You could watch baseball for a million years and still find yourself constantly surprised by the impossible moments that suddenly become reality. Nearly four years later Cardinals fans still buzz about the breathtaking comeback in Game Six of the 2011 World Series, but truthfully, those kinds of miracles happen on a daily basis in this insane and magical game.
Another miracle occurred last night. The Cubs, perennial National League laughingstocks for most of the last century, shocked the Pirates with a 4-0 win in a do-or-die Wild Card game in Pittsburgh. The sudden-death victory propelled the Cubs into the NLDS to meet their greatest rival and inspiration, the St. Louis Cardinals. The unlikeliest matchup in the history of baseball will actually happen in the real world starting tomorrow night at Busch Stadium. We will finally know what it is like for these two storied franchises to battle each other for postseason glory, finally feel baseball’s oldest rivalry heating up the chilly October air.
No matter the outcome, it’s amazing to see it happen in my lifetime.
I grew up watching the always-intense clashes between the Cardinals and Cubs during the eighties (like this classic from 1984). Regardless of the standings throughout the years, these two teams always produced tough, unrelenting games when they met each other. These weren’t ballgames, they were science experiments. Chemical reactions. Red acids and blue bases mixing uneasily in the stands. A game between the Cardinals and Cubs is always combustible, explosive.
And now it will explode in the postseason for the first time. Incredible. Two great baseball cities are about to rock the baseball world with a postseason series to remember.
Can the Cardinals defend their decade of dominance against the threat of an upstart Cubs squad? The Cubs are young, talented, hungry, and red-hot right now. It’s a mistake to dismiss them. However, the Cardinals probably have the edge at this point. Here’s a position-by-position breakdown:
CATCHER: Yadier Molina returns from a torn ligament in his left thumb. However, can he play? Nobody seems to know his actual ability level at this point, but he’s the best catcher in the game when healthy. Meanwhile, Miguel Montero is an offense-first catcher with solid ability, but he isn’t Yadi. ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS
FIRST BASE: Anthony Rizzo is one of the great young corner infielders in the game today, a potent blend of defense and power. The Cardinals don’t have an answer for Rizzo. Stephen Piscotty is likely to start there, but we don’t know what he can do as an everyday first baseman. Beyond Piscotty, it’s Mark Reynolds and Brandon Moss – no contest. ADVANTAGE: CUBS
SECOND BASE: Starlin Castro has moved to this position after several seasons at shortstop, and it seems to suit him. Since he moved there on August 12th, Castro is hitting .356/.376/.593 and actually appears to be paying attention to the game for the first time in his career. Castro has been a big part of the engine driving the Cubs in the second half. In contrast, Kolten Wong has often looked lost in a troubled sophomore season. Wong has explosive talent, but right now Castro’s heat gets the nod. ADVANTAGE: CUBS
SHORTSTOP: Former second baseman Addison Russell has a lot of talent, and the Cubs are hoping it will somehow translate as Russell moves to shortstop. So far, the move has been serviceable (.245 average) but unspectacular. On the other hand, Jhonny Peralta has had another solid defensive season coupled with some good offensive numbers (.275, 17 homers). Peralta is still one of the better shortstops in the game. Peralta was cold down the stretch, but I’d still take him over Russell. ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS
THIRD BASE: Had it not been for two fatigue-tainted months early this summer, Matt Carpenter would probably be a top three MVP candidate. Oddly, Carpenter’s numbers (inflated with a jaw-dropping 28 home runs) are very similar to heralded Cubs rookie third baseman Kris Bryant. Carpenter might have an edge here based on his experience and importance to his team, but the advantage is slight. ADVANTAGE: EVEN
LEFT FIELD: Is Matt Holliday healthy? If he is, then Holliday easily beats virtually any left fielder in the game, including the impressive Kyle Schwarber (or Chris Coghlan). Health is the real issue here, but I think Holliday is close enough to be dangerous. Hopefully Holliday can overcome his bewildering postseason problems and finally contribute more than lineup presence. ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS
CENTER FIELD: Cubs center fielder Dexter Fowler had a tremendous wild card game, but he is largely a replacement-level outfielder coming into his own on a young team. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are likely to start Randal Grichuk in center. Grichuk is better than Fowler, but Grichuk may not be completely healthy. Tommy Pham and Jon Jay will support Grichuk; Pham has a lot of promise but little proof, and Jay is a useless appendage waiting to be excised. If Grichuk is healthy, I I give the Cardinals the edge. But I don’t think Grichuk is close to 100%. ADVANTAGE: CUBS
RIGHT FIELD: The Cubs have employed multiple players in right field this season, but none have made much of an impression. Jorge Soler, Kyle Schwarber, and Chris Coghlan have all put up solid numbers there. However, none of them can match the lethal blend of defense, speed, and power that Jason Heyward brings to the Cardinals. After a slow start, Heyward has been one of the team’s best hitters in the second half. I expect some Heyward magic this October. ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS
ROTATION: The Cardinals’ rotation was one of the very best in baseball this season; they have the lowest ERA by a postseason-bound rotation in more than 25 years. Sadly, the most electric arm of the bunch (Carlos Martinez) has been lost for the season due to (you guessed it!) injury. With John Lackey, Jaime Garcia, Michael Wacha, and Lance Lynn, the Cardinals have a strong four-man front line. The Cubs, on the other hand, have the game’s best pitcher right now (Jake Arrieta) throwing the baseball like a man possessed. They also have another postseason ace in Jon Lester. Beyond that, it’s all prayers and duct tape for the Cubs. I give the Cardinals the advantage only because Arrieta can pitch just once in this series. ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS
BULLPEN: Until September, the Cardinals bullpen was virtually impregnable. Then fatigue settled in, and Trevor Rosenthal, Kevin Siegrist, and Seth Maness suddenly looked much more human. I’m guessing the extra rest will help all three of them. Also, the inclusion of Adam Wainwright will give this bullpen and new, more formidable look. For the Cubs, Hector Rondon (30 saves) and Justin Grimm (1.99 ERA) had excellent seasons, but it’s a grab bag beyond that. And I also won’t choose the Cubs bullpen until Pedro Strop learns to properly wear his baseball cap. ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS
MANAGER: Both Mike Matheny and Joe Maddon deserve Manager of the Year consideration for their work in 2015. However, they couldn’t be any more different. Maddon is a Tony La Russa-like manager of strategy and mind games, and Matheny … well, he goes with his instinct. Somehow, these two different captains have steered their ships to the same harbor. I think I’m giving the edge to Maddon, although it’s the slightest possible advantage. ADVANTAGE: CUBS
HOW TO BEAT THE CUBS
The Cardinals aren’t likely to out-slug the Cubs (5th in NL in home runs), so their pitching needs to keep games close as it did most of this season. The Cardinals need to be aggressive at the plate early in counts, disrupting the Cubs staff and breaking their rhythm. The Cardinals also need to be aggressive on the bases, pushing the hit-and-run and forcing a nervous, error-prone Cubs infield to throw the ball away. The Cardinals have the postseason experience here. They need to use that experience to their advantage.
PREDICTION: Cardinals in five.