The Miami Marlins and San Diego Padres will begin a four-game series on Thursday night. When these two teams played earlier in the year, the Marlins won the series 2-1.
The Marlins are one of the hottest teams in baseball right now, winning eight of their last nine game and moving into a tie in first place in the NL East. While the Marlins absolutely kill it at home, they’re a brutal 2-10 on the road, which is by far the worst road record in the majors. The Marlins pitching staff has been dominant during this stretch, allowing three or fewer runs in six of their last nine games, including back-to-back shutouts over the New York Mets. Jacob Turner looks for his first win of the season, as he’s allowed 11 runs in 10 innings and struck out four batters. This will be Turner’s second career start against the Padres.
The Padres just lost two of three to the Kansas City Royals and six of their last eight overall. The Padres offense continues to suffer, as they’ve scored two or fewer runs in five of their last eight games. There are only three Padres hitters who have more than seven RBI, and three hitters have struck out more than 30 times. The Padres are 4-20 this season when being held to three or less runs. Getting the nod on Thursday is Ian Kennedy, who is 2-4 with a 3.43 ERA and has 44 strikeouts in 42 innings. Kennedy is 3-1 with a 3.52 ERA in five career starts against the Marlins.
The Marlins are 3-13 in Turner's last 16 starts and 1-8 in Turner's last 9 road starts. The Padres are 5-1 in Kennedy's last 6 starts with 4 days of rest and 0-4 in Kennedy's last 4 home starts. The Marlins are 3-8 in the last 11 meetings in San Diego.
Despite how poorly the Marlins play on the road and Turner's bad luck in starts, it's tough to bet against a team that is red hot and continues to find ways to win. It's also tough to back a team such as the Padres who can't score runs.
Give me the Marlins and the plus money.