I’d like to welcome you all into the mind of fantasy football madness. I’ve played in so many leagues over the past decade that it’s only a matter of time before Pete and Ruxin from The League show up at my door asking for tips. Seriously though, before I continue to toot my own horn, I should mention the fact that my “League Champ” per season average is FAR lower than anyone claiming to be a Fantasy Football guru would ever own up to. However, my take on wins and losses isn’t as black and white as most. Be honest, how many times have you casually strolled into the second week of playoffs, after a first-round bye, just to watch your juggernaut of a squad lay an egg and catch the quick L to a dumpy five or six seed?
How many of you have played in the office league with Cindy from accounting? Cindy, who has four young children at home, and coffee stains on her blouse? Yeah, you know exactly who Cindy is. Perhaps your Cindy is named Mary, or Kate, but the results were probably the same. Cindy auto-drafted her team because she just didn’t have time to draft, or she simply just did not care. After all, league fees were only $20 and Cindy joined the league just to fit in around the office during the season. Well, now it’s week 12, and Cindy’s auto-draft roster is kicking ass and taking names. Am I right? Who hasn’t been in this boat before?
The point I’m trying to make is this. It doesn’t take an incredibly knowledgeable manager to draft the winning team, and it certainly doesn’t take a naïve first-timer to bomb and end up dead last. Sometimes the draft just doesn’t go your way. This can be due to a number of different uncertainties. Your draft position is important. Don’t listen to the guy who claims that he doesn’t care where he drafts from. He is a liar. Can you win if you draft from the last spot, or even from the middle of the pack? Absolutely, but the fact remains that some people adapt better to certain positions within a fantasy draft. For instance, maybe you’ve played in eight fantasy football leagues, and by some stroke of great luck, you’ve always drafted inside the top 5.
You will NEVER understand just how fortunate you have been in your fantasy career until you drop into the bottom three or four spots. By the mid-way point in the first round, whether you realize it or not, the talent has dropped off of a cliff. Now, that doesn’t mean that there won’t be break-out guys later down the road, but let’s face it, when AP, Foster, Rice, Rodgers, Brees and Megatron are gone, your options begin to dry up a tad bit. That, folks, is precisely why you’re listening to what I’m saying right now. It’s because you believe that I can give you some kind of edge. Truth be told, maybe I can, maybe I can’t. The real way to win your fantasy league is to end up lucky.
Let’s dive into my next reason why you can be the most knowledgeable player in your league, yet still not grab the right guys. Perhaps you have some sort of plan of attack in this year’s draft. You plan to draft an RB in the first round (no matter what), a QB in the second round (no matter what) and then another RB in the third round. This has become your approach, and NO MATTER WHAT, you will not be swayed off course. Welp, kiddo, you just made your first mistake. Don’t enter a draft with a closed mind. This will get you nowhere. You MUST adapt to the goings of the draft, and each draft will move differently from the previous one you did. The mechanic changes based on who you play with.
The people in your draft are the next big obstacle.
Seth from Colorado has joined your public league. Seth has no idea what he’s doing, and he’s just drafting names that he recognizes. Seth has just taken Peyton Manning 1st overall. This has just effected your draft. Not because you were ready to waste your 6th overall pick on Manning, but because you knew from extensive work in mock drafts, that you could land Manning mid-way through the second round. This is the part where you ask yourself “Why? Why did Seth from Colorado just take Peyton Manning with the 1st overall pick”. It’s simple, really. Seth did that because Seth is just having fun. If you’re a serious Fantasy Football player, do yourself a favor, and stay away from public leagues. Also, please don’t bet your house on what happened in the public mock you did last night. These mocks rarely yield the same outcome as a real draft. People get hammered and go into those things simply to mess with serious players like yourself.
So, I take it you’re ready to draft? I’m going to give you a list of my top 20 running backs to grab in your 2013 NFL Fantasy Football draft. Please don’t send me hate mail if these picks do not work. Or do send me hate mail, either way. This is based off of standard scoring leagues. No PPR stuff.
Honorable Mentions: Lamar Miller (MIA), David Wilson (NYG), Montee Ball (DEN)
#20: Darren Sproles (NO)
#19: DeMarco Murray (DAL)
#18: Reggie Bush (DET)
#17: Darren McFadden (OAK)
#16: Frank Gore (SF)
#15: Steven Jackson (ATL)
#14: Maurice Jones-Drew (JAC)
#13: Matt Forte (CHI)
#12: Chris Johnson (TEN)
#11: Stevan Ridley (NE)
Now for the Top 10:
#10: Alfred Morris (WAS), 2012 stats- 1,613 rushing yards with 13 Touchdowns:
It doesn’t get much more “from out of nowhere” than Alfred Morris in 2012. The 6th-round rookie from Florida Atlantic took the league by storm, finishing with the second most rushing yards last season, behind Adrian Peterson. Many “experts” will warn you of the Sophomore slump, but I’m looking at Morris to continue to benefit from the attention Robert Griffin III will continue to receive in 2013.
#9: Trent Richardson (CLE), 2012 stats- 950 rushing yards with 11 Touchdowns:
I expect Richardson to follow up a pretty nice rookie campaign with a pretty dynamic Sophomore season. While he failed to break to 1,000 rushing threshold in 2012, Richardson did manage to break double-digit rushing TD’s, which totally made up for the lack of yards. Trent has to stay healthy, but the fact that he does his work in so many ways gives us much to hope for. Trent caught 51 passes last season, for almost 400 yards. While the catches won’t help you in a standard league, 400 yards will still give you 40 extra points towards your total goal, compared to the aforementioned Morris (ranked #10), who only amassed 77 receiving yards last season.
#8: Doug Martin (TB), 2012 stats- 1,454 rushing yards with 11 Touchdowns:
By now you’re starting to realize just how skeptical I am of young running backs. Perhaps it’s because Martin has the dumbest nickname in sports, or maybe it’s because I just get a little too cautious of guys who break-out so early. I could be wrong, but I’d rather go with what I trust, rather than base a top 5 pick on a guy with such a small sample size. It’s not that I think Martin will falter this season, but I just believe that being wary is the play here. That’s why I have Martin at #8, versus most “experts” who rank him inside the top 5 (overall).
#7: LeSean McCoy (PHI), 2012 stats- 840 rushing yards with 2 Touchdowns:
Let’s be honest. McCoy was less than impressive in 2012. Racking up less than 900 rushing yards, and only managing 2 TD’s on the ground is miserable. BUT, I just see too much talent to keep this guy from getting his in 2013. Shady should get back into top form this season, and the added threat of what he can do in the passing game makes him dangerous in any league. Close to 400 receiving yards and 3 receving TD’s in 2012, despite the poor season, gives owners hope that McCoy will bounce back. He’ll also benefit from Chip Kelly’s fast-paced system, and become a fantasy beast once again.
#6: C.J. Spiller (BUF), 2012 stats- 1,244 rushing yards with 6 Touchdowns:
Explosive.. well-rounded.. NASTY.. underutilized.. Yep, all four of those ways to describe Spiller would be accurate. This guy averages 6 yards per carry (tied with Adrian Peterson for tops in the league), yet only manages to carry the ball 207 times last season, which is 147 less times than AP did. Something just doesn’t add up here.. oh wait.. Chan Gailey was running the show in Buffalo. That explains it. Chan is toast, and perhaps Spiller will finally be used the way he’s meant to be used, which is 20+ times per game.
#5: Jamaal Charles (KC), 2012 stats- 1,509 rushing yards with 5 Touchdowns:
Jamaal Charles came off ACL surgery and was completely misused by the Chiefs in 2012, yet managed to compile 1,745 yards from scrimmage. The one concern that owners may have is that new head coach Andy Reid has been known to pass a bit much, but if Charles can manage over 1,500 rushing yards in Romeo Crennel’s system, then he can manage to get his with Reid. I’d look for his TD’s to increase as well, and knowing Reid’s offense, there will be plenty of opportunities for Charles to score the football in 2013.
#4: Ray Rice (BAL), 2012 stats- 1,143 rushing yards with 9 Touchdowns:
Rice rushed for 1,100+ yards last season and tacked on close to 500 more catching the ball. With some personnel changes for the reigning Super Bowl champs, I expect that Rice’s role within the offense, both rushing and receiving, to increase in 2013. Furthermore, Rice has become a “safe option” in the first round of drafts, which plays a far bigger role than most would admit to. Having a guy who you trust, as your 1st pick is a highly underrated quality in this game.
#3: Marshawn Lynch (SEA), 2012 stats- 1,590 with 11 Touchdowns:
What can I tell you about Beast Mode besides the fact that he won people fantasy championships last season? Lynch went HAM during the fantasy playoffs, assuming weeks 14, 15 and 16 are your league’s playoffs (they should be!). Lynch went in for 352 rushing yards, and 6 total Touchdowns in that span. Week 16 (or championship week for most) Lynch rushed for 111 yards and scored 2 TD’s… against the 49ers. The ability to provide your team with what it needs to win against the toughest of opponents is enough to keep me sold on him in 2013.
#2: Arian Foster (HOU), 2012 stats- 1,424 rushing yards with 15 Touchdowns:
You know what scoring the most rushing TD’s (15) as a running back gets you? It get’s you ranked as the 2nd best fantasy RB option, behind the freak of nature that is AP. Foster is a solid choice if Peterson is off the board, which means that you either have the 2nd overall pick in your draft, or you’re playing in that league with Seth from Colorado. Foster brings your team a stable superstar and a reliable 15-20 fantasy points per week. I sleep better at night when I know Foster is going to get me at least 15 points on Sunday morning. He’s a comfort blanket for fantasy owners.
#1: Adrian Peterson (MIN), 2012 stats- 2,097 rushing yards with 12 Touchdowns:
One thing I can tell you about Peterson, is that he is one of two players in the National Football League who are not human. The other being Calvin Johnson of the Detroit Lions, but since we’re talking running backs, we’re talking AP, the undisputed beast of the running back ranks. Over 2,000 rushing yards and double-digit rushing TD’s is enough for me to know that I want this guy on my roster. Even if my team name is “Rice Rice Baby”. Peterson will likely be first off the board in any league you participate in, so keep your fingers crossed and hope you land the first pick!
By: Andy Flint- Sports-Kings Co-Founder