Rolling coverage of the ITV leaders’ debate, with David Cameron, Ed Miliband, Nick Clegg, Nigel Farage, Natalie Bennett, Nicola Sturgeon and Leanne Wood, with reaction and analysis, and the poll results as they come in
Snap poll suggests 25% thought Miliband won
Cameron on 24%, Farage on 19%, Sturgeon 17%, Clegg 9%
On forced choice between Cameron and Miliband vote split 50/50
Leaders quizzed on the economy, NHS, immigration and the future of Britain
10.36pm BST
If you take an average of all three polls out so far, Nicola Sturgeon has won.
Here are the figures.
10.34pm BST
Polly Toynbee’s verdict:
A debate cunningly devised as a car crash by team Cameron turned out to be usefully revealing of them all. And not to Cameron’s advantage. With a battery against him, stripped of advantage, he looked unsettled by this level playing field. Was using the tragedy of his son’s short life a good defence of the NHS, or do people wince? Is attacking the Welsh on the NHS good politics? Faced with voices from Scotland and Wales, does he rule for them or just for his home countries?
Nick Clegg’s pose as honest broker was a grating reprise of last time - and it felt bust. Against bookies’ odds, Farage was the heavy loser, badly misjudging this forum as his poison on HIV and foreigners put him back in the BNP coffin: he may have lost respectable support last night.
10.33pm BST
Jonathan Freedland’s verdict:
Ed Miliband yearned for a TV debate that would be his audition for the role of prime minister. As it turned out, sharing the stage with six others, he struggled even to be leader of the opposition.
It’s not that he did badly. His answers were fluent and when he had the chance to square up directly against David Cameron he was forceful. He said the PM had promised to protect the NHS and had let voters down: “They believed you, they believed you,” he said.
10.32pm BST
Megan Carpentier, opinion editor of Guardian US, offers this verdict from America:
Today’s leader’s debate felt like a preview of what Americans could expect in 2016: some cross-talk and interrupting, a lone anti-war heckler who made it through the screening process, the inevitable calls to tax the rich or simply cut spending, immigrants who are/are not taking jobs and sucking up/not sucking up government services and lots of discussion about the cost of health care.
Nigel Farage is clearly a bad man who bears an uncanny resemblance to a frog; we’ll probably get one of those, too, for the Republican primary, and he’ll declare that the rise of the “other” means the Real Americans need his party’s protection. It was striking how granular the leaders got on some issues (like parking fees for patrons of NHS hospitals, a drum Farage beat but which Sturgeon took up as well); though there are often one-issue candidates who are interested in the nitty-gritty details here, usually even the long shots go into debates with the intention of appearing presidential (and above such tiny details).
10.28pm BST
Ed Miliband edged fractionally ahead of the crowded field of ITV’s 7-way leaders’ election debate, according to an instant Guardian/ICM poll.
10.27pm BST
And this is the ComRes chart showing the results when people were asked which leader came across as ...
10.25pm BST
Frances Perraudin caught up with the heckler outside the debate:
Victoria Prosser, ladies and gents https://t.co/VpSHP8zkkW
10.25pm BST
These are the figures from ComRes when they asked people if they were more likely to vote for a particular party as a result of the debate.
10.23pm BST
Google has been sharing with us the most googled questions through the debate. They were:
10.22pm BST
Here is some more from the ComRes poll for ITV.
Most capable of leading the UK #leadersdebate @ComResPolls: Cameron 40%, Miliband 28%, Farage 10%, Clegg 4%, Sturgeon 8%, Bennett & Wood 1%
Best ideas for Britain's future #leadersdebate @ComResPolls: Cameron 27%,Miliband 24%, Farage 19%, Sturgeon 10%,Clegg 7%,Bennett 6%, Wood 1%
Most honest leader?#leadesdebate #itvnews @ComResPolls: Farage 26%,Miliband 16%, Sturgeon 14%, Cameron 13%, Clegg 10%,Bennett 8% and Wood 5%
More likely to vote for as a result of debate @ITVNews #leadersdebate Lab 30% Con 29% UKIP 22% Lib Dem 11% Greens 9% SNP 6% Plaid Cymru 1%
10.18pm BST
And here are the results from the YouGov poll.
While the ICM and ComRes polls were broadly similar, YouGov is quite different, giving Sturgeon a clear lead.
Debate Result: Sturgeon wins Cameron: 18% Miliband: 15% Clegg: 10% Farage: 20% Bennett: 5% Sturgeon: 28% Wood: 4% 1117 GB adults
10.16pm BST
Here are the results from the ComRes poll.
Full @ITVNews snap verdict for #leadersdebate PERFORMED BEST 21% Cam 21% Mili 9% Clegg 21% Farage 5% Bennett 20% Sturgeon 2% Wood
10.11pm BST
And here are the full results.
Miliband wins by a whisker. Although, as I posted earlier (see 10.08pm), when respondents were asked to choose between Cameron and Miliband, it was a dead heat.
10.08pm BST
These are the results of our ICM poll when people were asked to choose simply between Cameron and Milband as winners of the debate.
Cameron: 50%
10.07pm BST
The Guardian is working with pollsters BritainThinks to track the mood of the nation through the general election campaign via focus groups in five key battlegrounds. There are 60 voters who all have apps via which they can give us live feedback on the election campaign. Some are watching the debate tonight and this is a round-up of what they were saying at the end of debate:
10.05pm BST
10.05pm BST
If you stripped out all the pre-scripted statements, and focused on the exchanges, you could create a rather lively 30-minute programme out of that. But, in the end, it was a struggle, with more than a dash of public service broadcasting at it most colourless. The net effect, I think, is that no one really made much of a breakthrough.
9.57pm BST
Cameron says he has been prime minister for five years. He has had one priority: turning the economy round. He wants to continue with that. And he wants a seven-day NHS. This is an amazing country. Stick with the plan, and the team, that is working.
9.56pm BST
Farage says he warned they were all the same. What you have seen is the politically correct political class. Most of them have never had a real job in their lives. He says Ukip stands for plain-spoken patriotism.
9.55pm BST
Bennett says people should vote for what they believe in. You do not have to vote for the lesser of two evils. Caroline Lucas has made a huge impact. We need more MPs like her. Wherever you are, if you are thinking of voting Green, do it.
9.54pm BST
Wood says she hopes the debate does not fill you with despair. Austerity is a choice. But we can have a future where everyone has good public services. For a stronger Wales, give your vote to Plaid Cyrmu. For Wales to be strong, Plaid Cymru must be strong. And she finishes with thank you in Welsh.
9.53pm BST
Miliband says there is a fundamental choice: do we carry on, or do we build an economy that works for everyone. We will make sure everyone plays by the rules. He believes that when working people succeed, Britain succeeds.
9.52pm BST
Clegg thanks people for sitting throught his marathon. When you vote, make sure you don’t vote for a lurch to the left or the right. We need a government that is stable and fair. We want a stronger economy and a fairer society.
9.51pm BST
Sturgeon says the choice has been clear. You can vote for the same parties, and the same politics. Or you can vote for something better and more progressive. None of us can afford more austerity, or nuclear weapons. Ordinary people will pay the price. The SNP offers an alternative. It will be a voice for change in the rest of the UK, too.
9.50pm BST
Farage says the other leaders are not positive. He is positive about what Britain can do. It should be in alliance with the 2.2 billion people in the Commonwealth.
Clegg says we can only instil optimism if we release the young from the obligation of debt.
9.50pm BST
This is the woman who heckled Cameron:
Cameron heckled by audience member that there are homeless people on the streets. "I have to speak out," she says. pic.twitter.com/maDwU1Phdg
9.46pm BST
Etchingham reminds the leaders of part of the question. What will you do to make people feel more positive about the future?
Cameron says we should think of the positive things Britain does. He talks about the armed services.
9.44pm BST
Miliband says Labour is the only party with a plan to help tenants in the private sector. It would stop letting agents charging rip-off fees.
9.44pm BST
9.43pm BST
Farage turns to housing. This is about demand and supply. We need to build a home every seven minutes to provide enough homes for immigrants, he says.
We should change planning rules so more homes can be built on brownfield sites, he says.
9.41pm BST
Wood says, in a hung parliament, Plaid will do all it can to end austerity and win parity with Scotland. Then there could be free tuition fees in Wales.
Sturgeon says this shows why we need to end the old boys’ system in Westminster. Clegg broke his promise on tuition fees. Tony Blair opposed them, and then introduced them. Then he said he would not put them up, but did exactly that. That is why SNP MPs are needed at Westminster.
9.38pm BST
A young person in the audience asked what the leaders would do for young people.
9.34pm BST
These are the most searched for questions on Google through the debate in order of popularity:
9.32pm BST
This round sounded a bit like a re-run of the Clegg/Farage Euro debates last year, and Farage was predictably triumphant - but perhaps overly so. Miliband came out with one of his best soundbites of the evening, when he picked up on Cameron saying that work paid, and said it did not.
9.26pm BST
Miliband says we import IT specialists. But apprenticeships in IT are falling. We should make firms that take foreigner workers take on apprentices too.
Clegg says the government has expanded apprenticeships.
9.25pm BST
Wood says she never thought she would agree with Farage on one thing. But he is right to say that we cannot control immigration if we are in the EU.
But we expect British people to be offered free movement from other EU countries.
9.23pm BST
Sturgeon asks Cameron and Miliband to give a commitment that, if there is an in/out referendum, Scotland won’t be taken out of the EU if it does not vote for it.
Miliband says he does not want a referendum. There are better priorities for the UK, he says.
9.21pm BST
Miliband says Cameron said earlier that work pays in this country. But it does not.
Addressing “Ed Miliband”, Cameron says the government has created jobs. With Labour, never mind zero hours, you would have zero jobs.
9.19pm BST
Bennett says this is also a debate about human lives. Some 19,000 Britons cannot live in the UK with their relatives because of the rules applying to spousal earnings.
Farage says, while we are in the EU, we cannot control immigration.
9.18pm BST
Most searched for party leaders on Google at half time:
9.17pm BST
“There you go again,” said Ed. Just like Reagan.
"There you go again." Ed Miliband sounding like Ronald Reagan in 1980. http://t.co/WkmkgbYceZ #leadersdebate https://t.co/qlLQoEF2Nj
9.16pm BST
Sturgeon says diversity is a great strength. She can see that looking at the audience.
The Tories abolished the post-study work visa. That is harming universities. It is also depriving us of the gain from students we have trained.
9.13pm BST
Cameron says he does not accept, as Farage argues, that you cannot do anything about immigration in the EU. He wants a renegotiation.
9.09pm BST
Farage will be aware that he’s having a bit of a shitter, if you’ll forgive the lapse into politicalese, so it’ll be interesting to see which of his most winsome lines he’ll start trying to pull out of the bag in the second half. If I were in his corner I’d have insisted he was given an emergency vitamin injection, even if they had to get some foreign nurse to administer it. He looks like he could use it.
9.08pm BST
Quick roundup from Twitter:
On the eyes:
9.07pm BST
It’s becoming ever clearer that this format is a mess. Downing Street have got their way; this might not exactly be a bore-athon, but there are so many participants that it is hard for anyone really to break through. Miliband tried, though, by trying to berate Cameron as directly as he could. Mostly he was effective - and he needs to be; if Labour can’t win on the NHS, they are stuffed - although he was defensive on Mid-Staffs.
9.00pm BST
On Twitter people tell me they think the audience were applauding Wood, not Farage. (See 8.52pm.)
@AndrewSparrow I'm 99% sure that applause was for Wood, Andrew.
8.58pm BST
Bennett says Miliband is right about social care. People need help. The Greens are calling for free social care for the over-65s.
Cameron says he wants a 7-day NHS, with GPs open often. In Manchester there is less pressure on hospitals because that is happening.
8.57pm BST
The Guardian’s chief political correspondent Nicholas Watt has the very difficult job of filing a story from this debate for our print deadline at 9pm. This is what you’ll read in the first editions of the Guardian tomorrow morning:
8.57pm BST
Clegg says the NHS needs money and more focus on mental health.
Miliband says people should use their votes as a weapon to rescue the NHS.
8.55pm BST
Sturgeon says her message to Miliband is that the NHS is too precious to allow the private sector a role.
She says her message to people in England and Wales is that the SNP will work to keep the NHS out of private hands.
8.55pm BST
The Guardian is working with pollsters BritainThinks to track the mood of the nation through the general election campaign via focus groups in five key battlegrounds. There are 60 voters who all have apps via which they can give us live feedback on the election campaign. Some are watching the debate tonight and this is what they are saying halfway through the debate:
8.52pm BST
Farage says 60% of people diagnosed HIV positive in the UK are foreign nationals. The drugs cost up to £25,000 a year. The NHS should be there for British people.
Wood says this kind of scaremongering is dangerous.
8.50pm BST
Bennett says we are racing towards the American system.
If we are to take pressure off the NHS, we need healthier society.
8.49pm BST
Wood says the private sector has no role in the NHS.
Miliband says his two sons were born in a PFI hospital. There is a role for the private sector in health.
8.47pm BST
Clegg says the simple question is, who will put an extra £8bn into the NHS. In Scotland they have reduced spending on the NHS.
“Rubbish”, says Sturgeon.
8.45pm BST
The opening statements are over, and the NHS section has now been opened up.
Farage says he wants to know what people think about health tourism.
8.42pm BST
Q: How will you keep free access to the NHS?
8.42pm BST
Everyone had an American. They were regarded reverentially as mystic sages who could divine the future of a debate.
8.39pm BST
Megan Carpentier, opinion editor of Guardian US, writes:
Ed Miliband’s comment “There you go again” was lifted from the (only) 1980 presidential debate between then-president Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan; Reagan used to to dismiss Carter’s thoughtful calls for a national health insurance program (which, in 2015, Americans still don’t have).
It’s a little funny to hear it out of a Labour party candidate’s mouth, in response to the Conservative prime minister’s insistence that he’s just dealing with the economic problems he inherited from the Labour party; of course, in America, President Barack Obama responded to the ongoing economic problems in America during the 2012 election by blaming it on the problems he inherited from his Republican predecessor.
8.39pm BST
Opening statements and economy question - Snap verdict: The two leading nationalists are winning - Nigel Farage and Nicola Sturgeon. It was surprising quite how dull the format was for the first 14 minutes, but once it opened up, Farage was combative, and had the most distinct policy offers. He was also withering about debt. Sturgeon is calm and impressive, and is working hard to appeal to English, Labourish viewers. Miliband is doing well, but has not cut through. And Cameron is looking a tad beleaguered, principally because he is under the biggest obligation to defend a record.
8.34pm BST
You were told austerity and inequality, big banks and tuition fees were inevitable. They were not. You all deserve better. Let’s put principles and values first. The Green party is determined to deliver a fair economy.
[We’re against] fear of immigrants and demonising people on benefits ... Vote for change, vote Green.
There are six other party leaders. They may all look different but they are very much the same. All six support the EU and as a consequence all of them support open door immigration.
We believe this country should be a self-governing nation. We believe we are good enough to do that.
It’s pretty obvious no one is going to win this election outright, so you are going to choose who works with each other ... The country’s in a lot better shape than it was five years ago ... I’ve made mistakes and I’ve learned from them... [We have] the grit and the resilience to finish the job of balancing the books and doing so fairly.
This a chance to change the Westminster system so it serves you better. I know it’s not just people in Scotland who feel let down by Westminster politics. My message to the people of England, Wales and Scotland is one of friendship. I won’t pretend I don’t want independence. I do but as long as Scotland remains part of the Westminster system.
Five years ago this country was on the brink. But for the last five years we’ve been working with the British people through a long term economic plan and that plan is working.
The plan is working because last year we had the fastest growing economy You’re going to hear a lot of people claiming a lot of things but these are the same people ... who were wrong then and they’re wrong now. The choice is debt taxes borrowing and spending that got us in this mess in the first place.
I’m from the Rhondda and I understand all too well the difficulties faced by our communities in recent years. Plaid Cymru offers an alternative. Decent hope for our young people and thriving successful communities. We can win for Wales but we can only do that with your support.
Here’s what I think. Britain succeeds when working people succeed. But for five years wages haven’t kept up with bills, the NHS has been going backwards and young people fear they will have a worse life than their parents.
It doesn’t have to be this way. Britain can do so much better than it’s done over the last five years.
8.33pm BST
Sturgeon asks where the cut will come from.
Cameron says the government has cut £21bn from welfare already.
8.32pm BST
Sturgeon says Labour voted for austerity.
Miliband says that is not what the vote on the charter for budget responsibility was about.
8.29pm BST
Wood says Ed’s party represents many areas of Wales. Does he accept that Labour has failed them. Parts of Wales are some of the poorest areas of the EU.
Miliband says he does not accept that. But he then turns to Cameron, and attacks the Tories’ record, on issues like the bedroom tax.
8.28pm BST
8.26pm BST
Cameron says Labour left a note saying, “Sorry, we’ve run out of money”. Under the government’s plans, the top 20% have paid more than the other 80%.
8.23pm BST
Farage says half the panel are saying they have been prudent, and half are saying cuts have gone too far.
But national debt has doubled. At some point we have got to get real. We have a massive debt repayment problem. Let’s cut aid.
8.20pm BST
Finally, the leaders have stopped making statements, and are debating with each other.
Miliband says Cameron has not acted on tax avoidance, or hedge funds. He says Cameron has not done this.
8.18pm BST
The Guardian is working with pollsters BritainThinks to track the mood of the nation through the general election campaign via focus groups in five key battlegrounds. There are 60 voters who all have apps via which they can give us live feedback on the election campaign. Some are watching the debate tonight and these are their initial verdicts on their opening statements:
8.17pm BST
Bennett says we have been looking at this the wrong way. A children’s centre may have closed. That was an essential service. Now it has gone, and the worker is on benefits. Everyone is poorer. The rich should pay their share.
Sturgeon says economic policy should be about improving people’s lives. She does not agree with the policies of the Conservatives, Labour and the Lib Dems. The SNP want modest spending rises.
8.15pm BST
Farage says the questioner is right. How can anyone believe these people?
The coalition was put together to get rid of the deficit. But it has not. We could stop giving money to Brussels, and end vanity projects like HS2. And we should end the Barnett formula.
8.13pm BST
Q: How do the party leaders think they will be able to eliminate the deficit without raising taxes or making vast cuts to services?
8.09pm BST
Ed Miliband says for five years the economy has not been working for ordinary people. He will rescue the NHS, and build a future for all young people. He will cut tuition fees to £6,000, and cut the deficit. Some people will say this is as good as it gets. He says it can get so much better.
8.09pm BST
Leanne Wood says she is speaking to the people of Wales. Plaid offers hope to the young people. It can work for them, but it needs their support. Please support Plaid Cymru, to make it Wales’ voice in Westminster.
8.08pm BST
David Cameron says the government came to power. It has had a plan. It is working. The economy is growing. The others said the plan would not work, that unemployment would go up. Let’s not go back to square one. Britain can do much better than that.
8.06pm BST
Nicola Sturgeon says the SNP wants to change the way Westminster works. It is not just the Scots who want Westminster to work better. She won’t pretend she doesn’t want independence. But, while Scotland is in the UK, the SNP will try to make Westminster work better. The SNP does not want nuclear weapons. The SNP will fight for Scotland, but also for progressive politics for the UK.
8.05pm BST
Nick Clegg says he won’t pretend things are perfect. And he won’t pretend he has not made mistakes. He has. But the Lib Dems will offer “grit and resilience” to carry on with the job. He will always act fairly. And always serve all parts of the country.
8.04pm BST
Nigel Farage says all six other leaders support membership of the EU, and open door immigration that comes with that.
He is from Ukip. They think open door immigration has depressed wages, and made it harder to get to see a GP. Ukip wants to take back controls of borders.
8.03pm BST
Natalie Bennett says we were told that austerity and bankers bonuses were inevitable. They were not. Let’s put principles and values first. The Greens want a fair society, that does not make the poor pay for the fault of the bankers.
Other parties trade on fear. The Greens start with hope. Vote for change.
8.02pm BST
Julia Etchingham is introducing the seven leaders. It’s “David Cameron for the Conservatives”, not prime minister.
8.01pm BST
The camera has shown all seven leaders. David Cameron seemed to be looking into the distance, doing the statesman pose.
8.00pm BST
The ITV show is starting.
7.59pm BST
#leadersdebate proceeded by advert for headlice shampoo on STV. Interesting intro for our top politicians
7.58pm BST
I’m glad I’m not trying to blog from the press room.
Debate starts in 150 seconds...but still no tv in the press room. pic.twitter.com/LRbYRnq6BW
7.57pm BST
At UK Polling Report Anthony Wells, the YouGov pollster, has made a similar argument to Daniel Finkesltein’s (see 7.38pm): the debate might not change much at all, he says.
Remember winning the debate isn’t necessarily a good guide to any impact in voting intention. The 2010 debates produced a big short term effect on the polls, even it deflated by the election itself. I certainly wouldn’t assume that debates will always have a similarly noticable impact, perhaps 2010 was the exception. Even if someone does win in the post-debate verdict polls, don’t assume it will necessarily make any difference in voting intention – wait for the next regular voting intention polls to see if it’s really changed views (a wait that will sadly be extended by the Easter bank holidays, which I expect means this weekend will be light on polls). Certainly don’t put too much weight on shifts in the votes of people within the samples of viewers in the debate polls… remember they are made up only of viewers, so will magnify any effect. Most voters won’t be watching.
7.54pm BST
And this, from Ipsos MORI’s Ben Page, is revealing.
Fewer people than ever say party leaders influence their vote. Good for Miliband #massdebate #ge2015 pic.twitter.com/DPBQ8XYBTF
7.51pm BST
Here are two interesting Twitter observations from journalists.
Just one prediction: Salford will echo to the chomp chomp chomp of Bennett, Wood, Sturgeon eating Ed Miliband's dinner on food banks and pay
Remember leaders are narrow casting 2night. Farage only interested in the 20% who might vote 4 him, Plaid only interested in Welsh votes etc
7.50pm BST
Theresa May is in Salford spinning for the Tories too.
Teresa May in the #leadersdebate spin room. pic.twitter.com/rNFMXT3bND
7.48pm BST
LabourList readers expect Nicola Sturgeon to win tonight.
7.46pm BST
Just to keep things in perspective.
Nothing that will be said tonight in UK #leadersdebate will match importance of Iran nuclear deal or horror in Northern Kenya. Perspective.
7.44pm BST
The Economist says David Cameron has the most to lose.
But all the same this format will be unlikely to favour the prime minister. For a start, the format is sure to be unwieldy. Large election debates have bored voters before: in Germany round-table talks between several party leaders had to be scrapped in the 1980s after they became farcically dull affairs. Mr Clegg, who saw an initial boost in popularity ratings after his 2010 turn opposite Mr Cameron and Mr Brown, has already expressed concern that he will not be able to be heard over the “cacophony” of other voices tonight. (That may be the least of Mr Clegg’s problems, as his party drops down in the polls.)
More pressingly, by insisting on letting nearly all the other party leaders into the debate, Mr Cameron has, perhaps unwittingly, given a boost to several smaller parties. The appearance of Leanne Wood, the head of Plaid Cymru, may help her party to hold on to its three Welsh seats. Natalie Bennett, the leader of the Greens, may be able to swipe a few more Labour and Lib Dem votes if she performs well, and does not have another “mind blank”, as she did in a radio interview a few weeks ago.
7.43pm BST
The Conservatives have both George Osborne and William Hague on duty in the spin room in Salford.
Labour has Yvette Cooper and Douglas Alexander, who just tweeted this.
Just arriving at Salford's Media City ready to watch the #leadersdebate. Just half an hour to go now. pic.twitter.com/kqNh1iIdgI
7.41pm BST
On Sky Kay Burley has just been asking Yvette Cooper about Ed Miliband’s new shoes and his tie. He arrived at the studios wearing a grey tie, his “lucky” tie, according to Sky’s Adam Boulton. Cooper said she did not know anything about it.
I do hope Boulton and Burley don’t get reported to the Fawcett Society. Or us, for that matter. (See 5.50pm.)
7.38pm BST
In the Times today (paywall) Daniel Finkelstein says we should not be lulled into thinking that tonight’s debate will make a big difference to the election result. People will “wildly overestimate” its impact, he says. In reality, it may make little or no difference to what happens on polling day, he argues.
How can you tell who will have won tonight’s television debate? I have bad news: the answer will probably be no one. And even if someone does win, it may be hard to tell exactly who.
Surveys of American presidential debates generally discover no effect. The famous victory of Kennedy over Nixon? A myth. Kennedy was slightly further ahead on the day of the debate than he was on election day.
7.29pm BST
Angus Robertson tells me there will be lots of "Game of Thrones-style side-plots" in tonight's #leadersdebate.
I presume this does not mean incest, torture and murder!
7.28pm BST
Michael Gove has coined a new term for multi-party government.
Michael Gove says only alternative to Tory majority is “Frankenstein government” with multiple other parties #scary #leadersdebate
7.21pm BST
Marina Hyde will be popping up through the liveblog tonight with her analysis. This is her pre-match report:
7.17pm BST
David Cameron has arrived.
PM David Cameron arrives at the @itvnews #LeadersDebate with his wife Samantha Cameron (some gallery chatter): pic.twitter.com/wd1qpjdtlM
7.07pm BST
Nick Clegg has arrived.
Nick Clegg has arrived. Nice yellow tie. #LeadersDebate https://t.co/tIfrFKqCG2
7.06pm BST
Tonight we will get polling figures showing who voters thought won.
But who should we expect to win? Here are five benchmarks you could use.
YouGov Q: Who do you expect to win tonight's debate: Cameron 29% Miliband 18% Clegg 3% Farage 19% Bennett 1% Sturgeon 9% Wood 0% DK 21%
7.06pm BST
Megan Carpentier, opinion editor of Guardian US, gives this analysis of the UK TV debates:
The perception that a seven-way leaders debate will be “a disjointed, incoherent cacophony, simultaneously turning off the voters and belittling the politicians” could easily be informed by the American experience, in which our television networks line up anyone who is interested in running for the highest office in the land (or, if Republican, getting a Fox News contributor contract) and can prove that they could get at least a few hundred votes.
So, at least in that aspect, a debate between actual party leaders is more than what we Americans can expect starting in August. During the 2012 campaign, for instance, there were 20 debates between the various Republican candidates (the first of which was in May 2011), and as many as nine candidates shared the stage with others clamouring to get in; during the 2008 campaign, there were 25 live Democratic debates and eight candidates participated in seven of them. The Republicans have decided to limit themselves to nine debates for the 2016 elections; the Democrats might not have any if no one besides Hillary Clinton runs.
6.53pm BST
My colleague Frances Perraudin is at the debate in Salford.
She says there are plenty of photographers.
Snappers eagerly awaiting the arrival of all seven party leaders #ITVDebate pic.twitter.com/wgpMDlnx25
Steve Spy is protesting against police corruption. "Politicians are puppets", he says. "The bankers are in charge." pic.twitter.com/zNFwTSrzHo
6.45pm BST
Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP leader, has retweeted this picture of herself backstage at the ITV studios with Leanne Wood, the Plaid Cymru leader.
The SNP and Plaid are sister parties, and the two leaders are friends.
.@NicolaSturgeon & @LeanneWood greet each other backstage at the ITV studio #voteSNP #GE15 #LeadersDebate pic.twitter.com/wbuzoZPTZG
6.39pm BST
Leaders are arriving for the debate.
6.33pm BST
As Rowena Mason explained earlier, there will be opening statements, four questions, and then closing statements. (See 5.44pm.)
Here is the order in which the leaders are speaking.
6.21pm BST
My colleague Tara Conlan has written a mini profile of Julia Etchingham, who is chairing tonight’s debate.
Julie Etchingham was the first woman to co-anchor an election night programme five years ago.
She is renowned for her extensive research and her big-hitting interviewees have included Condoleeza Rice, Hillary Clinton and the past four prime ministers.
6.16pm BST
Deborah Mattinson, the pollster overseeing the Battleground Britain project for the Guardian looking at what floating voters think, has written an article about what focus groups reveal about how the leaders are perceived.
Judging by her piece, it might be wise to put some money on Nicola Sturgeon winning tonight.
By a long way, the most positive leader image was that of Nicola Sturgeon – among Scottish voters and even those English voters who knew who she was: strong, intelligent, and honest.
The more wary among our swing voters chose words such as “cunning” and “skillful”, but overall there was considerable appreciation of the plucky upstart. Building on this position of strength is Sturgeon’s task for Thursday, perhaps the hardest task of all.
6.08pm BST
The Conservative Zac Goldsmith predicted Britain is heading exactly towards another multi-party coalition in the next few weeks, adding there is no reason why coalition cannot be a good thing. He is one of the first Conservative MPs to admit an overall majority may be beyond David Cameron’s reach.
I thought there were things that the Liberal Democrats could bring. I thought they would be good on environmental issues. I thought I would be able to rely on them. I though they would be good on reform. I have been massively disappointed on all the key issues. I have stood outside the lobby at times saying ‘do you know what you are voting for?’
I have been a de-facto, uninvited trespassing whip saying ‘you are about to vote for something I guarantee you did not say you would vote for before the election’, with minimal effect.
5.58pm BST
Here is the set for the leaders’ debate at the ITV studios in Salford.
5.50pm BST
Ed Miliband has been buying shoes in Manchester ahead of tonight’s debate, the Manchester Evening News reports. Rather, he sent an aide to buy two pairs for him, for £65 each.
5.47pm BST
Rowena has also written profiles of all seven leaders which you can read here.
5.44pm BST
Here’s a guide to what will happen tonight from my colleague Rowena Mason. (It was posted on our earlier live blog, so apologies to people who have read it already.)
And perhaps the most important thing (for foolberry) – it starts at 8pm.
5.33pm BST
We don’t know if there has been any kicking or screaming in Manchester, but the event that many people assumed would never happen is finally getting underway and, as the news bulletins have been reporting, David Cameron has been dragged into a head-to-head with Ed Cameron.
Or rather, thanks to some deft foot-dragging by Downing Street, where debates were never popular because many Tories think they cost Cameron his majority in 2010, it’s more of a head-to-head-head-to-head-to-head-to-head-to-head - because, of course, seven leaders are actually taking part. As the Guardian reports today, some of Cameron’s aides believe the result will be a “democratic bore-athon”, which could be so dull as to avoid damaging Cameron’s election chances, or a vivid demonstration of the “chaos” that would ensure if Labour, the SNP and other parties tried to form a multi-party coalition.
Confirmation of tonight's snap polls: YouGov/Times ICM/Gdn ComRes/ITV Surv'n/Mirror MORI You heard it here first! https://t.co/dU15A0uIPy
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