It’s the 20th anniversary of the UFC and the promotion has given fans a present for their loyalty. UFC 167 takes place Saturday night with one of the most anticipated fight cards in recent memory, headlined the greatest Welterweight in the promotion’s history Georges St-Pierre defending his UFC Welterweight Championship against his toughest challenger in some time, heavy handed wrestler Johny Hendricks. The undercard is also one of the best fight fans have been treated to in a long time, and includes Chael Sonnen vs. Rashad Evans and Rory MacDonald vs. Robbie Lawler among several other intriguing match-ups. I cannot wait for Saturday night, I have not been this excited for a card for a long time, no messing around this time let’s get to the picks:
Preliminary Card (Facebook/YouTube): Cody Donovan OVER Gian Villante, Sergio Pettis OVER Will Campuzano, Jason High OVER Anthony Lapsley
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports One): Erik Perez OVER Edwin Figueroa, Rick Story OVER Brian Ebersole, Thales Leites OVER Ed Herman, Donald Cerrone OVER Evan Dunham
Main Card (Fox Sports One):
Tim Eliot (10-3-1) vs. Ali Bagautinov (11-2) – Flyweight Bout - A former Kansas High School State Wrestling Champion, Tim Eliot started off his MMA career by going (0-2-1), he then rattled off eight consecutive wins until Jon Dodson ended his winning streak in Eliot’s UFC Debut. Since his winning streak was ended by Dodson, Eliot has rebounded nicely, winning two straight fights entering this match-up. Bagautinov is a former Russian Sambo champion, but he has competed in many styles of fighting before making his MMA debut, including Greco Roman and Freestyle wrestling and professional boxing. Bagautinov lost two of his first four MMA fights, but he is unbeaten since, and has won nine straight including his UFC debut against Marcos Vinicius. This should be an excellent first fight to open up the main card, the Flyweights often open the card up, because their lightning quick fight style gets fans amped up for the rest of the card. I think this bout will go to a decision, and in a close one, I like the Russian to win his tenth MMA fight in a row. THE PICK: Bagautinov By Decision
Josh Koscheck (19-7) vs. Tyron Woodley (11-2) – Welterweight Bout - UFC veteran Josh Koscheck’s wrestling pedigree is well documented, he was a former NCAA Division I wrestling champion while Edinboro University of Pennsylvania, and a four time Division I All-American. He got his start in the UFC in season one of The Ultimate Fighter, where he made it to the semifinals, and debuted with the promotion in 2005. Koscheck has had a lot of success in the UFC, but has lost three of his last five fights, including his last two in the octagon. Koscheck turns 36 years old later this month, and I am starting to question how much he has left in the tank, we will answer that question on Saturday when he squares off against Tyron Woodley. Woodley is also a former collegiate wrestler at the University of Missouri, where he was All-American. He previously competed in Strikeforce, where his only loss was to Nate Marquardt, in a bout to decide the Strikeforce Welterweight Championship. Woodley won his UFC debut by knocking out Jay Hieron in 36 seconds, then lost his second fight by split decision to Jake Shields, a fight which I had him winning. I question how much Koscheck has left in the tank, and while he is a better grappler than Woodley, I think Woodley is a more explosive athlete who is still hungry which will lead him to a victory. THE PICK: Woodley By TKO In The First Round
Rory MacDonald (15-1) vs. Robbie Lawler (21-9-1) – Welterweight Bout - The winner of this fight should be in line for a title shot against the winner of the main event on this card, however Rory MacDonald is Georges St-Pierre’s protege and claims he will not fight him, even if offered a title shot. Rory MacDonald has won five consecutive fights, the one blemish on his record came at UFC 115, when he lost to Carlos Condit by way of a TKO in the final seconds. After the fight it was revealed that, if MacDonald hung on for a few moments longer, he would have secured a split decision victory and would still be unbeaten today. MacDonald is one of the first fighters to come up who was not trained in one dominant discipline, but rather training mixed martial arts, which has led to him becoming one of the most well rounded fighters in the UFC. MacDonald fights much like his mentor Georges St-Pierre, he has no weaknesses, and is excellent at taking away the things that his opponent excels at doing. It seems like Robbie Lawler has been fighting professionally forever, but he made his debut at just 19 years-old, and he is actually just 31 years-old today. Lawler had lost three of his final four fights in Strikeforce, but has had a career renaissance since returning to the UFC for the first time since 2004, and has won two fights in a row by convincing knockout. I think that Robbie Lawler has more power in his hands than any Welterweight on the planet, including number one contender Johny Hendricks, and he has the ability to end this fight at any moment with one punch. However, Rory MacDonald is so good at staying away from an opponent’s power, as he did against Jake Ellenberger in his last fight. I think that MacDonald stays away from Lawler’s power, picks Lawler apart with leg kicks and his jab, and wins a decision. THE PICK: MacDonald By Decision
Rashad Evans (19-3-1) vs. Chael Sonnen (29-13-1) – Light Heavyweight Bout - Two UFC veterans face off in what should be an excellent match-up, Chael Sonnen takes on Rashad Evans, in fight that could go either way. Chael Sonnen has lost three of his last six fights, however one of those losses was to Jon Jones, and the other two were to Anderson Silva. Sonnen is fighting the best of the best, and when you are constantly fighting elite competition, you are bound to take some losses. In Sonnen’s last fight, he submitted Shogun Rua with a guillotine choke in the first round, which ended a two fight losing streak. Rashad Evans is coming off of a split decision win over Dan Henderson, which ended a two fight losing streak, where he lost to Antonio Rogerio Nogueira and Jon Jones. Before that streak, the only loss of Evans career was to Lyoto Machida, and all three of his career losses have come with the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship on the line. Both of these fighters are excellent wrestlers, Sonnen has the advantage on the ground, and Evans has much better hands. For me, this fight comes down to which Evans shows up, Sonnen has excellent cardio and will try to wear Evans out and eventually finish him while exhausted, Chael is always ready for a fight and I do not think the same can be said for Rashad. Evans has had issues with his cardio before, but I think he will show up in excellent shape this weekend, and use his power advantage to finish Sonnen. THE PICK: Evans By TKO In The Second Round
Johny Hendricks (15-1) vs. (c) Georges St-Pierre (24-2) – UFC Welterweight Championship Bout - Georges St-Pierre is a UFC legend and the greatest Welterweight in the history of mixed martial arts, he has won eleven straight fights, and has not lost since 2007. However, he has never fought anyone quite like Johny Hendricks. A former four time All-American wrestler at Oklahoma State University, Hendricks is obviously one of the most talented wrestlers ever to fight in the UFC, and he has tremendous power in his left hand which he has used to knockout eight opponents. Hendricks is a notoriously tough fighter to game-plan against, because if you are too worried about the left hand, he takes you down with high level wrestling and pounds you, and if you are too worried about the takedown he will throw that hammer left hand and knock you out. We have seen him win fights with a fake double leg takedown, left hand combination that is a thing of beauty. We saw UFC legend Anderson Silva get knocked out this year, and the same could happen to Georges St-Pierre tonight, I would be much less surprised to see St-Pierre lose tonight than I was when Silva lost. In fact, I think Hendricks has a better chance to beat St-Pierre than anybody has in a long time, his skills present a problem to any opponent. Georges St-Pierre is a master game-planner, he is so good at making his opponents fight his fight, and taking the fight the way that he wants it to go. If an opponent tries to strike with St-Pierre, he circles away from their power and takes them to the ground, if an opponent tries to take St-Pierre down he picks them apart with strikes. I have heard that Georges spent a lot of time training his boxing for this fight, which would mean he would try to stay away from Hendricks power, and pick him apart while keeping the fight standing, but St-Pierre is so good everywhere that you never know what he will do. I am very close to picking Hendricks in this fight, but I cannot shake the feeling that if I do, I will be kicking myself while watching it as St-Pierre picks him apart for five rounds. I think that GSP will stay away from Hendricks’ power and use his jab to frustrate him, people discount Georges’ wrestling while matched up with Hendricks, but Georges is a proficient wrestler who can also take this fight to the ground. St-Pierre is such a smart fighter, I expect him to control the action and frustrate Hendricks while picking him apart for five rounds, ultimately winning a decision. I expect a war, and would not be surprised if it went the other way, if that happens we may even see the GSP/Anderson Silva super-fight we have heard rumors about down the road. THE PICK: St-Pierre By Decision
OVERALL RECORD:
Preliminaries (138-100-2) Main Card (121-72-1) Overall (259-171-3)
Main Events (31-7)
MMA PICKS RECORD (by event):
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Henderson -
Preliminaries (1-4) Main Card (4-2) Overall (5-6)
UFC Fight Night: UFC Fight For The Troops 3 -
Preliminaries (6-2) Main Card (3-2) Overall (9-4)
UFC 166: dos Santos vs. Velasquez III -
Preliminaries (6-2) Main Card (4-1) Overall (10-3)
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Shields -
Preliminaries (1-3) Main Card (3-3) Overall (4-6)
UFC 165: Gustaffson vs. Jones -
Preliminaries (5-3) Main Card (4-1) Overall (9-4)
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Teixeira -
Preliminaries (3-2) Main Card (4-2) Overall (7-4)
UFC 164: Henderson vs. Pettis -
Preliminaries (5-2) Main Card (3-2) Overall (8-4)
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs. Kampmann -
Preliminaries (4-1-1) Main Card (5-1) Overall (9-2-1)
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Sonnen -
Preliminaries (4-3) Main Card (3-3) Overall (7-6)
UFC 163: Aldo vs. Korean Zombie -
Preliminaries (4-3) Main Card (4-1) Overall (8-4)
UFC on Fox: Johnson vs. Moraga -
Preliminaries (4-4) Main Card (4-0) Overall (8-4)
UFC 162: Silva vs. Weidman -
Preliminaries (4-2) Main Card (1-4) Overall (5-6)
UFC 161: Evans vs. Henderson
Preliminaries (2-4) Main Card (3-2) Overall (5-6)
UFC on FuelTV: Nogueira vs. Werdum
Preliminaries (4-2) Main Card (3-3) Overall (7-5)
UFC 160: Velazquez vs. Silva -
Preliminaries (4-3) Main Card (4-1) Overall (8-4)
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold -
Preliminaries (5-4) Main Card (3-1) Overall (8-5)
UFC 159: Jones vs. Sonnen -
Preliminaries (5-1) Main Card (3-2) Overall (8-3)
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs. Melendez -
Preliminaries (4-4) Main Card (2-2) Overall (6-6)
The Ultimate Fighter Finale: Team Jones vs. Team Sonnen -
Preliminaries (3-4) Main Card (3-2) Overall (6-6)
UFC on FuelTV: Moussasi vs. Latifi -
Preliminaries (2-5) Main Card (3-3) Overall (5-8)
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs. Diaz -
Preliminaries (5-2) Main Card (3-2) Overall (8-4)
UFC on FuelTV: Sliva vs. Stann -
Preliminaries (2-3) Main Card (3-3) Overall (5-6)
UFC 157: Rousey vs. Carmouche -
Preliminaries (5-3) Main Card (4-1) Overall (9-4)
UFC on FuelTv: McDonald vs. Barao -
Preliminaries (1-5) Main Card (3-3) Overall (4-8)
UFC 156: Edgar vs. Aldo -
Preliminaries (3-3) Main Card (3-2) Overall (6-5)
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Dodson -
Preliminaries: (4-2) Main Card (2-2) Overall (6-4)
UFC on FX: Bisping vs. Belfort -
Preliminaries (3-3-1) Main Card (2-2) Overall (5-5-1)
Strikeforce: Marquardt vs. Saffiedine -
Preliminaries (5-1) Main Card (4-1) Overall (9-2)
UFC 155: Velasquez vs. dos Santos -
Preliminaries (6-1) Main Card (0-5) Overall (6-6)
UFC on FOX 5: Henderson vs. Diaz -
Preliminaries (2-5) Main Card (3-1) Overall (5-6)
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs. Condit -
Preliminaries (5-2) Main Card (2-3) Overall (7-5)
UFC on FUEL TV: Franklin vs. Cung Le -
Preliminaries (1-2) Main Card (4-1) Overall (5-3)
UFC 153: Silva vs. Bonnar -
Preliminaries (5-1) Main Card (4-2) Overall (9-3)
UFC 149: Faber vs. Barao -
Preliminaries (4-2) Main Card (2-3) Overall (6-5)
UFC 148: Sliva vs. Sonnen II -
Preliminaries (3-2) Main Card (5-1) Overall (8-3)
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir -
Preliminaries (4-3) Main Card (4-1) Overall (8-4)
UFC on FOX 2: Evans vs. Davis -
Main Card (3-0)