Sometimes you have a player that scares you to death whether you are starting them, they are on your bench, or you are playing against them. Sometimes you have no choice but to play them because of bye weeks, sometimes you will have a choice of what to do with them and they will blow up on your bench while the guy you started instead does nothing. Sometimes it’s a big name guy who you drafted in the first round, sometimes it’s a waiver pickup, but when push comes to shove you only have a few options as to what to do with this person: bench them, drop them, trade them, or have faith and play them.
Faith as it pertains to fantasy football isn’t purely a baseless belief that a player will perform well simply because of who they are or what we perceive their role on a team to be, it is based on numbers, too, numbers that deserve respect. Targets, touchdowns, receptions, yards after the catch, yards after contact, career yards per game; there are many numbers that tell the story of an NFL player and when the numbers are right, you should have faith in that player. Odell Beckham Jr. proved himself worthy of our faith this weekend and Tom Brady continues to inspire faith since his return last week, but players like Todd Gurley and CJ Anderson are doing their best to test us. Now that we are through 6 weeks of the season, it is time to either stick with your studs or find someone new to have faith in, and that’s what this week’s edition of waiver magic is all about. Who can you pick up this week off the waiver wire and have faith in starting them this week and beyond.
Faith is a tricky thing because name bias is real and it’s hard to justify sitting Antonio Brown for a player like Terrelle Pryor. It’s generally not an advisable thing to do, but if you remove the names and look at AB’s numbers without Big Ben compared to TP’s numbers in his first year as a starting WR, there is a somewhat surprising story there. AB’s production drops by roughly half when Ben isn’t on the field and for that reason, I have enough faith in Terrelle Pryor to play him over AB this week. The numbers agree with me, and all you have to do is look at the 4 games Big Ben missed last year and what Antonio did in his absence to see it. Week 4 – 5/42/0, Week 5 – 3/45/0, Week 6 – 3/24/0, Week 7 – 6/124/0. No touchdowns, and except for week 7 he didn’t break 50 yards in a game. The point is that the numbers here tell a story of AB performing poorly with Ben out, but this is still a hard choice to make because you don’t want to be the person that “got cute” and sat fantasy’s best player then lost because of it. Well, making choices based on the numbers is never cute, in fact, it’s a smart thing to do and it might help you turn your season around to have “faith” in some new guys.
Cole Beasley, WR, DAL
Beasley has been flying under the radar despite steady production. Through the first 4 weeks Beasley had 23 catches for 279 yards but no scores. Over the last two weeks he’s found the endzone 3 times while racking up another 10 catches and 111 yards. Dak Prescott is playing at a high level and with the stellar O-line and play of rookie Ezekiel Elliott, Cole Beasley’s role as the slot guy on that team has become a valuable one. Much like Wes Welker in previous years with the Pats and Broncos, Beasley is a target monster and is getting looks all over the place. This role won’t change with Romo or Dez back and I have nothing but faith that Beasley is on his way to a big PPR season and is a reliable flex/bye week filler for anyone else moving forward. The Cowboys are headed for a bye this week but after that he is deploy-able all season. Keep in mind Antonio Brown and Odell Beckham both have byes in week 8 so now may be the time to choose their replacements and Beasley tops my list for that job.
Jay Ajayi, RB, MIA
Ajayi got the start this week over Arian Foster and it was the first time the Dolphins O-Line was actually intact. After burning the Steelers for over 200 rush yards and 2 TDs, it seems likely that the Dolphins will have faith in starting him next week and beyond. He’s a high-end RB2 with RB1 upside as long as he and that O-line are healthy.
Hunter Henry, TE. SD
Still available in over 50% of leagues, but he shouldn’t be. Even after going 6/83/1 this weekend, people are still scared that Antonio Gates being around is going to hurt Henry’s value. However, it appears that Gates is in more of a mentoring role with the Rookie TE, which is a good thing for Hunter’s value. The Chargers throw the ball a ton and Hunter Henry is a player they have faith in, so should you.
Dion Lewis, RB, NE
One of last year’s darlings before he got injured, Lewis seems close to returning to the Patriots backfield. After seeing James White’s performance this week as the pass catching back, you should be excited for what a healthy Lewis can do when he returns. Owned in less than 30% of leagues, now is the time to go get him if you haven’t already.
Justin Forsett, RB, DET
Though he didn’t get much work this weekend, he did look ready to resume a steady workload. Once he has time to acclimate to the team I expect him to overtake Zach Zenner and become the primary ball carrier in this offense. This is one of those “faith” calls that is based on Forsett’s previous numbers, the needs of Detroit long term, and a bit of a gut feeling. Realistically he is a deeper league stash, but with the state of running back this season, you’ve got to try and get a few of these guys who have a chance at hitting and getting the starting job.
Kenny Britt, WR, LA
We’ve probably all been burned by Kenny Britt at some point or another, but this week he burned the Lions and all of us who didn’t start him (which is all of us). Britt looked like what we had always hoped he would be this week and with the play of Case Keenum appearing elevated, Kenny went 7/136/2 and could be an excellent pickup. He was already the Rams leading receiver but those two touchdowns have given us good reason to have faith in him moving forward.
QB: Brian Hoyer, Tony Romo, Marcus Mariota
RB: Devontae Booker, Bilal Powell, James White
WR: Sammy Coates, Chris Hogan, Cameron Meredith, Jamison Crowder, Adam Thielen, Cordarelle Patterson
Last week I wrote about every one of these guys and more, so if you want to know how much faith I have in each of them, read Waiver Magic Week 6: ROS Strategy Edition here.
If you have any specific start/sit or waiver questions, I am happy to answer them on Twitter @Dieseltruck81
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