Everyone who has played fantasy football has, at one time or another had the following internal debate, “I really like this player’s talent, but this other player has such a better situation”. Now that situation might be a season long outlook or a weekly match-up, but nonetheless, fantasy football players’ are getting headache after headache, week after week, year after year regarding this very subject. There are those who believe talent triumphs over all (insert Player X’s name here truthers know who they are) while others believe that no matter how much talent a player has, their situation (Steelers’ running back, or Drew Brees’ tight end) can be a lone determining factor for draft slot or week-in-week-out playability. I won’t say that this article will answer the question of what’s more important, but I will strive to provide some concrete examples over this past season of each of these factors (talent or situation) having an impact on some of our favorite NFL players.
Talent Conquers All Until It Doesn’t
It’s pretty obvious that everyone who makes it to the NFL has talent to play football. Hell, I had some talent and only made it onto a Division III college team. That being said, it can be plain as day when you are watching a truly elite or once in a lifetime talent at a position. Heading into 2016 many fantasy analysts determined that players like Todd Gurley, Allen Robinson and DeAndre Hopkins were surefire can’t miss players because of their talent, and that talent was good enough to get them through even the most uninspiring situations. Let’s examine how some of the “most talented” players in the NFL failed to live up to expectations of fantasy players everywhere.
Unfortunately, we have to start at the top or near the top of most draft boards in 2016 with Todd Gurley. We all know how Gurley burst onto the scene in after debuting in week 3 of 2015 and continued his success for the rest of that season, making him a “no-doubter” in 2016 fantasy football circles. Unfortunately for Gurley and fantasy owners alike, 2016 didn’t go as expected. Gurley’s offensive line has only provided him 1 yard, yes 1 yard, prior to contact this season. He’s only averaged 3.2 YPC (yards per carry) on the season and has grinded his way to a top 24 running back finish. The lack of explosive plays have been troubling this season as well, as Gurley only has a long rush of 24 yards vs. multiple 50 yard rushes in 2015 even in similar, losing game scripts. One positive that has come out of the 2016 season was that Gurley was used more in the passing game, increasing his reception total to 39 vs. just 21 in 2015. The lesson to be learned is that no matter how talented a player is, there are other factors, especially at running back (offensive line, game scripts, playcalling) that can and will affect that player’s fantasy output.
It’s hard to not be convinced that both DeAndre Hopkins and Allen Robinson are not two of the 10 or 15 most talented wide receivers in the NFL after what they did in 2015. Again, 2 top 15 selections in 2016 fantasy football drafts (Hopkins at 8 and Robinson at 13), failed to live up to the hype, but for similar, yet different reasons. Let’s start with Hopkins who built upon a strong end to 2014 and continued to flourish in 2015 under a Brian Hoyer led Texans team. For those who thought it couldn’t get worse at QB than Hoyer, enter Brock Osweiler who was one of the worst starting QBs this season (54.6 QBR according to ESPN, good for 23rd out of 30 qualifiers). Hopkins only has a catch rate of 55% this season, down from 59% a season ago and couple that with a decrease in targets 128 in 2016 vs. 187 in 2015 (according to PFF) leads to a steep drop in production. Not only did his volume decrease in 2016, but the type of targets also worsened as his aDOT (average depth of target) also reduced from 14.9 to 12.5 meaning the deep balls simply were not being directed to Hopkins (rookie Will Fuller saw a 15.9 aDOT, whereas the combination of Nate Washington and Cecil Shorts only saw 12.2 and 11.5 in 2015). There is no doubt Hopkins is talented, an elite level talent at the WR position, but can he overcome his poor QB play and reduction in target quality and volume in 2017? That remains to be seen. If the Texans do not address their quarterback heading into next season, Hopkins should only be drafted as a WR 2/3.
There was little doubt that in 2016 there would be some type of regression for Allen Robinson, but the degree of regression was downright depressing. It’s been extremely rare for a WR to repeat 12 TD+ seasons (only Dez Bryant was able to do so from 2013-2014), so it’s not to be expected another 14 TD campaign from Robinson. However, like we saw in Hopkins, Robinson also dropped off in a number of key metrics. Robinson’s aDOT took a nose dive from 16.3 to 14 yards a 15% reduction in 2016 and his catch rate also dropped by 4% (52% in 2016 vs. 56% in 2015). His quarterback’s knack for garbage time production has also reverted back to more traditional measures as Blake Bortles has only totaled 2611 yards with 16 TDs when the Jags have been trailing this season vs 3428 yards and 29 TDs a season ago. I believe if the Jags and Blake Bortles do not progress next season, we could expect Robinson to be a WR 2 next season, not a highly drafted WR 1.
Talent Can Rise to the Top
However, it has not all been doom and gloom for talented players. Some of those players may have been on the cusp of greatness in the season prior (TY Hilton), or had a rough situation the year prior (Melvin Gordon) or made an instant impact due to injury in 2016 (Tyreek Hill). Let’s examine in the counterpoint of the talent equation, when a talented player has the right situation to excel, even after some question marks have been placed on that player in the previous season.
2015 was a lost season for the Indianapolis Colts after Andrew Luck went down midway through with a variety of ribs and internal organ injuries. Even with the injury to Luck, TY Hilton was able to produce a top 24 WR season with over 1100 yards and 5 TDs. Concerns abound that once Luck returned that Hilton would potentially take a backseat to teammate Donte Moncrief and potentially even lose some touches to fellow speedster Philip Dorsett. Luckily for Hilton owners, Donte Moncrief was injured for the vast majority of the 2016 season and Philip Dorsett proved that he is nothing more than a complementary piece to the Colts offense. Hilton’s YPR (yards per reception) actually decreased in 2016 (15.9 vs. 16.3 in 2015), but his efficiency has improved by leaps and bounds with Luck back under center making him the number 5 fantasy wide receiver in standard scoring leagues. Hilton’s catch rate of 64% improved by 9% over his 2015 rate leading to an increase of about 200 receiving yards in the process. With the correct situation Hilton was able to reach his full potential for fantasy players and should be considered a WR 1 heading into 2017.
Most NFL scouts and personnel will tell you that the biggest jump a player makes is from year 1 to year 2, and that was certainly the case for Melvin Gordon. Most started to write off Gordon after a sub-par rookie campaign in which he didn’t score a rushing TD on 184 carries. He added little in the passing game as Danny Woodhead scored 6 TDs out of the running back position and frequently played on the goalline over Gordon. 2016 flipped the script as Woodhead went down with an ACL injury and Gordon scored 12 total TDs in 13 games before going down with an injury himself. Gordon has improved his YAC (yards after contact) in 2016 to 2.5 yards over 2.2 from a season ago and curtailed his fumbling issues, for the most part, reducing those from 6 to 2. Another huge factor in Gordon’s turnaround was his offensive line. The Chargers led the league in starting offensive line combinations in 2015 (a statistic teams like to avoid) and were near the opposite end of the spectrum in 2016. While I don’t believe that Gordon is THE most talented running back in the NFL, Gordon’s talent was able to be put on display this season as the main cog in the Chargers offense. With Danny Woodhead coming back, expect a reduction in TDs next season for Gordon, but he should remain a RB1 as one of the biggest parts of a potent offense.
One of the most exciting to players to enter the NFL since Odell Beckham Jr., Tyreek Hill led many fantasy football players to championships this season. Since week 9, Hill is the 7th highest scoring wide receiver in standard scoring leagues according to PFF. Hill’s combination of track star and beyond speed and change of direction left fantasy players wondering why the Chiefs didn’t utilize Hill’s unique talents sooner this season than waiting for an injury to top wide receiver Jeremy Maclin. He’s not only caught 37 passes on 52 targets, but also has run the ball 15 times for a whopping 233 yards and 3 TDs. Some may say his limited usage will lead to inconsistent production in the future, which in most cases is true, typically you look for volume in fantasy football, but we can assume that his volume may increase in 2017. Hill is just one example of an extremely talented player getting a chance and making the most of it, which led to a great first campaign in 2016 and potentially more in 2017.
Conclusions
While a ton of fantasy football players like to deal in absolutes, this IS the way to measure success, this is the foolproof way to predict, that is simply not true. We need to take into account a multitude of factors when evaluating players heading into the upcoming season, not just their talent and not just their situation. It would be best for fantasy football players to take into account all aspects of individual players heading into 2017 so we do not repeat the same mistakes of 2016. Could we have seen such a dramatic drop off for players like Todd Gurley, probably not, but situations like his are an important lesson going forward to take into account all factors when valuing players for our upcoming fantasy drafts in 2017.
Typically we will find that the main cogs in a fantasy championship season will bridge both, having immense talent and also playing within an ideal or perfect situation like Ezekiel Elliott or Le’Veon Bell. However, there are plenty of other players that are talented enough to become fantasy factors if their situation changes like Melvin Gordon’s did in 2016. It’s important do your homework on each team and determine how their situation has changed in the preseason or during the season in 2017. Good luck next season.
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