By most any measure, the Internet has been wildly successful. From its beginnings over 40 years ago,
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To help explain the situation, imagine a city that is growing so rapidly that all the telephone numbers in the city’s single area code are nearly used up. There are four ways telephone companies can handle this problem:
Historically the most frequently chosen option has been the last. Despite the disruption new area codes cause,
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The Internet is now facing a similar situation, with roughly similar options. The Internet’s current numbering system is limited to approximately 4.3 billion numbers. Today, the organizations that hand out those numbers are allocating around 300 million numbers,
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The Internet can stop growing;
"Private extensions" can be added to addresses;
Allocated but unused addresses can be recovered,
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The total number of addresses can be expanded.
The first option isn’t being considered: the Internet has become too important for growth to stop, particularly given only 2 billion of the world’s 7 billion people are connected to the Internet. The debate is whether the Internet should be upgraded to have more addresses or will a combination of private extensions and recovering unused addresses be sufficient for future connectivity needs.
The option that appears to be the most appealing in the short term would be the use of private extensions. In the Internet, something like private extensions are implemented by a set of technologies known as Network Address Translation or NAT. NAT translates a single "public" address into thousands of "private" addresses on the fly. Like connecting to a telephone switchboard,
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Unfortunately, a NAT facilitated world is one in which innovation would be constrained to what the network providers would allow. When the Internet was first being put together, few if any believed the network would grow to its current size and little thought was given to conserving addresses. It seems logical, albeit against Internet tradition,
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However,
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The final option,
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However, in addition to some evolutionary improvements to the Internet’s underlying technology, IPv6 provides for 340 undecillion addresses, or 340 followed by 36 zeros, a number, it is said,
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Just as the Internet disrupted the then existing data networks,
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As the remaining pools of unused IPv4 addresses are exhausted and obtaining additional IPv4 addresses becomes difficult and costly, Internet users will see additional products and services that facilitate the transition to IPv6, allowing the Internet to continue to grow. As such, the challenge facing the Internet isn’t so much managing the transition to IPv6, rather it is avoiding the allure of short term market based solutions aimed at extending the life of IPv4 past its "sell by" date.