Every week, I’ll pick NFL games against the spread. Week 1 would have been massively profitable if the Texas had scored one more point. They didn’t. So we’re down 61 bucks. It happens. Regularly. If you can’t handle that, you shouldn’t be betting on sports.
Here’s Week 2. Did you know that Week 2
Realize: betting NFL is really hard. These picks are meant to help you out so you don’t lose all your money, but they aren’t meant to be followed blindly. Listen, and hopefully be entertained by my childish jokes. Or at least say something mean about me so I can get a good cry in.
I will make a pick for every game. But if I don’t specifically recommend a bet, I’m just throwing darts. Don’t listen to my advice. The pick is there so I can have a record for picking every game, one that will undoubtedly suck. And then you can make fun of me. I’m a man of the people. As always, I hope you argue with me on Twitter.
For the actual bets, I will keep track of my record and profits/losses. Unlike my NHL/NBA “how not to lose your money gamblin’ “ series, a normal bet will be to win $100, for tracking purposes, because I’m a hypothetical high-roller, and you are too. There will be occasional double, triple, quadruple, and probably even quintuple bets!
Home teams are starred.
New York Jets (+13) over New England Patriots*
I was at the Meadowlands the last time these old friends played. It went like this:
Dad: I can’t believe Sanchez just ran into that guy’s butt and fumbled.
Me: That didn’t happen. You’re wrong.
(replay appears on jumbotron)
Me: Oh.
Dad: Let’s go.
Me: No, we still have a chance.
(Patriots score third touchdown in under a minute)
Me: Fuck.
I understand if this memory leads you to throw all of your money on the Patriots. But take a step back, remember that one game means nothing for predictive purposes, and analyze this game like the smart reader you are.
Series history since Rex Ryan was hired:
2009: 1-1, both home teams won. (16-9 in NJ, 31-14 in NE)
2010: 2-1 Jets, Jets won 28-14 in NJ, NE won 45-3 in NE, Jets won 28-21 in playoffs in NE
2011: 2-0 Pats, 30-21 in NJ, 37-16 in NE
2012: 2-0 Pats, 29-26 (OT) in NE, 49-19 in NJ
The weird, maybe-meaningful, maybe-useless trend is: the Jets been really good in the first matchup of the year, and really awful in the second matchup. 3 of 4 times that’s correlated with them being at home, but then the Jets (yes, last year’s Jets) took the Pats to overtime in the teams’ first matchup last year, in New England.
Might mean something about Rex Ryan scheming against Bill Belichick, then Belichick figuring him out, might just be a coincidence. It’s worth pondering.
Going into the year, I was ecstatic to bet on the Jets, because I thought even though they’re not good, they’re undervalued because everyone thinks they’re the Washington Generals.
I also thought the Patriots would struggle (relative to their expectations), so this is the perfect recipe for a bet. Rex Ryan, who’s had as much success as almost anyone scheming against Brady, coaching an undervalued team against an overvalued team that just nearly lost to a rookie quarterback.
You’re looking for value, not sure things. If the Jets have greater than a 52.4% chance of keeping this game within two touchdowns, it’s a profitable bet. With Shane Vereen, Danny Amendola, Gronk and maybe Zach Sudfeld out, I like the Jets. 13 points is a massive spread for an NFL game.
I also strongly considered the under, but 43 points is pretty damn low for a Patriots game.
Note: The line has moved since I wrote this. It’s currently at +11. I still like it, though obviously slightly less.
Bet: Jets +13 (-110), $110 to win $100 AND ML +512, $15 to win $76.80
Atlanta Falcons* (-7) over St. Louis Rams
This line seems a little weird, because it means that the Falcons are just four points better than the Rams on a neutral field, and that seems low. The only thing that worries me a bit is that Roddy White is playing hurt, and the offense struggled a bit against the Saints defense last week (ow). Then again, that was just one week, and it was on the road.
The Rams couldn’t stop Carson Palmer at home; can they really stop Matt Ryan on the road? St. Louis had some nice road performances last year (tied at SF, L by 7 at SEA), but I’m not seeing how they’re only four-points worse than Atlanta. And I don’t even like Atlanta that much.
Actually, I really don’t like Atlanta. I’m not sure their defense is good, and if you take away Roddy White’s health, their offense starts to look a lot less scary. It goes from a child at a haunted house to a fit, adult man with a large penis at a haunted house. Not so scary when you’re packin’ heat.
I think the Falcons are overvalued, but they’re good at home, and the Rams seem even more overvalued. It’s weird betting on a team you don’t like, but as Genghis Khan once said, “you gotta do what you gotta do, but if you don’t love the Falcons, throw them in a half-bet-sized moneyline parlay.” I’m with Genghis. Genghis rhymes with Bang Bus.
(Parlay coming in a hot second. Be patient.)
Baltimore Ravens* (-6.5) over Cleveland Browns
Both teams sucked last week.
The Ravens have beaten the Browns seven straight times. Baltimore is excellent at home. 35-7 under Flacco.
I am fairly sure the Browns were named the Browns because their offense looks like a brown object commonly known as feces. The Ravens gave up 13,000 points to the Broncos, yet will probably do fairly well against the Browns. Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Eric Decker and Julius Thomas have turned into Brandon Weeden, Jordan Cameron, Davone Bess, Greg Little and LOLZ.
Just like with the Falcons bet, I think this line is a bit short, but I don’t love the team I’m betting on. Jacoby Jones is hurt, and the Ravens were already dangerously thin at receiver. With Joe Haden locking down Torrey Smith… who exactly are the Ravens going to throw to? Anquan Boldin is large, but his body can only fit in one city. He’s in San Francisco. Derrick Mason died of old age. Baltimore’s receving corps is a graveyard.
But, did you read all of that? What’s that shouting at you? It’s shouting that the Ravens offense is overvalued, but the Browns will likely struggle with their own poop-laden offense. IT’S SCREAMING “UNDER,” MAN.
The number 44 is not an especially low total, mainly because the Ravens are typically so good at home. But this Ravens offense looks much worse than last year’s. Much.
Bets: UNDER 44 (-110), $110 to win $100 AND
PARLAY…Falcons ML and Ravens ML, $55 to win $48.35
Carolina Panthers (-2.5) over Buffalo Bills*
The Bills almost (and maybe should have) beaten the Pats last week, but were they really that impressive? The main reason it was close was because the Pats struggled, and they turned the ball over three times.
Buffalo averaged 4.7 yards per play. Their offense wasn’t very good. C.J. Spiller will probably be better this week. But 4.7 yards per play is very bad. For perspective, the Jets averaged 4.6 yards per play last year, 31st in the NFL.
This seems like a classic overreaction line, with the Panthers losing (in a very understandable loss, as underdogs, against the Seahawks), and the Bills keeping things surprisingly close. I’m really high on the Panthers. I like this.
Pounce!
Bet: Panthers -2.5 (-115), $230 to win $200
Chicago Bears* (-6.5) over Minnesota Vikings
The Bears are much better than the Vikings. The Bears have a good run defense. The Vikings ned Adrian Peterson to run for 900 yards to win games. He’ll probably only get like 110. Let’s bet $110.
Bet: Bears -6.5 (-110), $110 to win $100
Houston Texans* (-9.5) over Tennessee Titans
Don’t think of the Titans’ win as anything more than Pittsburgh sucking. The Titans were still dreadful on offense, and the Texans are built to blow teams out. Five of their six home wins last year came by 10+ points.
Near-double-digit spreads should make you uneasy. But value is value.
Bet: Texans -9.5 (-105), $105 to win $100
Philadelphia Eagles* (-7) over San Diego Chargers
I will continue to ride the Chip Kelly
belly
train.
Bet: Eagles -7, (-110), $110 to win $100
Detroit Lions (-1) over Cardinals*
The Cardinals aren’t good. The Lions are fairly good. Honey Badger would care if I bet against his team, but he doesn’t read SportsGrid.
Bet: Lions -1, (-110), $110 to win $100
Cowboys (+3) over Chiefs*
To cherrypick an example to illustrate the Chiefs’ home-field advantage: they lost to the SUPER BOWL CHAMPION Ravens by a score of just 9-6 last year. This means nothing by itself, but trust me, KC is a tough place to play.
Still, I don’t see how the Cowboys should be underdogs at a key number (-3). They are unequivocally better, and this line implies that, at best, they’re a point or two better than the Chiefs (depending on how much weight you give to KC’s home-field advantage.)
Bet: Cowboys +3 (-110), $110 to win $100 AND ML (+150), 25 to win $37.50
Saints (-3) over Bucs*
Every instinct in the world will tell you to bet on the Saints, and that’s precisely why I’m worried.
“But the Bucs just lost to the Jets!” the masses will cry. Yes, yes they did. But this is the NFL. This is Josh Freeman away from home. Never bet Josh Freeman away from home. He’s a momma’s boy.
The Bucs are significantly better at home, and this line implies that the Saints are 6 points better than TB on a neutral field. That seems quite fair. The Saints are a different team away from the Superdome.
Still, the Saints score points wherever they are playing. They once played underwater in Atlantis and scored 38. It was a record. Jimmy Graham had 37 fantasy points.
Seriously, the Saints failed to top 27 points on the road just once last year (@DEN). They put up 35 in TB. The Bucs defense has improved, but I fail to see how betting on the Saints to score lots of points is a bad bet. Their team total over/under isn’t out yet, but based on the current line, I believe it will be set at 25.5. I’ll update this bet if that changes, but if the number is 26 or lower, I’m all about the over. The number is too low.
Bet: Saints TT OVER 25.5 (-110), $110 to win $100
New York Giants (+4.5) over Denver Broncos*
Bettor’s paradise. Classic overreaction line. There is no way the Giants are 7.5 points worse than the Broncos. The Broncos looked amazing last week. The Giants looked like the
amazing
Mets. Erase last week from your memory. You’d pound the Giants (with a bet, not anally), right?
Bet: Giants +4.5 (-110), $110 to win $100 AND ML (+190), $20 to win $38
Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5) over Oakland Raiders*
My only rules in life:
1. Always bet against the Raiders as significant favorites.
2. Never bet on Blaine Gabbert.
3. Don’t run with scissors, but if you do, make sure they’re lefty scissors.
What’s the conclusion? Ipso facto, ergo, economically, one-quarter-bet on J-ville. Sliver of value, I think.
Bet: Jaguars +5.5 (-110) $27.50 to win $25
Pittsburgh Steelers (+7) over Cincinnati Bengals*
Is Ben Roethlisberger an Aborigine? ‘Cuz he’s sure livin’ in the land down under!
Bet: UNDER 41 (-110), $110 to win $100
Other Games
Packers* (-7.5) over Redskins
This line seems a little too high, but Robert Gimpin’ The Third looked way too shaky for me to consider betting this game.
Dolphins (+3) over Colts*
Sometimes, you see a game and literally have no idea what to think. My suggestion: take a piss, reexamine, and if you’re still clueless, don’t bet. See how easy it is to not lose money betting?
San Francisco 49ers (+2.5) over Seattle Seahawks*
There is no reason to bet on this game, unless you’re constipated and need your nerves facilitated from this thriller to accelerate your bowels.
Photo via
Betting Record 7-6 (.538) (-$61)
Dart-throwing record: 9-6-1 (.600)