Once again, we here at SportSmasher.com had an excellent week picking winners, but struggled against the spread which has been the story of our year so far. We should stick to the moneylines, the point spread is killing us, and but we intend on turning the ship around starting this weekend. SportSmasher and RexRated each went (2-1) on their best bets last weekend, and although we have struggles, we are showing signs of life with a lot of season left. Week seven is here, we are not even at the halfway point yet, and the turnaround begins now. Let’s get to the picks:
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals (+7.5) I am all for taking the points in every Thursday night game, teams are sloppy and not recovered from their games the previous Sunday, and the underprepared teams usually turn the ball over often. The Seattle Seahawks (5-1) are the best home team in the NFL, and one of the favorites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, but when they have letdown games, it is always on the road. The Arizona Cardinals (3-3) offense faces the best secondary league, and with the mistake prone Carson Palmer at quarterback, this would normally be a death sentence. However, the Arizona Cardinals are strong defensively, and will keep the Seahawks strong running game in check which will give them a chance to hang in this game. I am not going to say that the Arizona Cardinals will win this game, but I think that their playmakers on defense like Patrick Peterson and “The Honey Badger” will make enough plays at home in a sloppy Thursday night game to keep it close, and will give them a chance to win.
THE PICK: Cardinals (+7.5) FINAL SCORE: Seahawks 20 Cardinals 17
New England Patriots @ New York Jets (+4.5) This time one week ago, New York City was buzzing about the Jets (3-3), after rookie quarterback Geno Smith won the AFC Offensive Player Of The Week, and Gang Green beat the Falcons in Atlanta on Monday Night Football. Last weekend following a short week, the Jets lost an ugly home game to the Pittsburgh Steelers, and expectations have come back down to earth. The New England Patriots (5-1) have now lost two key players in the middle of their defense, linebacker Jerod Mayo and nose tackle Vince Wilfork, to season ending injuries that could doom their Super Bowl chances in the long run. The Pats have shown the ability to overcome injuries on the other side of the ball, where the offense is still one of the league’s best, despite missing several key players including Rob Gronkowski and Shave Vereen due to injuries. These two teams met in New England on a Thursday night in week two, and the Patriots won a very ugly game, which included the most combined dropped passes that I have ever seen. With a full week to prepare, and coming off a victory in the final seconds over the New Orleans Saints last weekend, the Patriots will be confident. If the Jets can get the running game going against an injury weakened Patriots front they will have a chance in this game, and I do not think it will be a blowout, but I think the Patriots cover in the end.
THE PICK: Patriots (-4.5) FINAL SCORE: Patriots 27 Jets 20
***REXRATED BEST BET: PATRIOTS (-4.5)***
San Diego Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5) The Chargers (3-3) are coming off of a home win against the Indianapolis Colts on Monday night football, and although they are not quite strong enough to make a run at the playoffs in my opinion, they can be a tough team when they play to their strengths. This is being called an upset pick by some since the chargers are on a short week, but I do not see it, the Chargers know that if they beat the lowly Jaguars they can go into their week eight Bye over (.500). The Jacksonville Jaguars (0-6) had a moral victory last weekend, by sticking with the unbeaten Denver Broncos in the first half, and covering the largest point spread in NFL history. I think that a strong Chargers defensive front will not allow the Jaguars to run the football, which will get them the ball back quickly, and Philip Rivers will lead them to points when they have the ball. I think Jacksonville will stay in this game, but an amped up Chargers team will get a road win, and go into their bye week at (4-3).
THE PICK: Chargers (-7.5) FINAL SCORE: Chargers 23 Jacksonville 13
***REXRATED BEST BET: CHARGERS (-7.5)***
Cincinnati Bengals @ Detroit Lions (-3) An interesting matchup between two good teams that is the highlight of the early slate of games, the AFC North leading Bengals (4-2) head to Detroit to take on the Lions (4-2) who are tied for the NFC North lead with the Chicago Bears. The Lions have one of the best offenses in the league, and quarterback Matthew Stafford is fourth in the league in passing yards, while throwing 12 touchdowns to just 4 interceptions. The Bengals have a strong defensive front seven, which will make things difficult for Detroit in the running game, and will harass Stafford when he drops back to pass. I think that the Bengals are a tough matchup for the Lions, Detroit likes to win in shootout style games against weak defenses, while the Bengals will grind them out with their strong defense and running game. The AFC has a (19-13) against the NFC this year, they have been the better conference, and I think that continues here when the Bengals win a close one.
THE PICK: Bengals (+3) FINAL SCORE: Bengals 24 Lions 21
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins (-8) Nobody has had worse luck at quarterback than the Buffalo Bills (2-4). First they lost veteran Kevin Kolb to a career threatening injury in training camp, so they start rookie first round pick EJ Manuel, who gets off to a hot start and looks like he has great potential. They lose Manuel to a knee injury which will sideline him another 4-6 weeks, and bring in career backup Thad Lewis as the starter, who they was injured last weekend. The Bills signed Matt Flynn, who was recently cut by the Oakland Raiders, but Thad Lewis should start in this game with a sprained foot. The Miami Dolphins (3-2) have been one of the most improved teams in the NFL this season, it looks like Ryan Tannehill will be the quarterback of the future in Miami, he has produced since the Dolphins went out and got him some weapons in the passing game. This line feels a little high to me, and I think that Miami get the win, but the Bills will keep the ball on the ground due to uncertainty at quarterback and they have running backs who should find some success. Really a tough call, and Miami could blow them out if the Bills turn the ball over, but I take the points.
THE PICK: Bills (+8) FINAL SCORE: Dolphins 24 Bills 17
Chicago Bears @ Washington Redskins (+1) The Chicago Bears (4-2) are tied for the division lead with the Detroit Lions, and new head coach Mark Trestman and the Bears offseason acquisitions along the offensive line have made the Bears much stronger on that side of the ball. One thing that nobody is discussing about the Bears is the fact that their historically excellent defense has been awful, and is ranked 23rd in the NFL this season. That should not matter this Sunday against a Washington Redskins team (1-4), which is led by extremely talented quarterback Robert Griffin III, who is still struggling while coming back from a knee injury. RGIII gains more confidence in his surgically repaired knee each game, and even ran the ball with some success for the first time since the injury in a loss against the Dallas Cowboys last weekend, and I think he will continue to improve as the season wears on. The Redskins also have struggled defensively, especially in the secondary, where I expect the Bears passing attack to find success. I see a big game from quarterback Jay Cutler and wide receiver Brandon Marshall, as the Bears get win on the road, to keep at least a share of the division lead.
THE PICK: Bears (+1) FINAL SCORE: Bears 31 Redskins 27
***SPORTSMASHER BEST BET: BEARS (+1)***
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) A battle for supremacy in the worst division in football, the winner of this game will be the leader in the NFC East, a division with a combined record of (7-16). The Eagles (3-3) have the second ranked offense in the league, as new head coach Chip Kelly’s offense has made the transition well from Oregon to the NFL, as the Eagles have one of the most exciting offensive units in the league. Unfortunately, the acquisition of the offensive-minded Chip Kelly has also impacted the other side of the ball, where the Eagles have the worst defense in the league. The Dallas Cowboys are in a similar situation, they have the league’s 11th ranked offense led big numbers from quarterback Tony Romo, but the league’s second worst defense behind only Philly. Expect a shootout in this game, Dallas will miss injured pass rusher DeMarcus Ware and running back DeMarco Murray in the game, but I think the Tony Romo to Dez Bryant connection will be too much for Philly’s defense to handle. Lots of points. Take the points.
THE PICK: Cowboys (+3.5) FINAL SCORE: Cowboys 41 Eagles 38
St. Louis Rams @ Carolina Panthers (-6) The two flakiest teams in the NFL meet when the St. Louis Rams (3-3) head to Carolina to take on the Panthers (2-3). I am glad that these two teams are playing each other, because I seem to lose on them every single week, and I can only lose once on this game. The Panthers two wins have been absolute blowouts of the New York Giants and Minnesota Vikings, if you just watched the tape of those two Panthers games, you would think that they were Super Bowl contenders. The Rams were crushed by Dallas, San Francisco and Atlanta, while beating Arizona and Jacksonville, before blowing out Houston on the road last weekend. There is a chance that one of these teams no-shows this game, so normally I would take the points, however I Carolina has an excellent defensive front seven and the best offensive player in this game in quarterback Cam Newton. When the Rams blew out the Texans last weekend, they had two defensive touchdowns, and that is unlikely to happen again. I think that Brian Schottenheimer’s “take no chances” offense struggles to move the ball, Cam Newton does move the ball, and Carolina get a home win.
THE PICK: Panthers (-6) FINAL SCORE: Panthers 24 Rams 16
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons (-7.5) The worst injury situation in the NFL belongs to the Atlanta Falcons (1-4), who can add Julio Jones to this list, as he is out for the season with a foot injury. The Falcons just have too many injuries to key players to overcome, it was just bad luck for one of the early Super Bowl favorites out of the NFC, and I think it will be impossible for them to bounce back. If the Falcons have the worst injury situation in football then the Buccaneers (0-6) have the worst situation in football, and the entire organization is in a bad place. Unhappy starting quarterback Josh Freeman was released, the players have turned on head coach Greg Schiano, and the team has been battling a deadly MRSA infection. Not good. Atlanta should not be favored by more than a touchdown against anyone though, and while I think they Falcons win this game, they are too banged up to cover.
THE PICK: Buccaneers (+7.5) FINAL SCORE: Falcons 23 Buccaneers 20
San Francisco 49ers @ Tennessee Titans (+4.5) The Tennessee Titans (3-3) are a gritty team, and if they had not lost quarterback Jake Locker to a hip injury, they could be in the playoff hunt in the NFC this season. The Titans are now starting Ryan Fiztpatrick at quarterback, and for their offense to be successful, they need to find a running game. That will not happen against the San Francisco 49ers (4-2), who struggled defensively early in the season, but have since improved and are starting to round into form. Colin Kaepernick has not been the quarterback that was so impressive down the stretch for the 49ers last season, but he has also been improving each week, and should hit his stride once receivers Mario Manningham and Michael Crabtree return from injuries over the next month. The Titans are a gritty team, especially defensively, and I expect them to hang around in this game. Ultimately the inability to run the football and mistakes made by Ryan Fitzpatrick under pressure will doom the Titans in this game.
THE PICK: 49ers (-4.5) FINAL SCORE: 49ers 24 Titans 17
Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) The Houston Texans (2-4) are one of the most disappointing teams in the NFL this season, the fan base has turned on quarterback Matt Schaub, and even cheered when he injured his ankle last weekend which caused friction between the Texans fans and players. Schaub’s status for this weekend’s game is in question, and backup quarterback T.J Yates quickly threw an interception that was returned for a touchdown in last week’s loss, making it five straight weeks that the Texans have given up a pick six. The Kansas City Chiefs (6-0) have the best pass rush in the NFL, they lead the league with 30.0 sacks, and they should add to that total early and often this Sunday at Arrowhead. I still question if the Chiefs will be able to play from behind, their passing offense is safe and steady, but lacks big play ability. That will not matter on Sunday, the Chiefs pass rush will force the Texans into mistakes, and the Chiefs will continue on their roll.
THE PICK: Chiefs (-6.5) FINAL SCORE: Chiefs 27 Texans 17
***SPORTSMASHER BEST BET: ChIefs (-6.5)***
Cleveland Browns @ Green Bay Packers (-10.5) The Green Bay Packers (3-2) have been decimated by injuries, their best pass rusher Clay Matthews is out with a thumb injury, and their most explosive receiver Randall Cobb is out with a fractured fibula. As long as quarterback Aaron Rogers is distributing the football, the Packers have enough weapons on offense to put up points, and the Packers will be tough to beat in any game. The Cleveland Browns (3-3) are just one game out of the division lead, and they are a strong team defensively, especially in the front seven. Unfortunately one of the Browns strengths is not quarterback, they had a chance to beat Detroit last weekend, but an underhanded pass attempt that Brandon Weeden that was intercepted doomed the Browns. Weeden does have a big arm, and I think a few deep passes to wide receiver Josh Gordon and their defense will keep them in this game, but ultimately the Packers win.
THE PICK: Browns (+10.5) FINAL SCORE: Packers 27 Browns 20
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-1) The Pittsburgh Steelers (1-4) are no longer winless, they beat the Jets in New York last weekend in an ugly game, but they in no means looked like they turned their season around. The Steelers offensive line has struggled to protect quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, who is holding onto the ball too long, and the Steelers running game has improved from awful to inconsistent since running back LeVeon Bell got healthy. The Ravens (3-3) have looked okay at time, and downright awful at other times, and quarterback Joe Flacco has not been living up to the massive contract that he signed after being named last season’s Super Bowl MVP. The Ravens have several injuries, but also added several new players due to offseason defections and retirements, which have caused them to struggle defensively. The Ravens have been the better team this year, and I think that this will continue this weekend, as they stay in the divisional race with a win in Pittsburgh.
THE PICK: Ravens (+1) FINAL SCORE: Ravens 24 Steelers 17
Denver Broncos @ Indianapolis Colts (+6.5) The Denver Broncos (6-0) have been the best team in the NFL this season, led by quarterback Peyton Manning, who returns to Indianapolis for the first time since being traded to the Broncos after the 2011 season. Manning faces his replacement in Indianapolis, quarterback Andrew Luck, who has the young Colts sitting at a respectable (4-2). Colts owner Jim Irsay has made several disparaging remarks about Peyton Manning this week, when he said that Manning gave the Colts a lot of stats and one Super Bowl, but now they are building towards multiple Super Bowls. I think that Manning will return to Indianapolis on the national stage this weekend, and make Irsay regret he ever said anything to take away from what Manning accomplished in Indy. Luck is playing well right now, and is going to be great one day, but this is Manning’s season. The Colts will score on the Broncos, but not enough, Broncos win handily.
THE PICK: Broncos (-6.5) FINAL SCORE: Broncos 41 Colts 27
***SPORTSMASHER BEST BET: BRONCOS (-6.5)***
***REXRATED BEST BET: BRONCOS (-6.5)***
Minnesota Vikings @ New York Giants (-3.5) Two of the worst teams in football meet on Monday Night, when the Minnesota Vikings (1-4) head east to take on the winless New York Giants (0-6), who are the NFL’s most disappointing team. The Vikings signed quarterback Josh Freeman after he was released by the Buccaneers, and he will make his first start for them, and his big arm should add a new element to the Minnesota offense. The Vikings have started Christian Ponder and Matt Cassel at quarterback this season, two guys who cannot throw the ball deep, which has shrunk the field and allowed defenses to stack the line of scrimmage against running back Adrian Peterson. Freeman’s big arm has to be respected, which will open things up for Peterson, and should make the Vikings more dangerous offensively. The Giants are dealing with a lot of injuries, and Eli Manning leads the NFL in turnovers, plus they are getting zero pass rush defensively which was their former calling card. I think that Freeman will throw a few deep balls early, which will keep the defense off of the line of scrimmage, and allow for a big game from Adrian Peterson. Vikings get the win, in a close one, despite their awful defense.
THE PICK: Vikings (+3.5) FINAL SCORE: Vikings 27 Giants 23
WEEK ONE:
Against The Spread (6-9-1) Outright (6-10)
SportSmasher Best Bets (1-2) RexRated Best Bets (2-1)
WEEK TWO:
Against The Spread (7-8-1) Outright (13-3)
SportSmasher Best Bets (0-3) RexRated Best Bets (1-1-1)
WEEK THREE:
Against The Spread (7-8-1) Outright (11-5)
SportSmasher Best Bets (1-2) RexRated Best Bets (1-2)
WEEK FOUR:
Against The Spread (7-8) Outright (10-5)
SportSmasher Best Bets (2-1) RexRated Best Bets (0-3)
WEEK FIVE:
Against The Spread (5-9) Outright (10-4)
SportSmasher Best Bets (1-2) RexRated Best Bets (0-3)
WEEK SIX:
Against The Spread (5-9-1) Outright (10-5)
SportSmasher Best Bets (2-1) RexRated Best Bets (2-1)
OVERALL:
Against The Spread (37-51-4) Outright (60-32)
SportSmasher Best Bets (7-11) RexRated Best Bets (6-11-1)