2016-01-31

Failure to perform an accurate, reality-based risk assessment is one of the most common mistakes people make. Biases of all kinds get in the way, and lead people down a path of distraction, impracticality and obliviousness. Impulsive, bad decision making instead of thoughtful, methodical planning.

What is risk assessment? It's the process of identifying and prioritizing risks.

On a more concrete level, you step back and ask yourself a few questions:

What am I trying to do?

What could break/go wrong/interfere?

How severe would it be?

How likely is it to happen?

For an example, let's look at a fairly common activity -- commuting in your vehicle. Let's outline some common risks:

Motor vehicle accident

Dead battery

Run out of gas

Car jacking attempt

Flat tire

Vehicle immobilized due to conditions (bad weather, impassible road conditions)

Attacked by a mob of rioters or crazy bikers

Once we have our risks identified, we want to identify the big ones. Do that by triangulating the magnitude of the impact (will get you killed vs. inconvenience) and the likelihood of the risk occurring (common vs. very rare).

At that point, you have your risk assessment in hand.

Now, you can get to work on putting controls and plans into place to avoid or at least mitigate the effects of those risks should they occur. Your most severe / most probable risks should take precedence, but don't ignore the others.

These controls can take the form of activities or habits that you perform -- for example, always filling up your tank when you get below 1/2. Or they can take the form of physical preparations and gear--in the commuting example, that would mean carrying jumper cables, a jack and spare tire, gas can, trauma kit and so on.

A few other examples of some common activities, risks and controls:

Task: Family security and safety at home

Risks and controls:

Home invasion / armed robbery

Sturdy doors and locks, and the habit of always locking the doors

Alarm system (and habit of using it)

Dog

Home defense guns (accessible quickly, and training / mindset to use)

Family plan

Fire

Smoke alarm

Fire extinguisher

Family plan / evac routes

Homeowner's / renter's insurance

Off-site backups of important documents / data

Household accident

First aid kit and training

Emergency contact numbers

Family plan

Natural disaster

Designated safe room

Fire extinguisher

Comms gear (back up cell phone, weather radio, HAM radio if licensed)

Stored food and water

Family plan and evac practice

Bug out bags aka 72 hour kits and other survival supplies

Evac routes and destination planned

Task: Family security and safety outside the home

Armed attacker(s) (robbery, active shooter, kidnapping attempt, road rage, etc.)

Concealed carry license and handgun (carried regularly)

Firearms training

Self defense training

Anti-kidnapping / escape training for family

Trauma kit, flashlight, knife and other tools

Practice situational awareness

Avoid high threat areas and situations

Family plan

Vehicle accident

Trauma kit and training

Self-extraction tools within arms reach

Drive defensively and avoid driving in terrible conditions

Buy vehicles with good safety ratings / keep them in good condition

Natural disaster

Get home bags and supplies in vehicles and/or some basics in EDC gear

Situational awareness

Communications gear

Family plan, rendezvous points and evac plans

Task: Provide for family financially

Job Loss / loss of income (normal economy)

3 month emergency fund

Both spouses work (or are able to)

Maintain network of business contacts

Multiple income streams

Alternate skills

Unemployment insurance

Live within means and minimize debt

Food storage and other stores at home

Economic crash / banking system collapse

Cash on hand

Precious metal holdings / other 'tangible' investments

Food storage

Food production ability

Off-grid capabilities (power, water, etc.)

Ability to switch to 'barter' economy -- valued skills or production ability

Health problem / inability to work

Emergency fund and savings

Health insurance

Disability insurance

Both spouses work (or are able to)

Passive income streams

Live within means and minimize debt

You'll note that many of the "controls" are good for more than one risk -- those are smart ones to focus on.

You can get more specific or less specific than the risks above; focus on a very specific task or mission, for example. Here's another:

Task: Travel from home to bug out/evac location during time of emergency

Vehicle becomes stranded or stuck (congestion, road conditions, bad weather, EMP)

Travel in a group of 2+ vehicles

Drive 4x4s with off-road tires, winch and tow straps (less likely to get stuck)

Alternate routes planned (avoid getting stuck)

Maintain situational awareness

Alternate transportation (dirt bike and ATVs)

Have on-foot routes planned and packs for the journey

Bridge over river is impassible

Alternate routes planned (alternate bridge 15 miles away)

Plan to leave vehicles and float / swim across river

One vehicle to have inflatable raft in case of crossing

Attacked en route to location

Travel in group of 2+ vehicles

Take tactical driving course

Training and response plan (e.g., drive through at high speed if possible, else bail out from vehicles and engage)

Weapons and support gear in vehicles

On-foot routes planned / bags for the journey in case vehicles must be ditched or become inoperable

Communications gear to call for support

Trauma kits

Plan routes through decent areas, including alternate routes

Situational awareness

Avoid the temptation to focus purely on extreme impact events that have an extremely low likelihood of happening. Our minds have a tendency to focus on those big, scary things and artificially inflate their perceived likelihood of happening--that one in a billion event can become a perceived near certainty overnight. Devoting too much time and resources to any one extreme long shot event can be unbalancing, unhealthy and counterproductive.

There is also the idea of "risk acceptance," which is simply recognizing the risk exists but not taking any actions to control or mitigate that risk. You may choose not to take action because of cost, resources, laziness, acceptance of impact should the risk occur or your judgment on how likely the risk is to occur.

People do the risk acceptance math all the time, whether consciously or not. They live in hurricane zones but have zero in the way of emergency supplies, they say things like "if the crap hits the fan, I guess I will just die," or maybe they'd just rather spend their time and resources on fun and leisure. To each their own.

Corporate, government and military planning is full of risk assessment -- it's used by business execs planning expansion into new regions, NASA for planning missions into space, and spec ops units gearing up for a direct action raid against a terrorist cell.

Think through the eventualities, plan and prepare for the bad things that can happen.

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