Rolling coverage as the eurogroup resumes high-stakes negotiations over Greece’s financial programme this afternoon.
Lunchtime summary: Not much hope of a deal
Varoufakis: No time for games
Greek stock market falls
Germany’s Schäuble is not optimistic
Photos: Sunday protests
1.18pm GMT
There’s little hope of a breakthrough today over Greece’s bailout, as eurozone finance ministers prepare to hold fresh talks.
As finance minister of a small, fiscally stressed nation lacking its own central bank and seen by many of our partners as a problem debtor, I am convinced that we have one option only: to shun any temptation to treat this pivotal moment as an experiment in strategizing and, instead, to present honestly the facts concerning Greece’s social economy, table our proposals for regrowing Greece, explain why these are in Europe’s interest, and reveal the red lines beyond which logic and duty prevent us from going.
Acc 2 @capitalgr sources, meeting between Varoufakis-Dijsselbloem lasted only 15 minutes, indicative of the mood... #Greece
“I feel sorry for the Greeks at the moment. They’ve elected a government which is currently acting irresponsibly.”
"I feel sorry for the Greeks" _ Link to Schaeuble interview http://t.co/l5XLrSy3sB #Greece @DLF pic.twitter.com/zvmi72T0RN
“I think it is a misjudgment by Greece. If you look at the repayment needs to which Greece committed itself again at the last meeting, then they need money too, not just time,”
“The Germans are right from a certain point of view. Greece, not the government of today, the country, signed a number of agreements. They must respect those agreements independently of the change of government.
But the Greeks say, and they are right, I support them, ‘we have just changed government, so we are not going to do everything as before.
“By all accounts, it seems that Greece and the broader Euro-Zone are on a collision course: the Syriza-led government doesn’t seem ready to break its electoral promises to end austerity; and the German-led creditor bloc doesn’t seem ready to allow for debt forgiveness away from the current program.”
Although some ways of, we do believe the contours of an agreement are beginning to emerge. Greece will win its preferred choice of framework. This is likely to be a full, new, ESM bailout, not an extension of the program that currently exists. Germany, however, will win on the substance.
The reforms included in the new program are likely to be much more consistent with Germany’s preferences, over issues such as the fiscal primary surplus, privatizations and labor market reform, as time elapses, and the Greek government’s negotiating leverage slowly begins to erode.
Excellent from @duncanweldon on where things stand in Greece. Read the whole thing. https://t.co/pegBLPGJqy pic.twitter.com/hJtPIwrbjc
12.59pm GMT
There is “negligible chance” of a deal today, reckons Wolf Piccoli of Teneo Intelligence.
He believes an “extraordinary summit” of EC leaders may be needed to tackle the crisis.
The Greek government has already been briefing local media that no agreement will be reached today. Similarly, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble declared on Monday morning that based on technical talks held over the weekend, he was sceptical of the chances for a deal. Athens is preparing itself for the need to hold another Eurorgoup meeting soon, potentially even an extraordinary summit of the European Council to resolve the issue at the level of heads of state and governments.
The latter might indicate that Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras still believes that a mere political deal was achievable – if so, this will soon turn out to be unrealistic. Led by Germany, Greece’s international creditors appear determined to hold their line and force Athens into providing a specific reform program that preserves the gist of measures enacted under the current program. With two weeks to go until the current program expires, policy-makers in Berlin feel that there is no need to give in too quickly to a government that has still been unwilling or unable to substantiate its own plans.
12.39pm GMT
Sky News’s Ed Conway reports that there are technical glitches at the EC’s offices in Brussels:
Computers here at Commission broken, so no security badges for journalists. “It’ll work in five minutes,” says EC man. “Five Greek minutes”
12.33pm GMT
For an insight into Greece’s negotiating strategy, do check out today’s New York Times.
Yanis Varoufakis has written a column for the NYT, in which he’s adamant that he’s not playing with game theory (in which he’s an expert). Instead, the Greek finance minister insists that he’s simply presenting Greece’s position honestly.
I am often asked: What if the only way you can secure funding is to cross your red lines and accept measures that you consider to be part of the problem, rather than of its solution? Faithful to the principle that I have no right to bluff, my answer is: The lines that we have presented as red will not be crossed. Otherwise, they would not be truly red, but merely a bluff.
But what if this brings your people much pain? I am asked. Surely you must be bluffing.
Worth reading this @yanisvaroufakis op-ed in @NYTimes. He presents a v hard line. Not sure where compromise is found http://t.co/zIcygjV7Ga
12.23pm GMT
Apparently Varoufakis and Dijsselbloem have now concluded their pre-eurogroup meeting:
#Greece Varoufakis - Dijsselbloem meeting concluded in Brussels #eurogroup
12.20pm GMT
Pierre Moscovici, the EU’s financial commissioner, has just been doorstepped in Brussels.
He told reporters that the eurogroup will seek a “positive conclusion” on Greece:
#Eurogroup - Doorstep @EU_Commission @pierremoscovici on a possible agreement with #Greece http://t.co/InZmDlbUVE pic.twitter.com/bdeIlRUckG
12.05pm GMT
The ANA newswire says Yanis Varoufakis and Jeroen Dijsselbloem were expected to meet for talks ahead of the eurogroup meeting this afternoon.
11.58am GMT
PS: Here’s a couple of screengrabs from this morning’s videoclip, in case you can’t play it on your device:
11.51am GMT
The European Council newsroom has uploaded a videoclip showing eurogroup chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem and Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis arriving at today’s meeting.
11.36am GMT
The Bundesbank has urged Greece’s commercial banks not to buy more Greek government debt.
“Extending the liquidity requirements by taking short-term Greek state bonds in the coming weeks would run contrary to this.”
An upbeat Bundesbank calls speed, strength of German pick up 'Remarkable.' 'Understandable' that German Growth Forecasts 'Markedly Higher.'
11.19am GMT
Nick Malkoutzis, deputy editor at Greek newspaper Kathimerini, isn’t impressed by the war of words over who is more irresponsible:
How encouraging that preparation for today's #Eurogroup has begun with name calling. Wedgies to follow doorsteps this afternoon? #Greece
Decision day on #Greece bailout. Debt deal possible but key is willingness to continue reforms. Hard, politically, for Syriza to give ground
11.08am GMT
Finance ministers should be arriving at the eurogroup meeting in three hours time; hopefully they’ll speak to the press assembled outside.
Doorstep #Eurogroup at around 15.00.
10.56am GMT
Despite the discouraging noises this morning, Kit Juckes, currency strategist at Société Générale, reckons the eurozone will muddle through this immediate crisis:
Kicking cans down roads is the EU’s forte and the most likely outcome of negotiations with Greece is still that a temporary deal is reached so that talks can continue and funding be maintained for now.
10.44am GMT
Back in Athens, government spokesman Gavriil Sakellaridis has also insisted that they’re serious about reaching a deal with eurozone partners:
#Greece spox:We want a solution on a politic level,we dont see it as a poker.We dont bluff. Govt's intention is 2reach a deal w the partners
10.18am GMT
Why was the EU’s trade surplus so much smaller than the eurozone’s last year? Take a bow, British consumers:
Meanwhile, wider EU trade surplus only €24 billion, due to the valiant efforts of the UK to consume *everything in the world*
10.14am GMT
It’s all kicking off, even before finance ministers arrive in Brussels.
Greece’s government has hit back at Wolfgang Schäuble’s claim that Athens is behaving irresponsibly, arguing that Berlin is just as culpable for the current deadlock.
#Greece govt spox Sakellaridis re Schaeuble's comments: Well, I could say #Germany's behaviour is irresponsible too
#Eurogroup mood music: "I'm sorry for Greeks. They elected a govt which is behaving rather irresponsibly." -Schäuble http://t.co/fFBS8nmX36
10.08am GMT
Just in. The eurozone’s trade surplus has widened again.
The single currency region exported €24.3bn more goods than it imported in December, up from a €13.6bn surplus in December 2013.
Euro area international trade in goods surplus €195bn in 2014, €24bn surplus for EU #Eurostat http://t.co/KAcSeplYDl pic.twitter.com/GtNfPZKXCb
9.54am GMT
London newspaper CityAM has published a handy breakdown of the new deal which Greece is seeking; and the likelihood of each part being agreed:
Nice @CityAM graphic highlighting @OpenEurope assessment of #Greece position at #Eurogroup http://t.co/5d4E0oFVGH pic.twitter.com/6fZM8XW4Wh
9.47am GMT
The uncertainty over Greece hasn’t hurt the euro today, which is up around 0.2% against the US dollar at $1.1408.
But the single currency could weaken if there’s no progress in Brussels. Susanne Galler, a strategist with Jefferies in London, told Reuters:
“The market consensus is for them to do a deal by the end of this week. But we think that if there’s no deal today and the clock starts ticking then the euro will look increasingly vulnerable.”
9.31am GMT
German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble also accused the new Greek government of behaving ‘irresponsibly’ during this morning’s radio interview, reports Agence France-Presse.
AFP reports:
Schäuble, who was recently caricatured in the Greek press as wearing a Nazi-era army uniform, hit out at the insults Greece has dealt to its eurozone partners.
“I feel sorry for the Greeks at the moment. They’ve elected a government which is currently acting irresponsibly,” Schäuble said.
9.20am GMT
Marc Ostwald of ADM Investor Services is also downbeat about how much progress we’ll see today:
“It appears unlikely that there will be even a short-term ‘bridge’ agreement between Greece and the Euro group at today’s meeting, but it is to be hoped that some further common ground can be found.”
9.19am GMT
I’m en route to Brussels for what was billed as the crunch eurogroup meeting on Greece. It looks increasingly like ending in discord (again)
Meanwhile, Eurogroup officials are sitting down in Brussels now, to work on the technicalities of today’s meeting.
Euro Working Group (EWG) at 10.30 (CET), #Eurogroup officially starts at 3pm. #Greece #economy #ec #ecb #imf
9.18am GMT
Another worrying sign: Investors are selling out of Greek bonds this morning.
The yields (or interest rate) on Greek debt has risen, indicating that it’s seen as riskier.
9.04am GMT
8.55am GMT
Fears that this afternoon’s eurogroup meeting won’t break the deadlock between Greece and its creditors have hit shares in Athens.
The main ATG stock market fell over 4% in early trading, with the banking sector falling over 8%.
#Greece Athens stock excange -4.33%, banks -8.58% after minutes in session
8.53am GMT
The FT’s Peter Spiegel also fears today’s meeting won’t deliver a break-through deal.
All signals seem to suggest no #Greece deal tonight at #Eurogroup. So next question is: how hard a deadline is today, really?
8.48am GMT
“It’s a day ending in ‘y’ so it must be another crucial day for the Greek debt crisis,” says a weary-sounding Jeremy Cook of World First.
He explains why it’s important that some progress is made today:
Alexis Tsipras and Yanis Varoufakis have until the end of the month to negotiate an extension of credit terms for Greece. The current bailout package expires on February 28th. A deal today would give other European parliaments just less than a fortnight to vote on the extension and form some kind of consensus and agreement around the rehabilitation of the Greek state.
Late on Thursday the European Central Bank extended the amount of money it was willing to provide to Greek banks in a bid to shore up liquidity within the country. Reports over the weekend suggest that the pace of withdrawal from Greek banks has increased in the past week to around EUR200m a day.
8.24am GMT
Europe’s stock markets are dipping in early trading, as traders react to the generally negative comments from finance ministers this morning.
The FTSE 100 is down 15 points, or -0.23%, at 6857, while Germany’s DAX has dropped by 29 points, or 0.3%.
Investors are waiting for proof of real progress on both the Greek debt negotiations (extended talks expected, still significant gaps between both sides) and the ceasefire in Ukraine (tentative at best).
8.14am GMT
Thousands of Greek citizens took to the streets last night to show their support for Greece’s negotiators in Brussels today:
#Greece today Trafalgar Square was yours; Our solidarity with you #Syriza pic.twitter.com/KFXUJ44rwm
8.03am GMT
The finance ministers of Austria and Malta have also been speaking this morning, and neither sound keen to grant Greece much help:
Austrian MinFin on German tv: if you need a loan, don't go to your bank, insult the director and then try to re-negotiate conditions
*MALTA FIN MIN SAYS GREECE ASKING FOR `IMPOSSIBLE FAVORS'
7.59am GMT
France’s finance minister, Michel Sapin, has also hit the airwaves this morning to argue that Greece must respect European rules.
Speaking on France 2 television a few minutes ago, Sapin warned that Greece would face “huge dangers” if it left the eurozone.
“The Germans are right from a certain point of view. Greece, not the government of today, the country, signed a number of agreements. They must respect those agreements independently of the change of government.
But the Greeks say, and they are right, I support them, ‘we have just changed government, so we are not going to do everything as before.”
#Greece | *FRANCE'S SAPIN SAYS THERE'S A `CHANCE' OF ACCORD ON GREECE TODAY ...Schauble not on same page clearly
7.45am GMT
Germany’s finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, is not optimistic that Greece and its creditors will reach a deal today.
“From what I’ve heard about the technical talks over the weekend, I’m very sceptical, but we will get a report today and then we’ll see.”
Neither side optimistic on #Eurogroup. Schaeuble: very pessimistic on quick result. #Greece: it will be difficult, decision not certain.
7.38am GMT
Good morning.
It’s another crunch day in the battle between Greece and its creditors over its bailout programme.
Monday’s #Eurogroup agenda includes #Greece, #Cyprus, #Portugal: http://t.co/0SaoqOBFEb.
“I expect difficult negotiations on Monday. But I am full of confidence.
“I am in favour of a solution where everyone wins. I want a win-win solution. I want to save Greece from tragedy and Europe from a split.”
Most likely outcome Monday: A typical Euro fudge formula that the creditors will call 'extension' &the Greek govt will call 'transformation'
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