We’re already into the third week of the Major League Baseball season. Hopefully you’ve been making some good money in DFS. The good news is that we haven’t had a lot of weather interruptions in the first couple of weeks of the season, as that can wreak havoc on DFS players.
This summer you can win up to $250,000 in the FantasyAces.com World Baseball Championship, and there will be a live event final at Angels Stadium. Enter a qualifier and get in on the action for a quarter of a million dollars! The qualifiers continue April 20 , so you will find many useful picks below.
For more recommendations from me throughout the week, plus tips from other top industry analysts like Drew Dinkmeyer, check out DailyRoto.com for comprehensive free and premium DFS content,
FantasyAces.com salaries included below where applicable. (*** salaries subject to change ***)
PROBABLE PITCHERS TO START
MONDAY
Jorge De La Rosa, Colorado (vs. San Diego – $5,850): JDLR (groin) will come off the 15-day disabled list to start against the Padres, and he’ll be working at home which is usually good news. He is 20-3 with a 2.98 ERA in 30 starts at Coors Field since the start of the 2012 season. With those kind of trends he is a solid bet in DFS.
Wily Peralta, Milwaukee (vs. Cincinnati – $5,500): Peralta is just 3-3 in eight starts against the Cubs since the start of the 2012 season, but he has an impressive 2.88 ERA with a complete game and 35 strikeouts with a .216 opponent batting average. He has managed just three strikeouts in 12 innings this season, but only one walk, too. Expect Peralta to come away with a win and decent DFS points.
TUESDAY
Mike Fiers, Milwaukee (vs. Cincinnati): Fiers hasn’t racked up the victories against the Reds in his brief career, but since March 2012 he is 1-3 with a solid 3.08 ERA in four starts (and two relief apperances) with 24 strikeouts and just four walks over 26 1/3 innings. He also has a solid .232 opponent batting averages vs. CIN.
Travis Wood, Chicago Cubs (at Pittsburgh): Wood hits the road for Pittsburgh, and he is coming off a solid effort last time out with just three hits with two walks over seven scoreless innings in a win against Cincinnati. He has a good track record at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, going 3-0 with a 1.82 ERA in four starts with a .190 opponent batting average since the start of the 2012 season.
WEDNESDAY
Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati (at Milwaukee): Cueto has been dominant against the Brewers over the past three seasons, posting a 5-1 record with a 1.80 ERA in seven starts over 50 innings, striking out 48 with a .199 opponent batting average.
Jeremy Guthrie, Kansas City (vs. Minnesota): Since spring of 2012 Guthrie has rolled up a 5-2 record with a 3.98 ERA in eight starts with a complete game against the Twins. During that span the Twins have connected for seven homers in 52 innings, but they’re also batting just .230 during the stretch.
Clayton Kershaw, L.A. Dodgers (at San Francisco): Kershaw squares off against Madison Bumgarner in a head-to-head battle, but MadBum hasn’t pitched well of late. Kershaw has posted a 8-4 record with a 1.55 ERA in 14 starts with three complete games against the Giants since the start of 2012. During the span he has 104 strikeouts over 110 innings with a microscopic .189 opponent batting average.
Jered Weaver, L.A. Angels (vs. Oakland): Weaver is one of many strong DFS plays. He comes at a high price, but against the A’s he is usually worth it. Weaver is 7-2 with a 1.82 ERA over his past 10 outings against Oakland, most wins against any opponent since 2012.
Vance Worley, Pittsburgh (vs. Chicago Cubs): Worley won his first outing at home last Friday, giving up two runs with six hits over six innings in a win against Milwaukee, and he was 5-2 with a 2.28 ERA with 38 strikeouts over 47 1/3 innings with a .232 batting average at PNC Park last season. He is a solid mid-level DFS play against a subpar offense.
THURSDAY
C.J. Wilson, L.A. Angels (vs. Oakland): Wilson has fared well against the A’s over the years, going 6-3 with a 3.28 ERA in 12 starts with 59 strikeouts over 71 1/3 innings and an opponent batting average of .209.
FRIDAY
Danny Duffy, Kansas City (at Chicago White Sox): Duffy picked up his only win of the season April 13 on the road at Minnesota. It was also his only quality start. Since the start of the 2012 season Duffy is 11-8 with a 2.09 ERA in 23 appearances (19 starts). For whatever reasons DFS owners get better results from Duffy away from home.
SATURDAY
Stephen Strasburg, Washington (at Miami): Since the start of the 2010 season Strasburg has seven wins in 15 starts since the start of the 2012 season, his most wins against any opponent. He has 77 strikeouts over 79 2/3 innings with a .225 opponent batting average against the Marlins in that time.
SUNDAY
Kyle Lobstein, Detroit (vs. Cleveland): Lobstein might be a deep sleeper at FantasyAces.com for Sunday’s probable start, as he gave up three earned runs while scattering eight hits and two walks over five innings in a win at Cleveland April 12.
*** — schedule and opponent subject to change
PROBABLE PITCHERS TO AVOID
MONDAY
John Danks, Chicago White Sox (vs. Cleveland $5,000): Danks was tuned up by the Indians last time out, allowing four earned runs, six hits and two walks over just 4 2/3 innings in a loss April 15. Since March 2012 Danks is just 2-5 with a 5.71 ERA in 58 1/3 innings over 10 starts against Cleveland. Avoid.
CC Sabathia, N.Y. Yankees (at Detroit $6,050): Sabathia has actually fared well against the Tigers in recent years, but he is 0-2 with a 5.68 ERA and he looks like a shell of his former self. You can certainly spend your money a lot more wisely.
TUESDAY
Chris Archer, Tampa Bay (vs. Boston): Archer rolls into Tuesday’s start against the Red Sox with a 1-4 mark and 6.03 ERA in seven starts against the Red Sox since the start of the 2012 season. While he has racked up 38 strikeouts in 34 1/3 innings during the span, which is always nice for DFS owners, he has 26 walks and a terrible .270 opponent batting average.
FRIDAY
Rick Porcello, Boston (at Baltimore): Porcello was tuned up by the Orioles last time out, allowing eight earned runs, 12 hits and three walks over five innings Sunday. It’s hard to have any faith in him in the rematch on the road.
SATURDAY
Justin Masterson, Boston (at Baltimore): Since spring of 2012 Masterson has given up 19 earned runs (including five homers) in just 29 1/3 innings over six starts, going 2-3 with a 5.83 ERA against the Orioles. Balto. is hitting .296 against him, so go another way.
*** — schedule and opponent subject to change
HITTERS TO START
MONDAY
Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit (vs. N.Y. Yankees – $5,600): Miggy should have a nice start to the week, as he is 10-for-29 (.345) with two doubles, two homers, 12 RBI and a 1.037 OPS in his career against Sabathia.
Ryan Raburn, OF, Cleveland (at Chicago White Sox – $3,750): Raburn is a deep sleeper for DFS owners, as he is a career .341 hitter (15-for-44) with six doubles, three homers, 11 RBI and a 1.094 OPS against Danks.
TUESDAY
Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee (vs. Cincinnati – $4,850): Braun has torn it up against Cincinnati Reds SP Jason Marquis, going 13-for-25 (.520) with five doubles, a homer, six RBI and a 1.426 in his career against the 14-year-veteran. At this price level he is a slam-dunk play at FantasyAces.com.
Adam Jones, OF, Baltimore (at Toronto): Jones is a career .412 hitter (14-for-34) with three doubles, two homers and seven RBI with a 1.136 OPS against Toronto Blue Jays SP Mark Buehrle over the years. Jones hit .344 with a 1.003 OPS in 2014, and he enters the new week 6-for-8 (.750) with two dongs, four RBI and a 2.292 OPS against southpaws this season.
Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Milwaukee (vs. Cincinnati – $4,500): A-Ram has been a little cold lately, but facing Marquis could be the cure for his hitting ills. He is 10-for-27 (.370) with a double, triple, two homers, nine RBI and a 1.117 OPS against the veteran.
WEDNESDAY
Brian McCann, C, N.Y. Yankees (at Detroit – $4,750): McCann has rolled up big numbers in his career against Detroit Tigers SP David Price, going 7-for-14 (.500) with three homers, six RBI and a 1.676 OPS. He is worth a roll of the dice on hump day.
Justin Upton, OF, San Diego (at Colorado – $5,200): Upton has crushed Colorado Rockies SP Kyle Kendrick in their brief dealings, going 8-for-23 (.348) with a pair of bombs, four RBI and a 1.119 OPS. At Coors Field since the start of the 2012 season he is hitting .321 (18-for-56) with three doubles, three homers, five RBI, 12 walks and a .977 OPS.
THURSDAY
A.J. Pierzynski, C, Atlanta (at N.Y. Mets): Generally Getaway Day means backup catchers get into the lineup, and Pierzynski is one of the best around. And he is likely to play Thursday against Mets SP Bartolo Colon, as Pierzynski has two doubles, two homers, five RBI and a .696 OPS against Colon in his career.
FRIDAY
Albert Pujols, 1B, L.A. Angels (vs. Texas – $4,900): Pujols generally turns up the intensity against Texas Rangers SP Colby Lewis, hitting .467 (7-for-15) with a double, two bombs, five RBI and a 1.378 OPS in his career against the righty.
Mike Trout, OF, L.A. Angels (vs. Texas – $6,000): If you’re going to spend big money for Trout this week, Friday is the day. He has clubbed two triples and two homers with seven RBI and a 1.259 OPS in 20 career at-bats against Lewis.
SATURDAY
Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston (at Baltimore): ‘Petey’ has collected 14 hits in 27 career at-bats (.519) against Baltimore Orioles SP Wei-Yin Chen, posting five doubles, a triple and five RBI with a 1.344 OPS in his career against the O’s southpaw.
HITTERS TO AVOID
MONDAY
Brandon Phillips, 2B, Cincinnati (at Milwaukee – $4,500): Phillips doesn’t have a long history against Peralta, but what history he does have isn’t good. He has just three singles in 16 at-bats (.188) with three RBI and a mediocre .465 OPS.
FRIDAY
David DeJesus, OF, Tampa Bay (vs. Toronto): DeJesus is just 1-for-16 (.063) with a terrible .313 OPS in his career against Toronto Blue Jays SP R.A. Dickey.
Desmond Jennings, OF, Tampa Bay (vs. Toronto): Like DeJesus, Jennings has struggled mightily against the knuckleball of Dickey. Jennings is just 3-for 20 (.150) with seven strikeouts and a .492 OPS against Dickey. Avoid.
WEATHER CONCERNS
MONDAY
N.Y. Yankees at Detroit (lower 60’s, 80 percent chance of precipitation)
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh (mid-70’s, 60 percent chance of precipitation)
TUESDAY
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh (lower 60’s, 60 percent chance of precipitation)
WEDNESDAY
Miami at Philadelphia (mid-60’s, 60 percent chance of precipitation)
St. Louis at Washington (mid-60’s, 80 percent chance of precipitation)
THURSDAY
NONE
FRIDAY
San Francisco at Colorado (lower 60’s, 60 percent chance of preciptation)
SATURDAY
Boston at Baltimore (upper 50’s, 30 percent chance of precipitation)
Atlanta at Philadelphia (upper 50’s, 30 percent chance of precipitation)
SUNDAY
NONE
Johnny Cueto photo credit: Elise Michelle