Analysis
No conference title, but what about a national title?
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That an unbeaten Notre Dame team would reach the College Football Playoff is not up for debate — not given the Fighting Irish's regular-season schedule, which, though not quite as loaded as in the recent past, remains loaded with prime-time opportunities for national exposure.
Whether Notre Dame can get into the Playoff with one loss, on the other hand, may hinge on factors largely outside the program's control.
Notre Dame wide receiver Will Fuller
(Photo: Brian Spurlock, USA TODAY Sports)
Begin with what the Irish can control, however. Matchups with Georgia Tech and Clemson present the opportunity to burnish their cause at the expense of the Atlantic Coast Conference; if Clemson goes on to win the ACC, for example, the selection committee would have to give heavy consideration to Notre Dame's head-to-head advantage.
Likewise in the Pac-12 Conference. It's well within the realm of possibility that USC and Stanford — the former coming to South Bend on Oct. 17, the latter playing host on Nov. 28 — end up atop their respective divisions and meet in the conference title game. As in the ACC, the Irish would have the ultimate tiebreaker in Playoff discussions.
Notre Dame can control its own place in the conversation; this is not an overwhelmingly daunting schedule, as noted, and provides breath-catching moments in September, October and November — even as that midseason matchup against Navy, preceding USC, provides cause for concern.
Notre Dame quarterback Malik Zaire
(Photo: Christopher Hanewinckel, USA TODAY Sports)
Elsewhere, however, one-loss Notre Dame can only hope for a degree of chaos. It's extremely likely that there will be at least one unbeaten or one-loss team from a major conference. It's probable that two such teams will exist, based on recent history. Other conferences may not be so fortunate.
The top-heavy nature of the Big 12 Conference may yield multiple teams tied atop the standings with two losses. Likewise in the Southeastern Conference, even if that league hasn't yielded a two-loss conference champion since LSU in 2007. Given the depth and parity seen in the Pac-12 South Division, a team — such as USC, if not one of three other prime contenders —– could finish 10-2 in the regular season and defeat one of Stanford or Oregon in the title game.
So the formula for Notre Dame is simple — and shared with countless other title-hungry programs in the Football Bowl Subdivision: win and you're in. When it comes to the Irish, however, it may take more than one loss to squeeze Brian Kelly's team out of the Playoff.
Projected order of finish
(With 1-128 ranking)
1. Notre Dame (No. 21)
2. Brigham Young (No. 38)
3. Army (No. 118)
Trivia question
No googling allowed
By reading this sentence, you have agreed to a strict no-Googling rule in finding your answer.
Notre Dame began playing football in 1887. Army's first season came in 1890. BYU christened its program in 1922.
Can you name the single season in which these three schools combined for the most victories?
Best case, worst case
Each team's range of possibility
Notre Dame
Best case: The Irish lose just once, to Clemson in early October, and squeeze into the fourth spot in the College Football Playoff.
Worst case: Losses to Texas, Georgia Tech, Clemson, USC and Stanford.
Brigham Young
Best case: After early losses to Boise State and UCLA, the Cougars roll off eight victories in a row to end the regular season at 10-2.
Worst case: BYU feasts on the weak slice of its schedule but fails to notch a single win of national consequence in an 8-4 regular season.
Army
Best case: Army beats Navy.
Worst case: Navy beats Army, as does everyone else.
Preseason All-Independent team
The best at each position
BYU wide receiver Mitch Mathews
(Photo: Steve Mitchell, USA TODAY Sports)
Offense
QB: Taysom Hill, BYU
RB: Tarean Folston, Notre Dame
RB: Adam Hine, BYU
WR: Will Fuller, Notre Dame
WR: Mitch Mathews, BYU
TE: Durham Smythe, Notre Dame
OL: Ronnie Stanley, Notre Dame
OL: Nick Martin, Notre Dame
OL: Tejan Koroma, BYU
OL: Kyle Johnson, BYU
OL: Steve Elmer, Notre Dame
Defense
DL: Isaac Rochell, Notre Dame
DL: Sheldon Day, Notre Dame
DL: Travis Tuiloma, BYU
DL: Bronson Kaufusi, BYU
LB: Jeremy Timpf, Army
LB: Jaylon Smith, Notre Dame
LB: Joe Schmidt, Notre Dame
CB: KeiVarae Russell, Notre Dame
CB: Cole Luke, Notre Dame
S: Max Redfield, Notre Dame
S: Elijah Shumate, Notre Dame
Specialists
K: Trevor Samson, BYU
P: Alex Tardieu, Army
RET: Adam Hine, BYU
Best units
Position by position
Quarterback: BYU. If he can remain healthy — and this has been an issue — I think Taysom Hill can make a run at the Heisman Trophy.
Running back: Notre Dame. The Irish are by no means loaded in the backfield, but Jamaal Williams' decision to withdraw from BYU hands Notre Dame the edge by default.
Wide receiver and tight end: Notre Dame. This is a very solid group, led by Will Fuller, and should make Malik Zaire's transition into a full-time starting role fairly seamless.
Even with a season-ending injury to Jarron Jones (94), Jaylon Smith (9) and the Notre Dame defense looks formidable.
(Photo: Mark J. Rebilas, USA TODAY Sports)
Offensive line: Notre Dame. The line will improve despite losing two starters and one key reserve. As we'll touch on below, left tackle Ronnie Stanley is a strong candidate for national hardware.
Defensive line: Notre Dame and BYU (tie). Notre Dame would have stood alone before nose tackle Jarron Jones' season-ending injury. The Irish have far more overall talent and depth up front than BYU, but the Cougars' line will get the job done.
Linebacker: Notre Dame. It's a solid group from top to bottom, but Jaylon Smith's presence gives Notre Dame one of the nation's elite linebackers and overall defenders.
Secondary: Notre Dame. He'll need to shake off some rust, but cornerback KeiVarae Russell may give Notre Dame an All-America stopper on the outside.
Special teams: BYU. Notre Dame's special teams are a potential weak link. The Cougars aren't world-beaters, but Adam Hine is dangerous in the return game.
Video
What to watch for
USA Today Sports' Paul Myerberg breaks down college football's independents, including the game of the year and which player is going to break out in 2015.
Fact check
Tidbits, notes and numbers
Since Brian Kelly's arrival in 2010, Notre Dame is 42-7 when it has more than 30 rushing attempts. The correlation between those two numbers may be a little slim — because teams tend to run the ball in the second half of victories, for example — but it's a fact to consider.
The Irish haven't won a true road game since topping Air Force on Oct. 26, 2013. Though Notre Dame went 4-0 in neutral-site games last fall, the program is just 11-9 in true road games under Kelly.
And no one fact spells boom or bust for Kelly's teams than this: Notre Dame is 25-1 under his direction when winning the turnover battle and 12-16 when not. You'd expect that, obviously, but not to such an extreme degree.
Army coach Jeff Monken
(Photo: Danny Wild, USA TODAY Sports)
Only one active FBS independent program ranks among the top 10 in total victories during the past 40 seasons — and no, it's not Notre Dame. That would be BYU, which ranks fifth in the nation during this span with 354 wins. The Cougars trail only Nebraska (389 wins), Ohio State (366), Florida State (365) and Oklahoma (365).
BYU is also one of 12 FBS teams to earn a bowl bid in each of the past 10 seasons, joining Florida State, Virginia Tech, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Oklahoma, LSU, Boise State, Wisconsin, Alabama, Clemson and Oregon.
Jeff Monken's four-win debut at Army might not seem like much, but consider this: The four-win total the Cadets' most in a season since 2010, for starters, while only one other Army head coach in the past 35 years has won more games in his first season — Rich Ellerson, Monken's predecessor. Jim Young, perhaps Army's best coach Red Blaik, went 2-9 in his first year, while Bob Sutton started with a 4-7 season.
National award candidates
Best of the best
Notre Dame offensive lineman Ronnie Stanley (78)
(Photo: Matt Cashore, USA TODAY Sports)
Heisman Trophy: Taysom Hill, BYU. It's easily forgotten amid his season-ending injury, but let's remember the strides Hill made as a passer before being lost for the season last October. If that continues, Hill should be one of the nation's best quarterbacks, period.
Davey O'Brien Award (best quarterback): Hill. For the same reasons as above. Hill is also in the running for the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award, given to the nation's best fourth- or fifth-year quarterback.
Biletnikoff Award (best wide receiver): Will Fuller, Notre Dame. For some reason, Fuller's enormous growth between his freshman and sophomore seasons got lost in the national shuffle. It stands to reason that he'll be even better as a junior, even if Zaire's ascension to the starting role might lead to a very slight decline in production.
BYU's do-it-all Adam Hine
(Photo: Kelley L Cox, USA TODAY Sports)
Outland Trophy (best interior lineman): Ronnie Stanley, Notre Dame. He has every single measurable you'd want from your left tackle, from size and length through simple on-field production.
Butkus Award (best linebacker), Bednarik Award and Nagurski Award (defensive player of the year): Jaylon Smith, Notre Dame. By year's end, Smith might be viewed as the best linebacker in college football and the best defender in college football — and one of the best players in college football regardless of position.
Jim Thorpe Award (best defensive back): KeiVarae Russell, Notre Dame. That he's been away for a season makes Russell a bit of a wild card, but the potential that accompanied his start at Notre Dame should translate to 2015.
Paul Hornung Award (most versatile player): Adam Hine, BYU. While he's already a weapon on special teams, Jamaal Williams' offseason departure will give Hines additional touches in the running game.
Superlatives
Most likely to ...
Have 1,000 yards receiving: Will Fuller, Notre Dame and Mitch Mathews, BYU (tie). Fuller hit the mark a year ago, but there's always a slight chance that the quarterback change leads to a dip in receptions and receiving yards. On the other hand, Zaire might make Fuller the focus of his attention; in that case, bet on an uptick in production. Mathews, the Cougars' top target, should benefit from a healthy Taysom Hill.
BYU quarterback Taysom Hill
(Photo: Russ Isabella-USA TODAY Sports)
Throw for 3,500 yards: Taysom Hill, BYU. Not to say Zaire can't make a run at this mark, but Hill is the safer bet.
Have 1,000 yards rushing: Tarean Folston, Notre Dame and Joe Walker, Army (tie). It'd take about 200 carries for Folston to crack the 1,000-yard mark; I'm not sure if Brian Kelly will call his number that often. Any number of running backs and fullbacks could take the lead in Army's running game, so Walker is just a guess.
Be a first round pick in 2016: Jaylon Smith and Ronnie Stanley, Notre Dame (tie). Both Smith and Stanley have NFL scouts drooling. Smith in particular is a once-in-a-few-years sort of talent at linebacker.
Finish in the top 25 nationally in yards gained per game: BYU. Finishing in the top 25 in this category with a healthy Hill under center seems close to a certainty.
Finish in the top 25 nationally in yards allowed per game: Notre Dame. Injuries along the defensive line are worrisome, but this is a supremely talented and athletic group.
Lead the nation in rushing: Army. We had to give the Cadets a little love. Last year's rushing attack ranked sixth nationally in yards per game; this year's group, a year more experienced in Jeff Monken's system, should be even better.
Exceed expectations: Brigham Young. If everything comes together, BYU can get to 10 wins in the regular season and finish inside the top 15 nationally.
Disappoint: Notre Dame. Well, by default. There's ample history at our disposal to suggest that a Notre Dame team praised in the offseason will falter once the calendar turns to September.
Returning starters
The numbers, team by team
Ranking the starting quarterbacks
One Heisman candidate, or two?
Not every program in the conference has a clear-cut starter in advance of fall camp. Bonus points for those schools without a major competition, let alone those with an accomplished and trustworthy returning starter.
1. Taysom Hill, BYU. Not to belabor the point, but again: If healthy, Hill is one of the nation's most electric quarterbacks.
2. Malik Zaire, Notre Dame. At the very least, look for Zaire to do a far better job than his predecessor, Everett Golson, when it comes to protecting the football. In addition, he brings the sort of leadership qualities often lacking at the position during the past few seasons. Depth is clearly an issue, but a healthy Zaire should be a steadying force for the Irish offense in 2015.
3. A.J. Schurr or Ahmad Bradshaw, Army. Injuries prevented Schurr from participating in spring drills, which gave Bradshaw, a sophomore, an opening in pursuit of the starting job. This might not be decided until the final practices of fall camp. Neither inspires enormous confidence, but each would be a fine option.
Top newcomers
Plus potential breakout players
Notre Dame WR Torii Hunter Jr. He has the ability to play three different positions for the Irish, meaning Hunter brings a degree of versatility otherwise unseen on the Notre Dame offense.
Notre Dame DT Jerry Tillery. The true freshman was going to play anyway, but Jones' season-ending injury means Tillery will log substantial minutes as either a starter or one half of a starting rotation along the interior.
Notre Dame LB James Onwualu
Army fullback Matt Giachinta
(Photo: Danny Wild, USA TODAY Sports)
. A safety as a freshman, Onwualu heads into his junior season as the clear-cut starter on the strong side. Onwualu will get lost in the shuffle behind Jaylon Smith and Joe Schmidt, but he's a steady contributor on the second level.
BYU WR Nick Kurtz. I thought Kurtz was going to make a major impact a year ago, but injuries cost the junior-college transfer all but the first game of the regular season. He's going to join Mitch Mathews to give BYU a terrific one-two punch at receiver.
BYU LB Harvey Langi. One year after returning from his mission, Langi seems far more comfortable in a lead role at inside linebacker. Another two names to watch: Sae Tautu and Sione Takitaki are in the running on the weak side, where BYU lost would-be starter Troy Hinds to a hip injury.
Army FB Matt Giachinta. Either Giachinta or Aaron Kemper will get the lion's share of touches as the Cadets' fullback.
Army S Rhyan England. The defense as a whole is desperate for playmakers. The front seven is at least one year away from its potential, but England brings big-play potential to the back end.
Games of the year
The Independents' appointment viewing
Boise State at BYU, Sept. 12. A victory would boost BYU's credibility and deal Boise State's access-bowl hopes a cruel blow, which would allow the Cougars to kill two birds with one stone.
Georgia Tech at Notre Dame, Sept. 19. I think Georgia Tech is once again getting overlooked nationally despite last year's 11-win finish. Luckily, the Irish sandwich a date with the Jackets' running game with matchups against Virginia and Massachusetts.
Army quarterback A.J. Schurr (11) looks deep in last season's Army-Navy Game.
(Photo: Tommy Gilligan, USA TODAY Sports)
BYU at Michigan, Sept. 26. Believe it or not, a trip to Michigan will be BYU's easy test in September.
Notre Dame at Clemson, Oct. 3. Think about this: Notre Dame can not only notch another impressive win by defeating Clemson, but potentially get a tiebreaker against the eventual ACC champion once the selection committee meets for the last time in early December.
USC at Notre Dame, Oct. 17. Playing USC is one thing, but playing USC one week after Navy is not an enviable scenario.
BYU at Utah State, Nov. 28. I think both teams will enter the final weekend of the regular season either inside or just on the outskirts of a national ranking.
Notre Dame at Stanford, Nov. 28. I'm a big believer in what Stanford can achieve in 2015. Again, both teams will be in the national conversation come the end of November.
Army vs. Navy (in Philadelphia), Dec. 12. The final game of the regular season may also be the most meaningful.
All-time All-Independents team
Best of the best
For the efforts of this exercise, let's play under the following rules:
College football has been around for a long, long time — so long, in fact, that it would be virtually impossible to complete an all-independent team and remain a viable and sane member of our society. But there's good news.
Technically, the term "independent" wasn't coined until 1978, with the advent of the NCAA's Division I. Problem solved: This list merely includes players from teams that carried an independent tag at any point from 1978 until today.
It's still more teams than you think. Notre Dame was and is an independent, but a number of programs played without conference affiliation during the past 37 seasons: Florida State, Penn State, Miami (Fla.), Syracuse, Virginia Tech and West Virginia, to name a few. So it's still a hard task; it's just merely not as hard as it could've been. Small victories.
The same rules apply. Only players from independent teams will be considered. Those who began or ended their careers on independent teams but otherwise were members of a conference will be considered for the years during which they tasted their greatest individual success. You know how this goes by now.
Trivia answers
The payoff
The question, in shortened form: Can you name the season in which Army, Notre Dame and BYU combined for the most victories?
The answer is 1996, with 32 victories. Army went 10-2, still the only season with double-digit wins in program history — though not by a long shot the best team in school history, of course. Notre Dame finished 8-3 in its final season under Lou Holtz. BYU, meanwhile, went 14-1 under LaVell Edwards and a senior quarterback named Steve Sarkisian. That was then the first 14-win season in FBS history.
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