What does history tell us?
When it comes to the World Snooker Championship, the main characteristic in terms of betting the last couple of years has been how open it has been. Strange as it may seem, the current Crucible dominance enjoyed by Ronnie O’Sullivan has taken the bookies largely by surprise, only this year do we find them making him the strongest favourite since Stephen Hendry back in 1996 to win the big one and if you read on, there are reasons he might not be too happy about it.
When you look back at the history books you find that the bookies have given remarkably few players the accolade of Championship Favourite as the years have passed. The 80′s were predictably dominated by The Nugget, who started favourite for the championship every year from 1981 to 1989. That honour/pressure then reverted to Stephen Hendry, whose 90′s titles mostly justified favouritism, though he did win one when not the strongest fancy in the field.
It was then the turn of O’Sullivan to assume the mantle of the man the bookies both loved and feared, he started favourite for the title 9 times between the years 2000 and 2009, since when we’ve seen other names start as the bookies one to beat.
So how have they got on? Well, after painstaking research I think I have managed to capture every favourite since 1981, the year a red-hot, red-haired favourite started his 80′s reign….
1981 – Steve Davis (Winner). Despite never having won the World Championship, Davis came into the sport’s main event as a hot favourite. He was to justify the bookies faith in him, beating Doug Mountjoy in the final after seeing off his main challenger that year, reigning champion Cliff Thorburn, in the semi-finals.
1982 – Steve Davis (1st Round Loser). This was the first year that the championship adopted its current format of 32 players in Round 1, this format change resulted in the biggest shock of the decade. Davis, an odds-on favourite, suffering the ‘Curse of the Crucible’ and losing first round 10-1 to Tony Knowles. Alex Higgins picked up the trophy in one of the sports most memorable championships.
1983 and 1984 – Steve Davis (Winner/Winner). The bookies love affair with Davis continued as he put the Knowles defeat out of his mind to win the championship and almost everything else for next two years. He had just one close match in ’83 against Dennis Taylor but other than that dominated the tournament, winning the final with a session to spare. 1984 wasn’t such a procession and saw Jimmy White nearly carry off a great final comeback, but Davis prevailed 18-16 in the first of Jimmy’s many final defeats.
1985 and 1986 – Steve Davis (Runner Up/Runner Up). Davis was still starting World Championships as very short priced (in ’85 he was odds-on) favourite but his backers suffered a temporary disruption to normal service in the period that Steve was basically winning almost everything else, re-writing the record books and making stacks for him and his manager Barry Hearn. Defeats at the hands of Dennis Taylor and rank 150/1 outsider Joe Johnson meant he’d failed twice more to justify the bookies faith in him, but at least his loss to Dennis in that famous final did inspire a great verse of Snooker Loopy. Every cloud….
1987, 1988, 1989 – Steve Davis (Winner/Winner/Winner). Despite what went before, the bookies and nearly everyone else on the planet knew we hadn’t seen the end of Davis. He remained short priced favourite and his magnificent treble meant he was the first player of the Crucible era to win three on the spin. Final wins over Johnson who remains the man who has come closest to breaking the first time champion Crucible Curse (2 frames ahead of Ken Doherty), Terry Griffiths and an absolute steamroller job on John Parrott cemented his place as the king of 80′s snooker. But the bookies were sensing this might be his swansong…..
1990 – Stephen Hendry (Winner). Hendry started the 1990 Championship as UK and Masters Champion, having beaten Davis over the longer distance in the UK Final. The bookies had once again called it correctly and young Stephen’s first title was secured, the final saw a win over his early 1990′s sparring partner, the luckless Jimmy White.
Hendry was usually pretty reliable, with the odd blip.
1991 – Stephen Hendry (Quarter-Finalist). The Curse of the Crucible? Not on your nelly, the bookies laughed off this idea by making winning-machine Hendry a firm favourite to retain his title. But dark forces were at work as Brummie Biker Steve James gunned down Hendry in the Quarter Finals. Scouser John Parrott was to take the title defeating Jimmy White in the final.
1992-1996 – Stephen Hendry (Winner, Winner, Winner, Winner, Winner). There’s not really much more to add to that is there? Starts hot favourite every year and wins five on the bounce, beating Jimmy a further 3 times (don’t mention 1994) as well as Nigel Bond and Peter Ebdon. This was truly a period of pure dominance, the like of which we may never see again?
1997 – Stephen Hendry (Runner-Up). Hendry’s quest for a six-timer may have been what the bookies thought would happen, but the ever-popular and jovial Ken Doherty had other ideas and defied the odds to prevail 18-12 to let Stephen know for the first time what it felt like to be the runner-up.
1998 – Stephen Hendry (1st Round Loser). Hendry became only the second bookies favourite ever to lose in Round 1, his match up against Jimmy White giving Jimmy the chance to shine one last time against his old foe. He couldn’t sustain the form and it was John Higgins who won his first world title and became instantly many people’s idea of the next man in line to dominate snooker, beating the valiant reigning champion Doherty in the final.
1999 – John Higgins (Losing Semi-Finalist). Holder of the UK Championship and the Masters as well as defending champion, Higgins was surely the one to break the Crucible Curse? But it wasn’t to be as Hendry returned to reclaim the rights to the decade that belonged to him, for once not as the bookies main man, he defeated Mark Williams to claim his record-breaking seventh title.
2000 – Ronnie O’Sullivan (1st Round Loser). A new name at the top of the bookies list was now materialising. But Ronnie O’Sullivan, a marginal favourite in an open betting heat which also saw Higgins, Williams and Hendry well backed was beaten first round. Who by you may ask? Snookerbacker Classic Champion 2013, David Gray, that’s who. It was Welshman Mark Williams who was to claim his first World Championship with a win over fellow Taffy Matthew Stevens.
2001 – Ronnie O’Sullivan (Winner) / John Higgins (Runner-Up) – Joint Favourites. The bookies couldn’t split them and in the end only four frames could. O’Sullivan taking his first World Championship after his two closest contemporaries Higgins and Williams. Williams himself falling foul of the old Crucible Curse, losing in the second round to Joe Swail.
2002 – Ronnie O’Sullivan (Losing Semi-Finalist). Those bookies never learn do they? The Crucible Curse is real and Ronnie proved that again in 2002. He lost in the semi-finals to Hendry, who reached an incredible ninth world final. He couldn’t make it a historic Hendry the Eighth though and lost to Peter Ebdon in a dramatic decider to avenge his final defeat of 1996. Stephen’s time in the final was now up.
2003 – 2007 – Ronnie O’Sullivan (1st Round Loser/Winner/Losing Quarter Finalist/ Losing Semi-Finalist/Losing Quarter Finalist). Through the years Ronnie has proved himself the most prolific, least successful favourite in Crucible history. No other player has failed to justify favouritism more times than him. Only once in this five year sequence did he justify the punter’s confidence, making him, at least until recently, someone who was proving very costly to back. Perhaps then, the shift in emphasis this year may give his rivals some hope? The other four champions in these years were Williams with his second, qualifier and big outsider Shaun Murphy, another outsider Graeme Dott and John Higgins with his second title in 2007 after almost a decade’s wait.
2008 – John Higgins (Round 2 Loser). Higgins failed to justify the renewed faith the bookies put in him in 2008 and instead, Ronnie, now not quite the warm order he had been the previous 8 years was to claim his third crown, defeating Ali Carter in a one-sided final, this continued a fairly bad run for favourites during the Noughties.
2009 – Ronnie O’Sullivan (Round 2 Loser). This was the last year until now that Ronnie started clear favourite, he lost early on again, this time in an epic match against Mark Allen. This means that of the nine times Ronnie has started Crucible favourite with the bookies, he has only won the title twice. Perhaps he prefers being the underdog? John Higgins claimed the title a third time to draw level with O’Sullivan in championship wins.
Rocked Higgins in 2010.
2010 – John Higgins (Round 2 Loser). This was the year which saw Neil Robertson storm to victory and the pre-tournament favourite and defending champion get himself into something of a pickle with the newspapers. Steve Davis time-travelled in a DeLorean into this year from the 80′s to claim Higgins’ scalp in Round 2, which still remains an amazing Crucible tale. Robertson beat Graeme Dott in a marathon final, played unfortunately under something of a cloud in dark days for the sport. But in brighter news, his 14/1 triumph paid for a large chunk of mine and Mrs SB’s wedding making him a firm favourite of ours, even if he wasn’t with the bookies.
2011 – John Higgins (Winner). It was an altogether different Higgins who entered the arena in 2011, having returned from his ban and after the loss of his father he had looked in superb form with a new found determination and purpose to his game. From the off he looked like justifying the bookie’s faith in him and he duly did in true Higgins style, breaking the pattern of losing favourites along the way and beating a new kid on the block, Judd Trump, in the final. He now led Ronnie 4-3 in title wins in their own personal battle.
2012 – Judd Trump (Round 2 Loser). Judd’s Crucible performance the previous year and the fanfare which surrounded him was enough to convince the bookies that he should start favourite marginally ahead of Mark Selby, Neil Robertson, John Higgins and Ronnie O’Sullivan. O’Sullivan however proved too good for the field and under the influence of Dr Steve Peters looked a different player to the unreliable and inconsistent one of the previous decade or so. Bear in mind however that he wasn’t favourite to win or widely fancied with many citing his ability to stay focused for the full duration of the tournament and after his triumph, clearly exhausted, he vowed to have a lot of time off, a promise he was to keep. He once again beat Ali Carter in the final.
2013 – Mark Selby / Neil Robertson / Judd Trump (Round 2 Loser/Round 1 Loser/Losing Semi-Finalist). O’Sullivan’s now legendary return to the baize after a season off saw him take his fifth title largely untroubled and never headed in any match, this also meant he overtook Higgins again in their own game of world championship leapfrog. He was available as long as 9/1 a few weeks before the tournament and many claimed he had ‘no chance’ of simply returning after a year off and winning. How different to what people are saying this year as he attempts to become the only player since Davis and Hendry to win three on the trot. Perhaps he even has the Hendry dominance of the 90′s in his mind?
So, the figures as they stand are since 1981:
Winning Favourites (Including Joint Favourites): 14
Losing Favourites (Including Joint Favourites): 20
Most Successful Favourites: Steve Davis (6 out of 9) and Stephen Hendry (6 out of 9).
Least Successful Favourite: Ronnie O’Sullivan (2 out of 9).
Most Successful Non-Favourite: Ronnie O’Sullivan and John Higgins (both 3 times winner when not favourites)
Clear Favourites who have lost in Round 1: Ronnie O’Sullivan (twice), Stephen Hendry (once), Steve Davis (once).
It remains to be seen whether Ronnie can win as favourite this time around, but if you believe in such things the omens aren’t particularly good. He has only ever justified favouritism at the bookies twice from nine attempts. Contrast this with Davis and Hendry who each won the title six times in their nine times under the favourites spotlight.
If other players, pundits, bloggers or indeed fellow punters are looking for some suggestion or clue that O’Sullivan won’t win it this year, this is the kind of thing to spend hours boring people in the pub with, convincing them that Ronnie isn’t the nailed on certainty so many people believe him to be this year.
So, is Ronnie a reluctant favourite or will the ‘New Improved Ronnie’ simply breeze through again for his followers? Is he bothered? Does he know? Will he feel a different kind of pressure this year as the man expected to win?