With just 12 months until the 2017 election, where are we at and where will we be going into the 2017 election?
OVERVIEW:
The National Party of NZ still holds an unprecedented lead in the polls. No other political party in modern history has ever enjoyed so much support, but like the 2014 and 2011 election before that, the tipping points are deceptively close and no one can guarantee National a fourth term. The Opposition need to rally their bases, pull in some of the missing million AND win over National voters. It won’t be easy, but this election will be held in the shadow of populist anger sweeping Trump and Brexit to power, so anything is possible.
POLITICAL PARTIES:
National: John Key remains the smiling assassin who has won over NZ with his laid back casualness that calms Kiwis. He can say black is white and white is black because information overloaded voters don’t feel he’s looking down on them.
Strengths: John Key remains National’s main selling point, without him National are the same self interested bunch of born to rule rich pricks they’ve always been.
Weaknesses: After mass surveillance lies and dirty politics, voters are giving Key the green light to do what he likes to stay in power as long as their inflated property bubble illusion of wealth is allowed to keep growing. The second it pops watch people turn on National with vengeance. National has a real challenge in the provinces from NZ First playing off the lack of investment and from the urban educated voters who will be lured by Gareth Morgan’s promise of solution based policy.
Labour: If Labour want to be the backbone of the next Government they need to be in the early 30s and the only way they are going to do that is play to their strengths in Auckland. A huge 2 tick campaign has to be pushed in Auckland and no Labour Party MP should be saying anything other than ‘Houses for first time buyers, 6 months parental leave and Living Wage’. Labour’s greatest support is from working people, women, Pacific Island and Maori voters and first time affordable homes, a living wage and better parental leave are the issues that those voters can immediately identify with and budget weekly. Those are tangible benefits in their every day life.
Strengths: Matt McCarton running Auckland is going to be Labour’s best chance to turn Auckland into their fortress and there is a huge Pacific Island vote that is looking for real expression.
Weaknesses:Labour’s conceit to try and be a nationwide Party will still see it waste resources in the provinces that won’t vote for them. Labour’s future is urban, younger, browner and far more female, if those groups help win Auckland for Labour, they will want real voice and not more tokenism. Matt Mccarton should be on the phone to Efeso Collins right now.
Greens: The Greens have put together one of the best candidate pools of any Political Party in the country. Chloe Swarbrick, Sam Taylor and Leilani Tamu are all bright new political stars and it shows the Greens have dived deeply into a new wave of millennial activists who are hungry and passionate to be heard so expect a real turn out in younger voters there. Barry Coates and Marama Davidson are beloved by the activist community and deeply trusted. The danger for the Greens this time around is from Gareth Morgan. The Greens have had to go to the centre on environmentalism to not spook the vested interests of Dairy, Morgan doesn’t give a toss about upsetting those interests and he will probably have a far more radical green policy than the Greens. . They will bleed votes to his Party but they will pick up younger blood. They would be happy with 12.5% in 2017.
Strengths: Young, far more tech savvy than Labour and more likely to benefit most from social media.
Weaknesses: The Greens are shit at selling the sizzle, and seeing as their sausage is a vegan patti, they really have to lift their game on comms and strategy because it’s been pretty woeful to date. This will be even more difficult if Morgan is brandishing a more radical climate change platform. Water down the policy wonk and increase the feelings-o-meter.
NZ First: Winston wants to be the King maker and feels he can replicate the attack on National’s home front the way he did with Northland. The anger from the productive sectors of the economy who aren’t seeing the re-investment in local infrastructure has breached boiling point and National MPs are feeling the heat.
Strengths:Winston will use the Superfund to invest directly into the infrastructure so his promises will carry the promise of reality. These are the National voters who will turn against National so NZ First will advance not to Labour’s loss but to National’s.
Weaknesses:The Party internally is riven by political rivalry and jockeying for position post Winston. At some point the forces within the Party that dumped Tracey Martin as Deputy will challenge Winston on his Leadership.
Maori Party: As TDB predicted, the Maori Party and MANA Movement are going to work together in the Maori electorates. This has every opportunity to create a number of interesting MMP ramifications. If the Maori Party win 6 electorate seats but little Party vote they could create an overhang in Parliament and if MANA brings in 1.4% along with Hone’s seat, he brings in a second MP. Losing so many electorates for Labour would also mean that they would bring those MPs in off the Labour Party list.
Strengths:Tukoroirangi Morgan and Marama Fox have proven to be incredible assets to date. Morgan has been far more savvy and smart political strategist than anyone could have guessed and Fox has brought genuine admiration for her Leadership.
Weaknesses:The problem the Maori Party have is bridges with which to get to NZ First and Labour, this is why they desperately need a candidate like Willie Jackson to stand for them in the Maori Auckland electorate. If he stands it will create a hype that swamps Labour while ensuring the ability to work with Labour and NZ First afterwards.
ACT: God he’s awful. He’ll win because the Stormtrooper’s of Epsom want it. ACTs Party vote will remain limp and National could lose so many seats his plus one won’t make a difference. Ugh. I’ve thrown up a bit in my mouth just having to think about him. Like an unblinking lizard about to feed.
Strengths: Shapeshifting and the ability to drink own bodyweight in blood.
Weaknesses:Lack of basic human empathy.
United: It was despicable that Peter Dunne made Helen Kelly a criminal by denying her medicinal cannabis. That is a disgrace he should never be allowed to live down, alongside his vote on mass surveillance and stopping the feeding the kids Bill. This bow-tied arsehole is in desperate need of wiping. His electorate has more civil servants than any other electorate, let’s hope they do the right thing by Helen Kelly and vote this miserable old goat out of Office. I want people in his electorate to walk around with signs reading ‘Remember Helen Kelly when you vote’. She deserved better than he gave her and he deserves the political consequences of such petty spite. He could have been empathetic with Helen’s condition, and he wasn’t. Screw him.
Strengths: Nice bowtie.
Weaknesses:Has the same hair as Donald Trump
PARTY WILD CARDS:
The Opportunity Party: Gareth’s solution based policy will actually come across far more radical than Labour or the Greens policy platforms. Morgan has spent a huge time educating and learning about challenges like Universal Basic Income, affordable housing, climate change and pollution. He will appeal to urban males who default vote to National because they feel no welcome from Labour or the Greens. That on it’s own is enough to peel voters off National, Greens and bring some of the disconnected million voters who don’t vote because of the poor choices on offer by the two major parties to give him 5%. But Morgan could ignite a populist move against the neoliberal welfare State while selling the UBI to those beneficiaries who currently live in terror of WINZ, Housing NZ, MoD, CYFs, Probations, Corrections etc etc etc. Morgan will be our anti-establishment candidate and he has a real chance to do something unique here.
MANA Movement:If Hone can beat Kelvin and with the Maori Party directing their voters to support Hone, MANA could win an electorate and bring in one more MP off their Party list. Annette Sykes could yet be an MP.
The Conservative Party: The interesting thing about the defamation case between Colin Craig and Jordan Williams is that the Judge has still not accepted and entered the Jury decision and it is within her power to actually over turn the ruling if she thinks the Jury got it wrong. With a decision still pending on that, Colin takes his cases against Stringer and Slater next year. If Craig can win legally he could still stand and the Conservatives could take even more votes off National.