Matt’s Match-ups Preliminary Final: Canberra Raiders V Melbourne Storm
Its Preliminary Finals time, and the first time the Raiders have been involved in one since 1997, so let’s not waste any time this week, especially as the Storm don’t have a last week to talk about.
AAMI Park.
Saturday night.
7.45pm kickoff.
LETS GO!
Storm V Raiders
Cameron Munster 1. Jack Wighton
Suliasi Vunivalu 2. Edrick Lee
Will Chambers 3. Jarrod Croker [emoji767]
Cheyse Blair 4. Joseph Leilua
Marika Koroibete 5. Jordan Rapana
Blake Green 6. Blake Austin
Cooper Cronk 7. Aidan Sezer
Jesse Bromwich 8. Junior Paulo
Cameron Smith [emoji767] 9. Josh Hodgson
Jordan McLean 10. Shannon Boyd
Kevin Proctor 11. Josh Papalii
Tohu Harris 12. Elliott Whitehead
Dale Finucane 13. Sia Soliola
Interchange
Ben Hampton 17. vs 14. Kurt Baptiste
Tim Glasby 15. Luke Bateman
Christian Welch Nichol 16. Paul Vaughan
Kenneath Bromwich 14. vs 17. Joseph Tapine
Matt White 20. Not Named
Felise Kaufusi 21. Not Named
(Bolded players are the winners of the skin. The extended bench is excluded.)
*I’ve decided to match the utilities up this week, even though the two teams named haven’t.
Matchups:
Fullbacks:
Munster has had MASSIVE boots to fill in 2016, those of Billy Slater. He isn’t Slater, but he is quickly making his own mark. He has 11 try assists, 4 tries, averages 146m a game and averages over 5 tackle busts a game. These numbers are very similar to Wighton’s, 13 try assists, 8 tries, averages 140m per game and averages nearly 4 tackle busts a game. It’s actually pretty tough to split these two, but Wighton is the best last line of defense in the game and that gives him the edge.
Wingers:
Vunivalu might have an error or two in him, and he actually reminds me a little of his opposite numbers first season in the NRL, but the major difference, Vunivalu has a Radradra-esque strike rate. Vunivalu has equaled Folau’s rookie try scoring record. He would be my second choice for rookie of the year. Edrick Lee has been good in 2016, but he doesn’t stack up against Vunivalu.
His partner is Marika Koroibete and with 12 tries and an average of 145m per game in 2016, he is having a great year himself. Unfortunately for the Union bound Fijian flyer, he faces the most exciting winger in the 2016 competition, Jordan Rapana. As of the 35th minute during the Panthers game, Rapana is now the 4th member of the Raiders single season try scoring record with 22. This week he has a chance to become the outright leader.
Centres:
Blair is yet another in a long line of journeyman that Bellemy has turned into good player. His partner, Chambers, might be a Queensland Origin representative, but the problem the Storm pair has… they face ‘both barrels’ as far as NRL centres go. Croker and Leilua are the undisputed best pair for 2016.
Halves:
There are probably only two halves in Worldwide Rugby League better than Cooper Cronk, and neither wear Lime Green. Cronk is the ultimate front running halfback, and has a six sense when it comes to his captain, Cam Smith. As well as Sezer is going, and last week he was awesome, he isn’t in Cronk’s class.
If there was a better way to return from injury, someone better tell Blake Austin what he missed. He scored a try, bringing back some Austin 2015, with an ‘ankle breaking’ step leaving two Panthers for dead. While the other Blake, Green, doesn’t have the same ability or ceiling of Austin, he is having a very good and consistent 2016. He hasn’t had a season disrupted by injury, and with 2 tries and 11 assists I think he pips Austin’s 8 tries and 3 assists.
Prop:
Jesse Bromwich is regarded as one of the best props in the world, and it’s very hard to argue averaging 146m and 30 tackles and 2 offloads a game. That doesn’t take into account the 4 tries and 2 assists in 2016. It also doesn’t take into consideration the importance of his performance in the Cowboys game to get the Storm a week off, as 180m, 29 tackles and a try is no mean feat. It’s a very tough call, possibly even a ‘green goggles’ call, but Junior Paulo has taken his game to new heights in 2016, and last week was a perfect case and point. Last week he made poor Nathan Cleary his personal speed bump, and that’s a major reason why he gets the skin.
McLean is a giant, standing at 6 foot 5 and 115kgs. He averages 90m and 22 tackles a game in 2016. However, McLean faces off against a giant in Boyd, who averages 91m and 21.5 tackles a game. The difference being, when Boyd carries the ball, it gets similar results to that of Paulo, destruction!
Bateman saved the Raiders bacon against the Panthers, with a bone crunching hit on Merrin to prevent a try. Bateman averages 15m and 3.5 tackles more a game than Glasby, and both are good enough reasons for him to win the skin.
Welch Nichol is another huge body, standing at 6 foot 5 and 105kgs, but despite Bellamy picking him for 18 games, but he doesn’t use him. Like his number of games, Welch Nichol only averages 18 minutes a game. In the last 4 weeks, Vaughan has played 3 games, raking up over 300m and 44 tackles, while Welch Nichol has 658m and 219 tackles in 18 games. If you extrapolate these figures, Vaughan would have 1,800m and 264 tackles. This isn’t close.
Another Bromwich, another tough decision. Kenny averages 82m and 24 tackles a game and has 3 tries in 2016. Tapine averages 79m and 21 tackles a game, and has 4 tries in 2016. If you did a season count back, Tapine would lose. If you look at the last three games of both players, Kenny has made 299m and 85 tackles, while Tapine has 289m and 52 tackles. I really like Tapine, and I love the fact that this young tyro is starting to throw his weight around. Kenny Bromwich has been doing it all year, and has consistently been one of the Storm’s best and because of this, he is now a Kiwi international.
Hooker/ Utility:
I never thought I’d see they day where Cam Smith lost a skin without the injury/ suspension rule being in play. Cam Smith is still Cam Smith, a ridiculasly good player. However, he faces undoubtedly the form player of the competition. Hodgson was singlehandedly dismantling the Sharks til he was felled by friendly fire. Then, supposedly on one leg, Hodgson started against the Panthers where he left off against the Sharks. His kicking has been millimeter perfect, he run vs pass selection is impeccable. There is a very good reason the joint Meninga medalist is in the running for the Dally M player of the year.
The utility battle between Baptiste and Hampton is the closest it’s been for Kurt in a few weeks, however, Hampton, like Welch Nichol doesn’t get used by Bellamy. Also, he is a half or outside back ‘by trade’.
Backrow:
There are six very good backrowers going head to head this week and they are all very tough decisions.
Proctor is a Kiwi international, a backrow stud, and in fantastic form. However, his opposite number and joint Meninga medalist, Josh Papalli, is currently the best edge backrower in the game.
Harris is also a Kiwi international, backow stud and in fantastic form. However, in the last two weeks, Whitehead has looked spent after 30 minutes, and still produced 245m and 77 tackles in Finals. I really like Harris, and picked him in the last clash, but the Pom gets him this time.
Soliola has been fantastic for club in 2016, and his influence is something you notice, but is totally intangible. He has even tried to pump up the crowd in recent weeks. Funicane plays a similar styled game to Trent Merrin, Soliola’s opponent last week. He is a big minute, big numbers, mobile prop slotting into the #13. As I see it, its motivator/ leader vs productive workhorse. You need inspiration, motivation and leadership to win big games, BUT, you also need 110% effort, especially from you pack. I really like what Funicane has done in 2016, a ‘set and forget’ selection for Bellamy all year, BUT, I going to take the intangible factor of Sia. We saw him belt Penrith players all night, and he runs hard lines, which is what Funicane does too, BUT, he has that ‘follow me’ type mentality that gets you victories at this time of the year.
Result
The tally is Storm 4 and Raiders 13. Let’s be honest, the skins isn’t a fair reflection of the two teams. This is a Preliminary Final after all. The count is lopsided, but it’s a hell of a lot closer than that, as stated above. The Raiders ambushed the Storm in the opening minute, and then proceeded to belt them off Canberra Stadium the last time these two sides met. Will it be the same again? Or will the grinding style of Storm footy, built for this time of year, get the win?
Result, Raiders in a heart attack waiting to happen (by 2-4).
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Statistics: Posted by Matt — September 21, 2016, 9:07 am