The countdown in on until the tape goes back on Tuesday for the opening day of the Cheltenham Festival. For this preview I’m giving a selection in the four championship races plus some others to look out for over the four-day festival of racing.
Championship Races
Tuesday:
PETIT MOUCHOIR: (Champion Hurdle) – Best Price: 6/1
It should be three from three this season but for this six year old coming to grief in the Fighting Fifth when going well and just edging into the lead. Henry de Bromhead has found the key to him after getting him from Willie Mullins following the Gigginstown fallout and you feel he’ll make his presence felt in a race of this nature.
The Fighting Fifth has proved a good trial in recent years for the Champion Hurdle and the winner of that race placed here at Cheltenham between 2011-2014. With the way he was travelling you have to feel he would have won that race if not falling.
He’s since won twice at Leopardstown when making the running. He was triumphant in the Irish Champion Hurdle in January where he galloped all over Nichols Canyon and proved he can dig deep by holding off a fast finishing Footpad.
Even though the front-running tactic isn’t one to usually suit Cheltenham he has stamina in his pedigree to suggest he’ll get up the hill and the way he kept going in the Irish Champion Hurdle adds to that argument. Given the make up of the race there isn’t an obvious threat to challenge him for the lead, so the grey is likely to dictate the pace and then hold them all at bay.
Last year’s Neptune second Yanworth is the current favourite after making it a perfect three from three since November when winning the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton. You can’t crib his form but his jumping can be a little untidy and in a race of this status against some of these opponents it could mean to losing ground at a vital stage in a race. Mark Walsh gets the leg up following an injury to Barry Geraghty that has ruled him out of the festival.
Nicky Henderson’s pair Buveur D’Air and Brain Power are separated in the market by the selection. The former had two goes at chasing earlier in the campaign and despite winning both he didn’t look best suited to the larger obstacles just yet, so reverted back to hurdles. No horse has come back over hurdles and gone on to win a Champion Hurdle, so that trend is against him.
Brian Power is one Henderson has been talking up in recent weeks. The way he won a novice hurdle at March last season suggested there was a bit of quality about him because he did plenty wrong but still won cosily. He’s come into his own it’s fair to say and he showed a good turn of foot to win at Ascot in December. However horses that haven’t ran in the same calendar year as the festival have a poor strike-rate, so that could be against him and he didn’t run particularly well on his only visit to this track in the past even though he has matured a lot since.
If the expected ground turns up as good then you’d favour Brian Power over Buveur D’Air of the Henderson pair.
At bigger prices it is worth pointing out Ch’Tibello, a Scottish Champion Hurdle winner last season and was only a length behind Yanworth in the Kingwell last month. Dan Skelton’s inmate has since had a wind operation, which means we could see more of him in his finishing effort if all has gone to plan. His owners have spoke confidently on his chances in recent days but he’d need to take a big step up if wanting to reverse the form with Yanworth.
Footpad has been behind Petit Mouchoir on the last two starts but is definitely a candidate to run into the frame. It was a strong finishing effort in the Irish Champion Hurdle and the winning distance was diminishing after the turn for home, so if they go a good pace early on it could play into the hands of a closer and this five year old would be a likely player because of that. You have to respect anything Willie Mullins sends to the race having won it four times since 2011 and despite five year olds having a poor win record they have been hitting the frame in recent renewals and he can add to that stat here.
Wednesday:
GOD’S OWN: (Champion Chase) – Best Price: 3/1 w/o Douvan
Douvan is unbeaten since joining Willie Mullins in 2014. He’s a dual Festival winner having won the Supreme in 2015 and Arkle last year.
He should win this but the two questions are: 1) How far? 2) Who finishes second?
So this preview is looking at the market ‘Without Douvan’.
God’s Own is a consistent type and even lowered the colours of the ill-fated Vautour in April.
Tom George’s runner just looks the most solid up against Douvan and won’t have to worry about the two horses that finished in front of him in the Tingle Creek with Un De Sceaux likely to be Ryanair bound and Sire De Grugy ruled out.
That was a good effort for him because he hasn’t handled Sandown well in his few visits to the course before. Despite making a bad mistake in that contest he wasn’t beaten all too far and a replication of that effort should see him leading the field home once Douvan has romped up the hill.
Fox Norton has won three times over course and distance and one of them came after moving from Neil Mulholland to Colin Tizzard.
He eased home in by a comfortable margin in the Shloer Chase and then had it all to do up against Altior in the Game Spirit Chase last time.
In races where he has faced Douvan they’ve tried a mixture of tactics. In last year’s Arkle they raced him prominently before being inconvenienced slightly and finishing third. At Aintree in the Maghull they held him up and he was never really on terms, so was a well-beaten third that day too.
This seven year old does enjoy is around here but my preference is for God’s Own.
Special Tiara is more miss than hit these days and Henry de Bromhead will have had to have waved his magic wand to see him finishing in the frame.
He’s now a ten year old and although he won a very weak Desert Orchid Chase age does seem to be catching up with him. There are a few sprightly types in this and they could leave him behind.
Thursday:
SNOW FALCON: (Stayers Hurdle) – Best Price: 16/1
The World Hurdle has reverted to its old name under new sponsors SunBets and Unowhatimeanharry ticks all of the boxes for the race, so is a worthy favourite.
We know he handles the course and distance after winning last season’s Albert Bartlett when powering home under Noel Fehily.
He’s gone from strength to strength this winter and fits all the trends for winners of this race. He won two of the key trials in the Long Distance Hurdle and Cleeve Hurdle by a combined total of over seven lengths and those who he beat re-oppose here.
However I’m attracted to Snow Falcon for Noel Meade, who would have gone close in the Long Distance Hurdle if not falling three out. He cruised into contention that day in a slow gallop and if they go at a decent clip that should help his jumping.
He was second to Shaneshill in the Galmoy Hurdle in January and was staying on under pressure after the last but wasn’t going to pass the Mullins horse. In a bigger field with a stronger pace it’ll see him travel much better and the Cheltenham track will arguably suit him after winning at Navan and Listowel in the past.
This son of Presenting would have pushed Unowhatimeanharry close at Newbury and with plenty of factors likely to suit his running style in this race he seems to be a forgotten horse in this race.
Cole Harden won this race in 2015 and he could be somewhere back to his best after two placed efforts in the Relkeel and Cleeve Hurdle here at Cheltenham.
Warren Greatrex’s charge is likely to go from the front and it’s just a question of whether he’ll last home against some of these opponents but there is plenty of positive vibes from his yard regarding his chances.
Ballyoptic could be another one at a big price but at the time of writing a couple of factors are off putting. Firstly he is likely to belt at least a couple on his way round, which will check valuable momentum, plus his trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has been out of form of late. He saddled his first winner since Ballyandy, in the Betfair Hurdle back on February 11, today at Sandown (March 10).
Vroum Vroum Mag still holds an entry, so can’t be discounted because we know of her quality and versatility. It’s also worth noting that Colin Tizzard has spoken about his preference for West Approach in this race. For me he’d have a better chance in the Albert Bartlett but this half-brother to Thistlecrack looks to have been campaigned with a festival run in mind with the amount of visits to the course.
Friday:
CUE CARD: (Gold Cup) – Best Price: 4/1
There are plenty against him mainly because no 11 year old has won the Gold Cup since Mandarin achieved the feat back in 1962. It is a race where the older horses have struggled in recent years but there is still plenty of quality in this lovable veteran.
Who knows what might have happened last year if he hadn’t have fallen three from home when looking to be tanking along.
He’s looked as good as ever this season when winning the Betfair Chase and the Ascot Chase; the latter was done in style despite the weak nature of his opponents but the perfect build-up in terms of when the race came.
Bar that hiccup in last season’s showpiece he overall is a reliable jumper given that’s the only fall in his career.
He’s progressed from a Champion Bumper winner back in 2010, to a second in an Arkle and a Ryanair winner, so this would cement his place in Festival history.
Despite his age he still retains his enthusiasm and all the vibes surrounding him are positive, so he can go and re-write that little trend by proving age is just a number.
There is a list of absentees that include the last two winners Don Cossack and Coneygree plus Don Poli and the exciting Thistlecrack all miss out.
That gives it an open feel and one horse we know who will stay is Native River after his successes in the Hennessy Gold Cup and the Welsh Grand National, which are stamina sapping tests.
He won the Denman Chase as prep for the race seeing off two rivals; the more fancied Bristol De Mai ran flat that day.
The seven year old is another Tizzard representative and under Richard Johnson is likely to be amongst the early pace and at Newbury last time he proved he had a change of gears with the way he quickened in the closing stages.
In all Native River jumps for fun and stays, so ticks plenty of boxes for this sort of race, so is likely to be strongly supported.
With the defections this year it could prove to be the ideal opportunity for Djakadam who has finished second in the last two renewals behind Coneygree (2015) and Don Cossack (2016).
He’s a spring ground horse, so should be suited by the underfoot conditions because the dead ground in the Lexus Chase didn’t look to suit him despite staying on stoutly and finishing third.
The Willie Mullins charge looks to have had the ideal prep having had two runs in December and everything adds up to another bold showing.
Henry de Bromhead’s Champagne West has seemingly improved for the stable switch. He was with Phillip Hobbs last season but joined the Irish handler for this campaign.
He started his season with a third in the fog at Gowran but since then he’s gone from strength to strength.
The nine year old was joint top weight in the Thyestes but defied that when making all and overcoming one bad blunder in his jumping. Sometimes one mistake can knock a horses confidence but this one didn’t and this galloping sort can’t be discounted if running here.
He’ll challenge Native River for the lead, so they could light each other up and set a strong gallop, which might suit those in behind.
The son of Westener has plenty of course form when with Hobbs having won twice and two seconds to his name on visits here. He is one that has gone under the radar coming into the race and looks like an underrated outsider.
That’s the Championship races previewed, so here are a few other picks to look out for over the four days.
MOVEWITHTHETIMES: (Supreme Novices’ Hurdle) – Best Price: 8/1
The opening race of the festival has been even more interesting by the fact Ruby Walsh has chosen to ride Crack Mome instead of ante-post favourite Melon and on top of that the connections of Moon Racer have decided to have a tilt at the Champion Hurdle.
Melon has raced once for Willie Mullins and he won by 10 lengths but the stats don’t favour him in terms of only having one run plus the form of that race doesn’t look particularly strong.
He’s been the talking horse for a while now but I couldn’t be having him on known form and the price.
Ballyandy proved to be well treated when winning the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury and he is being tipped in places to follow that up here.
Last season’s Champion Bumper winner is likely to play a big part in the race and the way he travelled at Newbury suggests there is definitely more to come from this six year old.
However I prefer the second from that race Movewiththetimes for Paul Nicholls. He also travelled powerfully into contention and just failed to match the jumping of Ballyandy but he hung in the closing stages, which effectively cost him vital ground and potentially the race.
He does also hold an entry for the County Hurdle but it is worth noting that Mark Walsh has already been declared to ride this son of Presenting, so this looks to be the intended target and he could reverse form with Ballyandy here.
SINGLEFARMPAYMENT: (Ultima Handicap Chase) - Best Price: 12/1
Tom George’s charge is one to keep an eye on for the festival. He currently holds three entries, including in the RSA Chase, however his most likely engagement is the Ultima Handicap Chase on the opening day.
This seven year old has won on two of three outings at this venue showing he handles the stiff finish and its undulating nature. He was brought down in a Novices’ Handicap Chase here in January when fell fancied to run another good race. Now he’s learnt to relax he settles better into his races and he is one to have on side wherever he runs at the festival.
WESTERN RYDER: (Champion Bumper) – Best Price: 8/1
Daphne Du Clos would have been the pick here but she has been ruled out because of a setback, so Aintree may be on the cards for her.
Attention turns to Western Ryder for Warren Greatrex, who followed Daphne Du Clos home at Newbury last time.
In that race he dug deep and considering he was conceding 21lb of weight to the winner shows how well he ran despite never really threatening.
He’ll be suited by going left-handed here and deserves to take his chance in this contest after that creditable effort against the progressive filly. The way he won at Ascot the time before proved he has a touch of class about him.
DEATH DUTY: (Albert Bartlett) – Best Price: 9/4
Gordon Elliott’s six year old has taken to hurdles beautifully and he’s been impressive in the majority of his races.
Who knows what the result would have been when last seen with Augusta Kate coming down at the final flight when in contention but it kept his recorded unblemished.
He’s yet to run over three miles but the way he travels and finishes his race suggests it could actually bring further improvement out of him.
Elliott has said this test is ‘ready made’ for him and in time he’ll make an excellent chaser. This race has been the target for a while now and everything looks set for him to be one of the festival bankers.
LE PREZIEN: (Grand Annual) - Best Price: 12/1
Le Prezien does hold an entry in the Arkle but Paul Nicholls has already stated that Altior’s presence makes the race look one sided. That leaves this seven year old with a potential engagement in the festival finale – the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase.
He needs to bounce back after a disappointing effort in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles at Sandown where he didn’t look completely in love with the track and that proved with a lacklustre round of jumping. However he has already recorded a win around
Cheltenham when winning an Arkle Trial by four lengths, so we know he acts well on
the course.
If running here he would add some class to the race and with this likely to be a big
field they should go a good gallop, which will suit him. Paul Nicholls saddled the
winner of the contest last year, so I’d be expecting a big run because of the quality he
has against these handicappers.
The post Cheltenham Festival appeared first on Sport Tipster.