Well, I expected this to wiggle and waggle a bit and it does not surprise me that it trended south more, but it does surprise me how much this storm trended south.
As you guys saw when I was posting the snowfall output maps from our American model and it was showing 15-18 inches pretty continuously for a while, I was still saying mainly 6-12 inches. Obviously you all must have been wondering why I was so much lower than everyone else. Now you know why. I did not trust the extremely high amounts the model was projecting for us, and I pretty much always thought it would hit Central New Jersey with those higher amounts, leaving us just to the North of that area and putting us in the 6-12 inch range. Now it probably all makes sense to you. I fully expected this to trend south a bit. But this much of a move south was not expected. It is now putting the 12-18 inch band across Northern Virginia, Central Maryland, Delaware, and Southern New Jersey. That puts Central New Jersey in the 6-12 inch band and us in the 1-4 inch range here in Northern New Jersey, Southeastern New York State and for New York City. At least that is what the models are currently showing. I am however not yet saying that I believe the models.
The reason I don’t yet trust the models is that the main piece of energy responsible for producing this storm is just now coming inland in California. Once it is inland the models will have much better data to analyze and I expect this storm to trend further north again. However, it is possible that the models are already on to something, hence the big move south today. Only time will tell. However, if this storm does not start trending north again by tomorrow morning I will have to adjust my snowfall amounts downward, so be prepared for that possibility.
In any event, some light snow may develop as early as tomorrow morning and definitely by Sunday early afternoon, the snow will then continue lightly to moderately through the night and into late morning on Monday. If the storm does trend north the snow would continue into Monday night, but at the moment let’s just say it ends late on Monday morning.
After this storm passes, luckily the nuisance light snow for Wednesday has disappeared from the models. I say luckily, because the storm for Thursday night into Friday is now looking more likely. A strong storm is going to develop on Thursday over the Southeastern United States. This storm is then going to move northeast; likely bringing us more snow on Thursday night and Friday, and it could be a significant amount.
More snow is then likely next Sunday into Monday, and again next Tuesday night into Wednesday, and then the following Sunday.
No spring yet.
I will leave you with the latest run of the medium-range American model to show you the amazing turn of events today. I will leave it until tomorrow morning before I give up on my original thoughts though. Let’s see what happens.
Have a nice evening.
Click here or on the map below to view the latest snowfall output map from the medium-range American model.