The first draft of Queensland’s new state electoral map was released this morning, after a broad outline was leaked last night.
The redistribution is the first in almost a decade, and the redistribution will see four additional seats created in the Assembly. The combination of these factors has meant that the changes are quite dramatic.
Five new seats have been created, while two inner-city seats have been merged.
At least three prominent MPs face a significantly tougher task in winning re-election. Labor minister Steven Miles and LNP frontbencher Scott Emerson represent neighbouring seats of Mount Coot-tha and Indooroopilly. The two seats have both been abolished and replaced by the seat of Maiwar – a seat with a margin of approximately 2.8% for the LNP. They now face the choice of a tough contest or looking for a safer seat elsewhere.
Shane Knuth, a member of Katter’s Australian Party, represents Dalrymple in north Queensland. That seat has been broken apart, with a majority of the seat going into the new seat of Hill – but only 60% of that seat is areas previously contained in Dalrymple.
There are eighteen seats, including Hill and Maiwar, where the incumbent MP currently represents less than 70% of their new seat’s population.
The five new seats are Bancroft, in northern Brisbane; Bonney, on the Gold Coast; Jordan, in the Ipswich area; Macalister on the Gold Coast-Logan boundary and Ninderry on the Sunshine Coast. Some would count Hill as a new seat, but I think it’s an obvious successor to Dalrymple.
Numerous seats have been renamed, with the Commission moving away from the norm where state electorates are named after localities. The Commission instead chose to name a dozen seats after distinguished Queenslanders, following the practice of the Australian Electoral Commission, who traditionally name seats after people. The range of individuals selected for this honour are more diverse than those with federal electorates named in their honour – less politicians, and a lot more women.
This map shows the old and new Queensland state boundaries – red represents the 2009-2015 boundaries, while green represents the draft boundaries released today. Below the map I’ve also posted my own estimates of the margin in each seat. I’m sure others will do more precise analysis, but I thought I should nail my colours to the mast and post my own estimates.
Seat
Margin
Seat
Margin
Pumicestone
ALP vs LNP 50.2%
Whitsunday
LNP vs ALP 50.7%
Pumicestone
ALP vs LNP 50.2%
Whitsunday
LNP vs ALP 50.7%
Mansfield
ALP vs LNP 50.6%
Hill
LNP vs KAP 50.8%
Bundaberg
ALP vs LNP 50.8%
Tibrogargan
LNP vs ALP 51.4%
Maryborough
ALP vs LNP 50.8%
Toowoomba North
LNP vs ALP 51.6%
Mount Ommaney
ALP vs LNP 51.1%
Redlands
LNP vs ALP 51.8%
Springwood
ALP vs LNP 51.3%
Aspley
LNP vs ALP 52.5%
Mundingburra
ALP vs LNP 51.6%
Bonney
LNP vs ALP 52.6%
Cooper
ALP vs LNP 53.0%
Chatsworth
LNP vs ALP 52.7%
Barron River
ALP vs LNP 53.3%
Everton
LNP vs ALP 52.7%
McConnel
ALP vs LNP 53.5%
Maiwar
LNP vs ALP 52.8%
Keppel
ALP vs LNP 53.9%
Gaven
LNP vs ALP 52.8%
Mirani
ALP vs LNP 54.0%
Hinchinbrook
LNP vs ALP 53.7%
Ferny Grove
ALP vs LNP 54.4%
Caloundra
LNP vs ALP 54.7%
D’Aguilar
ALP vs LNP 55.1%
Theodore
LNP vs ALP 55.1%
Greenslopes
ALP vs LNP 55.3%
Lockyer
LNP vs ON 55.2%
Townsville
ALP vs LNP 55.7%
McMaster
LNP vs ALP 55.5%
Stretton
ALP vs LNP 55.7%
Burleigh
LNP vs ALP 55.6%
MacAlister
ALP vs LNP 55.9%
Clayfield
LNP vs ALP 55.7%
Thuringowa
ALP vs LNP 56.1%
Currumbin
LNP vs ALP 55.7%
Bulimba
ALP vs LNP 56.1%
Coomera
LNP vs ALP 55.9%
Capalaba
ALP vs LNP 56.2%
Oodgeroo
LNP vs ALP 56.1%
Logan
ALP vs LNP 56.2%
Hervey Bay
LNP vs ALP 56.5%
Murrumba
ALP vs LNP 56.5%
Kawana
LNP vs ALP 57.7%
Miller
ALP vs LNP 56.7%
Noosa
LNP vs GRN 57.8%
Cook
ALP vs LNP 56.8%
Burnett
LNP vs ALP 58.1%
Cairns
ALP vs LNP 57.5%
Moggill
LNP vs ALP 58.2%
Kurwongbah
ALP vs LNP 57.5%
Gympie
LNP vs ALP 58.6%
Redcliffe
ALP vs LNP 57.6%
Toowoomba South
LNP vs ALP 59.1%
Algester
ALP vs LNP 57.7%
Southport
LNP vs ALP 60%
Bancroft
ALP vs LNP 57.8%
Maroochydore
LNP vs ALP 60.4%
Toohey
ALP vs LNP 57.8%
Mudgeeraba
LNP vs ALP 60.7%
Nudgee
ALP vs LNP 58.6%
Mermaid Beach
LNP vs ALP 61%
Stafford
ALP vs LNP 58.9%
Gregory
LNP vs ALP 61.5%
Ipswich West
ALP vs LNP 59.0%
Scenic Rim
LNP vs ALP 61.7%
Jordan
ALP vs LNP 59.6%
Callide
LNP vs PUP 62.2%
Lytton
ALP vs LNP 59.6%
Broadwater
LNP vs ALP 62.8%
Mackay
ALP vs LNP 59.7%
Buderim
LNP vs ALP 63%
Sandgate
ALP vs LNP 59.8%
Warrego
LNP vs ALP 65%
Morayfield
ALP vs LNP 61.5%
Condamine
LNP vs ALP 66.9%
Gladstone
ALP vs IND 62.6%
Nanango
LNP vs ALP 67.4%
Mulgrave
ALP vs LNP 62.8%
Southern Downs
LNP vs ALP 69.2%
South Brisbane
ALP vs LNP 63.5%
Surfers Paradise
LNP vs ALP 69.6%
Rockhampton
ALP vs LNP 63.9%
Ninderry
LNP vs ALP 71.4%
Waterford
ALP vs LNP 64.4%
Ipswich
ALP vs LNP 65.2%
Inala
ALP vs LNP 69.7%
Woodridge
ALP vs LNP 74.1%
Nicklin
IND vs LNP 57.0%
Bundamba
ALP vs LNP 74.5%
Traeger
KAP vs LNP 65.8%