With the extraordinary shock resignation of Key, the entire NZ political landscape has fractured and morphed. Factoring that in, here is the updated TDB special for the 2017 election.
OVERVIEW:
While National are still currently riding at unprecedented highs in the opinion polls, the shock resignation of John Key forces the question of how much of his popularity was National’s. While this question is being answered the Opposition finally senses a change and are now piling on more pressure. Can the Opposition remain focused and work together because that will become as big an issue in the voters minds as whether or not Bill English, Steven Joyce and Paula Bennett can keep National on track for a fourth term.
As the economic clouds of another global financial implosion build and interest rates are about to start hitting mortgagees in the pocket, voters will want to see a Government in waiting, not a splintered and fractured opposition.
POLITICAL PARTIES:
National: With Key leaving, Bill English has to try and be charismatic. Good luck with that. Key made voters forget that National are a political party for rich pricks who rule in the interests of banks, corporate farming and the wealthy. It will be hard to hide that reality with Steven Joyce constantly grinning like a hungry wolf in a kindergarten and Paula Bennett’s yeah-nah poverty denial intellectualism.
Strengths: The corporate mainstream media remain firmly in National’s pocket and National have a huge war chest of cash to fight the next election with.
Weaknesses: Two words. Judith Collins. Judith is plotting right now to destabilise English to be in a position to take the leadership from him if he loses in 2017. She will spend the next 10months waging an invisible guerrilla war on the National leadership as hard right backbenchers grow increasingly frustrated by the lack of attacks on beneficiaries, unions and the left in general. Watch for nasty attacks on Whaleoil against Joyce and Bennett now Collins has reactivated her favourite attack dog.
Labour: If Labour want to be the backbone of the next Government they need to be in the early 30s and the only way they are going to do that is play to their strengths in Auckland. A huge 2 tick campaign has to be pushed in Auckland and no Labour Party MP should be saying anything other than ‘Houses for first time buyers, 6 months parental leave and Living Wage’. Labour’s greatest support is from working people, women, Pacific Island and Maori voters and first time affordable homes, a living wage and better parental leave are the issues that those voters can immediately identify with and budget weekly. Those are tangible benefits in their every day life. With Shearer leaving and Jacinda Ardern standing in Mt Albert, another by-election thrashing will be great for the party and Jacinda moving to Mt Albert will open up Auckland Central. Perhaps a seat Laila Harre could run for now she has rejoined Labour.
Strengths: Matt McCarton running Auckland is going to be Labour’s best chance to turn Auckland into their fortress and there is a huge Pacific Island vote that is looking for real expression.
Weaknesses:Labour’s conceit to try and be a nationwide Party will still see it waste resources in the provinces that won’t vote for them. Labour’s future is urban, younger, browner and far more female, if those groups help win Auckland for Labour, they will want real voice and not more tokenism. Matt Mccarton should be on the phone to Efeso Collins right now.
Greens: The Greens have put together one of the best candidate pools of any Political Party in the country. Chloe Swarbrick, Hayley Holt, Sam Taylor and Leilani Tamu are all bright new political stars and it shows the Greens have dived deeply into a new wave of millennial activists who are hungry and passionate to be heard so expect a real turn out in younger voters there. Barry Coates and Marama Davidson are beloved by the activist community and deeply trusted. The danger for the Greens this time around is from Gareth Morgan. The Greens have had to go to the centre on environmentalism to not spook the vested interests of Dairy, Morgan doesn’t give a toss about upsetting those interests and he will probably have a far more radical green policy than the Greens. . They will bleed votes to his Party but they will pick up younger blood. They would be happy with 12.5% in 2017.
Strengths: Young, far more tech savvy than Labour and more likely to benefit most from social media.
Weaknesses: The Greens are shit at selling the sizzle, and seeing as their sausage is a vegan patti, they really have to lift their game on comms and strategy because it’s been pretty woeful to date. Remember that they hired Ruminator, the ‘trolls troll’, as their comms and strategy person for Christ’s sake. This is a guy who personally threatened to reveal information about me online because I didn’t want to be mates with him, that was the head of strategy for the Green Party ffs. It’s like putting the PSA Comms team from Wellington in charge of a Labour Party membership drive. How could individuals who are so alienating in their policing of language and identity win over anyone? It’s not the message of the Left that is problematic, it’s the deeply flawed messengers the Left keep hiring to spread that message This ability to get the Green message out will be even more difficult if Morgan is brandishing a more radical climate change platform. Water down the policy wonk and increase the feelings-o-meter.
NZ First: Winston wants to be the King maker and feels he can replicate the attack on National’s home front the way he did with Northland. The anger from the productive sectors of the economy who aren’t seeing the re-investment in local infrastructure has breached boiling point and National MPs are feeling the heat.
Strengths:Winston will use the Superfund to invest directly into the infrastructure so his promises will carry the promise of reality. These are the National voters who will turn against National so NZ First will advance not to Labour’s loss but to National’s.
Weaknesses:The Party internally is riven by political rivalry and jockeying for position post Winston. At some point the forces within the Party that dumped Tracey Martin as Deputy will challenge Winston on his Leadership.
Maori Party: As TDB predicted, the Maori Party and MANA Movement are going to work together in the Maori electorates. This has every opportunity to create a number of interesting MMP ramifications. If the Maori Party win 6 electorate seats but little Party vote they could create an overhang in Parliament and if MANA brings in 1.4% along with Hone’s seat, he brings in a second MP. Losing so many electorates for Labour would also mean that they would bring those MPs in off the Labour Party list.
Strengths:Tukoroirangi Morgan and Marama Fox have proven to be incredible assets to date. Morgan has been a far more savvy and smart political strategist than anyone could have guessed and Fox has brought genuine admiration for her Leadership.
Weaknesses:The problem the Maori Party have is bridges with which to get to NZ First and Labour, this is why they desperately need a candidate like Willie Jackson to stand for them in the Maori Auckland electorate. If he stands it will create a hype that swamps Labour while ensuring the ability to work with Labour and NZ First afterwards.
ACT: I won’t mention him by name because when you do a fairy somewhere has a stroke, but God he’s awful. He’ll win because the Stormtrooper’s of Epsom want it. ACTs Party vote will remain limp and National could lose so many seats his plus one won’t make a difference. Ugh. I’ve thrown up a bit in my mouth just having to think about him. He’s like an unblinking lizard about to feed.
Strengths: Shapeshifting and the ability to drink own bodyweight in blood.
Weaknesses:Lack of all basic human empathy, (although he sees this as an incredible strength).
United: I think that it was despicable that Peter Dunne made Helen Kelly a criminal by denying her medicinal cannabis. That is a disgrace he should never be allowed to live down, alongside his vote to allow mass surveillance (after being a victim of it himself) and stopping the feeding the kids Bill. This bow-tied arsehole is in desperate need of wiping. His electorate has more civil servants than any other electorate, let’s hope they do the right thing by Helen Kelly and vote this miserable old goat out of Office. I want people in his electorate to walk around with signs reading ‘Remember Helen Kelly when you vote’. She deserved better than he gave her and he deserves the political consequences of such petty spite. He could have been empathetic to Helen’s condition, and he wasn’t. Screw him.
Strengths: Nice bowtie.
Weaknesses:Has the same hair as Donald Trump
PARTY WILD CARDS:
The Opportunity Party: Gareth’s solution based policy will actually come across far more radical than Labour or the Greens policy platforms. Morgan has spent a huge time educating and learning about challenges like Universal Basic Income, affordable housing, climate change and pollution. He will appeal to urban males who default vote to National because they feel no welcome from Labour or the Greens. That on its own is enough to peel voters off National, Greens and bring some of the disconnected million voters who don’t vote because of the poor choices on offer by the two major parties to give him 5%.
MANA Movement:If Hone can beat Kelvin and with the Maori Party directing their voters to support Hone, MANA could win an electorate and bring in one more MP off their Party list. Annette Sykes could yet be an MP.
The Conservative Party: The interesting thing about the defamation case between Colin Craig and Jordan Williams that the media haven’t picked up on yet is that the Judge has still not accepted and entered the Jury decision and it is within her power to actually over turn the ruling if she thinks the Jury got it wrong. Compare the actual evidence with the version the media ran with and the decision the Jury ultimately came up with and the result bore little resemblance to he evidence. With a decision still pending on that, Colin takes his defamation cases against Stringer and Slater next year. If Craig can win legally he could still stand and the Conservatives could take even more votes off National.