Increased competition among green building rating systems, the rise of net-zero buildings, and a sharper focus on existing structures are among the trends that will drive sustainability through 2020.
In my forthcoming book, “Reinventing Green Building,” I identify 10 megatrends that I believe will shape green building technologies, markets, government rules, and certification systems through 2020 and beyond.
The strength of a megatrend is that we can’t wish it away; it’s here to stay. The key issue is how to take advantage of it. In the realm of technology, the turn to mobile computing after the introduction of the iPhone in 2007 and the iPad in 2010 is clearly such a trend, one that building owners and green building proponents cannot ignore.
Globally, green building will likely continue its worldwide growth, especially in most countries of Europe and North America, as well as in fast-growing countries in the Asia-Pacific region, South America, and the Middle East. Each year, more government agencies, universities, property developers, and corporate real estate managers incorporate green design ideas and measures into their buildings and facilities. There is nothing on the horizon that will stop this megatrend.
It’s worth noting that five of these 10 trends revolve around energy: energy efficiency, zero-net-energy, cloud-based (and data-driven) energy management, energy performance disclosure, and solar power. These are largely impelled by two practical considerations: first, for most buildings, energy is the largest uncontrollable operating cost; second, the growing understanding of a connection between building energy use and global climate change means that corporate social responsibility and government action will result in rising demand for building energy efficiency.
1. GROWTH RATE OF GREEN BUILDING CERTIFICATION IS SLOWING DOWN.
Green building in North America, Europe, the Middle East, and Asia-Pacific will continue to grow as more building owners come to accept the business case, especially for larger office buildings, corporate real estate, and high-end university and government buildings. Green building project registrations accounted for about 20% of total new construction project area in the U.S. during 2014 (but only about 15% of actual certifications). The 2015 Green Building Adoption Index documents the continued strength of both Energy Star and LEED certification in the U.S. commercial office market.
However, in contrast to the new construction market, the 2014 tally of less than 200 million sf of existing building certification represents an annual increment of only 0.2%. At the end of 2014, the U.S. total for LEED certifications remained abysmally low—about three billion sf, or about 3.6% of the 85 billion total area of existing commercial buildings.
Slower growth of green building certification in new construction doesn’t mean that important elements of sustainable design are being ignored. My point is that certification as a practice is increasingly falling by the wayside. This has implications for both certification organizations and sustainability in the built environment.
2. ENERGY EFFICIENCY LEADS THE WAY.
Since 2012, energy-efficient green building retrofits have shown stronger growth than energy-efficient new construction. This trend has been most pronounced in corporate and commercial real estate, along with “MUSH” (municipal, university, school, and hospital) market projects. In the MUSH market, cheap capital and the emergence of energy service companies (known as ESCOs) have encouraged building owners to trade future energy savings for upgraded or modernized physical plants. (The federal government equivalent, Energy Service Performance Contracts, chose 16 national vendors in 2012 for $85 billion of work for government agencies.)
In The World’s Greenest Buildings: Promise vs. Performance in Sustainable Design, I made the case that absolute building performance, with resultant lower operating costs (vs. the currently more common “relative improvement” approach) is going to be an increasing focus for green building.
There are huge opportunities in energy efficiency, and most are concentrated in 25% of the building stock. A more cost-effective approach to certifying existing buildings should also attempt first to take advantage of the concentrated nature of efficiency opportunities by launching a rating system tailored for such buildings and their key performance indicators.
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