NOVANEWS
Introduction
On October 8, 2005, at 8:50 a.m. local time, a magnitude Mw = 7.6 earthquake struck the
Himalayan region of northern Pakistan and Kashmir. The earthquake epicenter was located
approximately 9 km north northeast of the city of Muzaffarabad, the capital of the Pakistani-
administered part of Kashmir, known as Azad Jammu Kashmir (AJK).
The Pakistani government’s official death toll as of November 2005 stood at 87,350, although it
is estimated that the death toll could reach over 100,000. Approximately 38,000 were injured and
over 3.5 million rendered homeless. According to government figures, 19,000 children died in
the earthquake, most of them in widespread collapses of school buildings. The earthquake
affected more than 500,000 families. In addition, approximately 250,000 farm animals died due
to collapse of stone barns, and more than 500,000 large animals required immediate shelter from
the harsh winter.
It is estimated that more than 780,000 buildings were either destroyed or damaged beyond repair,
and many more were rendered unusable for extended periods of time. Out of these,
approximately 17,000 school buildings and most major hospitals close to the epicenter were
destroyed or severely dam- aged. Lifelines were adversely affected, especially the numerous vital
roads and highways that were closed by landslides and bridge failures. Several areas remained
cut off via land routes even three months after the main event. Power, water supply, and
telecommunication services were down for varying lengths of time, although in most areas
services were restored within a few weeks.
Massive landsliding was a particular feature of this event. A very dense, high-frequency band of
landslides was triggered along the fault rupture trace in the midslope areas; however, it quickly
dissipated with distance away from the fault rupture zone. Almost all landslides were shallow,
disaggregated slides, with two of them larger than 0.1 km2. Due to the generally arid landscape,
liquefaction was not observed or reported by others.
Transportation:
Road closures completely cut off land access to the Jhelum, Neelum, and Kaghan alleys.
Landslides were the predominant cause of the closures. The problem of slope failures along road
cuts was exacerbated by a road-building process that uses explosives in weak structures and cuts
into toes of pre-existing landslides. Many road closures were due to shallow disaggregated slides
and rock falls that rarely caused the complete loss of the roadway bench. However, the unstable
nature of the debris and the presence of disrupted rock masses along the slopes above the
roadway created ongoing challenges in clearing and opening the roads.
The problem of road closures was so significant that the army dedicated 12 engineer battalions to
open roads. Due to the army’s extensive experience with road building, and the availability of
skilled builders in the mountain communities after many years of building the Karakoram
Highway, the opening and reconstruction of roads was handled efficiently. At the time of the
reconnaissance, the Jhelum ValleyRoad, the Kaghan Valley Road, and the Karakuram Highway
had been cleared and opened. The Neelum Valley Road, the only other major road in the affected
area, had only a 5-km stretch remaining to be cleared. While most major roads have been
reopened, there is a vast network of tertiary roads serving the mountain community in the higher
elevations. Many of these roads remain closed, cutting off populations that did not even
experience the direct effects of the earthquake and hampering relief efforts.
Several bridges were damaged, especially within the Jhelum Valley and in Balakot.
Disaster time
Ikram Sehgal
Last Saturday catastrophe came to Pakistan, the country was not prepared for it! Calamities
always come as an unpleasant surprise.
At 8.55 am on Saturday Oct 8, 2005 the region from Kabul in the west to New Delhi in the
east was severely rocked. Cities as far away as Dhaka felt some tremors, the shocks went
on until 9:05 am. Epicentered 95 kms northeast of Islamabad, the most powerful
earthquake to hit this region in a 100 years was recorded at 7.6 on the Richter Scale, the
main focus of death and destruction targeting northern Pakistan in a wide swath from
Peshawar to Azad Kashmir. Media attention riveted the first morning on rescue efforts
directed at the two collapsed blocks of “Margalla Towers” in Islamabad’s posh F-10 sector,
diverting attention from the massive human and material devastation in Azad Kashmir,
Kaghan and Kohistan valleys till hours later. With electricity and telephones lines down
reports about a greater disaster in the mountains came in patches, eg 30% houses
collapsed in Mansehra, 60% in Muzaffarabad, 80% in Rawalakot and Balakot etc, entire
villages perched on the hillsides disappearing in mudslides. In the next 24 hours 40
aftershocks (of which only 17-18 were perceptible) added to the panic.
Beginning Saturday afternoon bad news starting coming in droves from all over and kept
coming, from Peshawar, Mansehra, Garhi Habibullah, Abbottabad and even Lahore, etc.
Widespread devastation was reported from Kaghan, Shinkiari, Shangla, Batal, Gul Mera,
Ughi, Naran and other places not commonplace for the public. Give the government (or
rather the Pakistan Army) credit. From a standing start, the Army provided the core of the
relief mechanism. Supported by PAF the Army mobilised its entire helicopter fleet to carry
out extensive reconnaissance of the area for damage estimation, providing quick relief
wherever possible. The silver lining was the presence of the Army, itself losing over 200
dead and 400 injured, all over the mountains and valleys of Kashmir, engaged in intensive
relief work within hours, providing helicopters, engineers, doctors, manpower etc. For many
of those trapped under the debris of collapsing houses it may have been too late.
The critical Karokoram Highway (KKH) remains blocked due to landslides in many places
along its entire 600 kms length. So is the main road to Muzaffarabad. However some
alternate roads have been cleared, evacuating casualties to nearest hospitals and providing
supplies is almost totally dependent upon helicopters. Limited by numbers in coping with
the magnitude of the devastation, Army Aviation helicopters did magnificent work, keeping
the relief momentum going. Our MI-8s and MI-17s are not enough to cope with such a
catastrophe. As a former helicopter pilot (Alouette-3) with extensive mountain area casualty
evacuation and forward dumping experience in Azad Kashmir, Northern Areas and Sinkiang
Province of China, my heart goes out for the helicopter crews. Chopper flying in such
conditions takes its toll. The wear and tear on the helicopter and crews must be monitored
closely, they will push themselves beyond normal endurance limits, they should not write
cheques neither their body nor their equipment can cash. But I say this with pride that in
the face of this catastrophe our “eagles” will not listen and I salute them for it! During
cyclone relief operations in East Pakistan in 1970 (when only two MI-8s and two Alouette-3
took the load), then Col (later Maj Gen) Nasirullah Khan Babar pushed us (and himself) to
extreme limits. He and Maj (later Brig) Tirmizi put in as many flying hours as any of us
during the day, than attended daily “Relief Coordination Conferences” till late at night!
Maj Gen Shaukat Sultan, Director General (DG) Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR)
initially confirmed 18000 dead and over 41000 injured. With villages perched precariously
on sides of the mountains, and the timing (about 9 am) during Ramazan, one fears that this
will be revised upwards many times over, it could well be beyond 60000 dead, a mind-
boggling 90000 to 100000, even more. Almost all my company employees (security and
courier personnel) from Azad Kashmir, Kaghan and Kohistan valleys lost some loved ones,
my driver Ashraf rushing home to Muzaffarabad on hearing about the sad demise of his
mother. Col (Retd) Qayyum, our Group Zonal Head for Rawalakot, with whom I could only
get through on 11 Oct, lost 9 in his immediate vicinity, 3 of his children were buried under
the debris but survived. Throughout the mountains, this human tragedy will be played out
from town to town, entire villages have disappeared. A blinding thunderstorm the same
night made the roads impossible and turned the rubble into mudslides.
Let’s provide disaster relief and restore basic services of electricity, water, etc, we can
discuss shortcomings later. No government can really plan for the worst. The first few days
are always chaotic and haphazard. Give the government credit at least for mobilising relief
swiftly. Pervez Musharraf led from the front, showing the way by visiting nearly all disaster
areas and many hospitals. The “Disaster Relief Cell” in the PM’s House will certainly do good
but will it be enough? The challenge is to create organization from haphazard, disjointed
effort, to create clean orderly flowlines from chaos. The tough mountain terrain means the
best cannot be good enough.
The need is to set up a permanent Disaster Management Organisation, the US has its FEMA
(Federal Emergency Management Agency). Call it anything else here but let’s get on with it.
Quoting my article “Coping with disaster” written only a month ago to the day on
September 8 after Hurricane “Katrina” had hit the US, “whether it comes with a warning or
is a surprise, coping with any kind of disaster, whether natural or man-made, does not differ
in essentials. Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) are common for both. First and
foremost we must pre-position supplies, particularly potable water, meals ready to eat
(MRE), medical requisites, blankets, tents, etc. One may include containerised field
ambulance units ready to match up with earmarked doctors. For mass evacuation, vehicles
must be earmarked as well as possible destinations. Flooding being commonplace in most
disasters, collapsible flat-bottom boats with outboard motors and submersible generators
and pumps should also be stored. Lightly armed troops trained to handle both disaster relief
and law and order must be earmarked, carrying only vitally necessary equipment to avoid
being over-burdened. Civilian personnel to supervise and administer relief efforts, medical
staff, communications personnel, engineers with heavy earth-moving equipment and
cranes, as well as containerised communication units must be clearly earmarked. “Disaster
Mobilisation Plans” as well as “Disaster Relief Plans” for each area have to be coordinated
and dovetailed with Provincial and Federal Plans. Sufficient Reserve Funds, activated only
during an emergency, must be kept aside”, unquote. This is not nuclear science, it is simple
commonsense!
The disaster relief must be kept apolitical, to quote, “the command structure should flow
directly from the President, a permanent “Crisis Management Agency” being established
under the Chairman Joint Services Committee (CJSC) for effective coordination of ground,
air and naval resources in support of the effort of the civil administration. The Ministry of
Finance must devise a Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) to address post-disaster issues.
People will be without jobs, without food and shelter, their children will be without schools,
continuing medical care will be needed and rehabilitation thereof, etc, etc. The short,
medium and long-term economic consequences and remedial measures thereof have to be
worked out, each disaster will have different dynamics”, unquote.
Are we in Pakistan up to it or will we resort to what we normally do, the politics of exploiting
tragedy?
The writer is a defence and political analyst