The 2015 season will be a fascinating watch where the Geelong Football Club is concerned. Consistently written off season after season, the perennial doomsdayers may finally be vindicated after a 2014 finals campaign that saw them exit relatively meekly in straight sets. The unofficial moniker of ‘greatest team of the modern era’ has now unquestionably been handed over to fierce rivals Hawthorn and the activity during trade week suggests the Cats might be prepared to take a gamble to go to the well again one last time before an expected raft of retirements in the next year or two.
So watching just how Geelong fare in the next 6 months will be interesting. If the gambles pay off and the kids develop, then Geelong will probably sail unnoticed, without much fan fare into the top 4. However, if the gambles don’t pay off, the kids don’t come on and the ageing warriors succumb to injury and form, then who knows how far the Cats might slide? The Cats were the masters of winning the close ones in 2014. 7 wins by under 2 goals with the only loss under that margin being the Semi Final defeat to North Melbourne. Geelong did belt a number of the poorer sides in 2014 and that trend will continue this season, however the 7-1 ratio of close ones is unlikely to continue in 2015 and if it doesn’t, Geelong will find themselves closer to 8th than 4th.
The worry externally is that Geelongs best players are all in the twilight of their careers, or in the case of skipper Joel Selwood, play the game in a way that will likely cut years off his career. There are real question marks on just how good the younger players are and there are a few glaring gaps that have been exposed on field in the past year or two. In particular, the lack of a small shut down defender has seen 25 occasions in the past 2 seasons where an opposition small forward has kicked 3 or more goals against the Cats. Hardly massive bags or cause for major alarm, but the regular frequency with which occupants of ‘starvation corner’ seem to kick goals against Geelong would be worrying Chris Scott. The lack of consistency and injury queries on the rucks is a concern too.
For all the negativity emanating from the first three paragraphs of this preview I actually think the Cats will continue to prove the doubters wrong in 2015. Geelong have proven time and time again that they just know how to win and know how to get the best out of their recruits and a top 4 finish is definitely within reach. A season of intrigue awaits….
The Elite
Joel Selwood
What an amazing career Selwood has had to date! A triple premiership player, 4 All-Australian selections (including the past 2 seasons as Captain), 3 Best and Fairest awards and the Nab Rising Star award. All before age 27. The only thing missing off the mantle piece is a Norm Smith Medal and a Brownlow – and nobody would argue against him achieving both of those before his career ends.
Despite his outstanding achievements, Selwood, maybe more than any other player, polarises fans. There is no denying he has a propensity to duck into tackles and initiates contact to draw high contact to himself and this can infuriate opposition supporters. It’s no secret the umpires love him and stats don’t lie. Since 2008, Selwood has topped the league in frees for in 4 seasons, was 2nd in another and 3rd in a further 2. His supporters will argue he probably deserves many frees he doesn’t get purely through the way he plays the game – and maybe they’re right. One thing for sure is Selwood is a star, a champion and he will no doubt lead Geelong from the trenches again brilliantly in 2015.
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Steve Johnson
The enigmatic Johnson is another Cat who’s had a celebrated, if not controversial career. Niggling injuries, lack of consistency and a questionable attitude and behaviour almost saw Johnson on the scrap heap at the end of 2006, with Collingwood and Essendon circling. A misdemeanour on the eve of the 2007 season saw Johnson banned by the leadership group for 6 games. From that moment on however Johnson has turned his career around.
Three flags including starring roles in the 2007 and 2011 triumphs has seen ‘Stevie J’ rocket up the league in terms of elite performers. Moving more into a midfield role has seen his output and consistency increase, but like any freakishly gifted footballer he’s still able to provide cameo roles up forward when required. He started 2014 in blistering form, but injuries curtailed the back half of his season. A fully fit and firing Johnson will be a nightmare for opposition coaches in 2015.
Jimmy Bartel
Mr Reliable, Mr Consistent, Mr Durable. That is Bartel. No fuss, no drama, he does a job week in week out for his coach and more often than not does it expertly. Bartel is another with a swag of honours. Three premierships, a Brownlow, a Norm Smith, he is a Geelong and an AFL champion. Barring injury or a dramatic dip in form Bartel will join the 300 club, not this year, but early in 2016 and it is an achievement he thoroughly deserves. His cool head and amazing ability to kick crucial goals when required will again be something Scott looks to from his Number 3 in 2015.
The Unsung Quartet
Corey Enright, Harry Taylor, James Kelly, Tom Lonergan
Often overshadowed by their more high profile, media savvy, highlight grabbing teammates, Geelong would be nowhere without the reliable services of Enright, Taylor, Kelly and Lonergan. The quartet have almost 850 games of experience between them and this is important given the transition the club will face in the next year or two. Enright will reach 300 games in 2015, Taylor is the games most effective ‘swing man’, Kelly provides the midfield grunt, yet does it with class and Lonergan often keeps the games most dangerous forwards quiet. Yet again, like in so many years past, the fortunes of the Cats this season rest with these warriors.
The Bolter
Rhys Stanley
As with all trades and draft selections it won’t be for another few years where we’ll know who’s won out with the somewhat surprising decision that saw promising young tall Rhys Stanley depart St.Kilda for Geelong. The Saints sent pick 60 and Stanley to Geelong in exchange for pick 21. From the outside it seems a bizarre decision by St.Kilda to invest so much time into Stanley, only to give him his marching orders arguably before he is even due to peak. He showed promise but never really took off at the Saints. In a new environment, surrounded by experienced, demanding players Stanley might be the surprise packet of the AFL in 2015. He is quick, athletic, can mark and is versatile and at just 23 has the best ahead of him.
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Under The Pump
Billie Smedts
It might be slightly unfair to label a kid of 22 years as under the pump, but it’s hard to argue that Smedts isn’t just that entering the 2015 season. After managing 14 and 13 games in his first two seasons in the system Smedts was in and out of the side in 2014 managing just 6 games. The arrival of Caddy, plus the emergence of Murdoch, Guthrie, Thurlow and Horlin-Smith and the expected improvement from Bews, puts Smedts in a real fight for a spot in the side. His pre-season form will be crucial.
Where They’ll Struggle
The ruck still looks a concern for Geelong this season. Whilst the combination of Hamish McIntosh and Dawson Simpson were serviceable last season they didn’t exactly set the world on fire and quite often one or the other would be a late withdrawl, indicating that not even the coaching staff know who their preferred option is. The forgotten Nathan Vardy may be an option, but he too is prone to injury.
Predicted Round 1 Team
B: Jared Rivers, Tom Lonergan, Corey Enright
HB: Andrew Mackie, Harry Taylor, Mark Blicavs
C: Mitch Duncan, Joel Selwood, Steven Motlop
HF: Jimmy Bartel, Mitch Clark (new), Jordan Murdoch
F: Rhys Stanley (new), Tom Hawkins, Josh Caddy
R: Dawson Simpson, Steve Johnson, Matthew Stokes
IC: James Kelly, Hamish McIntosh, Cameron Guthrie, George Horlin-Smith
The Draw
The fixture men haven’t missed Geelong this season. Return matches against Sydney, Collingwood, Hawthorn, Adelaide and Nth Melbourne is as tough as it gets. They do get a chance to launch into the season by not leaving the state in the first 6 rounds, however they face a tricky patch mid year where they’ll certainly earn the frequent flyer points with 4 interstate trips in 7 rounds. In a mini blow they’ll only play one night match at Skilled Stadium, a number below what I think they’d like.
Pencil It In
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Round 1 v Hawthorn
The big Easter Monday clash with rivals Hawthorn is always a must see
Round 6 v Collingwood
The Round 6 match up pits the Cats against Neil Balme, who’s returned to the Pies. What sort of Intel will Balme bring to Collingwood?
Round 7 v Sydney
The Swans humiliated Geelong in Round 11 2014 by 110 points. Expect the Cats to come out hellbent on revenge
Where I Think They’ll Finish
4th. Despite the concerns around age, injuries and a drop off in form the Cats are far too professional an outfit to slide too far in 2015.
Watch Out For: Chris Scott’s emotional roller coaster ride in the coaches box. Always good for a laugh.
Don’t Hold Your Breath: Or should that be remember to breathe? The Cats were involved in some absolute heart stoppers and some of the most exciting finishes in 2014. They held off a fast finishing Richmond by 5 points, needed a last minute Selwood goal to roll the Blues, came from behind deep in time on to beat Essendon, withstood a spirited Giants fight back to hang on by 7, relied on a wayward David Mundy after the siren shot at goal to beat the Dockers and beat the Blues again in another nailbiter. If matches like this continue in 2015 Cats fans will need very strong hearts!
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The Recruit: Mitch Clark
In an audacious move Geelong have thrown a lifeline to former Lion and Demon Mitch Clark. He is an interesting character Clark. Apparently desperate to return home to be with unwell relatives in WA, he was virtually signed, sealed and delivered to the Dockers during 2011 trade week. However, an 11th hour offer from Melbourne was received and surprisingly accepted by Clark throwing into question the strength of his desire to move home. Fremantle insiders at the time refused to match Melbourne’s offer thinking it was a big risk. So it proved for the Dees as Clark succumbed to injury and ultimately announced his retirement from football due to suffering from depression. Seemingly on the right track again Clark signalled his intention to return to the AFL and Geelong have taken the punt. It would leave a sour taste in the mouth of Melbourne but let’s hope Clark can revisit his best form and fulfil his exciting potential.
The Greatest Challenge: Maintaining the outstanding level of consistency Geelong has achieved in the past 8 years will undoubtedly be the greatest challenge. Since 2007 the Cats have won a remarkable 156 games and lost just 41, picking up 3 flags along the way. The challenge will be can the Cats somehow squeeze out another premiership tilt before the veterans retire?
Ladder Position: 4th