Week twelve of the NFL season is here, and the playoff race is shaping up, it is this time of year when teams who are on the cusp of playoff contention need to start making their run towards the post season. We here at SportSmasher.com struggled Against The Spread (5-7-3) again in week eleven, but won Outright (8-7), which has been the way this season has gone. We also pushed three games last week, a new record, and just one short of our previous total for the season. Will our luck improve this week? Let’s find out:
BYE WEEKS: Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, Philadelphia Eagles, Seattle Seahawks
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (+9) The New Orleans Saints (8-2) are one of the best teams in the NFL, but they are a much better team at home (6-0) than they are on the road (2-2), and nobody will look forward to heading to the Superdome come playoff time. The Saints have the third ranked offense and the third ranked defense in the NFL, which is particularly impressive, considering they had statistically the worst defense in NFL history in 2012. While the Saints have not been as good on the road as they have been at home, the Falcons play in a dome like the Saints do, so they will not be outdoors and are used to playing on the turf. The Atlanta Falcons (2-8) have really struggled this season, due to several injuries to key players, and a total inability to run the football (31st in the NFL). Despite the Saints excellent record, they have not yet locked up this divisional race, as the Carolina Panthers are now the league’s hottest team and these two rivals still need to play twice this season. I am usually a fan of taking the points on Thursday night games, and taking the points when the Saints are on the road, but I do not give the Falcons much of a shot this Thursday. I think the Saints win this game by double digits easily.
THE PICK: Saints (-9) FINAL SCORE: Saints 27 Falcons 10
SPORTSMASHER BEST BET: Saints (-9)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns (-1) After an absolutely horrific (0-4) start to the 2013 season, the Steelers have turned it around somewhat, and are a respectable (4-2) since, bringing their overall record to (4-6). These two teams are part of a three way tie with the Baltimore Ravens for second place in the AFC North, all three have (4-6) records, and with the division leading Cincinnati Bengals sitting at (7-4), nobody has been totally eliminated from playoff contention yet. The loser of this game will be on their way out of the playoff picture. The Cleveland Browns have the fourth ranked defense in football, and I truly believe that they are a quarterback away from building a team capable of contending for the division title, and with two first round picks in the 2014 NFL Draft they have the assets to find one next offseason. The Steelers are just (1-4) on the road this season, and have struggled offensively, I am not sure how they will be able to move the ball against such a strong Browns defensive unit. In a game that I believe will be a low scoring tossup I think that Browns big-play receiver Josh Gordon will get behind the Steelers secondary and score a long touchdown, and the Steelers will struggle offensively. Taking the home team in a close one.
THE PICK: Browns (-1) FINAL SCORE: Browns 17 Steelers 13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions (-10) The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-8) are one of the worst teams in football, but they have managed two straight wins, and are at least no longer winless. Rookie quarterback Mike Glennon has some talent, and looks like he has a future in this league, and the Buccaneers potentially could have won three games in a row if Seattle did not come back to edge them in overtime. The Detroit Lions (6-4) seemed to have everything breaking right for them in the NFC North, as their two most dangerous divisional rivals each lost their quarterbacks to injuries (Aaron Rodgers – Packers, Jay Cutler – Bears), however the Lions could not extend their lead in the division last week after a bad loss to the Steelers in Pittsburgh where they blew a double digit lead late. The Bucs have yet to win a road game this season (0-4), while the Lions have been strong at home (3-1), I expect both of these trends to continue in Detroit this weekend. Detroit needs to win to keep their division lead, I think they get the win, but Tampa has been playing well and will keep it close enough to cover.
THE PICK: Buccaneers (+10) FINAL SCORE: Lions 27 Buccaneers 23
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers (-4) The Minnesota Vikings are one of the worst teams in the NFL (2-8) and have not won a road game all season, they have the 30th ranked defense in the league but will be playing against Green Bay Packers backup quarterback Scott Tolzien in this matchup. The Packers (5-5) were one of the league’s best teams, until MVP candidate quarterback Aaron Rogers went down with a shoulder injury, and they need this win to stay in contention until they get him back. The Vikings not only have the 30th ranked defense in the league, but also the 26th ranked offensive in the league and Christian Ponder has shown that he does not have the arm strength to move the ball through the air and complement running back Adrian Peterson. Tolzien was not awful for the Packers last week in a road loss to the New York Giants, but did throw a back-breaking interception that was returned for a touchdown by defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul, which put the game out of reach. I am not taking Tolzien as a favorite, even at home, and think his mistakes will continue to haunt Green Bay until Rogers can return.
THE PICK: Vikings (+4) FINAL SCORE: Vikings 20 Packers 17
San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs (-5) I am disappointed in the San Diego Chargers (4-6), they were a (4-3) team with momentum in their favor entering their bye week and I thought they had a shot at the sixth and final playoff spot in the AFC, but they are (0-3) since the bye and would need to go on a major run to get into the playoffs. They do have the eighth ranked offense in the NFL, but they have been doomed by the 27th ranked defense in the NFL, which has allowed their opponents to beat them in shootouts. This is a tough game for the Kansas City Chiefs (9-1), they are coming off of their first loss of the season in Denver last weekend, and may be looking past the Chargers to a rematch with Denver next weekend, this game is bookended by Denver on each side for Kansas City. I think that the Chiefs defense, which was leading the league in sacks until getting to the opposing quarterback just one time in the past three games, will find a way to pressure Phillip Rivers and will win this game. The point spread scares me off a bit, despite the fact that Arrowhead is such a difficult place to play and the Chiefs are unbeaten at home, the fact that Kansas City may be looking ahead to a rematch with Denver scares me off of the points.
THE PICK: Chargers (+5) FINAL SCORE: Chiefs 24 chargers 20
Chicago Bears @ St. Louis Rams (-1) Since the injury to Chicago Bears (6-4) quarterback Jay Cutler, backup quarterback Josh McCown has proven that he is talented enough and has enough experience in the Bears system to lead to team to victory, as he proved against the Ravens in overtime last week. A matchup to keep an eye on in this game will take place in the trenches, as brothers Kyle Long (defensive lineman, Rams) and Chris Long (offensive lineman, Bears) should mix it up head to head, and a sibling rivalry is always fun to watch. I think that the Rams (4-6) offense is getting far too much respect in this game, following a three touchdown game by rookie wide receiver Tavon Austin against the Colts the last time they played, Austin has not produced like that before and Kellen Clemens is still the Rams quarterback. The Rams offense is still ranked 27th in the league, while the Bears defense is ranked 23rd, and I expect even a Bears defense that I have been calling horrible all season will stop the Rams offense. The Rams defensive line will get a lot of pressure on McCown, but I think that wide receiver Brando Marshall and the Bears playmakers will do enough offensively to put up some points on the Rams, who I do not feel should be favored against anybody.
THE PICK: Bears (+1) FINAL SCORE: Bears 27 Rams 20
SPORTSMASHER BEST BET: BEARS (+1)
Carolina Panthers @ Miami Dolphins (+4) Last week I proclaimed that I would finally be the last one to jump on the Carolina Panthers (7-3) bandwagon, provided that they beat the Patriots at home on Monday Night Football, and that is exactly what they did. This spread is so low because Vegas thinks that this will be a letdown game for the Panthers, but I do not see that happening, nobody in the league is playing with as much momentum as the Carolina right now and they have won six straight games. The Miami Dolphins (5-5) are only a few bad losses (Tampa, Buffalo) away from being legitimate playoff contenders, and if they can get a win on Sunday, the team will be right back in the postseason mix. The Dolphins are down two of their best offensive lineman due to the Richie Incognito-Jonathan Martin bullying scandal, and an excellent Panthers defensive front should pressure Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill all day, despite the fact that Carolina will be missing defensive end Charles Johnson (sprained MCL). The Dolphins have the 24th ranked rush defense in the NFL, and I do not see how they will be able to move the ball on Carolina’s second ranked defense, unless they are able to hit a deep ball or two to Mike Wallace. Carolina gets another win and continues to chase the Saints for the NFC South title.
THE PICK: Panthers (-4) FINAL SCORE: Panthers 23 Dolphins 13
New York Jets @ Baltimore Ravens (-4) This is a huge game for both teams, as the winner will improve their chances of sneaking into the sixth seed in the AFC playoff race, while the loser will take a major step back. Only the Jacksonville Jaguars have been outscored by more points than the New York Jets (5-5) this season, and the Jets have not won or lost two straight games yet this season, and they are coming off of a loss last weekend. The defending Super Bowl Champion Baltimore Ravens (4-6) are somehow still alive in the playoff race as well, despite having the 30th ranked offense in the NFL, and a Super Bowl MVP quarterback who is not playing up to the level of his massive contract. The Ravens have the twelfth ranked defense in football, while the Jets are ranked seventh, so expect a low scoring dogfight in this game. The Jets have played above expectations this season, but they are (1-4) on the road, while Baltimore is (3-1) at home. I think the Ravens win, but by a field goal, so take the points.
THE PICK: Jets (+4) FINAL SCORE: Ravens 20 Jets 17
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans (-10) The Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9) are the worst team in football, but quarterback Chad Henne has been competent, and they have been competitive in several games this season. There is absolutely no way that the Houston Texans (2-8) should be favored by ten points anywhere against anyone right now, they have lost eight games in a row entering this contest, and are (1-4) at home this season including a loss to the Oakland Raiders last weekend. The problem for the Jaguars is that, statistically, the Houston Texans somehow have the best defense in football. I am not sure how the Jaguars will NFL worst offense will be able to move the football against the NFL’s best defense, so the Jacksonville will have to get a few lucky breaks in this game if they are going to beat the Texans at home, and if they do be looking for a full scale riot by Texans fans. The Texans turn the ball over often and mistakes have killed them this season, and could catch up to them again on Sunday. I am not going to pick the Jaguars to beat the Texans in Houston, but I would not be shocked if that happens, take the points.
THE PICK: Jaguars (+10) FINAL SCORE: Texans 21 Jaguars 16
SPORTSMASHER BEST BET: JAGUARS (+10)
Tennessee Titans @ Oakland Raiders (-1) The Tennessee Titans (4-6) were one of my sleeper teams entering the 2013 season, and I thought they were going to prove me right after a (3-1) start, however they are (1-5) since with their only win coming against the lowly St. Louis Rams. The Titans are not a bad defensive team, ranked ninth in football, but have struggled offensively and are ranked just 23rd in total offense. The Oakland Raiders (4-6) are actually underrated this season, they are the fourth ranked rushing offense in football, and quarterback Terrelle Pryor is good for at least one big play per game that swings momentum in the Raiders favor. The Raiders also have the sixth ranked rushing defense in football, which is bad news for the Titans, because if they are unable to get running back Chris Johnson going they struggle offensively. There is no way that a Raiders team which is playing with pride should be underdogs to the Tennessee Titans at home this season, Raiders win this one.
The Pick: Raiders (+1) Final Score: Raiders 23 Titans 20
Indianapolis Colts @ Arizona Cardinals (-1) The Indianapolis Colts (7-3) have been one of the best teams in the NFL this season, and they have their division locked up heading into this contest, but they have not had as easy a road as it might seem. The Colts have trailed and had to come from behind in each of their last three wins, and their three losses this season come at the hands of the Dolphins, Chargers and Rams. Not exactly the NFL’s elite. The Colts seem to play well against good opponents though, they have beaten the 49ers, Seahawks and Broncos, which will come in handy come playoff time. The Arizona Cardinals (6-4) are a sneaky good team that nobody is talking about, but they have an outside shot at the playoffs, due to an excellent defense. The Cardinals have the eighth rated defense in football, and the unit is loaded with playmakers, who give opposing quarterbacks and offensive coordinators nightmares while game planning. The Cardinals biggest weakness is an offensive line that has been decimated by injuries protecting a statuesque quarterback that appears to be washed up, but the addition of dynamic rookie running back Andre Ellington has revitalized the offense, he sat on the bench too long behind Rashad Mendenhall and is finally getting the chance to showcase his big-play ability. The Cardinals are (4-1) at home, and they know that they need to win this game to have a shot at the playoffs, the Colts do not need this game, and should easily win the division either way.
THE PICK: Cardinals (-1) FINAL SCORE: Cardinals 24 Colts 21
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (-3) The New York Giants (4-6) are looking to avenge a loss in Dallas in the opening Sunday Night Football game of the 2013 season, a game that the Giants felt that they should have won, and they suffered a loss that sent them into a (0-6) hole. The Giants have rebounded, winning four straight games, and although they are still not playing up to their potential (I think that’s due to issues along the offensive line), there is no doubt that they are one of the hottest teams in football and will be fired up for this game. The Dallas Cowboys (5-5) are coming off of a bye week and should be healthy entering this game, unfortunately this should not help their defense, which is the second worst in the NFL. These two teams are tied for 28th in the league with (77.0) rushing yards per game, expect a lot of offense through the air, and a lot of emotion between two teams with bad blood. The Giants were banged up early this season, and for the first time in 2013, every member of the team practiced this week. There is a chance that Tony Romo has a huge game passing to Dez Bryant and Jason Witten, and the Cowboys offense outscores the Giants in a shootout, effectively ending the Giants season. However, the Giants defense has been playing much better, and we have seen them go on runs like this under Tom Coughlin in the past. Giants win at home.
THE PICK: Giants (-3) FINAL SCORE: Giants 34 Cowboys 30
Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots (+3) I have to break one of my cardinal rules in this game, either never bet against Tom Brady at home, or never bet against Peyton Manning in a night game. Both of these teams are playoff bound this season, and I would not be surprised if Tom Brady and Peyton Manning square off again in the postseason, but we get to witness another one of their epic battles in New England on Sunday Night Football. The Denver Broncos (9-1) have the number one offense in football, Peyton Manning will likely be the league MVP, and his favorite wide receiver Wes Welker returns to New England to take on his former team in this game. The Broncos are coming off of a victory where they handed their divisional rival Kansas City Chiefs their first loss of the season, and they head to Arrowhead next weekend to try and lock up the division, so this game does not mean as much to them as it will to the Patriots. Do not get me wrong, both teams will be amped for this game, and it will be a fun one. The New England Patriots (7-3) are only the thirteenth ranked offense in football, and they have lost several key players on defense (Vince Wilfork, Brandon Spikes) which has caused them to be ranked nineteenth in the league defensively. However, the Patriots struggles have mostly been against the run, and Denver is much more of a passing threat. In what should be an exciting game, I think that the Patriots will want it more, and I will never bet against Tom Brady and Bill Belichick as home underdogs.
THE PICK: Patriots (+3) FINAL SCORE: Patriots 31 Broncos 30
San Francisco 49ers @ Washington Redskins (+5) This is a really bad matchup for the Washington Redskins (3-7) who have the 28th ranked defense in the NFL, as they try to stop the 49ers sixth ranked rush offense. Redskins quarterback Robert Griffin III has grown more confidence in his surgically repaired knee as the season has wore on, however he is still nowhere near 100%, the 49ers defense knows this and will be coming after him on Monday Night Football. The 49ers (6-4) will lose in the playoffs this season, because a team will eventually stuff their running game, and force quarterback Colin Kapernick to beat them which he will be unable to do. However, the Redskins cannot stop the run, and will be unable to do what is necessary to beat the 49ers. I expect the 49ers to frustrate RGII when the Redskins have the ball and to run the ball down the Redskins throats when they have the ball. 49ers dominate the Redskins in a dull Monday night game.
THE PICK: 49ers (-5) FINAL SCORE: 49ers 24 Redskins 17
WEEK ONE:
Against The Spread (6-9-1) Outright (6-10)
SportSmasher Best Bets (1-2) RexRated Best Bets (2-1)
WEEK TWO:
Against The Spread (7-8-1) Outright (13-3)
SportSmasher Best Bets (0-3) RexRated Best Bets (1-1-1)
WEEK THREE:
Against The Spread (7-8-1) Outright (11-5)
SportSmasher Best Bets (1-2) RexRated Best Bets (1-2)
WEEK FOUR:
Against The Spread (7-8) Outright (10-5)
SportSmasher Best Bets (2-1) RexRated Best Bets (0-3)
WEEK FIVE:
Against The Spread (5-9) Outright (10-4)
SportSmasher Best Bets (1-2) RexRated Best Bets (0-3)
WEEK SIX:
Against The Spread (5-9-1) Outright (10-5)
SportSmasher Best Bets (2-1) RexRated Best Bets (2-1)
WEEK SEVEN:
Against The Spread (6-9) Outright (9-6)
SportSmasher Best Bets (0-3) RexRated Best Bets (1-2)
WEEK EIGHT:
Against The Spread (6-7) Outright (11-2)
SportSmasher Best Bets (1-2) RexRated Best Bets (1-2)
WEEK NINE:
Against The Spread (4-9) Outright (7-6)
SportSmasher Best Bets (1-2) RexRated Best Bets (2-1)
WEEK TEN:
Against The Spread (10-4) Outright (9-5)
SportSmasher Best Bets (2-1) RexRated Best Bets (1-2)
WEEK ELEVEN:
Against The Spread (5-7-3) Outright (8-7)
SportSmasher Best Bets (1-1-1) RexRated Best Bets (2-0-1)
OVERALL:
Against The Spread (68-87-7) Outright (104-58)
SportSmasher Best Bets (12-19-1) RexRated Best Bets (13-18-2)