With Fantasy Baseball draft season finally upon us, it’s time to check out what Fantasy Baseball writers are thinking as Spring Training begins. They’ve been following the sport closer than a lot of us, and they have already engaged in a few different mock drafts themselves.
Over at “Fantasy411” on MLB.com, Zach Steinhorn has assembled a dozen of those writers, including yours truly, to go through a 23-round, Mixed Rotisserie 2017 Fantasy Baseball mock draft. This draft spans several weeks, as it is a slow, email mock draft, but each writer has shared a couple sentences on each of his picks.
The participants for this 2017 Fantasy mock draft include:
Jason Collette, FanGraphs.com/Rotowire.com
Nando Di Fino, FNTSY Sports Network
Jeff Eriickson, RotoWire.com
Ray Flowers, FantasyAlarm.com
David Gonos, SoCalledFantasyExperts.com
Tim Heaney, RotoWire.com
Lawr Michaels, Mastersball.com
Ray Murphy, BaseballHQ.com
Paul Sporer, FanGraphs.com
Zach Steinhorn, MLB.com/Mastersball.com
Derek Van Riper, RotoWire.com
Fred Zinkie, MLB.com
We’re going to go over just the first round, and all the comments on this site will be my own, but you can read all of the writers’ comments on all of their picks here at Fantasy411.MLBlogs.com.
2017 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft: Round 1
Again, these picks are for 12-team, Mixed Rotisserie leagues, but the analysis provided by the writers is still useful for all types of leagues.
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1/12
1.01 Mike Trout, OF, L.A. Angels
This is no shocker, considering Trout is still just 25 years old, with two MVP trophies (not to mention the three times he came in second in MVP voting). He provides power (35 HR average since 2014), speed (19 SB average since 2014) and batting average (hitting over .300 since 2014).
It’s quite possible that Trout will remain the top overall pick for the next four seasons, until his speed begins to slow down, much like we’re seeing with Andrew McCutchen.
Photo Credit: Rob Carr, Getty Images
2/12
1.02 Mookie Betts, OF, Boston Red Sox
Gone is David Ortiz, but this Red Sox offense will remain lethal, mostly due to Mr. Betts’ bat. Heaney is expecting over 20 homers and 20 stolen bases (only nine members of the 20/20 club last season), and Betts is a safe bet for batting well over .300 again. Betts is the easy second pick, as evidenced by his great ADP numbers after Trout, but after him, it starts to get tricky.
Photo Credit: Al Bello, Getty Images
3/12
1.03 Nolan Arenado, 3B, Colorado Rockies
While FantasyPros’ ADP shows Kris Bryant as the third overall pick, and top third baseman, but Sporer points out that Arenado’s consistency makes a bigger argument for him. “Since ’15 he is 1st in RBI, 3rd in HRs, and 4th in Runs, and hitting .291,” Sporer said. “He also doubled his BB% and trimmed his K% from ’15 to ’16.”
Myself, I’m a risk-averse kinda guy, so I want as much consistency as possible, and Arenado does bring that. But Bryant’s past two seasons might push me that way more than Arenado’s.
Photo Credit: Dylan Buell, Getty Images
4/12
1.04 Jose Altuve, 2B, Houston Astros
The days of doubting the diminutive one are officially behind us. Altuve provides plus-numbers in all five hitting categories, and he’ll lead your team in at least a couple of them. At this point, several owners have mentioned the drop of perennial high pick Paul Goldschmidt, and Bryant drops another spot from his ADP precipice.
Photo Credit: Scott Halleran, Getty Images
5/12
1.05 Kris Bryant, 3B/OF, Chicago Cubs
It’s apparent that FantasyPros’ ADP, which brings in draft data from the NFBC, Yahoo! and CBS Sports, values Bryant a little more than these Fantasy writers (or at least the last two or three). Considering Bryant’s explosion of 39 homers and a majors-leading 121 runs scored on one of the most popular MLB teams in the country, it’s easy to understand why his ADP is so high.
Rotowire’s Ray Murphy notes that Goldschmidt’s position (first base) is deep enough to wait at that spot, and Bryant’s position flexibility made his decision to go with Bryant even easier.
Photo Credit: Jonathan Daniel, Getty Images
6/12
1.06 Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks
This is where I stepped in to clean up the leftovers.
Goldy has been a top-three Fantasy pick since 2013, mostly because he has delivered power numbers at a power-requisite corner infield spot, along with a great boost in steals (53 SBs since 2015) from a notably slow position.
Toss in the fact that he also brings a .300 batting average in about 700 plate appearances, which should help when I inevitably add a .240 power guy later on, and he’s a solid first-half-of-first-round pick.
Photo Credit: Christian Petersen, Getty Images
7/12
1.07 Clayton Kershaw, SP, L.A. Dodgers
Kershaw was actually considered as high as the second overall pick in this draft, but he fell to seventh, which is closer to his ADP on CBS and Yahoo!
A herniated disc stole some two months-worth of starts last season, making him a risky proposition this high up in any draft. But Van Riper explains that the way the starting pitcher position lays out this year, he’s willing to risk taking a pitcher in the first two rounds.
Photo Credit: Lisa Blumenfeld, Getty Images
8/12
1.08 Manny Machado, SS/3B, Baltimore Orioles
Machado ranks third at third base among many experts, behind Arenado and Bryant, but a case can be made that he should be ranked ahead of both.
While you shouldn’t rely on his speed (20 SBs in 2015, 0 SBs in 2016), he does have 72 home runs over the past two years (top eight in majors over that range), and 1,409 plate appearances (top two since 2015). Considering Machado has already had a couple knee surgeries, those numbers are even more impressive.
But knowing he’s about to enter his power prime ages (he’ll turn 25 in July) and he has shortstop-eligibility makes him a superb mid-first-round pick.
Photo Credit: G Fiume, Getty Images
9/12
1.09 Max Scherzer, SP, Washington Nationals
When was the last time a Nationals player was picked above Bryce Harper? Maybe 2013?
Scherzer struck out over 250 batters for the third consecutive season, while also breaching the 200-inning mark for the fourth consecutive year. He did suffer a stress fracture in the knuckle of his right ring finger in January.
But really, you could file that under serendipity. That injury will keep him out of the World Baseball Classic, saving him for a full, unfettered season in the majors without extra innings on his shoulder/elbow.
Photo Credit: Rob Carr, Getty Images
10/12
1.10 Bryce Harper, OF, Washington Nationals
FantasyPros’ ADP shows that Harper is being picked (on average) higher than Scherzer at all three sites (CBS, NFBC and Yahoo!).
Harper seems like a dogged 10-year veteran at this point, plugging away with some inconsistent overall numbers from one year to the next. But when you realize he’s younger than Mike Trout, and won’t turn 24 years old until October, then it’s easier to forgive an undulating career stat lines thus far.
Flowers points out that Harper has averaged .287–33–93–101–13 the last two years, which makes him a solid first-round pick in all formats.
Photo Credit: Mitchell Layton, Getty Images
11/12
1.11 Josh Donaldson, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays
ZInkie, one of the best Fantasy players around, points out that while Donaldson’s lesser surrounding cast in Toronto might cost him some RBI and runs scored this year. But he also notes that Donaldson’s lineup last year wasn’t that productive either.
Interestingly, Donaldson has 1,411 plate appearances over the past two seasons combined, making him the leader among all hitters in that category since 2015. Combine that with a strong .291 batting average, and he has the ability to help your team overcome less-reliable hitters later.
Photo Credit: Jim McIsaac, Getty Images
12/12
1.12 Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Chicago Cubs
Things start to get dicey at this point, but Rizzo is as good a pick as Charlie Blackmon, Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Correa or Trea Turner. Plus, when you consider having the last pick in the first round means you also have the first pick in the second round, then picking Rizzo or Cabrera with one of those picks, to go with Blackmon, Correa, Turner or Madison Bumgarner makes sound sense.
Photo Credit: Jonathan Daniel, Getty Images
13/12
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1/13
1.01 Mike Trout, OF, L.A. Angels
This is no shocker, considering Trout is still just 25 years old, with two MVP trophies (not to mention the three times he came in second in MVP voting). He provides power (35 HR average since 2014), speed (19 SB average since 2014) and batting average (hitting over .300 since 2014).
It’s quite possible that Trout will remain the top overall pick for the next four seasons, until his speed begins to slow down, much like we’re seeing with Andrew McCutchen.
Photo Credit: Rob Carr, Getty Images
2/13
1.02 Mookie Betts, OF, Boston Red Sox