THE FLEXPERT
You are going to lose. At least that’s what probability dictates. Sorry, math hates you – potentially even more than Cliff Yablonkski. Actually, that’s false. No one hates you more than Cliff Yablonski. If this something you haven’t come to grips with this yet, subconsciously, it’s spewing out of you. I’m seeing it all over the place. It’s what’s responsible for questions like, “Jimmy Graham’s matchup is brutal, should I play Ladarius Green instead?”
You want to win, and prove to everyone you deserve to so badly, your judgment becomes more impaired than mine between the hours of 1pm–10pm every Sunday. Kids, don’t get behind the wheel. So am I saying sitting Graham for Green is a bad move? Yes. I don’t care if Green outscores him by 30 Fantasy points in Week 14 – it would still the wrong move. It just shows a willingness to over-manage your lineup, a move that will inevitably sabotage your season.
Remember: The reason you’ve made it this far is on the backs of your star players. Matchups are irrelevant among the elite. Just play them every week and don’t think about it.
Instead of thinking about how you want to win, picture what it’s going to be like if you lose in your head. And no, that’s not an ambiguous statement. Do you want to end your Fantasy season with one of your studs going off on your bench? I would certainly hope not. Does this mean they’re impervious to a letdown week? God no. But there’s reason they’re elite: they flame out far less often than ohhhhhhhhhh lets say, Ben Tate in an awesome matchup – like this week. Because when you strip everything away, he’s still Ben Tate. He’s proven himself to be unreliable. If you’re going to go out, go out with your strongest roster possible.
Five years ago, I was watching the Fantasy championship in my home league from the sidelines – I’d pulled an “out smarting myself” move I would rather not discuss, ever again. Remaining engaged regardless, I noticed a curious lineup decision made by one of my friends who was in the finals. He benched Roddy White for Austin Collie. You see, in 2009, The Bills defense was staunch against the pass (crazy, right?), while the Jets were basically the same at limiting wideouts as this season – NOT GREAT, BOB. Never mind he was already starting Reggie Wayne in the same game; White’s consistency that year as his WR2 was one of the driving forces behind his finals appearance. But, White had limped into the game with a combined 6 catches for 74 yards and no scores the previous two weeks. As his diametric dimensional opposite, Collie had breached the scoring plane in three consecutive contests entering Week 16. And he panicked. It’s happened to all of us. And if you say ‘no’, you’re a liar – one whose pants are constantly on fire.
There were two things he didn’t take into consideration: despite his scoring orgy, Collie never had any more than 4 receptions or 39 yards in any of those efforts, and, more importantly, Roddy White was unsittable. He got ya there; you have to roll with him. In 2009, he was elite. Starting Collie wasn’t the bad move; he finished with a quality 6-94 against the Jets. Sitting White was. Hot Rod exploded versus Buffalo (much like last week), piling up 139 yards on 8 snags, to go along with two touchdowns. Guess what! The difference in points cost him the Fantasy championship. He’s remains bitter, and hasn’t made it back to the finals since.
Of all people in the league that year he was the one who really should have known better too. Teleporting back to Week 4, he faced a similar dilemma (coincidentally, against the same finals opponent) with White against an absolute lockdown 49ers defense. So… he benched White for, get this, a triumvirate of Colts receivers: Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie and a burgeoning Pierre Garcon. To this day it persists as one of the most ludicrous Fantasy plays I’ve ever witnessed. His logic wasn’t wrong; San Francisco had made stymieing receivers its business through the first three games of the year, but he was needlessly sitting him for guys he knew just weren’t as good. Like what always happens when you bench an awesome player, the Falcons upset the Niners at Candlestick 45-10 on the back of a monster 8-210-2 performance from White. A decision like that gives you bad Fantasy Voodoo, it’s undeniable. And the only thing that made those moves over the course of that season more hilarious? His team name that year: “(RODDY) WHITE POWER”. Which is still on my short list of favorite Fantasy team names of all time. It so perfectly hit all my favorite team name tropes: It’s clever, has controversial subject matter, includes a player actually on his roster and – cardinally – is written in ALL CAPS – as all team names should. Plus, the ironing is delicious.
Now, for the 2013 Fantasy playoffs, here are the players inside my circle of trust -The Unbenchables. They’re likeThe Expendables, but sorta the opposite.
QB – Peyton Manning, Matt Stafford, Nick Foles, Cam Newton, Tom Brady, Tony Romo, Drew Brees
Carolina has yet to be truly had by any quarterback this season. They’ve ceded an astonishing 9 TD passes against in 12 games, never allowing multiple scores through the air in any single game. But this Drew Brees we’re talking ‘bout, he simply cannot be benched. So, like those misguided nautical kooks, I’m going down with the ship if I have to. But that’s not going to be the case. This game’s in New Orleans, with the Saints coming off that shaming in the Pacific Northwest and, ahhhhhhhhhhh DREW BREES HAS BEEN THE SINGLE BEST FANTASY PLAYER OF THE PAST FIVE YEARS. He’s earned our trust. But if you’d like, go pick up Ryan Fitzpatrick and start the FITZMAGIC over Brees. Remember to let me know how that works out for ya… but only if I’m right!
RB – Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, Jamaal Charles, Knowshon Moreno, LeSean McCoy
Many are concerned about the Lions stingy run defense suppressing LeSean McCoy’s output this week, which I get. Detroit’s been incredible shutting down running backs the last four weeks, never giving up more than 38 yards on the ground in November. Doesn’t matter, McCoy’s too damn good – he’s immune to matchups. He squared off with the toughest defense to RBs last week and left with his usual 115 combined yards. There are too many components to the Eagles’ passing game for teams to concentrate on completely confounding McCoy. And even if they do, he’ll be active enough through the air to matter.
WR – Calvin Johnson, Brandon Marshall, A.J Green, Vincent Jackson, Dez Bryant, Andre Johnson, Antonio Brown, Demaryius Thomas, Alshon Jeffery, Josh Gordon
Yes, even Josh Gordon. Despite having, either someone I’ve never heard of, Alex Tanney, or someone I wish I hadn’t, Caleb Hanie tossing him the ball. Oh, and “shut corner” Aqib Talib will be tasked with taking out of the game. It doesn’t bother me. If you own Gordon, he’s likely the main reason you’re still paying attention to Fantasy Football in Week 14. So, you should know that he’s persevered all season with crappy QBs floating it in his direction. Hasn’t mattered. Really, how much worse than Brandon Weeden and Jason Campbell could Tanney and Hanie really be? As for Talib, he’s already building in excuses for when Gordon destroys him. Mainly, because he knows he hasn’t been the same since suffering a hip injury over a month ago. Gordon’s circumstances make him considerably riskier than players like Torrey Smith, Larry Fitzgerald or even Kendall Wright in PPR scoring; but none of those guys can swing your week like Gordon. And to me, that is most important. I benched Gordon once this year, in his 10-146-1 debut in Week 3 against the Vikings. I didn’t believe Brian Hoyer would be able to make him significant, and I lost my matchup because of it. In my face – not doing that again. I can live with Gordon posting a goose egg and me losing – which isn’t out of the realm of possibly – not him scoring 30 riding the pine. I refuse to have my season ended that way.
TE – Rob Gronkowski, Vernon Davis, Julius Thomas, Jimmy Graham
I think Jimmy Graham proved Monday night that even in a brutal matchup, when his team takes a giant dump on the field, he’s still awesome. Dream Scenario: I’d like to see Graham and GRONK compete in a Billy Madisonesque Tight End Decathlon to determine who’s actually the best – GRONK is a lock if Graham stupidly chooses “Burning Dog Poop & The Human Response” as his Jeopardy! category. Never worry about JIMMMMMMY. But I’ll wager some folks are feeling pensive with Julius Thomas. Not I, however. If he’s playing (and it’s looking like he may) he needs to be in your starting lineup, no questions asked.
D/ST – None. Just play the matchups.
Will all these guys come through? Obviously not, everybody has bad weeks every once and again. But of all Fantasy players, I have the highest degree of confidence they’ll come through for me with elimination on the line. And with the Fantasy playoffs being such a lottery, that’s the best chance you can give yourself.
#THROWBACKTRACK
Lurking like Bane – IN THE SHADOWS – the Olympics are now a merely three months away, which is problematic for me.
I’m an on-the-record Olympics hater. If I wanted to watch these awful sports, I’d digest them more than once every four years. Yet, I’m enamored by the theatrics of the spectacle. I thoroughly enjoy the international gravity of the event – the bizarre protesting, the economic turmoil and political fallout. It’s captivating. But mainly, I just watch for the opening ceremonies. Those are always legit.
A couple of my colleagues recently returned from mother Russia, and regaled me with a few observations: People can’t drive, corruption is culturally engrained, vodka is literally ubiquitous and people loose their shit when Boney M’s Rasputin comes on. I feel like that last one would not have been mentioned if it wasn’t true. So, fuse those four things, and involve Russia’s real greatest love machine, action hero Vlad Putin partaking in any/all of these activities:
Shirtlessly mount a horse
Come out
Claim to be the actual Rasputin, then pronounce himself immortal
Steal Robert Kraft’s remaining Super Bowl rings
Lay the taekwondo smackdown on Chuck Norris
Reveal his sinister scheme to install puppet regime in Ukraine
Polonium 210 anyone who dares to name names
Anything pictured here
… and VOILÀ!!!!!!!! Best Olympics ever.
WEEK 14 QB RANKS
WEEK 14 QB RANKS (1-12) Matty Staff, Peyton, Foles, CAAAAMMMMM, Brady, Hunky Tony, Brees, McCown/Cutler, El Riv, A Smith, Wilson, Flacco…
— Patrick Mayo (@ThePME) December 4, 2013
WEEK 14 QB RANKS (13-21) Andy #GINGERVITIS Dalton, RG3-9, The FIZTMAGIC, Big Ben, Glennon, Luck, Ryan, On the Case Keenum, KAEPERNICK…
— Patrick Mayo (@ThePME) December 4, 2013
WEEK 14 QB RANKS (22-32) Eli, Palmer, EJ, Tannehill, Cassel, Matt AHHHHH McGroin, #HENNE, #GENOPICKS, Flynn, Clemens, TANNEY!!!!!
— Patrick Mayo (@ThePME) December 4, 2013
EARLY GAME WATCHABILITY INDEX
DET/PHI
IND/CIN
MIA/PIT
KC/WAS
BUF/TB
MIN/BAL
OAK/NYJ
CLE/NE
ATL/GB
SUICIDE LAY UP
NE over CLE
WEEK 14 DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS TOP 15
NE
ARZ
SEA
OAK
BAL
SF
STL
CIN
DEN
KC
CAR
TB
BUF
PIT
IND
THE REVENGE SOCIETY
Mike Wallace vs PIT
Martellus Bennett vs DAL
Eli Manning vs Philip Rivers
SUPERLOCK
MIA/PIT o41
QUICK READS
Betcha Roddy White’s gigantic day against the Bills was wasted on your bench. Shouldn’t be bothersome though, if you’d been rightly sitting him since Week 2 you’ve more than won that trade-off. But it begs the question: How should he be treated now? Not even with scant a modicum of trust. That’s the answer. Maybe that’s too harsh. I suppose I wouldn’t feel uncomfortable starting him as a WR3 or FLEX, but don’t judge me for suppressing my sycophantic emotions after one good week. He’s not a MUST START, just a decent one. Don’t forget, he did his damage against Buffalo – the second most generous defense to opposing receivers. That said, it’s not like the Packers are the Seahawks, it’s a good matchup, but I still like Harry Douglas more.
If you’re out of playoff contention and gearing for a consolation round run, don’t. You lost. Stop taking the good waiver wire players away from the teams that actually have something to play for. This is a Fantasy sin topped only by any league that plays into Week 17. Unless money’s on the line, that’s fair game.
It’s kind of mind boggling that Rashard Mendenhall is relevant. He’s like that loser brother who’s listed as an “owner” of a family business, but just gets paid to stay at home because he’s useless. But, being buddies with Bruce Arians kept Mendy in the mix all season, and now, with the Juke of Ellington gimped up, it’s all him. I suppose sometimes it’s just best to have good timing; this week he has the good fortune of drawing the Rams – the fifth softest team vs Fantasy running backs. There’s also a caveat, whenever he does anything productive, you get to yell out MENDENHALL!!!!!!!! – like you’re a 60’s Spider-Man villain. It’s fun, and annoys the Hell out of anyone within a 25-foot radius.
Keep an eye out for anyone dropping Colin Kaepernick after he flames out against the Seahawks, as the 49ers schedule gets very generous to QBs in Weeks 15 and 16.
You know what the Vikings hate? Playing defense. True story. And for as bad as they are against the run, they’re even worse versus the pass. It’s astonishing. They’ve given up at least one score to the position in 12 straight games, and they have no answer for vertical receivers. It’s like they got their playbook, but Leslie Frazier forgot to include how to defend 9-routes. That, or the game plan is just standing motionless and watch guys run by you. Either way, Torrey Smith is well versed in running sprints down the field, and we know Joe Flacco isn’t afraid to take some shots deep.
Can anyone explain what happened to Nate Burleson last week? The only thing I can muster up as the reason for his Turkey Day debacle: Maybe he didn’t share any of his delicious free DiGiornos with Matthew Stafford. Actually, I’m just calling it an aberration. He’d posted at least 6 catches in every game until Thanksgiving and gets the Eagles. There are two steadfast rules of Fantasy in 2013 – Stream defense sagainst #GENOPICKS and start WR2s against Philly. So do it.
Don’t be vexed by of the idea of Philip Rivers facing the Giants. While they’ve curbed QB production in four of the last six weeks, know that those games were against Josh Freeman, Matt Barkley, Terrelle Pryor and Scott Tolzien; also known as the least intimidating foursome outside of a blind golf tournament. El Riv will be fine.
This is making me queasy just typing it, but – deep, deep breath – if you don’t own a top tier tight end – where’s my paper bag? – I’m taking Jared Cook off the WORST PLACE rankings for his matchup with the Cardinals. Tight ends destroy Arizona, it’s a thing. Now, there’s definitely a 50/50 chance he reveals his true Jared Cook colors and finishes with negative points, but you have to play the odds on this one – and TE is the perfect roster slot to try and sock a dinger. The Cards have allowed 10 TDs to tight ends in the last seven games. Just remember, after Cook goes off, don’t let that fool you into starting him in Week 15. And you know what? If you play in the deepest of deep leagues, why not give the arm a pull and gamble it comes up Lance Kendricks. Even Brent Celek managed to score against them last week.
If you’re on a bye, or just want to partake in some Fantasy subversion against your biggest threats, embrace your inner pirate – be cutthroat,
Metis
MATEY! Just because you may not need a defense or tight end, your competitors may. Picking up player so someone else can’t is subterfuge at the highest level. Don’t feel bad about it, any move that results in you hoisting a championship is a worthy one.
Hey there Ladarius Green, where’ve you been since the preseason? Mr. Green flashed supreme talent heading into the year, earning him some sleeper buzz. I guess he felt like that earned him a two-and-a-half-month vacation. But he’s back now, and he is being used to stretch the middle of the field for the Chargers. Probably has something to do with Antonio Gates looking like he’s running underwater at all times. Green’s earned either a touchdown or 80 yards in three straight, and he’ll keep rollin, rollin, rollin with the Giants coming west – New York’s given up 3 TDs to tight ends in its past 2 games. This week – and rest of the season – you want Green over Gates.
For whatever reason (or these reasons), Stevie Johnson consistently gets the best of Darrelle Revis. No need to fret.
I remain convinced the ‘G’ in Chris Ogybonnaya’s last name is just to identify he’s straight gangsta. Otherwise it’s needlessly confusing. Here’s the thing about the Og Dawg, he’s unreliable. Some weeks his touches just evaporate for no real reason. However, this seems like a good spot for him. The Browns are going to be down against the Pats early, and whoever is under center, I’ll bet he loves checking down. And catching is the Ogybonnaya’s greatest skill.
You may have to sit Zac Stacy. Which sucks. And believe me I know; I actually own him on every team I have sans one. But he’s not in the circle of trust, so I can’t justify playing him over a better option. Arizona’s allowing fewer than 50 yards on the ground and half that through the air per game to running backs. Oh, and a just a trio of scores. Stacy’s only saving grace is his workload. Maybe he flukes into a goal line touch or two, but I don’t want to depend on that unless it’s a last resort.
And finally……… for my only kicker advice for the year: get one playing inside a dome for the Fantasy playoffs. Weather doesn’t really affect anyone all that much, except kickers. Don’t chance the elements at your most volatile position. Play for the safe 7 points.
WEEK 14 FLEX RANKS
Remember to check back Saturday evening for an injury update and Sunday after the Inactives are released for full rankings adjustments and fresh compliment of QUICK READS covering the Fantasy spin on every news event.
Rankings set to PPR scoring format:
1 point for every 10 yards Rushing/Receiving
1 point per reception
6 points per Touchdown
Points per reception (PPR) scoring must be treated differently than standard leagues. Receivers and scat backs like Darren Sproles, Danny Woodhead and Roy Helu have inflated value in PPR scoring. As do possession receivers – Wes Welker, Danny Amendola and others in their mold are safer options. Catches tend to be more consistent and predictive. Obviously, touchdowns and yards are still important, but when considering FLEX options exploit any advantage you can. For standard scoring, running backs with hands of stone like Alfred Morris, BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Stevan Ridley all see their stocks rise without catches in the mix.
Calvin Johnson
Matt Forte
Knowshon Moreno
Jamaal Charles
Rob Gronkowski
Jimmy Graham
Brandon Marshall
A.J. Green
Adrian Peterson
Demarco Murray
LeSean McCoy
Vincent Jackson
Dez Bryant
Andre Johnson
DeSean Jackson
Antonio Brown
Demaryius Thomas
Torrey Smith
Reggie Bush
Marshawn Lynch
Alshon Jeffery
Victor Cruz
Julius Thomas
Josh Gordon
Shane Vereen
Danny Petrified Woodhead
Chris Johnson
Ben Tate
Gio Bernard
Riley Cooper
Pierre Garcon
Michael Floyd
Keenan Allen Waynes
Larry Fitzgerald
“Too Nuked” Dwayne Bowe
Kendall Wright
Jordy Nelson
Julian Edelman
Harry Douglas
Andre Brown
Alfred Morris
Bobby Rainey
Le’Veon Bell
Wes Welker
Sideshow Cecil Shorts
Eric Decker
Mike Wallace
Eddie Lacy
Ray Rice
Fred Jackson
CJ SPILLLLLAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHH
Rashard Mendenhall
Steven Jackson
Nate Burleson
Stevie Johnson
Steve Smith
Golden Tate
HEY VERN Davis
Martellus Bennett
Jason Witten
Greg Olsen
Ladarius Green
Jared Cook (On one-week loan from WORST PLACE RANKS)
James Jones
T.Y. Hilton
Rod Streater
Frank Gore
Maurice Jones-Drew
Pierre Thomas
Zac Stacy
Darren Sproles
Ace Sanders
Danny Amendola
Anquan Boldin
Doug Baldwin
Charles Dice Clay
Heath Miller
Coby Fleener
Jordan Reed
Chris Ogbonnaya
Roddy White
Chris Ivory
Donald Brown
Ryan Mathews
Rashad Jennings
Reuben Randle
Jacoby Jones
Emmanuel Sanders, THE COLONEL
Marques Colston
Hakeem Nicks
CRAB PEOPLE!!!!
Greg Jennings
Delanie Walker
Antonio Gates
Tony Gonzalez
Brandon LaFell SEXWELL
Andre Holmes
Kris Durham
Dexter McSuckster
BenJarvus Green-Ellis
Joique Bell
DeAngelo Williams
Bilal POWWWWell
Cordarrelle Patterson
Brian Hartline
DeAndre Hopkins
Jarrett Boykin
Robert Woods
Kenny Stills to Pay The Bills
Marquise Goodwin
Mohamed Sanu
The Walls of Jericho Cotchery
Tavon Austin 3:16
Justin Hunter
Andre Roberts
Jacquizz Rodgers
Mike Tolbert
Marcel Reece
LeGarrette Blount
Fozzy Wozzy Whittaker
Willis McGahee
Jordan Cameron
Dallas Clark
Garrett Graham
Lance Kendricks
Bernard Pierce
Peyton Hillis
Dennis “El Amenaza” Johnson
Jonathan Stewart
David Nelson
Josh Boyce
Tiquan Underwood
Nate Washington
TED GINN JR.
Chris Givens
Rishard Mathews
Terrance Williams
Mike WHO DAT Brown
Lance Moore
LaVon Brazil
Darius Johnson
MARV Jones
Tim Wright
Donnie Avery
Marlon Brown
Devone Bess
Jerome Simpson
Brandon Myers
Brandon Pettigrew
Anthony Fasano
Tim Wright
Scott Chandler
Jermaine Gresham
Toby Gerhart
Jonathan Dwyer
Kendall Hunter
Roy Helu
Mike Gillislee
Zach Ertz
Rob Housler
“Swimfan” Stepfan Taylor
Josh Morgan
Cole Beasley
Aldrick Robinson
Miles Austin 3:16
James Starks
Michael Bush
Benny Cunningham and his wife, Oprah
Brandon Bolden
Bryce Brown
Brian Leonard
Jordan Todman
Shonn Greene
Greg Salas
Vincent Brown
Mario Manningham
Tandon Doss
T.J. Graham
Greg Little
DeVier Posey
Robert Meachem
Markus Wheaton
Javon Jermaine Kearse
Santana Moss
Jason Avant
Darrel Young
Antone Smith
Felix Jones
Ronnie Brown
Robert Turbin
Tashard Choice
Nard Dog Robinson
Knile Davis
Khiry Robinson
Austin Pettisphile
John Carlson
Tyler Eifert
Brent Celek
Not Christian Fauria
Marcedes Lewis
Zach Sudfeld
Marlon Moore
Nick Toon
Stephen Hill
Dwayne Harris
Julius Wright
Jeremy Ross
Brian Quick
Jacoby Ford
Drew Davis
Anthony Dixon
John Kuhn
Alfonso Smith
Isaiah Pead
Clay Harbor
Myles White
Marcus Thigpen
Andrew Quarless
Worst Place:
Mark Ingram
Jared Cook
Trent Richardson
Lamar Miller
Zach Miller
How’d Ya Miss…
Week 14 QB Ranks, Sleepers & Sits
Week 14 RB Ranks, Sleepers & Sits
Week 14 WR Ranks, Sleepers & Sits
Pat Mayo Hour – Week 14 Waiver Wire Power Rankings: Playoff Pick ups
Check out our full suite of Fantasy Sports radio shows and podcasts! Listen to your favorite RotoExperts live or on demand, including the legendary Lenny Melnick, Tim McCullough, Jake Ciely, Gregg Sussman and many more. We cover Fantasy Football all week long and baseball year-round right here on ROTORADIO.
Photo via