I am proud and honored to be “promoted” to take care of the Saturday & Sunday picks for Aqueduct for the winter meet. Jason Perry will be focusing on Gulfstream on Saturdays and is a must read for all Florida horseplayers. He has done a tremendous job and I hope I can follow in his footsteps by continuing to hit at my 32% rate since writing for the website.
Thank you to all that follow. You can follow me on twitter @albundypolkhigh. Good luck to all horseplayers!
Top Plays on Top:
Race 3- #6 Fortuitous Path (5/2 ML)
Race 6- #5 Malibu Action (7/5 ML)
Race 8- #4 Tommy Macho (2/1 ML)
Race 9- #7 Sheyn Vi DI Levone (5/2 ML)
Top Value Plays on Top:
Race 7- #4 Candid Desire (10/1 ML)
Top Value Plays in exotics:
Race 1- #6 Here Sir (8/1 ML)
Race 3- #1 Spartiatis (10/1 ML)
Race 5- #8 Backsideofthemoon (8/1 ML)
Race 6- #7 Moon Over a Beauty (8/1 ML)
Race 6- #1 Biavian (30/1 ML)
Race 8- #5 Turco Bravo (10/1 ML)
Race 9- #6 D’Bunnyphone (12/1 ML)
Conservative Pick 5 Play – 5,6 / 3,6,8 / 6 / 3,7,8 / 4,8 = $18
Aggressive Pick 5 Play – 5,6 / 2,3,6,8 / 1,6 / 1,2,3,5,7,8 / 3,4,8 = $144
Race 1- 5-6-3
I was tempted to take #6 Here Sir on top at his generous 8-1 ML. Something tells me he will be half that price at post time. Instead, I will take the likely favorite and runner most likely to win #5 Smiling John on top. Our top pick was taken out of his game early last time out and lost at 3-5. Before that, he was able to close nicely into a speed biased track to a nice horse in Alex the Terror. “John” should sit right off of Here Sir and make one move to go by him late. He is a possible single in your Pick 5, but I have to go two deep here. The aforementioned #6 Here Sir should be alone on the lead and take this group as long as he can around the track. If they do not bother him early, he might get brave and wire the field. His race three back shows that he loves an off track. If the track is still less than fast, you have to upgrade our second choice. He has raced against better and will be my backup in the Pick 5. #3 Jroc will fill out our trifecta.
Conservative Pick 4 Play – 3,6,8 / 6 / 3,7,8 / 4,8 = $9
Aggressive Pick 4 Play – 2,3,6,8 / 1,6 / 1,2,3,5,7,8 / 3,4,8 = $72
Race 2 – 6-8-3
Despite this race being wide-open, I am going to side with the morning line favorite #6 Awesome Gent. This second-time starter for Todd Pletcher took a ton of money in his opener and has a right to improve second time out after getting out of the gate slow, but then showing he could do a bit of running in the middle of the race before tiring. He lost to a horse that has already run in stakes company. This is our top pick, but I suggest spreading in this leg. #8 Jet Black is making his first start for trainer Gary Sciacca. Although this barn is usually not strong with firsters, it is interesting that Irad Ortiz is signed on as jockey. The works have been consistent and decent in the mornings and worth a shot in the exotics. Throw out Ortiz at your own risk. #3 Indian Soldier is going turf-to-dirt after setting the pace and fading first time out. We will forgive that race, as his pedigree suggests that he will be more successful on the dirt. Horses showing speed on turf and going to dirt have been very successful at Aqueduct early in the meet. #2 Unstoppable is an interesting firster for Michael Husion. He may need a race, but is a horse to think about later in the meet.
Race 3- 6-1-8
#6 Fortuitous Path will be our top pick having a huge class edge on the rest of the field. Despite being only 1 for 8, he has had plenty of excuses in his losses, including running against biased tracks and getting “beat up” in the beginning of races. I also cannot ignore the huge jockey change from Silvera to Irad Ortiz. Usually when trainer Rudy Rodriguez calls on Irad it is a profitable sign. To round out the exotics I like a couple of horses coming off long layoffs. #1 Spartiatis finished behind #2 Between the Lines last time out, but that was after a near year layoff. He clearly needed that race and has a right to improve off of that effort. The projected fast pace will also help this closers late foot. #8 Reverend Green is also coming off of a near year layoff. Trainer Bill Mott does great with horses coming off of long layoffs and this one has been training well in the morning for this race. The projected competitive pace will not help this front runner, but he has won rating before.
Conservative Pick 6 Play – 3,7,8 / 4,8 / 5 / 4,6 / 4 / 7 = $24
Aggressive Pick 6 Play – 2,3,7,8 / 3,4,8 / 5 / 4,6,9 / 4 / 6,7 = $144
Race 4- 8-7-3
This looks like it has a possibility of a strong two-year-old race. Although #3 Adventist will be the favorite, I suggest “taking a shot” with a few of the firsters that will be longer prices. #8 Biography is bred to be a bullet. This $190K purchase price is a son of Speightstown, a star sprinter that has been a very good sire in 2015. Trainer Michael Husion usually does better with second-time starters, but the price should be decent and this one has a chance to be a good one. #7 Time Will Tell is also well-bred, being the son of Malibu Moon and has done very well at Aqueduct. Trainer Jena Antonucci does not have many strong trainer angles, but does well with the “babies”. It would not surprise me if this one made it to the winners’ circle. #3 Adventist, as mentioned, will most likely be heavily bet coming from an impressive family including Isn’t He Clever. Definitely check the board and see which runners are getting early money as a clue to which are live.
Race 5 – 4-8-3
The closing leg of the Pick 5 includes a terrible favorite in #5 Wake Up in Malibu. If he wins I will not be cashing any multi-race tickets. The morning line favorite won impressively last time, but that came on a speed biased track where he was able to set the tempo and “walk” to victory. With other pace signed on here, he will not get a comfortable lead. In fact all four of his lifetime wins were suspect. Two of them came on biased tracks and the other two came on off tracks. In addition, he has yet to win around two turns on dirt. He is a big play against for me. #4 Sioux has clearly faced better and is the only stakes winner in the bunch. He should sit just off of the favorite and pounce around the turn. If he should falter #8 Backsideofthemoon is an interesting price play. Last time out he finished an impressive third at 21-1, despite racing the entirety of the race on a dead rail. If #4 & #5 set a fast pace, he can pick up the pieces at a big price. #3 Irish Cat is hard to trust, but must include in the multi-race tickets. He has not won on a fast track and has not exactly been a consistent horse. He can win with his “A” race.
Pick 4 Conservative Play – 5 / 4,6,9 / 4 / 6,7 = $3
Pick 4 Aggressive Play – 5 / ALL / ALL / 7 = $31.50
Race 6- 5-7-1
#5 Malibu Action looks like a “lock” and a possible single in the multi-race bets. He just lost by a nose first- time out to a next-out stakes winner in Lazarus Project. Should be able to handle these. #7 Moon Over A Beauty is a nice price play at 8-1. Richard Violette does a great job with firsters and this Jockey/Trainer combo teamed up to win with a 9-1 shot on Friday. #1 Biavian is my “bomb” of the day. No, I do not think he can win, but I see no reason why he can’t make the triple and super pay huge. He should outrun his 30-1 morning line. Last time out he was able to close strongly into a speed biased track and this was after getting bumped at the start. The move from maiden claimers to the maiden special weight level shows the confidence that trainer David Cannizzo has in this tw0-year old son of star sire Uncle Mo. I have seen worse 30-1 ML shots and will be keying him in triples and supers underneath with our favorite.
Race 7- 4-6-9
This race screams “meltdown” with plenty of horses that like to run on the lead. #2 Frisky Magician, #5 Cort and #9 Roman Revival should make things fast up front. Because of that likely scenario, I want a horse that can come off the pace. #4 Candid Desire has the right value and closing kick to make him our top choice. Normally I do not endorse 1 for 15 horses, but Candid Desire is the only horse with a win over this track. He has faced better recently and although he is not your most likely winner, he is well worth the 10-1 price you should get. #6 Sherifco was a vet scratch on Dec 2nd, but also has a pace advantage and can sit behind the leaders. I can make an argument to throw out his last race, which came in the slop and off a long layoff. If healthy, which is a big if, he is a main contender. #9 Roman Revival is probably the best horse in the race with the most upside, but as mentioned will be compromised by the amount of speed in the race.
Race 8- 4-5-6
#4 Tommy Macho looks like a horse that is getting better and better each time out. It is also extremely rare that jockey Javier Castellano is only signed on for one mount for the day. He has left Gulfstream Park just for this race. He will be my single in all multi-race bets as he just love this track and should put on another show. #5 Turco Bravo is an interesting price play underneath. He should sit off of the pace and can run forever. In fact, the 9-furlong distance may be too short for him. If Tommy Macho presses #6 Financial Modeling too early that could leave the door open for Turco Bravo. #6 Financial Modeling will be the most likely pace setter and can get a piece.
Race 9- 7-9-6
#7 Sheyn Vi Di Levone is not a favorite that I normally like to take on top, but I do not think this one has much to beat. Making her first start on the dirt should only help this two-year-old filly whose pedigree suggests that she should handle the dirt just fine. Trainer Michael Dilger has excellent numbers going turf- to-dirt. #9 Corinthian’s Joy is your morning line favorite after coming out of a key race the first time on dirt. Look for her to improve, but can’t I endorse her on top after being a vet scratch and a long layoff. I will try to beat her, but respect her. #6 D’Bunnyphone is a nice price play at 12-1. Despite being winless in 6 starts, this filly can improve on the stretch out and has a pace advantage over most of these. The jockey upgrade to Franco is a plus.