I attempt to approach Fantasy sports the same way as I make decisions in my real life. Primarily, weighing the cost-benefit of every decision. Being able to objectively assess what to do should lead you down the proper path in determining if risk vs. reward is a worthwhile cause. It’s not incredibly difficult to do; it just requires an understanding and incorporation of all the variables involved. That’s generally where people go wrong.
Take the Adrian Peterson situation. Is he going to play this season? Probably not. But that’s certainly not a concrete conclusion. What if he shows up to court, gets slapped with fine, then the NFL suspends him for six games and he’s eligible to return in, oh, Week 12. That scenario is definitely not the likely outcome, but it’s very much in play. So, you need to understand your situation. Is it worth it to you to stash AP in the hopes that he can return and give your team a boost down the stretch and into the Fantasy playoffs? Simply put, YES. But, that’s only if you don’t have to give up anything of substance to acquire his services.
Look at your roster right now; do you see names like Darren McFadden or Brian Hartline wasting away on your bench? At best, these guys are bye week fillers… if your team is any good. They hold only a microscopic amount of value to your roster; they’re expendable. Point is, with Peterson likely finished, Fantasy owners are jumping at the chance to get anything in return for him – it makes them feel good – it makes no difference if what they’re getting in return is garbage or not.
Conversely, if you own Peterson, until there is an absolute resolution on his 2014 status, he’s better off being a commodity on your bench than selling supremely low. However, if you get a legit offer, take it. Since AP’s been deactivated (for the second time) and placed on the exempt list, I’ve still watched him still be swapped for the likes of Arian Foster, Gio Bernard and Antonio Brown. If you can still get 75-cents on the dollar, buy yourself out of the situation and be happy about it. Not happening in your league? Then you’re stuck with him.
In a roundabout way, it’s similar to the Josh Gordon situation. The reason getting Gordon was a focal point of my 2014 strategy was because it was low risk. It cost me nothing to get him, and if by chance he got to play this season, I added a WR1 for the minimal amount of expenditure. The reward of the gamble criminally outweighed the inherent risk from my side. Now that we know Gordon can practice with the Browns and will be activated in Week 12 (10 games plus bye), the return was worth the low risk of taking him late in a draft or snatching him off free agency. Even if you get off to a slow start and feel like you need a boost to your roster to qualify for the playoffs, trade him. Not only is Gordon an asset; he’s a very valuable one, more so for teams near the top of the standings that look like they can cruise to the Fantasy post season. Either way, whatever you paid to get Gordon, you’ve already turned a profit.
The same applies to Peterson.
For what you’d have to give up for his services, even if he never plays, there’s really no downside for your commitment level, unless you really value your last roster spot, I suppose. Some people are taking a moral stand against AP, saying things like, “I don’t want to own a child beater on my Fantasy team.”
Child abuse wrong. Period. That’s a uniform issue across the board. If it isn’t for you, then you have far more serious problems than winning a Fantasy football championship. But choosing to make a moral stance through your Fantasy team? What a hero you are. These issues are something you should take a stand against in your real life. Fantasy football is a game, nothing more. Would you not conquer Siam in Risk because you don’t advocate child labor? Come on now. Morality only hinders your chances of winning, and if you can exploit this misguided morality to your advantage, you swing the odds into your favor.
You must assess league awareness, though. It’s twofold: you need self-awareness and an understanding of your leaguemates’ tendencies.
This applies to any game, and this is THEE variable most Fantasy gamers simply overlook. The more people realize that like poker, Monopoly, Burgertime, political campaigns or the criminally overlooked 13 Dead End Drive are identical to Fantasy Football, the easier it is to win. You’re not just playing inside the rules; you’re squaring off with other people – people who generally follow a distinct pattern in their actions. Being cognizant of their actions must be factored into your decision-making.
Understanding football is huge, it’s a giant boost to your quest for Fantasy Football supremacy, that’s undeniable. That’s only first level game play, though. It’s far more important to understand the rules, your opponents and your personal level of skill if you want to consistently win. If you just picked a sample of your five favorite Fantasy writers, compiled their aggregate rankings, and just went by those every week, chances are you’d be in contention by the end of the season. But everyone can do that.
You can separate your team through manipulation of the rules and using your opponents’ tendencies against them. That’s where you create a value gap and give yourself the biggest possible advantage.
Consider it the Tampa Bay Rays’ Extra 2% philosophy, just applied to Fantasy football. Dig where no one is looking and exploit your competitors’ lack of knowledge.
Week 3: Waiver Wire Power Rankings
Week 3 RANKS: FLEX | QB | RB | WR | TE & D/ST
More Mayo: Week 3 Starts & Ranks Debate | AP/Gordon Value Now
#BINGEWATCH #BESTSMEARADEVER #MURICA
The #BingeWatch is taking a one week hiatus, so you can watch the greatest political smear ad of all time. Want to know now why you, an Erie Country resident, can’t vote for Rob Astorino? He cheers for the Miami Dolphins!!!!
The moral of the story: Don’t root for the Dolphins. Also, American politics rule!
WEEK 3 QB RANKS (Get Most Recent Updates Here)
WEEK 3 QB RANKS: 1. Brees 2. Luck 3. Foles 4. Rodgers 5. Staff Infection 6. Brady 7. Smokin J 8. Ryan 9. CAAAAMMMM 10. Romo 11. PEYTON!!!
— Patrick Mayo (@ThePME) September 17, 2014
WEEK 3 QB RANKS: 12. Russ 13. Dalton 14. #GENOPICKS 15. The RIV 16. Cousins 17. Kaep 18. Flacco 19. Tannehill 20. A Smith 21. McCown
— Patrick Mayo (@ThePME) September 17, 2014
WEEK 3 QB RANKS: 22. locker 23. EJ 24. FITZMAGIC 25. Big Ben 26. Cassel 27. Eli 28. Hoyer 29. Palmer 30. #HENNE 31. Davis 32. Derek :( Carr
— Patrick Mayo (@ThePME) September 17, 2014
EARLY GAME WATCHABILITY INDEX
WAS/PHI
MIN/NO
SD/BUF
GB/DET
TEN/CIN
DAL/STL
IND/JAX
OAK/NE
HOU/NYG
SUICIDE LAYUP
NE over OAK
WEEK 3 D/ST RANKS
NE
CAR
SEA
CIN
NO
HOU
ARZ
CLE
STL
BAL
SF
DEN
TEN
KC
CHI
SUPERLOCK
SEA (-4.5)
THE REVENGE SOCIETY
DeSean Jackson at PHI
Anthony Fasano at MIA
Ted Ginn Jr. vs SF
Jerricho Cotchery vs PIT
Santonio Holmes at NYJ
Browns vs Old Browns
QUICK READS
After EEEK the Cating out a useful Fantasy day in Week 1, finding pay dirt, James Jones transformed into Garbage Time Jimmy against the Texans. When you see 14 balls fly at your face (take a moment) you’re going to light up the stat sheet. It became very apparent that if Derek Carr is attempting a pass more than minus two yards down field, it’s directed towards Jones. And there should be plenty of garbage time available for him this week in New England.
After witnessing Andy Reid’s pitiful play selection at the end of the Chiefs/Broncos game, I’m now fully convinced there’s nothing but snack options on that giant, laminated “play sheet“
If you have Peyton Manning, I pray for your soul, especially since he was likely your first or second round pick. Here’s the thing, he’s at Seattle, where QBs worse than Peyton have had good games before; they just don’t happen often. Am I saying bench the best Fantasy QB? Short answer: Maybe. It depends on your options. I fell into the Jake Locker Hot matchup trap last week, and I shan’t be making that mistake again. AT SEATTLE is the worst possible start for any QB, and with other usual Top 10 options taking on softer opponents, I’d use them. And if Peyton goes off for three TDs and 400 yards, shame on me. Yes, it can happen, but it’s a low probability outcome.
Cam Newton is one of the guys I’d start over Peyton. CAMMMMMMMMMMM showed us everything we wanted from him in terms of health. He didn’t do as much running as we would’ve expected, but still managed 19 yards on four carries, and just missed rushing one in in the red zone. His rapport with Kelvin Benjimin was evident even if the stats weren’t there, and he made good use of Jason Avant, of all people. No one’s ever done that! His rushing stats will improve with each passing week, and he inherits an excellent matchup against the Steelers, whose defense has looked putrid against the punchless Ravens and Browns offenses through two weeks.
Am I really believing Antonio Gates spent every penny he’s ever earned to buy Dr. Brown’s DeLorean, traveled back to 2007 and brought his talent back with him to 2014? 1.21 GIGA WATTS!!!! I am. That or he’s healthy for once. Health, it’s not something that comes easy for Gates, so you may as well use him while he’s looking spry. It’s clear he’s still Philip Rivers’ favorite target and, more importantly, his most trusted option in the red zone. You can’t predict touchdowns, but receptions tend to be consistent. Through two weeks, the Bills have ceded 16 catches to tight ends. Give Gates eight receptions, and I’m sure he’ll score. Score more than Burt Reynolds at a 70s coke party. I just wish Gates had the wherewithal to grab Biff’s Almanac for me. Also, if Gates gets hurt, pounce on Ladarius Green immediately.
Question: If you don’t watch a second of a Rams game, do those stats actually count? They do! You just don’t notice. It’s why Brian Quick is stuck in waiver wire purgatory. Help him make it to the other side, it’s worth it. Quick has posted identical nine target, seven reception games this season, and has developed into Austin Davis’ first read. Looks are looks, take them where you can get them. With Tavon Austin out and Kenny Britt rendered inert, his role may actually increase in Week 3. Plus, he was the first pick of the second round TWO YEARS AGO; he’s not some scrub. Quick has pedigree, it just took him a while to get going. He’s on a roll now.
Why are Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridely ranked so low? I just don’t know how they’re going to be used. It’s why I stayed away from the situation in the first place. Everyone wants to claim that if Ridley fumbles, he’ll get benched and Vereen is a stud. That could be true… or Brandon Bolden is introduced into the mix, or even James White. If I could get equivalent value for either Vereen or Ridley, especially a player with consistent touches, I’d do it – regardless of position.
No need to panic if you’re 0-2. Ditto in two weeks if you’re sitting 0-4. Five and six loss teams make the Fantasy playoffs every year. You’re in a hole, but in no way finished. That said, 0-4 is not ideal.
For ONE WEEK ONLY, Jared Cook gets reprieve from the WORST PLACE list to exploit an awesome match up against the Cowboys. The ‘boys D has not been as bad as we all thought, but it’s early, they have time to implode. One thing they simply can’t do however, is limit tight ends. Week 1 Vernon Davis destroys them, then Delaine Walker posts career bests against them in Week 2. Don’t buy into Cook long term, but this may be the only time you can use him all year. Do it.
Call it a gut feeling, but Marques Colston is going to post a HUGE WEEK after his goose egg in Cleveland.
When you peruse the target leaders through two weeks, you’ll notice some familiar names in the Top 10. Brandon Marshall, Julio Jones, Calvin Johnson. Jordy Nelson’s the leader. Number 5? Andrew Hawkins. Hawkins had minimal sleeper buzz in the preseason, based solely on his proclivity to run routes near the line of scrimmage. And when your quarterback’s (HOYERTIME!!!) prone to check down, you’re gonna get a lot of looks. And, it’s happened. Double-digit targets in both weeks, resulting in 14 receptions for the year. He’s PPR gold, and has enough big play potential to break a few long ones. With the increased opportunity, very simple math tells me he should do it more often. MATH!!!
Thursday Night
just the
Tip: If Bobby Rainey is on free agency, pick him up before the Thursday night game, even if you don’t need him. If you simply scoop him up before the game and don’t start him, you’ve beat the rush and won’t need to waste any FAAB dollars should Rainey assume the full workload in Tampa or Doug Martin gets hurt, again. If the current situation persists as a time share, you can just drop him if you need someone this weekend. Oh, if Martin is a no go in Atlanta, I’d rank Rainey as RB 15.
I am deadly afraid of high ankle sprains, not matter what the severity. Yes, I am worried about Jamaal Charles going forward. And as long as he’s out, Knile Davis is a fringe Top 10 RB.
Mark Ingram succumbed to the curse of WORST PLACE, and is now sidelined for a month with a hand injury. Leaving the door WIDE OPEN for Pierre Thomas get a bump in usage. Thomas was already money in PPR formats, but he’s a must start in any type of league now. Sure, Khiry Robinson will eat into his production, but betting on the Saints offense at home is always where the smart money’s at. Pull the trigger on PT CRUIS’N USA.
Roddy White is listed as questionable for the Thursday nighter. While wide receivers tend to see a massive drop off in their production in Thursday night games, especially compared to running backs, Harry Douglas does become a respectable WR3 and FLEX if White is a last second inactive. Through two games, playing the WR3 role for the Falcons, Harry Doug has seen 16 targets, an equal eight in each game. Expect that number to get an uptick if White is watching from the sidelines. We talk a lot about RB handcuffs, but WR handcuffs could be just as valuable, and there is no better WR3 to hold on to than Douglas. Mainly because he hold value anyway, and if White or Julio Jones were to miss a significant amount of time, Douglas would be a low end WR2. Who would be the second best WR handcuff? I was leaning Jarrett Boykin, but two weeks of data have shifted my opinion to Davante Adams. The rookie’s quietly getting some usage in the Packers’ offense and may have passed Boykin as the true tertiary option.
Don’t sleep on Travis Kelce. His role expanded from Week 1 to Week 2 and he appears to be the only member of the Chiefs’ receiving corps with a pulse. Stash him, he’ll be a Top 10 TE in the second half of the season.
Everyone was quick to anoint the Saints division champs before the season, and they’ve been just as reactionary after an 0-2 start. But, both New Orleans’ games were on the road. This is the home opener, versus the Vikings, sans AP, starting Matt Cassel at QB. The Pats set the bar high last week getting Cassel to toss four picks. Rob Ryan will unleash the Blitzkrieg to see if he can double that number. Stream the Saints if they were dropped.
Going back to the final four games of 2013, Geno Smith has been a shockingly effective Fantasy QB. I know, this is #GENOPICKS we’re talking about here, consider this; over his past four games Geno is averaging 43 yards on the ground, breaching the goal line in four of them. That’s basically a free 8-10 points to start. So, whatever he does through the air is just a bonus. And, while the Bears have an opportunistic defense, it’s certainly not spectacular. Less so now with Charles Tillman done for the season. Obviously, Geno is not an ideal start. However, he’s a cheap option with upside to use in deeper leagues and daily formats.
Need more evidence that taking running backs early in drafts isn’t necessary? I present exhibit Donald Brown to the court. With Ryan Mathews shelved, Brown will see the majority of carries between the tackles and the goal line work while Danny Woodhead will continue to work the majority of passing downs and man the flats. Buffalo’s defense has been rather stout so far in 2014, but it’s a small sample. The Bills front seven is far better getting to the quarterback than limiting the run. And with the Chargers offense running so efficiently, this is a great spot to nab Brown off waivers and get him into your lineup if you need the help.
PPR WEEK 3 FLEX RANKINGS
NOTE: PPR scoring only truly affects outliers. PPR Ranks and Standard Ranks are similar with the exception extreme reception magnets like Pierre Thomas, Danny Woodhead & Darren Sproles (PPR Positive) and the stonehanded Alfred Morris, Frank Gore & Stevan Ridley (PPR Negative).
Week 3 RANKS: QB | RB | WR | TE & D/ST
More Mayo: Week 3 Starts & Ranks Debate
Pat Mayo Hour – Week 3 Rankings Debate w/ Jake Ciely
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SHUNNED!!!: Ray Rice
RESHUNNED!!!: Adrian Peterson
Probable: Toby Gerhart (Ankle), Wes Welker (Dizzies), Brandon Marshall (Ankle)
Questionable: Doug Martin (Knee), Lamar Miller (Leg), Roy Helu III (Quad), A.J. Green (Toe), DeSean Jackson (Shoulder), Roddy White (Hammy), Alshon Jeffery (Hammy), Eric Decker (Hammy), Cecil Shorts (Hammy), Allen Hurns (Ankle), Vernon Davis (Ankle)
Doubtful [Not Ranked]: Deangelo Williams (Thigh), Maurice Jones-Drew (Hand), Jamaal Charles (Ankle), Rod Streater (Hip)
Out: Ben Tate (Knee), Mark Ingram (hand), Knowshon Moreno (Elbow), Ryan Mathews (Knee), Tavon Austin (Knee), Austin Seferian-Jenkins (Foot), Jordan Reed (Hammy), Tyler Eifert (Elbow)
Keep Stashing: Josh Gordon (Suspension)
Calvin Johnson
DeMarco Murray
LeSean McCoy
Jimmy Graham
Julio Jones
Dez Bryant
Jordy Nelson
Matt Forte
Arian Foster
Le’Veon Bell
Marshawn Lynch
Gio Bernard
Andre Johnson
A.J. Green (Q)
Randall Cobb
Brandon Marshall
Demaryius Thomas
Antonio Brown
Knile(s) Davis
Julian Edelman
Julius Thomas
Keenan Allen
Cordarrelle Patterson
Percy Harvin
GRONKSMASH!!!!!!
Rashad Jennings
Andre Ellington
Vincent Jackson
Pierre Thomas
Pierre Garçon
Steve Smith Sr.
Kendall Wright
Marques Colston
Alfred Morris
C.J. Spiller
Eddie Lacy
Zac Stacy. Film Credits: “Super Mario Bros.” as Goomba
Roddy White
Alshon Jeffery (Q)
Kelvin Benjamin (ft. Biggy, The Lox & Lil’ Kim)
Larry Fitzgerald
Joique Bell
Montee Ball
Terrance West
Matt Asiata
DeAndre Hopkins
Michael Floyd
Brandin Weber Cooks
Emmanuel Sanders
Michael CRABPEOPLE!!!
DeSean Jackson (Q)
T.Y. Hilton
Andrew Hawkins
Terrance Williams
Brian Quick
Reggie Bush
Ahmad Bradshaw
Darren Sproles
Donald Brown
Reggie Wayne
Jeremy Maclin
Fred Jackson
HEY VERN Davis (Q)
Shonn Greene
Wesley Welker (P)
Eric Decker (Q)
Mike Wallace
Greg Olsen
Zach Ertz
Antonio Gates
Jason Witten
Martellus Bennett
Golden Tate III
Sammy Watkins
Markus Wheaton
James Jones
Victor Cruz
Shane Vereen
Danny Woodhead
Bobby Make it Rainey
Frank Gore
Chris Johnson
Chris Ivory
Doug Martin (Q)
Kyle Rudolph
Jordan Cameron
Jared Cook (OUT OF WORST PLACE, ONE WEEK ONLY!!!)
Justin Hunter
Dwayne Bowe
Greg Jennings
Darren McFadden
Toby Gerhart
Larry Donnell
TRAVIS KELCE!!!!!!!
Dennis Pitta
Delanie Walker
Niles Paul
Jeremy Hill
Stevan Ridley
Khiry Robinson
Justin Forsett
Steven Jackson
Carlos Hyde
Jonathan Stewart
Bernard Pierce
Robert Woods
Torrey Smith
Harry Douglas
Andre Roberts
Jeremy Kerley
Doug Baldwin
Jordan Matthews
Riley Cooper
Miles Austin 316
Brian Hartline
Hakeem Nicks
Mohamed Sanu
Jermaine Kearse
John Brown
Natsy Nate Washington
Marqise Lee
Allen Robinson
Dexter McCluster: Telling you not to LOL and Drive
Isaiah Crowell
Charles Dice Clay
Heath Miller
Coby Fleener
Mychal Rivera
Levine Trololo
Owen Daniels
Ladarius Green
Jacquizz Rodgers
Andre Williams
Mike Tolbert
Jason Avant
Jarrett Boykin
Andre Holmes
Rueben Randle
Anquan Boldin
Malcom Floyd
Lance Moore
Donnie Avery
Davante Adams
Denarius Moore
Aaron Dobson
Danny Amendola
The Walls of Jerricho Cotchery
Brandon Gibson
Corey Washington
Allen Hurns
Eddie Royal
Chris Givens
Sanotino Holmes
Roy Helu
Marcel Reece
Bishop Sankey
Jeff Cumberland
Anthony Fasano
Jermaine Gresham
Luke Willson
Garrett Graham
Scott Chandler
Dwayne Allen
Andrew Quarless
Lance Dunbar
Benny Cunningham, and his wife, Oprah
Alfred Blue
James Starks
Damien Williams
Kenbrell Tomkins
Country Music Sensation Griff Whalen
Damaris Johnson
Mike Williams
Andre Caldwell
Travis Benjamin
Cody Latimer
“High Speed” Kenny Britt
Brandon LaFell
Stevie Johnson
Devin Hester
Joseph Fauria
Tim Wright
Ricardo Lockette
Frankie Hammond
Brandon Lloyd
Ryan Broyles
Marquise Goodwin
David Nelson
Donte Moncrief
Joseph Randle
Stepfan Taylor
Leon Washington
Silas Redd
Chris Polk
Robert Turbin
Bilal POWWWWell
C.J. Anderson
Jerick McKinnon
Jonathan Grimes (Or, Grimey, as he likes to be called)
Lorenzo Taliaferro
Latavius Murray
LeGarrette Blount
Devonta Freeman
Mike James
Jordan Todman
Denard Dog Robinson
Cole Beasley
John Carlson
His Name is Logan Paulsen
Zach Miller (SEA)
Lance Kendricks
Eric Ebron
Brent Celek
Vance McDonald, Vance Refrigeration
Brandon Bostick
Jace Amaro
Chris Gragg
Brandon Pettigrew
James Casey
Jacob Tamme
LOUIS MURPHY!!!!!
Da’Rick Rogers
Kris Durham
Greg Salas
Daniel Herron
De’Anthony Thomas
Lache Seastrunk
Theo Riddick
Ronnie Hillman
Storm Johnson
Antone Smith
Ka’Deem Carey
Anthony Dixon
Darrel Young
Tre Mason
James White
Bryce Brown
Brandon Bolden
Travaris Cadet
Cyrus Gray
Junior Hemingway
WORST PLACE!!!
Oh, hai Mark Ingram
Lamar THRILLER
Trent Richardson
Jared Cook