The NBA Draft came and went this week and all the pieces have fallen into place.
After all the talk of teams trading up for the first pick, Andrew Wiggins was selected first overall by the Cleveland Cavaliers (as Vegas predicted because he was the huge favorite according to the odds). Analyzing potential Fantasy value is not as simple as ranking players down the draft board. As you will see, Wiggins does not hold the top spot on either my dynasty or re-draft Fantasy rankings.
Specific players landed in excellent situations well down the draft board also. My favorite, which I will discuss below, is none other than NCAA Champion Shabazz Napier. All these guys have talent but there are breakouts and busts in every single draft. The challenge now is to identify which is which.
Rarely do second round players play major roles in the NBA, especially in their rookie season. For that reason, below I have analyzed each player drafted in the first round to determine their Fantasy value now and moving forward. There are some second round players that landed in interesting spots. Only the ones worth keeping an eye on in 2014 get a special mention. Here are my thoughts on players drafted in the first round last Thursday night:
Andrew Wiggins – Reminds me a little of a Scottie Pippen-esque skill set in terms of Fantasy. Landed in Cleveland, which badly needs a scorer to compliment Kyrie Irving. Wiggins may fall into 16 PPG by accident in his rookie season and add defensive statistics. Solid proposition no matter what format.
Jabari Parker – My favorite prospect in terms of Fantasy. While his defense needs work (which you have no doubt heard by now), he will become an elite NBA scorer in no time. With Larry Drew out of the coaching picture, he should see stable minutes from day one on a scoring deficient Milwaukee team. Do not be surprised if his statistic line resembles that of Carmelo Anthony before long.
Joel Embiid – The most talented player in the draft will miss five to eight months with the same fractured foot that ended Yao Ming’s career. Hearing that should absolutely scare you and needs to be taken into account. Philadelphia took it slow with Nerlens Noel last season and will not be competitive yet again in 2014-15. They have little motivation to rush him back at any point during the season, so he very likely could miss the whole year. At best, he is a late round flier in re-draft leagues and will take some guts to draft in dynasty as well. He is the definition of high-risk, high-reward.
Aaron Gordon – An athletic freak that needs to work on his offensive game as a whole. Think Kenneth Faried that could develop a more Fantasy friendly defensive game. Orlando likes to play Tobias Harris at power forward so Gordon may come off the bench initially. The opportunity is there; his success will depend on an improvement on offense. May be a player who takes time to become a real Fantasy force.
Dante Exum – Many considered him to be a legitimate candidate for the number one overall pick. He fell to Utah at pick number five where they drafted Trey Burke in last year’s event. As seen with the Phoenix Suns, two point guards playing next to one another can be successful. One would think Utah is committed to the same plan, using their lottery pick on another PG. Richard Jefferson has no business starting on an NBA team anymore so it will be interesting to see if they use a two PG starting lineup off the bat.
Marcus Smart – Boston has made offers that include small forward Jeff Green in order to find Smart starter’s minutes in their rotation. As the team is constituted right now, Smart would come off the bench and play both PG and SG. They have made it a priority to re-sign defensive minded Avery Bradley, but the situation has yet to be resolved. Smart’s offense will be important to the Celtics from day one and would be a nice compliment playing next to Bradley. Not much downside to one of the most NBA-ready players in the draft.
Julius Randle – Double-double is written all over this kid even from the start. His Fantasy line should prove similar to Zach Randolph, but he is more athletic with greater defensive upside. The Lakers need help just about everywhere so Randle will be relied upon for heavy minutes from day one. Randle will be an excellent late round target in re-draft leagues and will have a chance to make his case for rookie of the year.
Nik Stauskas – I guess Sacramento has given up on Ben McLemore already? McLemore showed little progress in year one and the team went and selected Stauskas at number eight. Stauskas possesses impressive athletic abilities along with one of best jumpers in the class. He has a future as a role player in the league but not sure he will ever amount to much more than that.
Noah Vonleh – Huge hands and athletic ability cannot make up for the fact that his game is not fully polished. Vonleh is already a better player than fellow ex-Hoosier Cody Zeller but Josh McRoberts brought stability to the position last season (assuming he stays). Charlotte will ease him into a role but the talent will eventually win out. You may need to be patient with him in year one but by season’s end he should be a Fantasy contributor.
Elfrid Payton – The trade to the Magic significantly enhanced his immediate Fantasy outlook. This young team will count on him to run the point immediately. He will play next to Victor Oladipo, who can also handle the ball and should take some pressure off of Payton. Rookie point guards with full opportunity always possess the potential to break out (see Carter-Williams, Michael and Lillard, Damian).
Doug McDermott – Tom Thibodeau prefers rookies take a year to learn the system before logging heavy minutes. Expect 10-12 minutes a game from McDermott in year one. After his rookie season, it likely won’t take long before McDermott showcases his offensive skills at a pro level. Solid scoring and rebounding potential for the long-term.
Dario Saric – Saric promises he will play for the 76ers one day because “he is not a liar.” His estimated time of arrival is at least a year or two away. Avoid him in yearly formats and keep him on your watch list in dynasty leagues. This is a player who averaged 19.3 PPG, 9.3 REB and 3.8 AST for Cibona in the Adriatic league this past season. The upside is there.
Zach LaVine – This is a horrible landing spot for a point guard. Minnesota is already committed to Ricky Rubio due to his elite ball handling skills. Unless the team decides to move Rubio, which hasn’t even been talked about, LaVine will have no purpose on your Fantasy team in year one. Not in love with his dynasty prospects either.
T.J. Warren – Immediate playing time may be available if P.J. Tucker signs elsewhere. The bench was a strong point for the Suns last season so Warren will have to earn his spot. He is a very talented scorer and lost 20 lbs. last season to elevate his game, so he is clearly motivated. Once the dust settles with the Tucker and Eric Bledsoe situations, we should have a clearer picture of where to rank Warren.
Adreian Payne – Another NBA ready player whose talent I love. However, he landed in a spot where Paul Millsap and Al Horford man his positions. He should bring his solid shooting and decent post game to a team that could use a big man off the bench. Would have liked his prospects much better had he landed elsewhere.
Jusuf Nurkic – This 19-year-old kid’s buyout situation will allow him to join the NBA immediately. J.J. Hickson and JaVale McGee both battled injury problems for a majority of last season. Nurkic is a talented kid but is more of a project. He will take a few years to fully mature and see a healthy array of minutes.
James Young – Some swear he was the best NBA prospect on Kentucky’s roster last season. Boston was certainly happy to land him at pick 17. Again, the Jeff Green situation will affect whether or not he starts off the bat, but the kid can play. NBADraft.net’s player comparison of Arron Afflalo sounds about right in terms of his upside.
Tyler Ennis – Phoenix already employs both Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe. Gerald Green earned the rights to be first off the bench at the guard spot last season. There is not an immediate opportunity for Ennis and may not be for a while. He is a long-term investment in dynasty leagues.
Gary Harris – NBA caliber shooter who struggled a bit in his senior season. We have yet to see his ceiling. Arron Afflalo and Randy Foye sit ahead of him at his own position; both of which are coming off of career years. Do not count on Harris in 2014-15 barring injury.
Bruno Caboclo – Another project but with the athletic ability similar to that of Serge Ibaka. Excellent dynasty stash in case his talent pans out, but Toronto possesses the forward depth to wait out his maturation process.
Mitch McGary – Would have been drafted higher if not for being expelled from Michigan due to marijuana charges. Has future ability of a double-double machine but offensive game needs developing and hardly ever blocks shots for his size.
Jordan Adams – Excellent mid-range shooter who uses smarts to put the ball in the basket. Excellent cutter who finds himself plenty of easy layups. Memphis can use scorers but also loves Tony Allen and Courtney Lee. Adams will have a difficult time finding the court.
Rodney Hood – Two words: Gordon Hayward. If Hayward returns, Hood will not be worth rolling the dice on this season. If Hayward leaves, Hood may actually have an opportunity to start (assuming they don’t roll with both Burke and Exum in the starting lineup). Keep an eye on the Hayward situation if you are considering Hood in any format.
Shabazz Napier – I absolutely love this guy. Did NBA teams not watch his tournament run? How do you let this guy slip all the way into the mid-20s? When I look at him, I see Monta Ellis reincarnated. For his size, he may be one of the top five best finishers at the rim I have ever seen in college basketball. The big three have all opted out but LeBron James publically admitted his desire to play with Napier. His immediate value will skyrocket if the big three leaves but he is still the best point guard on the roster if they return. Love Shabazz’s upside both now and in the future.
Clint Capela – “Clint Capela we thought had the highest upside out of the top few guys in the draft,” Rockets GM Daryl Morey said after selecting him. In all honesty, the Rockets drafted a foreign player they knew would not be over next season to open up cap size for LeBron James. Whether or not they sign James remains to be seen but this was a money saving move. Capela comes with a giant wing span and the ability to rebound and block. He has a chance to be a Fantasy difference maker down the roadsimilar to JaVale McGee.
P.J. Hairston – A very efficient scorer, Hairston found a decent landing spot with the Hornets. Gerald Henderson is a decent NBA player but certainly not the future of the franchise. Hairston scores with similar ease and should give Henderson a run for his money when management calls on him. He may make a solid impact off the bench in year number one.
Bodgan Bogdanovic – Not expected to head to the US until at least after the 2014-15 season. The Suns will retain his rights in hopes that he makes the trek shortly thereafter. Ryan McDonough, the Suns GM, stated it perfectly, “We feel he has a good chance to be an NBA rotation player sometime down the road.”
C.J. Wilcox – Excellent shooter who will specialize in that very skill at the pro level. J.J. Redick and Jamal Crawford have that area pretty well covered for the Clippers at the moment so he has very little potential.
Josh Huestis – 6’8” power forward from Stanford is seen as a defensive specialist. He is an in-between player in terms of size (SF and PF) and needs work on his shooting and ball handling. Hardly a Fantasy consideration in any format.
Kyle Anderson – As always, San Antonio always proves they are the smartest guys in the room. Anderson is a big who handles the ball well and possesses a nice all-around game. He fell way too far because of lack of elite athleticism but should still end as a solid pro. It will not be long until Anderson cracks the rotation and begins playing big minutes on days the big three have off. Prefer him in dynasty formats but could even be worth a shot with last round picks in re-draft.
Second Rounders Worth Keeping an Eye On:
K.J. McDaniels – Landing in Philadelphia was the best spot Fantasy owners could have hoped for. There is a gaping hole at SF and McDaniels may get a shot to fill it. I would take him over guys like McDermott, LaVine and McGary in yearly leagues.
Cleanthony Early – Natural scorer that may end as the steal of the draft (besides Napier). Phil Jackson knows value when he sees it and went ahead and scooped up the former stud from Wichita State. Early will compete with two extremely injury prone players (Amare Stoudemire, Andrea Bargnani) for minutes so anything can happen.
Walter Tavares – 7’3” with a 7’9” wingspan. He will stay in Europe for 2-3 years but is extremely athletic for his size and has been compared to Tyson Chandler. Dynasty owners take note because he should be NBA ready by the time he decides to defect. Plenty of rebounding and blocks goodies are in his future for Fantasy owners who like that sort of thing.
Here are my rankings for both dynasty and re-draft leagues:
Dynasty Re-Draft
1 Jabari Parker Jabari Parker
2 Andrew Wiggins Andrew Wiggins
3 Julius Randle Julius Randle
4 Marcus Smart Marcus Smart
5 Joel Embiid Dante Exum
6 Dante Exum Noah Vonleh
7 Noah Vonleh Aaron Gordon
8 Shabazz Napier Elfrid Payton
9 Aaron Gordon Shabazz Napier
10 Elfrid Payton T.J. Warren