For the second time this week, the UFC brings us a live event from the Midwest, this time it’s UFC 164. The card is highlighted by Lightweight Champion Benson Henderson defending his title against a familiar opponent, number one contender Anthony Pettis. The two competitors have met before, in a classic battle at WEC 53 in December of 2010, where Anthony Pettis hit his “Showtime Kick” for the first time and beat Henderson in a close fight by decision to win the WEC Lightweight Champion. The fight was the Fight-of-the-Night and won the Fight-of-the-Year, as both fighters turned in incredible performances, and the UFC is hoping for an equally great fight this time around. It is a strong card with a lot of great action, including an excellent heavyweight showdown that has been a long time coming, so let’s get to the picks.
Preliminary Card (Facebook): Jared Hamman OVER Magnus Cedenblad, Al Iaquinta OVER Ryan Couture, Soa Palelei OVER Nikita Krylov
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports One): Chico Camus OVER Kyung Ho Kang, Lim Hyun-Gyu OVER Pascal Krauss, Tim Elliott OVER Louis Gaudinot, Jamie Varner OVER Gleison Tibau
Eric Koch (13-2) vs. Dustin Poirier (13-3) – Featherweight Bout - An excellent bout between two of the fighters that I often side with while writing these picks columns, which has worked out well for me in the past, as you can see by their records. Poirier has lost two of this last three fights, but the losses were to highly ranked Cub Swanson by decision and to “The Korean Zombie” who just received a title shot, which many considered the 2012 Fight-of-the-Year. Erich Koch was quickly rising up the featherweight ranks and was supposed to receive a title shot against Jose Aldo, but he suffered an injury and was forced to pull out of that fight, which was awarded to “The Korean Zombie”. Upon returning, he suffered a devastating knockout loss to Ricardo Llamas in January, from which he is looking to rebound in this fight. Interesting side not, both of these fighters last wins came against former Ultimate Fighter winner Jonathan Brookins. This is going to be an excellent fight, which could go either way, but I think Koch will control the action and win a decision. THE PICK: Koch By Decision
Ben Rothwell (32-9) vs. Brandon Vera (12-6-1) – Heavyweight Bout - Ben Rothwell is a big tough heavyweight, who has some impressive wins over Brendan Schaub and Gilbert Yvel, and is very dangerous if he is in shape. However, conditioning has been an issue for him in the past, and he will get that tested in this matchup. Brandon Vera was once one of the most promising prospects in the UFC, he has not fought at heavyweight in a long time, but has packed on a lot of muscle and is now a legit heavyweight. Vera has wins over heavyweights like Frank Mir in the past, but that was at UFC 65 in 2006, a long time ago. If Rothwell is in shape, he can easily finish Vera, Rothwell is one of the toughest heavyweights out there today and was not finished in losses to Roy Nelson or Mark Hunt. I like Rothwell to out muscle Vera and grind out a win. THE PICK: Rothwell By TKO In The Third Round
Chad Mendes (14-1) vs. Clay Guida (30-13) – Featherweight Bout – An interesting featherweight matchup, two of the most entertaining fighters in the division square off, when Chad Mendes meets Clay Guida. Mendes has only lost once in his career, to UFC Champion Jose Aldo last July at UFC 148, and has won three fights since by knockout. He is one of the best wrestlers in the division, but also packs thunder in his hands, another wrestler that easily make the transition to power punching. Clay Guida might be the toughest guy in the UFC to hit, his style is completely unorthodox, and he has never been knocked out in competition. This fight is going to go to a decision, it is going to be a typical Clay Guida fight, where he stays away from danger and looks for his spots to strike. I think Mendes is ready for this, will be able to land more significant strikes, and gets the nod. THE PICK: Mendes By Decision
Frank Mir (16-7) vs. Josh Barnett (32-6) – Heavyweight Bout - A matchup that has been a long time coming, two heavyweight legends meet, in a fight that true fans have been waiting ages to see. Frank Mir is the former UFC Heavyweight Champion, he has the most fights, wins, finishes and submission victories in the history of the heavyweight division. Mir has submitted some of the toughest heavyweights in the history of UFC, including Tank Abbot, Tim Sylvia and Brock Lesnar, and has defeated four former Heavyweight Champions. However, Mir is coming off consecutive losses to Daniel Cormier and Junior dos Santos, and needs to get a win on Saturday night. Josh Barnett is also a former UFC Heavyweight Champion, but he has not fought in the promotion since beating Randy Couture at UFC 46, but he is a legend due to his wins in Pancrase, Pride and Strikeforce. The list of names that Barnett has defeated reads like a MMA Heavyweight Hall of Fame, and includes Dan Severn, Pedro Rizzo, Semmy Schilt, Randy Couture and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. These are two of the most talented submission heavyweights we have ever seen, so that aspect of the fight is a wash, and if it goes to the ground I think both fighters will have a counter to the others submissions. I think Barnett has one significant advantage in this fight, I expect him to be able to take Mir down with his catch wrestling, and he should be able to avoid Mir’s submission attempts once he does. I think Barnett eventually gets on top of Mir and finishes him with punches. THE PICK: Barnett By TKO In The Second Round
Anthony Pettis (16-2) vs. (c) Benson Henderson (19-2) – Lightweight Championship Bout - These two are no strangers, as I stated in the introduction, Pettis defeated Henderson for the WEC Lightweight Title by decision in December of 2010. Since then, Henderson has won seven straight fights, and become the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion, and has successfully defended his title three times. Anthony Pettis is one of the most exciting professional fighters today, he is well known for his “Showtime Kick” (springing off the cage with one foot, kicking with the other), which he landed on Henderson in their last meeting, and got him the top spot on SportsCenter’s Top Ten Plays. Pettis is a dangerous striker who can end a fight at any moment, in his last two fights he has knocked out Joe Lauzon with a head kick and Donald Cerrone with a liver kick, both of which earned him Knockout-of-the-Night bonuses. However, Henderson is a much better fighter than he was when these two met in 2010, he is big for a lightweight and is an incredible wrestler who uses this skill to neutralize his opponents. Pettis needs to stay on his feet, defend takedowns and use his striking advantage to pick Henderson apart. However, I like the champion to control the action with his wrestling, take Pettis to the ground and win a decision. THE PICK: Henderson By Decision
OVERALL RECORD:
Preliminaries (107-80-2) Main Card (92-58) Overall (199-138-2)
Main Events (25-5)
MMA PICKS RECORD (by event):
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs. Kampmann -
Preliminaries (4-1-1) Main Card (5-1) Overall (9-2-1)
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Sonnen -
Preliminaries (4-3) Main Card (3-3) Overall (7-6)
UFC 163: Aldo vs. Korean Zombie -
Preliminaries (4-3) Main Card (4-1) Overall (8-4)
UFC on Fox: Johnson vs. Moraga -
Preliminaries (4-4) Main Card (4-0) Overall (8-4)
UFC 162: Silva vs. Weidman -
Preliminaries (4-2) Main Card (1-4) Overall (5-6)
UFC 161: Evans vs. Henderson
Preliminaries (2-4) Main Card (3-2) Overall (5-6)
UFC on FuelTV: Nogueira vs. Werdum
Preliminaries (4-2) Main Card (3-3) Overall (7-5)
UFC 160: Velazquez vs. Silva -
Preliminaries (4-3) Main Card (4-1) Overall (8-4)
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold -
Preliminaries (5-4) Main Card (3-1) Overall (8-5)
UFC 159: Jones vs. Sonnen -
Preliminaries (5-1) Main Card (3-2) Overall (8-3)
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs. Melendez -
Preliminaries (4-4) Main Card (2-2) Overall (6-6)
The Ultimate Fighter Finale: Team Jones vs. Team Sonnen -
Preliminaries (3-4) Main Card (3-2) Overall (6-6)
UFC on FuelTV: Moussasi vs. Latifi -
Preliminaries (2-5) Main Card (3-3) Overall (5-8)
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs. Diaz -
Preliminaries (5-2) Main Card (3-2) Overall (8-4)
UFC on FuelTV: Sliva vs. Stann -
Preliminaries (2-3) Main Card (3-3) Overall (5-6)
UFC 157: Rousey vs. Carmouche -
Preliminaries (5-3) Main Card (4-1) Overall (9-4)
UFC on FuelTv: McDonald vs. Barao -
Preliminaries (1-5) Main Card (3-3) Overall (4-8)
UFC 156: Edgar vs. Aldo -
Preliminaries (3-3) Main Card (3-2) Overall (6-5)
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Dodson -
Preliminaries: (4-2) Main Card (2-2) Overall (6-4)
UFC on FX: Bisping vs. Belfort -
Preliminaries (3-3-1) Main Card (2-2) Overall (5-5-1)
Strikeforce: Marquardt vs. Saffiedine -
Preliminaries (5-1) Main Card (4-1) Overall (9-2)
UFC 155: Velasquez vs. dos Santos -
Preliminaries (6-1) Main Card (0-5) Overall (6-6)
UFC on FOX 5: Henderson vs. Diaz -
Preliminaries (2-5) Main Card (3-1) Overall (5-6)
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs. Condit -
Preliminaries (5-2) Main Card (2-3) Overall (7-5)
UFC on FUEL TV: Franklin vs. Cung Le -
Preliminaries (1-2) Main Card (4-1) Overall (5-3)
UFC 153: Silva vs. Bonnar -
Preliminaries (5-1) Main Card (4-2) Overall (9-3)
UFC 149: Faber vs. Barao -
Preliminaries (4-2) Main Card (2-3) Overall (6-5)
UFC 148: Sliva vs. Sonnen II -
Preliminaries (3-2) Main Card (5-1) Overall (8-3)
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir -
Preliminaries (4-3) Main Card (4-1) Overall (8-4)
UFC on FOX 2: Evans vs. Davis -
Main Card (3-0)