Here is an example case study of a day of PRE-MATCH FOOTBALL TRADING.
This is done by myself trading the prices during the day and hopefully this example will show how simple it can actually be. My view being that newbies often over complicate pre-match trading and also panic too quickly. I also want to show that the main principles of the Paper Chaser method from TFT still work just as good as they always have been.
This was recorded in August and it is a Champions League day and there are 6 matches this evening in the play offs. I have spotted 4 potential opportunities to get involved with. This is the method I am using on this and so I can not totally disclose everything that I am doing for obvious reasons.
Below are the 4 matches I am going to get involved in. For the simplicity of the case study, I will be using a £1000 stake on all these matches. On a normal day I may vary my stake depending on how confident I feel about certain trades and also the odds range but it is best to keep it simple for now.
For more info on how to spot these opportunities then you will have to consult the paper chaser method within Total Football Trading.
Matchday Morning
I open these trades on the morning of the match.
The indicators suggest that Arsenal are going to steam today. So I back them @ 2.62 with £1000.
The indicators suggest that FC Basel will STEAM today. So I back them @ 2.34 with £1000. Getting involved in prices above 2.20 can be a little bit dangerous and I definitely would not advise a beginner to do so.
The indicators suggest that Steaua Bucharest will DRIFT today. So I lay them @ 1.69 with £1000.
The indicators suggest that Schalke will STEAM today. I back them @ 1.44 with £1000.
Now I will return to these markets in the afternoon and check on my position. I know some like to check every hour but I am comfortable with every 2 hours as I know the moves against me are never going to be huge ones in the pre-match markets. I might also be more liable to panic if I spot a bad move against me when looking every hour and in some cases, “ignorance is bliss”.
Afternoon
A very solid move in the Arsenal match and thankfully I was on the right side of it. Arsenal have moved in from 2.62 to 2.42. Newbie traders may get excited at this and take the available profit but this is not the way to do it. There are still many hours to go till kick off and if Arsenal have moved this much already then it is unlikely they will move the other way now. I remain in this trade now comfortably knowing it is not likely I am losing money here and there could be more ticks available. Remember, if Arsenal now do reverse in price then I can still get out for pretty much zero loss.
However, just as things can go in my favour they can also quickly go against my favour. The Basel price moved unexpectedly against me from 2.34 out to 2.42. I make the decision to close this trade at this point as I feel I have got the wrong direction on this trade. This is quite close to my stop loss and there is no point waiting for it to hit my stop loss and lose even more. I take a -£41.33 loss on this match and this trade is over by the afternoon.
The Schalke trade is going to plan as they have steamed in 2 ticks from 1.44 into 1.42. I will leave this trade open as it is moving in the right direction and there could be more ticks to gain in this match.
The Steaua Bucharest trade has not moved anywhere as yet but there is still time. I often notice newbie traders give up on trades if they do not move anywhere but prices can move at anytime leading up to kick off.
Going forwards, I now have 3 trades open with the Arsenal one going very well. From here, I keep an eye on the prices once every hour to ensure nothing crazy happens.
Evening
In the early part of the evening I notice we finally have a move in the Steaua match and thankfully it is in my favour and quite a sharp one. I assume some team news must be breaking early somewhere. Anyway, this trade is now going well also and I will return an hour before kick off to finalise my positions and ensure team news does not swing the trades against me. Once again, I do not see the need to green up at this point as there is still plenty of time for the price to keep moving in my favour and for my profits to increase.
Close To Kick Off
This shows why it was worth remaining in the Arsenal trade as they did steam further and I completed the Arsenal trade with a move from 2.62 down to 2.34. This produced a profit of £110.17 which eclipses the earlier losing trade in the Basel match, an 11% return on my stake.
Despite the Schalke trade looking good earlier on the trade moved against me closer to the kick off. This could have been due to unfavourable team news but this is not worth dwelling on. I closed the trade as quickly as possible when I saw the price move against me as you have to cut the losers as short as possible. If you are not in a position of profit an hour before kick off then you probably never will be! This trade is £27.03 loss.
The Steaua Bucharest trade goes very well and I close it 20 minutes before kick off as the price seems to stall. In the end this was a drift from 1.69 to 1.85 which is a very nice trade and £86.48 profit is produced.
Summary
Overall, there were 4 trades entered on this day with 2 winners and 2 losers. The overall profit from these 4 trades was +£128.29.
The main thing I hope people learn from this is that you can clearly see that if you cut the losing trades short when they go against you and let the winning trades run out for as long as possible then it is not hard to profit even with a 50% strike rate like that. As you saw the profits from the winning trades were more then double the losses and if you keep this consistent then you do not need a high strike rate to profit long term.
If you keep an eye on the prices and get out of the trades when they begin going against you are going in the right direction. However, you also need to let winning trades run when they are going in the right direction. I think many newbies go wrong simply by taking profit too soon. This is all down to mindset and this will also be covered on the blog very soon.
Anyway, I hope you enjoyed this and I will hope to do another one very soon.
For more info on how to spot these opportunities then you will have to consult the paper chaser method within Total Football Trading.