ST. LOUIS (KMOX) – We used to worry that “Big Brother” was watching us. In the future, will authorities simply predict what we’re about to do? This week, KMOX News looks at predictive analytics.
In TV dramas such as Person of Interest, a computer flags crime before it happens—down to the person involved.
“That would need such perfect storm of data,” explains Emily Blackburn, Manager of the Crime Analysis Unit with the St. Louis Police Department. Blackburn tells KMOX to have enough data to point to an individual, that person’s probably already in jail. Yet police agencies across the country are using software that helps them analyze past criminal activity and project into the future. Blackburn is quick to point out, it’s focused on geography—not human beings—and even that is limited.
Blackburn says she creates hot spot maps, by gathering crime data. “Not only what we’re currently looking at, or the crime levels that we’re looking at, but also what we’re historically seeing in the upcoming week or two, so hopefully that catches seasons changing, upcoming events.” She says the benefit of using predictive analytics is being able to put beat cars in the right place at the right time. But it’s only so exact. The best predictions are limited to within a few miles. For example, “as it becomes warmer the area around Washington University we might have more bicycle thefts, but it’s really harder to drill down much further than that.”
Blackburn adds, knowing where crimes historically happens is something good investigators have always been tuned in to – computers just make it more precise.
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