick, Shetland, writes:

There was muted applause but quiet delight from the Better Together camp in Lerwicks Clickimin Leisure Centre when the Shetland result, 63.7% No to 36.3% Yes, was announced shortly before 3am.

Pro-independence campaigners had been muted for some time, after it became apparent that the result, always predicted to go against them in Shetland, looked set to be emphatic.

3.17am BST

Guardian leader writer and polling expert Tom Clark is at the count in Edinburgh, and providing us with analysis of the results throughout the night.

He asks what the fallout of a no vote will be - in particular in terms of the pledge the three UK party leaders signed to give more powers to Scotland.

People in Scotland are getting worried - rightly worried, Id say - about whether the pledge will be delivered at all.

3.13am BST

The yes camp has been dominated by the SNP, but it is not just an SNP effort and it includes other partners. One of the most important of those is the Scottish Green party.

Patrick Harvie is the co-convenor of the Scottish Greens. And it sounds as if he is conceding.

Well the result looks disappointing. But losing the energy & motivation of people who've become re-engaged in politics would be even worse.

3.04am BST

Here are the results for Eilean Siar (formerly the Western Isles).

No: 10,544 (53.42%)

3.02am BST

Ewen MacAskill has spent the last few weeks following Alex Salmonds yes campaign and wrote this in-depth piece about the Scottish National party leader on Friday. He sends the following on what tonights referendum results could mean for Salmond:

Scotlands first minister Alex Salmond can claim a win of sorts in spite of the apparently disappointing showing of the independence campaigners in the referendum.

He can claim he has wrested promises of more devolution for the Scottish parliament from the UK party leaders David Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg. When I spoke to him on the campaign trail on Wednesday, he seemed to relish the prospect of Cameron trying to placate his Conservative backbenchers.

3.01am BST

Here is John Harris at the Falkirk count, which should declare soon.

3.00am BST

Michael Gove, the Conservative chief whip, is on the BBC now. He says the constitutional reform for England being proposed by David Cameron will be some version of English votes for English laws.

Last year a commission chaired by Sir William McKay produed a report setting out some ideas for how this could be achieved. The report was shelved, on the grounds that it was too contentious. But, from what Gove is saying, it sounds like it has been taken off the shelf and dusted down, and that Cameron may be looking at it seriously now.

The McKay commission insisted that, to avoid destabilising parliament and creating two classes of MP, their proposals would not allow English MPs a right of veto over laws passed by the government. But it said the overarching principle with England-only bills was that any government should act with the consent of English MPs, unless it had good reason not to.

The status quo clearly cannot be sustained, McKay said. Our proposals retain the right of a UK-wide majority to make the final decisions where they believe UK interests or those of a part of the UK other than England should prevail. We expect that governments will prefer compromise to conflict.

2.51am BST

Eilean Siar (formerly the Western Isles) is about to declare.

Michael Thrasher, the elections expert, has just told Sky News that, on his analysis, this and Dundee should be the best areas for the yes camp.

2.47am BST

Heres the Sheltand result.

No: 9,951 (63.7%)

2.47am BST

We give you analysis of the results so far from two quarters now.

The Guardians James Ball says: Weve only got results for about 1.5% of the Scots who are going to vote tonight, but its not looking good for the yes camp.

Turnout in the areas we thought were going to be great for them, like Glasgow, is a lot lower than the turnouts weve heard so far for areas expected to go for no.

Alan vs Frank on the small matter of #indyref http://t.co/Xm1Byt6IWD

2.39am BST

More news from polling stations from the Press Association.

The Yes Campaign is also expecting to lose in Aberdeenshire - with some very downbeat SNP members at the AECC. There is talk that anything more than 45% for Yes across Scotland would be a good result for them.

In East Lothian, the No camp is confident of a comfortable victory, looking like about a 60-40 split.

2.36am BST

Here is what Michael Gove, the Conservative chief whip, said about the governments desire to push through constitutional change for England quickly. (See here.)

I think there needs to be a similar sense of urgency with both sets of changes. I think people in Scotland expect, following Gordon Browns announcement of a timetable that had been agreed with the three party leaders, that there would be a sense of pace about that process. I think there needs to be a similar sense of pace about making sure that Englands interests, and indeed Wales and Northern Irelands interests, are protected.

2.33am BST

Allan Grogan, the co-convenor of Labour for Independence, believes the expected comfortable win for yes in Dundee should give Ed Miliband pause for thought, reports Steven Morris.

Dundee was once a Labour heartland but the SNP now dominates.

Grogan says his group has approaching 2,000 members, many of whom believe that Labour has lost its way in places like Dundee.

2.31am BST

Brief statement from the police about the fraud investigations:

Police Scotland can confirm that they have received some reports of compromised votes. A Police Scotland spokesman said: Police Scotland takes the safety and security of the Independence Referendum extremely seriously and is working with partner agencies including local authorities and the Chief Counting officer to ensure the integrity of the ballot. Any crime committed will be investigated appropriately.

2.29am BST

Michael Gove, the Conservative chief whip, has just told Sky News that the government accepts the need to give England a new settlement.

He said that it now looked as if the UK was safe.

2.20am BST

It may not surprise you that most of those in the bar in New York with Nicky Woolf are very much pro-independence. Nicky has painstakingly counted every vote, and here is the full run-down:

For an independent Scotland: 66
Against an independent Scotland: 16
Dont know: 12

Origins of people questioned:
Scottish: 37
American: 23
Rest of the UK: 5
Rest of the world: 9
The media: 20

2.19am BST

Lord Reid, the Labour former Scottish secretary, told the BBC there was no precedent in peacetime for bringing three separate parties together for the Better Together campaign.

Asked if it was a mistake not to put Gordon Brown in charge, Reid said it was best to put Alistair Darling in charge because he was acceptable to all parties. Gordon Brown was seen as too closely associated with Labour, he said. AS

2.15am BST

There was huge disappointment among yes campaigners at the count in Glasgow when the turnout in Scotlands biggest city was announced at 364,664 or 75%, reports Libby Brooks.

Thats the worst news Ive had all evening, said one - and it has not been an evening of great news all round.

Yes had been confident that their work registering voters disillusioned with Westminster politics, and engaging with those who had never voted before, would bring in the crucial votes they needed to balance more no-leaning areas of the country.

2.15am BST

More turnout figures.

In North Ayrshire, the turnout was 84.4%, and in the Scottish Borders it was 87.4%.

2.11am BST

From the Press Association.

Yes sources in West Lothian say their reporting indicates 53% in favour of No.

2.07am BST

David Cameron and the Queen are both planning to calm tensions after the heated two-year Scottish referendum campaign when they make statements on Friday after the formal declaration of the result, report Nicholas Watt and Patrick Wintour.

Cameron was expected to use the occasion to show that the coalition is committed to delivering the pledge, outlined by the leaders of the three main UK parties in the final days of the campaign, to deepen Scotlands devolution settlement.

The Queen, who is understood to have watched the referendum debate with close interest, is planning to issue a written statement in the afternoon. It is understood that the Queen, who was praised by both sides during the campaign, believes that it is important to send a message of reconciliation after the heated debates.

2.07am BST

Alberto Nardelli writes on the turnout figures:

Overall turnout remains high on 81%. East Dunbartonshire, East Renfrewshire and Stirling all reported turnout above 90%. Turnout in Glasgow though was only 75%. It is worth keeping in mind that Glasgow has historically low turnout in elections. With parts of the city reporting less than 50% turnout at the general election. Either way, on paper at least, the figure isnt good for Yes.

2.03am BST

Heres the result for Orkney.

No: 10,004 (67.2%)

2.01am BST

Like Nicky Woolf, Guardian US business and technology reporter Dominic Rushe is following the results from a Scottish bar in New York City. But our colleague Kayla Epstein questions the establishments authenticity: Their special drink menu for the evening only contains one whisky, and its a blend.

Yes or No. Both bad options. #indyref pic.twitter.com/moRbXiGyoB

2.01am BST

Huw Edwards says the BBC thinks the national turnout figure will be around 85%.

1.56am BST

The no campaign is now confident of winning the Aberdeenshire area which includes first minister and leader of the independence campaign Alex Salmonds constituency, Ben Quinn reports.

Alex Johnstone, a Conservative MSP, told the Guardian that at this stage it appeared to be a 60 to 40 split in favour of a no vote in the area, where a final result is expected to be announced at around 3am or after.

He said: Ive seen boxes and Ive sampled boxes from all over Aberdeenshire - and while at this stage I havent seen anything from the Banff coast, which is probably where the SNP [yes vote] is strongest - Ive seen boxes which are 50 / 50 and in other cases Ive seen as much as four to one for no.

A win by as much as 60/40 for the NO side in Aberdeenshire - predicted by local MSP Alex Johnstone #indyef pic.twitter.com/X0LZwUDTL9

1.55am BST

And here are some more turnout figures.

90.4% turnout in East Renfrewshire - highest so far in Scotland's #indyref: http://t.co/rCp3vKqSJg

Shetland turnout is confirmed as 84.4%, and South Lanarkshire on 85.3%. #indyref

Three new turnouts have come in. South Ayrshire is announced as 86.1%, East Lothian at 87.6%, East Renfrewshire at 90.4 %. #indyref

1.51am BST

Back to New York, where Nicky Woolf is at Manhattans oldest Scottish bar, St Andrews bar near Times Square. Chris Byiers, originally from Aberdeen, has come up to New York from his home in Philadephia to watch the results come in. His T-shirt says: Ye can stick yer union up yer erse on it - so its fair to say hes probably a yes supporter.

He says he doesnt think it matters all that much if Scotland votes no tonight - it would just be a setback for another 10 or 15 years, he says. Theres an inevitability to independence, he says.

He says that hes found American TV coverage of the debate surrounding Scottish independence very dysfunctional.

1.51am BST

In Glasgow the turnout was 75%, the returning officer has just announced.

1.49am BST

Josh Halliday is at the Green Mantle pub in Edinburgh, where he asks a drinker named Alan about the prospective result.

Its not looking good for yes, unfortunately. Im not happy. I think we need a change.

Alan reveals his innermost #indyref thoughts. More from him later. http://t.co/Ps0s8YUNls

Alan's drinking buddy, Frank, in the Green Tavern on first #indyref result http://t.co/4vWSXHJa5t

1.47am BST

More evidence of no triumphalism.

This is from the Heralds Michael Settle.

No camp cockahoop with Clackmannanshire result. One senior pro-UK source confidently declaring: "I think we've won it."

1.46am BST

Bloombergs Rob Hutton is at the national results centre in Edinburgh. This is what happened when the Clackmannanshire result came in.

The YES camp listened to the Clackmannanshire result in silence. Some had their heads in their hands. #indyref

1.44am BST

Panic over, reports Steven Morris from Dundee.

Were back in the Dundee count. No fire. Now where were we ...

1.43am BST

The fire brigade has arrived at the Dundee count, reports Steven Morris.

The firefighters are looking relaxed. Dont think we have to worry about all the voting papers burning and having to start again.

1.37am BST

The Scotsmans Kenny Farquarson is rather more brutal in his verdict on Clackmannanshire.

Ooft. Clackmannanshire was one of the Yes campaign's bankers. Devastating. Bad omen for Yes. #indyref #indyts

Clackmannanshire - UK HOLD (that's how this works, right?)

1.33am BST

John Curtice, the elections expert, on the BBC says the yes said will be rather disappointed by the result in Clackmannanshire. But it will not make much difference to the overall result, he says.

1.32am BST

Oh dear. Fire alarm goes off at the Dundee count, reports Steven Morris. Everybody out.

1.32am BST

Heres the result for Clackmannanshire.

No: 19,036 (53.8%)

1.25am BST

Heres the Shetland turnout.

Shetland announces 84.4% turnout #ScotDecides

1.24am BST

From political correspondent Rowena Mason in London backing up what were hearing elsewhere about Aberdeenshire:

A senior Labour source told the Guardian it looks like the yes campaign will lose in Salmonds backyard of Aberdeenshire.

1.23am BST

This is from the Specators James Forsyth.

An experienced number cruncher tells me that No will win by more than 8 points. Looking like Better Together's confidence was justified

1.20am BST

Were due to get the result from Clackmannanshire soon. This was seen as one of the best areas for yes. (It gets a 10 out of 10 on the Credit Suisse rating - see here.)

This is from STVs Peter Smith.

No campaigners are smiling and hugging in Clackmannanshire. Yes campaigners not reacting at all. #ScotDecides #indyref

1.17am BST

Guardian leader writer and polling expert Tom Clark is at the count in Edinburgh, and hes going to be providing us with analysis of the results throughout the night.

He says something pretty historic is happening in terms of the turnouts recorded so far.

We havent had turnout of even 70% since 1997 in a UK general election; we havent had turnout of 80% since the 1950s.

1.16am BST

According to the BBCs Ross Hawkins, Aberdeenshire is going no.

No sources anticipating a No win in Aberdeenshire, where Salmond has his seat

1.10am BST

This is from the BBCs Nick Robinson.

Can't help noticing that NO campaigners smiling whilst YES campaigners refusing to speculate before votes counted

1.06am BST

Counters in Glasgow are looking through ballot papers looking for 10 possible cases of electoral fraud, Libby Brooks reports.

Ten ballot papers are suspected of having been cast through impersonation - where an individual presents themselves at the polling station only to find that their name has already been crossed off the register and that someone appears to have voted in their place.

Count officials say that they know which ballot boxes these papers came from, and counters are now going through to match the serial numbers of the offending papers.

1.05am BST

Alberto Nardelli, data editor, writes about the turnout figures so far:

The first official numbers of the evening - turnout in Orkney (84%), Inverclyde (87%), Renfrewshire (87%) and Clackmannanshire (89%) - alongside postal voting in excess of 90% in many parts of Scotland, are a very very early indication that the polls were right about turnout. Most polls were anticipating turnout well in excess of 80%, with Ipsos MORI even showing the figure above 90%. Turnout so far is on about 87%.

The Dundee turnout figures of 78.8% are looking quite interesting as we grab on to any early signals there are still no results in as to how the result might look.

A 78.8% turnout would in any normal election be a huge figure, but when compared to other regions where weve heard the counts, its quite low many areas so far look like theyll have turnout in the high 80s.

1.04am BST

Sixteen year olds voting for the first time, Catalans in Scotland to offer their solidarity, and an undecided dog ... here is a gallery of your take on referendum day. Add your images here.

1.01am BST

Whoever wins tonight, Scotland has clearly been divided by this referendum, and you can see that in the fact that while in Aberdeen the leader of the independence campaign Alex Salmond is not expected to show up at his local count, in pro-yes Dundee a number of pro-union Liberal Democrats appear not to have made it to the count. PO

1.01am BST

Ben Quinn, who is at the Aberdeenshire count and earlier broke the story that Alex Salmond, Scotlands first minister, is not attending his local count, has been speaking to the Lib Dem MP Malcolm Bruce. The fact that Salmond is not attending tells you everything you need to know, Bruce said. He went on:

Its all about Alex Salmond. Alex Salmond will not come anywhere if he has not got a triumphant accolade around him and something to crow about. He will just crawl away quietly, as he has done in the past when things dont work out.

I said to my campaign manager as soon as we started seeing the first sample results: Salmond wont come here.

We only have had the early samples but they were pretty good. I never understood this argument that there was a movement from no to yes. We had been saying for a number of weeks that we had been getting clear, strong consistent no.

1.00am BST

Our political correspondent Rowena Mason writes:

One of the first large areas to declare will be North Lanarkshire, where reports are suggesting the yes campaign might have won by a small margin. Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Conservative leader, told the BBC the no camp might have just lost out in the fourth biggest local authority, where there is strong SNP support. Smaller authorities Clackmannanshire, Shetland and Moray are all battling to be the first to declare.

12.56am BST

My colleague Ewen MacAskill is at Ingliston in Edinburgh, where the overall national result will be announced. He has sent us this.

MPs and party officials are beginning to drift into the count at Ingliston, Edinburgh. They are too coy to go public at this stage, saying it is too early in the night, but there is a definite bounce to the Better Together no camp. They cited different reasons: from the YouGov poll to Salmond opting to spend the night at his home in Strichen.

The MP for North-East Fife, Sir Menzies Campbell, said: Naturally the Better Together campaign has been encouraged by the YouGov poll.

12.55am BST

Alistair Carmichael, the Lib Dem Scottish secretary, says that Alex Salmond should put his obsession with independence aside if the no side win. He spoke to my colleague Severin Carrell.

Assuming no does win, the question Alex Salmond has to answer is will you now put your independence obsession to one side, and work for the first time in your political life with other parties, with business, the trade unions and churches, and be part of the consensus, building instead of dividing Scottish politics?

12.51am BST

David Cameron is reported planning a statement on constitutional reform for England this morning. (See here). On Newsnight two MPs representing constituencies in England offered him ideas.

Liam Fox, the Conservative former defence secretary, and a Scot, said he favoured stopping Scottish MPs from voting on English-only bills.

Im not in favour of a separate English parliament, because I think with parish councils, town councils, district councils, county councils, Westminster, the last thing we require is another level of government. But I do think effectively what we must ensure is that Scottish MPs, who cannot vote on issues like health and education in Scotland, should not be entitled to vote on health and education in constituencies like mine in North Somerset. It is profoundly undemocratic and unfair, that needs to be dealt with.

At first youve got to have a constitutional convention in England. Secondly, we are going to have change in Westminster, its clear that the more powers that go to the Scottish Parliament, the less you can have Scottish MPs voting on the same issues for England, thats got to change in one way or another. Thirdly, though, England is much too centralised. So this isnt just about reducing the influence of Scottish MPs in Westminster, its about getting English decisions out of Westminster.

12.43am BST

In Glasgow there have been allegations of electoral fraud, Sky News reports. There were claims that, in 10 cases, people turned up to vote and found someone had already voted under that name. The police have been called in and some ballot papers are being removed from ballot boxes so they can be investigated.

12.41am BST

A reminder of the key constituencies to watch for tonight, courtesy of our Scotland correspondent Severin Carrell and Libby Brooks:

12.33am BST

This is from Skys Adam Boulton.

If NO Jim Wallace says @AlexSalmond "will have serious thinking to do... will be in a very difficult position."

12.29am BST

Nicky Woolf has more from New Yorks oldest Scottish bar, St Andrews bar near Times Square.

George Alexander Campbell, originally from Glasgow, moved to New York to marry his late wife, Priscilla, whom he met when she was in Scotland on a trip. Born in Boston and brought up in New York, she was a descendant of the ancient Tribe of Mar and was pipe-major for the New York Scottish Pipes and Drums.

She passed away a few years ago, Campbell tells me, but in her honour he is wearing the Mar tartan and full ceremonial regalia tonight. Hes hoping for a win for the No camp. Theres eternal reasons why not. My wife, she always said absolutely not. Her intuition said no. Ill stay with that.

12.22am BST

Our political sketchwriter John Crace is at the Edinburgh count:

Waiting. Waiting. Politicians, activists, officials and journalists: everyone was waiting. The most intense, engaged election campaign ever held in the UK had just ended and no one was too sure how to fill the final hours of limbo before the result was announced. The main displacement activity was for everyone to ask everyone else if they knew what the hell was likely to happen. The honorary consul for Norway looked particularly lost. Do you know when any announcement is likely to be made? he asked. He didnt look particularly happy to discover he might have to hang around till the early morning to hear the result. Are you sure? Yes. Mmm. Maybe I will come back.

Things began to warm up a bit around 10.30 as the broadcasters shuffled the talking heads between themselves. Dennis Canavan, the New Labour refusenik turned independent, was in particular demand. Around the tables for Edinburgh West where the postal votes were being counted, a Yes campaigner was looking gloomy. Its 77-33 for the Nos so far, he said. Its about what we expected here, though. It didnt look that way.

12.17am BST

James Cook of the BBC reports signs that the pro-independence side has cheered up a bit.

Yes camp "much happier now than half an hour ago". Senior source says Glasgow "looking good for us". #indyref #Scotland

No campaigners beginning to look gloomy on the counting floor. A senior figure in the no campaign has admitted its not looking pretty for them here.

12.16am BST

The Sun says David Cameron, the UK prime minister, could make a statement as early as 7am today responding to the result.

David Cameron is to lay out dramatic new plans for how Britain is governed - in a live TV address as early as 7am: http://t.co/teLNGIxLzE

12.10am BST

Orkney has announced its turnout figure. Its 83.7%. AS

12.09am BST

There are some reports of insiders in the anti-independence Better Together camp speculating on a win as high as 57%.

But Severin Carrell has been talking to his sources in Edinburgh, who are much more circumspect:

A senior source in Better Together refused to speculate on the likely result, because so many voters had taken part. The turnout is very, very high. Were feeling good, were feeling confident but I wouldnt be calling it just now.

But he said the postal vote returns already the highest on record with the number of postal votes requested standing at nearly 790,000, [789,512] were solid for us, across the country. In some places, postal vote returns were over 90%.

12.03am BST

Heres another graph with useful data for anyone wanting to put todays turnout figures in perspective.

Highest-ever turnout in a Scottish national poll: 81.2% in the 1951 general election http://t.co/0ofOQpyNnr #indyref pic.twitter.com/LytT4ukJr1

12.00am BST

This is from Steven Hope, who runs the Ipsos MORI office in Edinburgh.

Talk of North Lanarkshire result by 1245. Will be key result. I have estimated it as a slim Yes win with 52% of the vote. #indyref

11.58pm BST

Earlier this week my colleagues Alberto Nardelli and George Arnett posted details on the Guardian Datablog of the results of all the independence referendums held since 1856. Normally the yes side wins.

11.45pm BST

Ben Quinn writes from Aberdeenshire, in Alex Salmonds backyard, where the Scottish first minister and leader of the yes campaign had been expected at the local count but is now not attending:

An early indication that the yes campaign is braced for defeat?

Scotlands first minister, Alex Salmond, will be residing overnight at his home in the north east of Aberdeenshire, rather than coming to one of the referendum counts nearby.

11.45pm BST

Scotland and England were united in 1707 with the Acts of Union. A Conservative MP, Michael Fabricant, says it is time for a new Act of Union to give the UK a new constitutional settlement.

Now is the time for a new Act of Union. A new deal for the 4 nations (3 if Yes) of the United Kingdom.

11.42pm BST

Esther Addley, who earlier today visited Scotlands most northerly polling station on the island of Unst, is now a little further south in Lerwick, Shetland.

There is a quiet bustle inside Clickimin Leisure centre in Lerwick, where counting agents are flicking through small piles of ballot papers behind a velvet rope, and observers from both sides of the campaign mingle quietly.

The yes campaign is more visible here, with around 10 of its supporters wearing rosettes or blue yes T-shirts, while those on the Better Together side are soberly dressed in suits and small lapel badges.

Danus Skene, a retired teacher who once stood as a Labour parliamentary candidate and is sporting a large blue and white rosette, said the YouGov poll results putting no on 54% had had a dampening effect on the morale of the yes team, which is what you are seeing here, gesturing at his own supporters.

But we just dont know. There are stories even here of people who had a firm conviction until yesterday but changed their minds.

Geordie Jacobson, one of the leading local no campaigners, said he was also feeling cautious about the YouGov result. I just hope they are right. Im not feeling confident based on an opinion poll, weve got to wait until we see a few results first.

He was feeling apprehensive about the evening ahead, he said. Im a fairly pragmatic fellow, and whatever will be will be. But Ive felt in recent days that it was going our way, certainly in Shetland and I hope nationally as well.

11.33pm BST

The postal vote turnout in Edinburgh is 89.6%, Sky reports.

11.30pm BST

Generally it has been assumed that a high turnout would benefit the yes camp. That was because yes support is disproportionately higher among lower social classes, and these are the people who in normal elections are less likely to turn out.

But the Scotsmans Kenny Farquharson thinks the true picture could be more complicated. AS

Turnout is turning out to be an #indyref issue after all. 80+ would have favoured Yes. But 90+ could favour No. #indyts

11.25pm BST

All we really have to go on so far is the YouGov exit poll (see earlier), which showed 54% for no, 46% for yes.

Severin Carrell has been talking about the poll to no campaigner and Labour MP Jim Murphy, who said he believed the Labour vote had remained solid, despite the polls before voting began repeatedly saying large numbers of Labour voters were switching to yes.

Thats great. Ive spent my whole day from when the polls opened to polls closing in Barrhead, a traditionally Labour town in my constituency and what I feel is, I know enough people in that town and if there was a substantial enough problem with Labour voters, I wouldve known.

To the extent there was any momentum today, it was in our direction. There was a quiet edging of public opinion towards us.

The polls have been close all the way through. The poll that counts is the one thats taken place today. People who havent voted before have today and they have voted Yes. Were confident of a good result.

Im not sure how scientific it is to be polling on the day, when many wont have cast their votes and made their final decision until later. I still believe there is all to play for, and this is still within the parameters of other recent polls. Were here now at the count and this is the only poll that matters.

What does it mean? Well, it means theres certainly not been any last-minute swing to the yes side, as some people on the yes side were hoping but I dont think it proves absolutely yet that no has won, and thats because the sample is the same one, the same base sample, that theyve been using in all their opinion polls so far, so if that were to be biased ... then I guess that bias would still be in this YouGov poll.

11.24pm BST

Ewen MacAskill, who is at the Edinburgh count in Ingliston, sends this on the mood in the Labour camp:

Lots of people are claiming to know the outcome of the Scottish referendum, based on all sorts of things, including the experiences of party members monitoring polling stations today or the YouGov poll.

But I just spoke to a senior Scottish Labour source who said no-one knows. I dont know, he said, adding that it will not be possible to make any serious assessment until some actual votes start to come in from Labour areas such as North Lanarkshire and Ayrshire in the early hours of the morning.

11.24pm BST

Douglas Alexander, the shadow foreign secretary and a key figure in the anti-independence Better Together campaign, has just told the BBC that at this stage politicians should have humility (because they dont know the result but that he thought there were huge numbers voting no.

(Actually, he wasnt really exuding humility. He looked like someone fairly confident of victory.)

Honestly, this happened to me in Glasgow yesterday. A taxi driver said, If I stop the meter, will you explain the Barnett formula to me.

In what other election could that possibly ever happen. Jim Murphy, my colleague, tell the story of being at a hen night in Glasgow recently - he was in a restaurant with his wife. In between particular shows, they were discussing the Barnett formula and the referendum. Ive never experienced politics like this. People normally go to restaurants during an election contest to get away from politics.

11.13pm BST

Peter Kellner has moved the pound. Or, at least thats what my colleague Graeme Wearden thinks. Hes sent me this.

Sterling hit a new two-week high against the US dollar in the global foreign exchange markets, after tonights YouGov polling data was released.

The pound jumped half a cent, from $1.640 to $1.645, before dropping back to $1.642. It had already hit a two-year high against the euro earlier today, as traders anticipated that Scotland would not break away from the United Kingdom.

11.11pm BST

This is from the BBCs Peter Hunt.

Palace officials say the Queen has been following the independence referendum closely. #indyref

11.09pm BST

Only a handful of people showed up for a candlelit vigil in favour of the union organised by unlikely Conservative MP Rory Stewart at the cairn of auld acquaintance, a rather lovely dry stone wall-cum pile of stones which he and volunteers have been building since late July in a show of cross-border love and comradeship, reports Helen Pidd.

Asked if he had succeeded in persuading people that England cared about Scotland and being part of the United Kingdom, the MP for Penrith and the Borders just south of Scotland said bluntly: No. I think theres a lot of work to do. In an a way, I think the argument for Britain and Britishness is something we should have been fighting for the last 30 years. And if we are lucky enough to make it through a no vote now, we are going to have to spend decades rebuilding confidence in Britain. Rebuilding a sense that we are a country together, that we have common values, a common purpose, we have a common direction.

People have come from all around to paint a stone and add it to the cairn more than 100,000 have made it onto the heap - but Stewart admitted he had hoped it would be more like a million. He said it was sad that the arguments which seemed to chime most with no voters were the economic ones rather than the sense that, after more than 300 years, Scotland and the rest of the UK belong together.

11.07pm BST

Here are some more lines from Twitter about turnout.

From Michael Settle, the Heralds political editor.

Polls now closed with rumours some areas have turnouts over 90%. One normally well-informed source suggested a few could have 100%. Wow!

Counting underway in East Dunbartonshire. Expecting turnout of 80%+ #indyref #scotdecides pic.twitter.com/XPztL6A33U

Airdrie 84%, Coatbridge 83% and Bellshill 79% voter turnout - highest in history #ScotlandIndependence #ScotDecides

Hearing turnout in Dundee is 90%. Remarkable! #indyref

Yes source: "We're going to do it. It was our day." No source: 97% turnout in affluent areas. #indyref

Turnout in Dundee around 90%, East Lothian 79.7% #indyref

Indications from the central count at Ingliston are that the turnout has been "astonishingly high". #indyref http://t.co/BOvH0Kf4Rb

11.07pm BST

James Ball writes from Guardians headquarters in London:

As we settle into

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