It’s too early to make definitive judgements on teams, but Saturday’s match between Millwall and Sheffield United could tell us a lot about whether either side is ready to launch a promotion challenge. The reason? Both teams were thrashed on Tuesday night. Millwall lost 5-1 at Peterborough and, to make matters worse, West Ham supporting TV journalist Bianca Westwood was covering that match! Sheffield United fell apart in the first 15 minutes against Southend, who were bottom of the table before kick-off, losing 3-0. Both results pose question marks about the character of these teams.
There are also tactical issues. Lions boss Neil Harris stuck to his favoured 4-4-2 system throughout, even though the two central midfielders were being overrun. As we can see in the first clip in this video, it doesn’t work when you try to press the ball high up the pitch with two strikers. It creates gaps in your own half that other teams can pick off on the counter. They were let off the hook by Posh’s Paul Taylor (number 10) missing the target one-on-one, then perhaps went too far the other way: they stopped closing down altogether.
Shane Ferguson (18) didn’t get tight enough to Marcus Maddison for his cross shot that flew in (0:19 seconds), even though he had a left-back behind him and the ball was well inside his own half. For the third goal (0:35), Nadjim Abdou (26) looks like the culprit for charging out, but actually he was let down by a lack of cover. As a wide man in a 4-4-2, you have to block passing lanes and support the central midfielders to tighten things up in the middle – Ferguson and Aiden O’Brien (22) didn’t do that. O’Brien is a forward by trade, so if he’s the best player to play on the right in a 4-4-2, then you have to question the suitability of the system.
Similar questions can be asked of Sheffield United boss Chris Wilder, who fielded an attacking line-up against Southend. For the first goal (0:17), there was too many impulsive players chasing the ball, and not enough sticking to their positions. A simple ball over the top down the right allowed Luke O’Neill (7) free to cross it, before Jack O’Connell’s (5) own goal. There is the same issue on (0:41), in which we see seven players in the area of the pitch where the ball is. Simon Cox (10) had space to charge diagonally across the pitch with the ball, helped by a lack of physicality from Chris Hussey (3), to tee up Stephen McLaughlin (11) for a second.
Both teams need to be much more disciplined out of possession if they want to challenge this season. They have been given the tag of promotion favourites, now they need to earn it.
The Football Lab’s Verdict: 2-2
Other League One predictions
Bolton v Fleetwood
Trotters to continue their 100% winning record. 2-1
Bradford v Coventry
Bantams may stutter against a more defensive team. 0-0
Bury v Oldham
Latics yet to score, Shakers to keep 3rd clean sheet. 1-0
Northampton v Wimbledon
Wombles lost last 3, Cobblers lost 3 in 10 months. 2-0
Oxford v Peterborough
Games succeeding Posh’s last 6 3+ margin wins: W1D2L3… 2-1
Rochdale v MK Dons
Agard factor makes MK the more clinical side. 0-2
Scunthorpe v Gillingham
Top 6 berth likely for both clubs. 1-1
Shrewsbury v Chesterfield
Spireites to beat Salop, maybe not 7-1 again. 1-3
Southend v Bristol Rovers
Shrimpers must follow up their Bramall Lane win. 1-1
Swindon v Port Vale
Valiants the early surprise package? 1-2
Walsall v Charlton
Both teams unconvincing thus far. 1-1
Last week: 3 CRs/12. 1 ES