THE FLEXPERT v14.14 – Week 14 FLEX Rankings & Playoff Tips
Proud may be tooooooo strong of a word, but I was satisfied having Jake Ciely join me as the inaugural guest on THE FIRST EVAAAAAAAAAA episode of the video Pat Mayo Hour. Yes, I have a TV show all to my own. It’s OK to be jealous. In fact, I demand you to be.
Week 14 Ranks: FLEX | QB | RB | WR | TE & D/ST | Ranks Debate
Week 14 Pickups: Waivers/FAAB | RB Adds | WR Adds | TE Adds
Week 14: DFS Legal Issues | Early Betting Lines/Playoff Odds
Fantasy Playoffs: RB Handcuff Ranks | Playoff Ranks & Strategy | Best Schedules
Mayo & Lisa Ann: Rest of Season Outlooks | Breaking into Fantasy
I’m working out the kinks: New camera angels, hilarious stuff to put in the background, getting Jake LIVE on video from the other end so I can make fun the lack of decor in his apartment – that sorta stuff. Oh, and sound effects. There will definitely be more sound effects on the way. Like, whenever Jake’s head emerges from behind the graphic, a slide whistle will accompany the motion. This way, I can make him look foolish and destroy his credibly without actually making any valid points. I’m all about subterfuge; it’s much easier than research.
Soon though – BOOM – I’ll be fully operational. Consider all your DFS, football, baseball, basketball (NCAA & NBA!!!), golf, hockey, and hopefully, not soccer needs met. Subscribe to FNSTY Sports Network for the video version, and in the meantime, for the plain ol’ audio podcast, click the link.
Here’s sneak peak at Jake and I breaking down this week’s running back rankings from the pilot. Oh, we debate Mark Ingram too. If you’ve ever wondered why I don’t rank that awful Ingram, we hash it out…
Usually, I begin each FLEXPERT with some sort of strategy or nonsense (OR BOTH!!!) essay. Unfortunately, there’s really not much more to say. I went over some of my favorite dirty tricks and how to properly maximize the potential of your roster last week. Oh, there’s D/ST rankings and streamable TE pickups for Week 15 and 16 in there too.
Now, it’s all about reliability. If one whimsical start/sit decision goes awry, your season is finished. So, I’ve decided to list my circle of trust at each position. These are the players that have consistently produced at the highest levels, even in poor situations. I can handle losing my playoff matchup with Marqise Lee coming off on my bench because I didn’t possess the foresight to start him over Odell Beckham Jr. Flip this hypothetical scenario around, and I likely wouldn’t feel comfortable leaving a dark room for weeks, maybe months. Me, you, – everyone – is going to make incorrect decisions. It’s Fantasy football, it happens. But there’s a huge difference between making an incorrect move and the wrong move. Don’t outsmart yourself trying to be a hero. Even if a stupid decision works out in your favor, probability dictates it won’t most of the time. Why put yourself in that position? Regardless of opponent, these are the players I trust. Health pending, obv:
Quarterbacks – Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Andrew Luck
Running Backs – Arian Foster, Matt Forte, Jamaal Charles, Le’Veon Bell, Eddie Lacy, DeMarco Murray, C.J. Anderson, LeSean McCoy, Justin Forsett, Marshawn Lynch and Rashad Jennings
Wide Receivers – Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, Calvin Johnson, Antonio Brown, Jordy Nelson, Josh Gordon, Emmanuel Sanders, Julio Jones, A.J. Green, Odell Beckham Jr., Alshon Jeffery, T.Y. Hilton, Randall Cobb, DeAndre Hopkins, Golden Tate III, Brandon Marshall, Brandon LaFell, Kelvin Benjamin and Mike Evans
Tight Ends – Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Julius Thomas and Greg Olsen
Everyone’s circle of trust differs. If you want to start Kenny Britt over Mike Evans because he has a way better matchup, go for it. In the end, it’s your Fantasy championship, not mine. Remember, though, I did warn you.
Also, don’t f*** up. That’s actually the most important strategy to put into practice.
#BINGEWATCH
Subscribe to Pat Mayo Hour on YouTube
What’s that, another Pat Mayo Hour? YUUUP!!!! Cedric Hopkins from FieldandCourt.com joined me to discuss the ridiculous class action lawsuit filed against FanDuel for not immediately paying out a deposit bonus. We chatted about the legal hurdles Daily Fantasy sites may have to leap in the coming months, at both state and federal levels; how the NFL’s arbitrary personal conduct policy may lead to a lawsuit from Ray Rice, and the legal ramifications of Darnell Dockett live tweeting and taking pictures while serving jury duty. Oh, we tried to figure out how Commissioner Goodell would react to this theoretical situation: If a player loses a finger on the field and another player eats said finger, but claims he was protein deficient, would his suspension be more or less than Josh Gordon’s?
WEEK 14 Top 20 QBs (Most Updated QB RANKS)
Aaron Rodgers
Peyton Manning
Drew Brees
Andrew Luck
Tom Brady
I’m Philip Rivers?
Ryan Tannehill
Hunky Tony Romo
Matthew Stafford
Russell Wilson
Smokin’ Jay Cutler
Gonzo Kaepernick
Mark Sanchez
Ben Roethlisberger
Shaun Hill
Matt Ryan
Eli Manning Face
HELLO JOE Flacco. Iron helps him play!
WHOOAAAAA CAMMMMMM
Teddy Throwsevelt
EARLY GAME WATCHABILITY INDEX
BAL/MIA
PIT/CIN
CAR/NO
IND/CLE
HOU/JAX
STL/WAS
TB/DET
NYG/TEN
NYJ/MIN
SUICIDE LAYUP
GB over ATL
WEEK 14 D/ST RANKS
HOU at JAX
DET vs TB
PHI vs SEA
GB vs ATL
SF at OAK
DEN vs BUF
MIN vs NYJ
STL at WAS
SEA at PHI
JAX at HOU
WAS vs STL
NE at SD
ARZ vs KC
TEN vs NYG
SUPERLOCK
JAX (+5.5)
THE REVENGE SOCIETY
Percy Harvin at MIN
Kyle Orton at DEN
Martellus Bennett vs DAL
QUICK READS
Earning a full scholarship to Florida? Getting drafted? Making the all-rookie team? Having kids? Nope. Colt McCoyis the best thing that ever happened to Jordan Reed. Seriously. Two games with McCoy has resulted in 16 catches (on 20 targets), 163 yards and a score for Reed. This is that potential we were all gushing over in the preseason, before he kept getting injured, over and over… and over again. Just beware, all this usage will probably cause him to pull a hamstring at some point. However, right now Reed is healthy, so get him in.
There was only one reason Arian Foster wasn’t ranked inside the Top 5 RBs last week. Those pesky injury concerns. After playing 73-percent of the Texans’ snaps, I’m pretty certain he’s fine. And, his involvement in the receiving game makes him an especially attractive Daily Fantasy play this week. Foster is already averaging 3.5 receptions per game; that number could double against Jacksonville. The Jags give up more than six catches a week to opposing RBs, the most in football. At Foster’s elevated DFS price, many are going to fade him and save salary. DON’T!!! He’s the number one player of the week.
Some consider Jarvis Landry a PPR-only player, but he’s not; he just happens to have a higher floor in PPR formats. The way his role’s blown up over the past five weeks makes him startable in any format. Landry’s seen more targets than Dez Bryant and Jordan Matthews over that time, and 43 looks to teammate Mike Wallace’s 39. Now, Landry draws the Ravens, the most generous unit to Fantasy wideouts. And most of that damage has been done outside of Baltimore city limits. The Ravens allow a high league 237 yards per game on the road.
Sorry about recommending Isaiah Crowell against Buffalo. That was my bad. His awesomeness clouded my senses to the brutal matchup. This guy is good, more so recently. The last month, Crowell still has more carries than Andre Ellington and, even after the brutal Bills outing, more yards per carry than Matt Forte. To add on, with the increased snap count, CROWWWWWWWW’s added a receiving element to his game; 55-percent of his routes run this season have come in the last three weeks. Perfect timing, since no team is worse than Indy at limiting pass catching RBs. The Colts are allowing 62 yards per game to backs through the air. If Crowell gets 20 touches, and a sprinkling of goal line opportunities, could be a Top five play for the week. There is one issue, though. He popped up on the early week injury report with a hip issue. If he’s out, Terrence West would become a fringe Top 20 RB for the week.
One thing you can count on? The over hitting in a primetime affair. And with Philip Rivers decked out in his Sunday evening baby blues, he’ll come through against the Patriots. Mainly, because the Chargers will likely abandon their awful run game early to keep pace on the scoreboard. Oh, New England’s been rather generous to opposing QBs since September too. They’ve ceded an average of two TD passes per game since Week 4, and over that time, pivots have scored a minimum of 16 points in all but one game. Two weeks ago against Matt Stafford. Rivers is a top play this week.
The ebbs and flows of the season have certain players trending upwards when you need it most. Kendall Wright is one of those players. His catches and yardage have ballooned lately; his 81 routes run the last two weeks are his most in any two game stretch this year. Plus, no more Justin Hunter. Hunter’s been put on IR with a lacerated spleen. Ouch. And, this week, Wright gets the perfect opponent. The Giants are giving up 36 Fantasy points per game to receivers in their last three. Yes, Dallas has Dez, but what’s their excuse for the Jags and Niners?
Yes, we just watched the Colts rip the Redskins secondary to shreds, and you may be thinking, “that was Andrew Luck, he it does that to everyone. There’s no way Shaun Hill could do the same.” Wrong, Wrong. Well, five touchdown passes may be a lofty goal to set, but multiple passing scores is certainly achievable. Yes, Hill’s not great, however, Washington’s pass defense is worse. Especially at home. In their last four games in D.C., the Skins are giving up an average of 24.5 Fantasy points to QBs. And that wasn’t against Peyton Manning, Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers. It was Eli Manning, Josh McCown, Russell Wilson and Charlie Whitehurst banking Fantasy points. Hill is a capable stream in deep leagues and selling for a song in Daily formats.
Streamers, you’re on notice. While Scott Chandler draws a favorable matchup against Denver, in a game where you’d expect the Bills to be throwing it a lot, I prefer Jermaine Gresham as the best widely available tight end option. Somehow, his opponent is even softer than Chandler’s. Pittsburgh’s given up a TD to a big man in five straight, and withTyler Eifert’s return not coming soon, Gresham’s the only TE to do the damage. And the best news, he’s selling for just a shade over the minimum on Draftkings and next to nothing on Fanduel as well. If you’re building a super team, Gresham’s the perfect back end salary cap savior.
Quick Tip: If a team has a formidable pass rush, use them against the Jets. This week, that’s the Vikings, who’ve pounded the passer in all non Aaron Rodgers/Jay Cutler games. Basically, any QB that can’t get the ball out quickly is going to find themselves counting clouds fairly often. Take out the Packers and Bears games, and Minnesota’s generating five sacks per contest in the last two months. And Geno Smith is the worst pivot they’ve faced to date. Stream with confidence.
The Browns won’t name a starter until Wednesday, but it’s hard to imagine Johnny F***ING FOOTBALL not under center against the Colts. Terrific news if you need a QB. Manziel possesses that ever-valuable ability to pile up rushing yards and, more importantly, rushing touchdowns. And with Cleveland presumably playing catchup for a lot of this game, embrace JOHNNY GARBAGE TIME!!! Just make sure he’s actually starting first. Ohhhhhhh, what’s that, it is Wednesday you say? And Cleveland decided to keep rolling that corpse Brian Hoyer on to the field? The same Brian Hoyer that scored just one more Fantasy point over his last two games than Manziel did on one drive. Smart. Either way, if you’re playing roulette at QB week-to-week, what’s the harm in grabbing Manziel for upside? I think I’d actually play him over Hoyer in this game anyway. We’ll probably see him at some point after Hoyer stinks his way off the field.
Listen, I know you don’t want to play Frank Gore. No one does. For every one OK week he churns out, Gore posts three stinkers. However he’s in a really good spot against Oakland, because he’s San Francisco’s lead back. Primary ball handlers from the NFC West are destroying the Raiders. In two games versus the division, the opposition’s RB1 has posted 307 yards and 5 touchdowns on 43 touches. If there’s a week to play Gore and feel alright about it, this is that week. Just remember to say some prayers from now until kickoff because that stat is really stupid and ultimately meaningless. Fun though!
PPR WEEK 14 FLEX RANKINGS
NOTE: PPR scoring only truly affects outliers. PPR Ranks and Standard Ranks are similar with the exception extreme reception magnets like Pierre Thomas, Benny Cunningham & Darren Sproles (PPR Positive) and the stonehanded Alfred Morris, Frank Gore & Stevan Ridley (PPR Negative).
Week 14 Ranks: Ranks Debate | QB | RB | WR | TE & D/ST
Week 14 Pickups: Waivers/FAAB | RB Adds | WR Adds | TE Adds
Week 14: DFS Legal Issues | Early Betting Lines/Playoff Odds
Fantasy Playoffs: RB Handcuff Ranks | Playoff Ranks & Strategy | Best Schedules
Mayo & Lisa Ann: Rest of Season Outlooks | Breaking into Fantasy
Probable: Arian Foster (Groin), Latavius Murray (Dizzies), Jordan Reed (Hammy)
Questionable: Rod Streater (Hip), DeSean Jackson (Leg), Sammy Watkins (Groin), Roddy White (Ankle), Alshon Jeffery (Hammy), The Wreck of the Larry Fitzgerald (Knee), Andre Ellington (Hip), Reggie Bush X (Ankle), Isaiah Crowell (Hip), Julius Thomas (Ankle), Austin Seferian-Jenkins (Back), Charles Dice Clay (Hammy), Dwayne Allen (Ankle), Torrey Smith (Knee)
Doubtful [Not Ranked]: Montee Ball (Groin), Khiry Robinson (Forearm), Ronnie Hillman (Foot), He went to Jerick McKinnon (Back), DeAngelo Williams (Hand), Rashad Jennings (Ankle), Jordan Cameron (Dizzies), Cooper Helfet (Ankle), Jace Amaro (Dizzies)
Out: Brandin Weber Cooks (Thumb), Justin Hunter (Spleen), Miles Austin 316 (Abdomen), Tyler Eifert (Arm)
Cut: Santonio Holmes, Jason Avant, Austin Pettismile
BACK!!!!!!!!: Josh Gordon (Reefer Madness)
Arian Foster
Demaryius Thomas
Dez Dispenser Bryant
Calvin Johnson
Antonio Brown
Matt Forte
Le’Veon Bell
Eddie Lacy
DeMarco Murray, Present
Jordy Nelson
Josh Gordon
Emmanuel Sanders
Julio Jones
A.J. Green
The New ODB, Odell Beckham Jr.
#GRONKSMASH!!!!!
Justin Forsett
Alshon Jeffery
T.Y. “Gene Mean” Hilton
Randall Cobb
DeAndre Hopkins
Golden Tate III
Brandon Marshall
Jamaal Charles
C.J. Anderson
Jimmy Graham
Julius Thomas
Brandon LaFell Sexwell
Kelvin BenJAMIN’
Marshawn Lynch
Oh, hai Mark Ingram (Special Guest Rank: Fantasy Pros Consensus)
LeSean McCoy
Isaiah Crowell
Money Mike Evans
Kendall Wright
Kenny Stills to Pay the Billz
Julian Edelman
DeSean Jackson
Jordan Matthews
Jeremy Maclin
Keenan Allen
Jarvis Landry
Andre Ellington
Fred Jackson
Tre Mason
Denard Dog Robinson
Ryan Mathews
Greg Olsen
Jordan Reed
Alfred Morris
Joique Bell
Frank Gore
Andre Williams
Mike Wallace
Anquan Boldin
Stedman Bailey
Roddy White
Mohamed Sanu
Robert Woods
Torrey Smith
Marques Colston
Dolphins Starting RB
LeGarrette Montez Blount
Daniel Herron
Jeremy Hill
Jonathan Stewart
Shane Vereen
Martavis Bryant
John Brown
Andrew Hawkins
Andre Johnson
Marqise Lee
Malcom Floyd
Charles Johnson
Davante Adams
The Wreck of the Larry Fitzgerald
Sammy Watkins
Darren Sproles
Gio Bernard
Delanie Walker
Martellus Bennett
Kyle Rudolph
Jason Witten
Pierre Thomas
Latavius Murray
Bishop Cranky
Terrance West
Antonio Gates
Dwayne Allen
Jermaine Gresham
Scott Chandler
Reggie Bush X
Steven Jackson
Matt Asiata
Rueben Randle
Kenny Britt
Vincent Jackson
Greg Jennings
Michael CRABPEOPLE!!!
STEVE SMIFF SEÑOR
Percy Harvin a Time
Nasty Nate Washington 666
Reggie Wayne
Doug Baldwin
Eric Decker
Cecil Shorts III
Chris Ivory
Chris Johnson
Marcel Reece
Trent Richardson (Special Guest Rank:Fantasy Pros Consensus)
Carlos Hyde
Doug Martin
Tavon Austin
Michael Floyd
Hollywood Chris Hogan
Markus Cream of Wheaton: NOW WITH EXTRA GLUTEN!!!
Wesley Welker
Pierre Garçon
Dwayne Bowe
Allen Hurns
Andre Holmes
Riley Cooper
Darren McFadden
Theo Riddick
Bobby November Rainey
TRAVIS KELCE!!!!!!!
Coby Fleener
Mychal Rivera
Charles Clay
Larry Donnell
Heath Miller
Owen Daniels
Zach Ertz
Roy Helu Jr.
Benny Cunningham, and his wife, Oprah
Dexter McCluster: Telling you not to LOL and Drive
Chris Ogbonnaya
Ben Tate III
Branden Oliver
Anthony Dixon
Dr. Jacoby Jones
Philly Brown
Devin Hester
Andre Roberts
Terrance Williams
Jermaine Kearse
Harry Douglas
Fake John Brown
Travis All About the Benjamins
Hakeem Nicks
Jarius Wright
LOUIS MURPHY!!!!
Brandon Lloyd
Josh Huff
Paul Richardson
Brian Hartline
Preston Parker
Taylor “Sledgehammer” Gabriel
The Walls of Jerricho Cotchery
Cordarrelle Patterson
Eddie Royal
Rod Streater
Stevie Johnson
Lance Moore
Donte Moncrief
Brent Celek
Eric Ebron
Garrett Graham
Anthony Fasano
Tony Moeaki
Tim Wright
Niles Paul
Austin Seferian-Jenkins
Andrew Quarless
Levine Trololo
Richard Rodgers
Robert Turbin
Alfred Blue
Juwan Thompson
Travaris Cadet
Jonas Gray
Marion Brice
Devonte Freeman
Christine Michael
Brice Butler
Cody Latimer
Andre Caldwell
Ace Sanders
Cole Beasley
Kenbrell Thompkins
Junior Hemingway
Frankie Hammond
Jeremy Kerley
T.J. Graham
Marlon Brown
Toby Gerhart
Mike Tolbert
Chris Polk
Lance Dunbar
Joseph Randle
Charles Sims
Maurice Jones-Drew
Ka’Deem Carey
Joe Banyard
Shonn Greene
Knile Davis
Lorenzo Taliaferro
Bryce Brown
Benard Pierce
Corey Washington
Dane Sanzenbacher
Chris Givens
Corey Fuller
Ricardo Lockette
Greg Salas
Dri Archer #DANGERZONE
Damien Williams
Jonathan Grimes (Or, Grimey, as he likes to be called)
James Starks
Fozzy Wozzy Whittaker
Jacquizz Rodgers
Michael Bush
Donald Brown
Mike James
Ronnie Brown
John Khun
Bilal POWWWWell
Jordan Todman
Super Storm Johnson
Brandon Bolden
Cedric Peerman
DeAnthony Thomas
Leon Washington, The Professional
Daniel Thomas
Jarrett Boykin
Country Music Sensation Griff Whalen
Ryan Broyles
Brian ENOUGH IS ENOUGH AND IT’S TYMS FOR A CHANGE
Danny Amendola
Vincent Brown
Brandon Tate
Ted Ginn Jr.
Jim Dray
Chase Ford
Brandon Myers
HEY VERN Davis
Jacob Tamme
James Casey
Dion Sims
Clay Harbor
Brandon Pettigrew
Marcedes Lewis
Crockett Gillmore
Jeff Cumberland
Ladarius Green
Daniel Fells
Brandon Pettigrew
Brandon Bostick
Chris Gragg
Rhett Ellison
Vance McDonald
Josh Hill
John Carlson
Ben Watson
Denarius Moore
Brandon Gibson
Silas Redd
Stepfan Taylor
Zac Stacy. Film Credits: “Super Mario Bros.” as Goomba
Kyle Juszczyk
Jackie Battle
James White
Darrel Young
Jalen Parmele
WORST PLACE!!!
Oh, hai Mark Ingram
Lamar THRILLER
Second Worst RB of all time, Trent Richardson
Jared Cook
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