New Year’s Day provides college football fans across the nation the opportunity to sit back and watch the first ever college football playoff taking place in classic venues symbolic of this great sport. While many people are making New Year’s resolutions and spending time with family, die- hard college football fans will be glued to their television screens to see how the drama unfolds in a new tournament format. The ultimate prize is hanging in the balance and four teams will battle it out to see who moves on to the National Championship game on Jan. 12, 2015.
Onto the predictions…
Thursday Jan. 1st 12:00 pm ESPN2
OUTBACK BOWL: Wisconsin +6.5 over Auburn
Reason: Wisconsin was embarrassed in the Big Ten Championship game against Ohio State and will be looking to redeem itself after their lackluster effort against the Buckeyes. The Badgers have a run-first mentality on offense that revolves around star running back Melvin Gordon. On the season, Wisconsin averaged 34.6 points per game and rushed for 314 yards per game (4th in the nation). Wisconsin has a heavy offensive line that wears down smaller defensive fronts and can dictate the tempo of a game early in the contest. Gordon has had a spectacular year rushing for 2,336 yards (7.6 yards per carry ) with 26 touchdowns. Badgers quarterback Joel Stave is most efficient when he works off of play action with the success of the running game. Stave has completed 53.6% of his passes for 1,229 yards with 8 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Wide receivers Alex Erickson and Sam Arneson have combined for 78 receptions and 7 touchdowns and are sure-handed wideouts.
Wisconsin will look to attack an Auburn team who lost its defensive coordinator (Ellis Johnson fired after Alabama loss) and had recently lost a teammate due to an on campus shooting. On the season, Auburn is allowing 149 yards rushing per game, however, on the road or a neutral field site-the Tigers are giving up 185 yards rushing yards per game. Since October 11th, Auburn has allowed more than 30 points per game in each of it’s conference games. During a six game stretch against Mississippi State (38 points), South Carolina (35 points), Ole Miss (31 points), Texas A&M (41 points), Georgia (34 points) and Alabama (55 points) the Tigers defense fell apart. Defensively, Wisconsin is allowing 20 points per game (15th overall in nation) and is allowing 118 rushing yards per game.
Look for the Badgers to methodically work down the field against the Tigers and force Auburn and into a “blue collar” type of game. Auburn, earlier in the season on the road against Kansas State, struggled in the same type of game plan by the Wildcats. Although Auburn won the game 20-14, Kansas State was in a position to “steal” the victory. Look for the Barry Alvarez and the Badgers to implement this style of play and grind out a low-scoring game against an emotionally drawn Auburn Tigers team.
Thursday Jan. 1st 12:30pm ESPN
GOODYEAR COTTON BOWL CLASSIC: Michigan State +2.5 over Baylor (Best Bet)
Reason: Spartans head coach Mark Dantonio is one of the most underrated “big game” coaches in college football. Dantonio stresses defense and Michigan State is a very physical team that is allowing 19.9 points per game (14th in the nation). Michigan State has a very solid defensive front that has recorded 37 sacks on the year. Led by defensive lineman Marcus Rush (7 sacks) the Spartans attack opposing offensive lines and pressure quarterbacks into poor decisions with errant throws in the passing game. Michigan State is very good against the run and is allowing 97 rushing yards per game. In order to win big games, teams must be able to force turnovers and the Spartans have done an excellent job in doing so-leading the nation with a +20 turnover margin. Offensively, Michigan State has a very physical offensive line and play makers that can stretch the Baylor defense vertically. On the year, the Spartans are averaged 43.1 points per game and are passing for 261 yards per game (39th in the country). Quarterback Connor Cook is an experienced team leader that has completed 58.2% of his passes with 22 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. Cook led the Spartans to last year’s Rose Bowl victory over Stanford and has big game experience.
Baylor is allowing 260 passing yards per game (280 yards on the road or a neutral field site) and Michigan State wide receiver Tony Lippett (team leading 60 receptions for 1,124 yards and 11 touchdowns) is a player that can stretch the Baylor Bears secondary. This will “loosen” up the running lanes for running backs Jeremy Langford and Nick Hill (596 rushing yards and 9 touchdowns). Michigan State is averaging 234 rushing yards per game (24th in the nation) with Langford leading the team with 1,360 yards and 19 touchdowns. Look for Michigan State to challenge the Baylor Bears “in the trenches.” Last season, the Bears struggled with the long layoff getting dominated by UCF in the Fiesta Bowl 52-42. Michigan State has the experience and the head coach to pull out the victory on New Year’s Day.
Thursday Jan. 1st 1:00pm ABC Sports
BUFFALO WILD WINGS CITRUS BOWL: Missouri -4.5 over Minnesota (Best Bet)
Reason: Missouri has played very well on the road this season compiling a 5-1 overall record. There is a significant speed advantage by Missouri in this game against the Minnesota Golden Gophers. Missouri is averaging 27.4 points per game and is led by quarterback Maty Mauk. Mauk has completed 52.9 % of his passes for 2,551 yards with 23 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. The Tigers are averaging 196 passing yards per game and are rushing for 165 yards per game. Running back Russell Hansborough is a speedy back who can take it to the house every time he touches the football. On the year, Hansborough has rushed for 970 yards and 9 touchdowns. Missouri’s offensive line has done a solid job this season protecting Mauk and allowing him time to hit his receivers. Wide receiver Bud Sasser is great at finding holes in opposing secondaries. Sasser has caught 70 passes for 935 yards with 10 touchdowns and will look to exploit a Minnesota defense allowing 201 passing yards per game.
Defensively, the Tigers hold a significant advantage over a slower Minnesota offensive line. Missouri is solid against the run allowing 135 yards per game and has been able to force turnovers this season. On the year, the Tigers are +8 in turnover margin and have been able to do it on the road with a +6 ratio. Missouri has speed off the edge with defensive end Shane Ray (team leading 12.5 sacks) leading an aggressive Tigers front seven that has recorded 40 sacks on the year. Minnesota has struggled stretching teams vertically and is ranked 124th in the nation in passing offense (131 yards per game). Minnesota quarterback Mitch Leidner is completing 49% of his passes and is very inexperienced in big games. Look for Missouri to show different defensive looks to confuse Leidner into quick decisions in the passing game. Leidner has thrown 8 interceptions on the season and the speed of Missouri on both sides of the ball will be too much for a young Minnesota team to handle.
Thursday Jan. 1st 5:00pm ESPN
ROSE BOWL GAME PRES. BY NORTHWESTERN MUTUAL – SEMIFINAL
FSU +9 over Oregon
Reason: Oregon’s lockdown cornerback Ifo Ekpre-Olomu went down in bowl practice with an ACL injury and will not play in this game. With Ekpre-Olomu in the lineup for all 13 regular season games including the PAC-12 Championship game, the Ducks defense was giving up 259 passing yards per game. On the road or on a neutral field site, the number rose to 279 passing yards per game and Oregon did not face USC or Arizona State in the regular season (potent passing offenses). Oregon will be facing a pro-style offensive attack in Florida State that will challenge the Ducks secondary vertically.
Florida State is averaging 34.8 points per game and has a pass-first mentality with quarterback Jameis Winston as their leader. Winston has not lost a game as a college starting quarterback (27-0) and the Seminoles have won 29 games in a row. Winston is throwing for 299 yards per game (14th in the nation) and has led the Seminoles to a perfect record while being challenged each and every week. Winston has completing 65.4% of his passes for 3,559 yards with 22 touchdowns and 17 interceptions. Winston has big game experience leading his team to the National Championship last season and bringing the Seminoles back in 6 games this season after they were trailing. Wide receiver Rashard Greene is a big play speedster that can stretch the field and take the top off the defense. Greene has 93 receptions for 1,306 yards with 7 touchdowns. The X-factor for the Seminoles will be second leading receiver-tight end Nick O’Leary. O’Leary has great hands and finds holes in opposing defenses. On the year, O’Leary has caught 47 passes for 614 yards with 6 touchdowns. O’Leary makes a lot of plays down the middle of the field on seam routes and creates mismatches against linebackers or safeties.
Oregon playing in the PAC-12 does not face many pro-style offenses like Florida State. This season, Oregon beat Stanford in Auzten Stadium, however, Stanford is not the same team that it was over the last couple of seasons. The weakness of the Seminoles offense this season has been the running game. Florida State is averaging 134 rushing yards per game (104th in the nation) and in two early games this season against Clemson and Notre Dame, the offense managed only 50 yards rushing per game. However, in the last two victories on the year against Florida and Georgia Tech-the rushing attack came to life. Led by freshman running back Dalvin Cook, the Seminoles ripped the Gators for 181 rushing yards and torched the Yellow Jackets for 179 rushing yards. Cook has been sensational this season and has rushed for 905 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns. He has the speed to take it to the house every time he touches the football and will put pressure on the Oregon defense to account for him on every play. Defensively, the Seminoles are allowing 23 points per game and are giving up 218 passing yards per game. Look for the month off from the ACC Championship game to the Semifinal to benefit the defending National Champions and allow the Seminoles offensive line to get healthy and peak at just the right time. Florida State remains undefeated as it moves on to the National Championship game with a solid victory over Oregon.
Thursday Jan. 1st 8:30pm ESPN
ALLSTATE SUGAR BOWL – SEMIFINAL
Ohio State +9 over Alabama (Best Bet)
Reason: While Alabama has been very impressive this season compiling a 12-1 record, the Crimson Tide have not played that well on the road or on a neutral field site. Alabama beat West Virginia by 10 points, beat Arkansas by 1, lost to Ole Miss in Oxford 23-17, won in overtime 20-13 against LSU in Baton Rouge and let a big lead slip away in the second half against Tennessee in Knoxville. Defensively, Alabama is not the same dominating team it was in years past. Under head coach Nick Saban and defensive coordinator Kirby Smart, the Crimson Tide were known to win the turnover battle each week and to dominate opposing offenses. This season, Alabama is -1 in turnover margin. For those that think this is not a big deal, keep in mind that Alabama has not been negative in turnover margin since prior to 2008! Statistically, Alabama is solid in run support allowing 88 yards per game. However, that number is misleading in the fact that against the better teams in the SEC, the Crimson Tide have allowed rushing yards well above their season average (Miss. State 138, LSU 183,Tennessee 181 and Auburn 174). Teams have been able to attack the middle of the field vertically against an Alabama secondary yielding 223 passing yards per game. In three games this season against West Virginia (365 passing yards), Ole Miss (251) and Auburn (456), Alabama was exploited by opposing passing offenses.
Ohio State will not fear the Crimson Tide entering this game. The Buckeyes have faced adversity all season long and have overcome the odds to record a 12-1 overall record. After losing All-American quarterback Braxton Miller prior to the season and then starting quarterback J.T Barrett in the last regular season game against Michigan, the team could have folded. However, they responded with a dominating 59-0 victory over Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship game. Ohio State is ranked 5th in the nation in scoring offense averaging 45.2 points per game. The Buckeyes are balanced passing for 246 yards per game and rushing for 260 yards per game. Ohio State will look to quarterback Cardale Jones, who will be making his second career start, to challenge the Alabama secondary. Jones has completed 64.7% of his passes for 375 yards with 5 touchdowns and no interceptions on the season. The time off will benefit Jones and allow him time to become more acclimated in the offensive scheme. Look for offensive coordinator Tom Herman to implement different plays that benefit Jones’ skill set during bowl preparation. Running back Ezekiel Elliott leads the team with 1,402 yards with 12 touchdowns and has the speed to challenge the Crimson Tide defense. Wide Receiver Devon Smith is a sure handed play maker that leads the team with 30 receptions for 799 yards and 11 touchdowns. Smith ripped the Badgers in the Big 10 Championship with 137 receiving yards and 3 scores.
Defensively, Ohio State is very opportunistic (+9 in turnover margin) and has created turnovers that have led to points. Led by defensive lineman Joey Bosa (13.5 sacks), the Buckeyes have recorded 40 sacks as a unit have been able to force opposing quarterbacks into bad decisions. Ohio State has 21 interceptions on the year with Doran Grant and Vonn Bell leading the team with 5 each. Look for Ohio State head coach Urban Meyer to pull out all the stops against Alabama in a great game that results in the Buckeyes winning in dramatic fashion.
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