You may be familiar with the notion of doubles power. It’s the idea that there is some legitimate pop in the bat, but not enough to clear big-league fences. Many players peak as doubles-hitters–Nick Markakis, your MLB-leader in doubles, immediately comes to mind. For fantasy purposes, doubles are nice. They have a higher probability of leading to runs and RBI than singles; but ultimately, you covet the long ball.
What first piqued my interest in this topic is the hot start to the season Jose Altuve has had so far, power-wise. Fangraphs tackled this topic in far greater detail than I could and made me subscribe to the notion that Altuve could actually be a guy that hits 20-25 bombs–if Rollins can hit 30, why not Altuve? And is this power really something we couldn’t anticipate? He was coming off consecutive seasons of 40+ doubles.
Here are a couple more newly-minted sluggers experienced similar trends. In 2013, your leaderboard in doubles had Matt Carpenter & Manny Machado at 55 & 51 respectively. Yet, they only combined for only 25 home runs. Last year, however, the 2013 terrible twosome of two-baggers combined for a whopping 63 home runs, exhibiting a massive increase in power.
So we can run a exercise with the current MLB-doubles leaders (sans Nick Markakis, unless you think he’s due for a power surge). Even with the small sample size, there are some names that I think have more pop in their bats than they’ve currently shown.
Gregory Polanco– 8 Dubs
We’ve been waiting for ‘El Coffee’ to have his breakout season for years and, while he’s off to a very hot start, I think this is just the beginning. Polanco is an imposing figure on the field for a guy coming off a 27-steal campaign. Listed at 6’5 230, Polanco is built more like former (I swear there’s just something in my eyes, no YOU’RE the one blaring Sound of Silence) star Wide Receiver Calvin Johnson than your typical base bandit.
The Pirates realize that this flower is about to bloom as well. They recently extended Polanco’s contract to a team-friendly 5-year/$35 million dollar deal. Even as a lanky youngster from the Dominican, there were signs that there could one day be some serious power in this bat. Fangraphs bestowed a potential 65+ FV on his power tool–above average for sure. If Polanco continues to build into his large frame and at 24–there’s certainly time–we could have the makings of a solid power hitter.
Xander Bogaerts– 7 Dubs
I feel as though I could copy the exact same blurb I wrote for Polanco and apply the same here. Bogaerts hit 35 Dubs in 2015 and seems to be off to a nice start this season as well. He is still only 23 and post-hype bodes well to receive sneaky value for a player. Similar to Polanco, Bogaerts’ hit tool was never in doubt during his meteoric rise through the minor leagues. In 2011 as an 18 year old, Xander left a trail of despair in his wake, launching 16 bombs in an abbreviated 296 PA. As he continues to catch up in age to his competition, watch the power come with it.
Michael Conforto– 7 Dubs
It certainly seems easy to mention a guy who has 19 hits, 10 of which have been extra bases, and say “yup, that’s the breakout guy”. But that’s not in my character, I’ve seen the hype train building up steam. I’m not throwing more coal into the fire. I’m going to completely remove the brakes. I see no reason why Conforto can’t hit 30-35 bombs as soon as next season–Hell, as soon as this season. The dude is a monster, and has consistently proven that at every level. Conforto was drafted in the 1st round out of college, where he’d posted a triple slash line of .345/.504/.547–which for the record, adds up to a 1.051 OPS. Ridiculous.
I’ve done a lot of prospect scouting and sometimes WAR projections and other metrics like KATOH tend to skew prospects unfavorably. In Conforto’s case, he’s an average to below average runner. His throwing arm is mediocre, and his range is pretty blah. Fortunately, that has zero impact on his power-hitting potential. His FV is 60- above average, which may be too conservative. The Mets are batting him either 3rd or 4th lately, showing they’ve got faith in him. His fly ball rate rate is at a nice 46.7% so far and his HR/FB is 14.3% which is actually LESS than last season by 2% so there’s room for growth there. He’s also making hard contact on over 50% of his balls in play this year. These are all numbers that bode well for power potential. I’m no scout, but I’m pretty “confortoble” with stamping 30-HR potential on Big Mike and watching his sweet swing make me look smart.
So that’s that, I’ll keep an eye on the doubles leaderboard throughout the year and see if anyone climbs up that appears to be nearing their peak.
As always, you can reach me at:
@raylangtfr
See ya next week!
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